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U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion
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Mr. Slowguy, our resident Navy surface warfare expert, and I discussed a bit of this yesterday, in light of another collision between a U.S. Navy ship and a merchant vessel over in the Pacific Fleet area of operations near Singpore. Are we just asking our Navy to do too much and are the officers and Sailors running our Fleet, as well as the ships in that Fleet, simply wearing down because they have too much to do?

The linked article explores this question, and it's a serious one.

I wondered last night if perhaps the operational tempo (pace of operations, known in Navy milspeak as "OPTEMPO") laid on the Navy by various higher-ups -- in order to patrol the world's oceans and keep what's called the "sea lines of communication" (SLOC) open -- was realistic. Or is the Navy stretched too thin? I served both before, during, and after the 1980s build-up to a "600-ship Navy." Today, our Fleet is nowhere near that size, yet there are probably just as many mission tasks to cover.

It seems to me that the Navy's overall strategic mission is being forced on the sea service with a 272-ship (approximately) backbone of a Navy fleet when a bare-bones realistic assessment produced by the Navy calls for 304 to 308 ships just to cover minimum mission tasks. It may seem like 32 to 36 ships shouldn't have the kind of impact it does, but that's really a lot of ships when it comes to a naval force, believe me. You can do so much more, or more easily cover so much territory, with that many more ships, for a fact.

It would also take us 30 years, thereabouts, to get to that 308-ship minimum, which is simply too long and would -- to me -- put too much stress on the existing fleet. This is outside of a suggested SLEP, or "service life extension program," regime that would keep some current ships in the active fleet for two to three more decades rather than decommissioning them, something that might reduce that 30 years build-up time down to 10 or 15 years. (Although a SLEP "yard period" can be a multi-year commitment.)

What seems apparent to me is that we're asking the Navy to simply do too much with what it has. As I pointed out last night, the world's oceans haven't gotten any smaller and we still have almost all of them to patrol.

One could argue that, maybe, it shouldn't be our Navy's (and, by extension, our nation's) role to patrol all that water but I can't see a scenario where we would voluntarily give up that sort of power projection capability, given the fractious state of things among many countries abutting those oceans. Meaning, what goes on 'over there' -- without us also 'over there' -- could do us and our allies grievous harm in short order 'over here' if we don't maintain our naval might and its presence when needed and called for.


The U.S. Navy’s Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion.


“The U.S. combat fleet is already over-stretched,” Seth Cropsey, director of the Center for American Seapower at the Hudson Institute told The National Interest.

“Being short of two Aegis-equipped DDGs that provide ballistic missile defense while North Korea is threatening to launch ballistic missiles at local U.S. targets or allies is deeply unhelpful and regrettably timed. The overall impact on the Navy should be measured not only in the loss of sailors’ lives and unavailability of the ships as they are repaired but in the possibility that requirements have exceeded capabilities so far that the training needed to avoid such accidents has been impaired.”

Bryan McGrath, managing director of the naval consultancy FerryBridge Group, agreed with Cropsey’s assessment.

“Two fewer DDGs—I believe both of which are BMD equipped—leaves a sizable hole in a fleet that is already too small for what is being asked of it in the Western Pacific,” McGrath told The National Interest.

“I imagine that the Navy will have to move ships out of their regular cycles from Hawaii and CONUS [continental United States] to cover down on Pacific requirements.”

It will not be easy to cover for the loss of the two destroyers, explains Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

“With two FDNF (Forward Deployed Naval Forces) DDGs out, the Navy would either need to forego some operations, work the remaining 10 cruisers and destroyers harder, or bring ships from Hawaii or CONUS to cover for them,” Clark told The National Interest.

Indeed, the fact that the Navy is forcing its fleet to do more with fewer ships to perform its global mission might have contributed to both collisions."

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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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too much to do.....

Sure but so does every one else,other military branches,business etc.

They need to figure it out and do the best they can, there is a way

I cant totally relate how the Navy runs things now but I know when I was in we were stretched thin and regular sleep what the fuck was that?
I dont think some things have really changeed too much in that regard, and it has all ways been that way while underway 24/7 that is the way it is.
Last edited by: Clutch Cargo: Aug 22, 17 17:13
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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [Clutch Cargo] [ In reply to ]
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Clutch Cargo wrote:
too much to do.....

Sure but so does every one else,other military branches,business etc.

They need to figure it out and do the best they can, there is a way

I cant totally relate how the Navy runs things now but I know when I was in we were stretched thin and regular sleep what the fuck was that?
I dont think some things have really changeed too much in that regard, and it has all ways been that way while underway 24/7 that is the way it is.

Talking about regular sleep and underway 24/7 is missing the point the article's author was making. He's talking about Fleet exhaustion, not specifically personal tiredness. He's talking about the operational schedule and administrative demands being too high to allow for solid maintenance and sufficient training.

I'm not here to defend or refute his position, but I wanted to point out that it's a different issue from, "suck it up, life at sea is hard."

Slowguy

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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [slowguy] [ In reply to ]
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slowguy wrote:
Clutch Cargo wrote:
too much to do.....

Sure but so does every one else,other military branches,business etc.

They need to figure it out and do the best they can, there is a way

I cant totally relate how the Navy runs things now but I know when I was in we were stretched thin and regular sleep what the fuck was that?
I dont think some things have really changeed too much in that regard, and it has all ways been that way while underway 24/7 that is the way it is.


