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How close are we to seeing electronic shifting and crank based power the standard at the Ultegra/Force level?
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Brand new bikes come with a crank based power meter and electronic shifting? And the "special order" will be if you want mechanical and non-power for basically the same price?

I know that neither is necessary, but I get the sense that more people in the "Ultegra/Force" level and up want those features if they can afford it. So lets say the manufacturing costs continue to drop...$80 more to add power to a crank, and $200 more for electronic shifting at the Ultegra/Force level. Even when you add a markup, who's going to buy a mechanical/non power bike for $2500 when the electronic/power version is $3000?

This is already the market where people are spending a little more for nice to haves. The 105/Rival market can still serve well for those just getting into riding and want ultimate value. The Ultegra/Force level is also the market who are likely to invest in a Garmin type tool to capture data.

SRAM buying Quarq a while back and releasing their "quara prime" is already a step in that direction. They are a bit behind with trickling down their electronic shifting. Shimano has good trickle down with their electronic shifting, but is only in the infant stages of releasing power meters with their cranks. I have to imagine in the near future they will meet in the middle. And the only way to compete once that happens is to lower price to the point where it gets close to the price of non power and mechanical.

Thoughts?
Last edited by: Jason N: Aug 23, 17 11:08
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Re: How close are we to seeing electronic shifting and crank based power the standard at the Ultegra/Force level? [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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We seem to be a long way from electronic shifting becoming standard at the "Ultegra Level." Right now, there's just not enough competition to Udi2. SRAM doesn't seem to have the production capacity to keep up with demand for eTap Red, FSA's K-Force WE is still vaporware, and Campagnolo seems resigned to their position as Eurocentric boutique brand. Therefore, there is zero market pressure for Shimano to make standard a feature that they're currently up-selling at (presumably) high margins.


There's a lot more competition in the power meter space, creating strong downward pressure on pricing, so it would seem that might possible happen sooner. That said, demand is far from universal. Triathletes and competitive cyclists would obviously see the value, but many non-competitive cyclists, even serious ones, probably wouldn't be all that interested.

What I could see happening is a convergence once electronic shifting really starts moving down market. When you pair electronic shifting with a power meter, you suddenly have all the ingredients for what some see as the "holy grail" of cycling; an automatic transmission system that's as mechanically efficient as current manual shifting systems.

"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"
Last edited by: gary p: Aug 23, 17 11:42
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Re: How close are we to seeing electronic shifting and crank based power the standard at the Ultegra/Force level? [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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I have Dura Ace on my tri bike and Ultegra on my road bike. For a VERY average rider, I have no problem spending money on bikes as it's my hobby and I enjoy the tech. I've got a P1 pedals and an 820 head unit, so I don't mind spending for my electronic toys. I have never come close to buying or really desiring electronic shifting. I'm not totally against it, but I just don't want to spend any extra on it as I don't see enough upside.
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Re: How close are we to seeing electronic shifting and crank based power the standard at the Ultegra/Force level? [gary p] [ In reply to ]
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I agree that electronic shifting is a little farther behind the curve...but I expect that there is still room for more adoption and price reductions in the future. How far in the future...I guess that's the question.

Cars are a good example. Your mid range car in the $25-$30k range now comes with a heck of a lot more electronics standard than it used to 10 years ago. There are less analog gauges, more cameras, infotainment or voice activated controls, and road departure and automatic braking. All without really increasing the price of that range of cars. If you told the auto dealer you wanted to save money buy forgoing all of the electronics and features that now come standard...they'd tell you...sorry...they don't make them that way anymore unless you're shopping for a true bargain car in the $15-20k range.

We aren't there yet with bikes...but will it eventually move that way?
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Re: How close are we to seeing electronic shifting and crank based power the standard at the Ultegra/Force level? [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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I'd guess 5 years. Ultegra Di2 is still almost double the price of its mechanical counterpart. I think when we see electronic groups going for ~1,000, it'll start being the standard.
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Re: How close are we to seeing electronic shifting and crank based power the standard at the Ultegra/Force level? [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Jason N wrote:
I agree that electronic shifting is a little farther behind the curve...but I expect that there is still room for more adoption and price reductions in the future. How far in the future...I guess that's the question.

Cars are a good example. Your mid range car in the $25-$30k range now comes with a heck of a lot more electronics standard than it used to 10 years ago.


I'm not sure how good an example that is. There's much more competition in the auto business, with over 30 brands competing in the US alone. If you don't play the feature-creep game, you quickly lose.

Shimano, on the other hand, has a near-monopoly on the o.e. bicycle drivetrain supplier business. There is comparatively minimal competitive pressure for them to innovate or move high-margin optional features downmarket or make them standard. Not that they don't innovate, but mostly its to lure high-end buyers back into the market with new features and/or sell them high margin premium components.



If and when SRAM decided that they'd milked the margin-cow long enough and decided to make a play for an increased piece of the o.e. business by launching a value priced eTap set, we would likely see Shimano quickly respond by lowering the cost of entry to Di2 in order to protect their share. The paradox is, SRAM is probably aware of this which makes them less likely to make the first move.

"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"
Last edited by: gary p: Aug 23, 17 13:27
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Re: How close are we to seeing electronic shifting and crank based power the standard at the Ultegra/Force level? [gary p] [ In reply to ]
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SRAM is gaining a lot of traction in the OEM world. Shimano is way far behind in the mountain bike realm regarding OEM supply, and I can see that happening in the road world too.

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Re: How close are we to seeing electronic shifting and crank based power the standard at the Ultegra/Force level? [MTBSully] [ In reply to ]
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MTBSully wrote:
SRAM is gaining a lot of traction in the OEM world. Shimano is way far behind in the mountain bike realm regarding OEM supply, and I can see that happening in the road world too.

SRAM's penetrating CX/gravel with their 1x offerings, and getting on some of the premium bikes with eTap Red, but it seems there are fewer lower- and mid-range road bikes spec'd with Rival or Force 2x than 2-3 years ago.

"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"
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Re: How close are we to seeing electronic shifting and crank based power the standard at the Ultegra/Force level? [gary p] [ In reply to ]
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I'd buy that. My understanding is that Shimano is not able to make delivery requirements that manufacturers are requiring.

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