Talking about regular sleep and underway 24/7 is missing the point the article's author was making. He's talking about Fleet exhaustion, not specifically personal tiredness. He's talking about the operational schedule and administrative demands being too high to allow for solid maintenance and sufficient training.

I'm not here to defend or refute his position, but I wanted to point out that it's a different issue from, "suck it up, life at sea is hard."


If your deployments are coming faster than ever, with shorter homeport time in between -- time often needed for refit and to get officers and Sailors to critical training evolutions -- I can see where issues quickly start to arise. Doing everything 'on the fly' is a recipe for trouble. Training and education is also a vital component in the readiness mix.

Refit and yard time is needed for ships to maintain their readiness and combat effectiveness. Crews need to update their skill sets. Ships need to be updated and repaired. Humans and ships both need time at HOME or -- in the case of humans -- their attention spans shorten and some will eventually crack and seek ways to ensure they spend a bit more time in their homeports. I've seen it before.

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Last edited by: big kahuna: Aug 22, 17 18:43
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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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Do we have any similar data for other navies such as Russians, Chinese...
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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [softrun] [ In reply to ]
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softrun wrote:
Do we have any similar data for other navies such as Russians, Chinese...

I don't know how much reliable data can be gleaned from PLAN ("People's Liberation Army Navy"), because the Chinese traditionally are secretive about military operations, both on land and at sea. They haven't been a significant "blue water" (open ocean) power, either, though they're trying to change that. My guess is they suffer their fair share of mishaps, though if they're colliding with anyone it seems like it'd be with other Chinese vessels closer to shore in littoral waters ("brown water"), and we'd most likely not hear about those.

We've known more about Soviet, and now Russian, naval issues -- especially in their submarine fleet -- for decades. Not a pretty picture, and they don't have a very enviable safety record across the board, from what I understand. Mr. Slowguy would know more about performance as regards both the Chinese and Russian navies, though.

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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I did not read the article, and have no military experience so this statement could be taken with a grain of Salt.

I 100% percent agree that we are asking WAY to much of our military and the equipment. The less is more conversation of downsizing in business or military means that individuals end up taking on more task. Eventually they will hit operational saturation and mistakes will happen.

In many way the new technology that allows us to do more, means that we do more when it works and even more when it does not work. But as someone mentioned below less ships to patrol the same amount of Ocean with more threats is not good.

I wish many people would think about this before we start talking about fighting this country or that country, especially when we are still tangled up in 2 wars right now (Afghanistan and we still have support in Iraq). Our military reach is limited.

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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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I don't know, but suspect that the Navy is running into the same problem the Army had - OPTEMPO pushed many of the mid-career NCOs and officers to get out or retire, and the ones promoted often didn't get the formal schooling, or a shortened version.

You get young leaders who have the desire, but haven't had the mentorship or opportunity to trial things in training- they're thrown right into the real world fight. We give our young leaders unprecedented freedom to make decisions, but we owe them the training and education to handle that heavy responsibility.

The real question is: What do we pare back? What can the nation afford in that regard?

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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [spudone] [ In reply to ]
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Christian Science Monitor examines the issue of "too-many-jobs-not-enough-resources" as regards the Navy and its global power projection commitment:

“It can all be taken back to this major root cause, which is supply not being able to keep up with demand,” adds Mr. Clark, who is now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), a public policy research institute based in Washington, D.C."

The U.S. Navy -- along with its Fleet Marine Force (FMF) Marine Corps brethren -- has a unique mission and it has to have the capability to, basically, make war at any time and any place and in very short order, at that.

The Navy also represents the United States in far flung places on a regular basis, and it's always the case that the first question a U.S. president asks, upon learning of a crisis in a far-off land, is: "Where are our aircraft carriers?"

That's simultaneously the Navy's privilege and prestige yet also its most burdensome responsibility. It is truly a 24/7/365 military service branch and because of its singular purpose -- immediate power projection conducted on the land, the air and the sea -- there is almost no respite or pause in its operations.

Essentially, the mission tasks stay the same even if there aren't as many ships to conduct them. As I've said; that's a recipe for trouble, which has landed squarely on the Navy's quarterdeck of late.

USS John S. McCain, post-collision:



USS Fitzgerald, post-collision:



Trouble in the Seventh Fleet: what may be behind Navy collisions - CSMonitor.com

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
Last edited by: big kahuna: Aug 23, 17 18:50
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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [ In reply to ]
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This isn't a Navy problem, or even a military problem. It's a political problem. We continue to try to be the world's policeman, the world's do-gooder. In order to attempt to accomplish that mission we burn thru blood and treasure, well, blood and add to our credit card debt.

We need to grow out of our post WW2 mindset that we are in charge of the world, that the US has a unique obligation to help everyone. Yes, we do want to help everyone, but we simply have to recognize that we can't afford to. We can't afford the good feeling that warms our heart when we whip out our credit card to provide security to the world's sea lanes.

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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [RangerGress] [ In reply to ]
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RangerGress wrote:
This isn't a Navy problem, or even a military problem. It's a political problem. We continue to try to be the world's policeman, the world's do-gooder. In order to attempt to accomplish that mission we burn thru blood and treasure, well, blood and add to our credit card debt.

We need to grow out of our post WW2 mindset that we are in charge of the world, that the US has a unique obligation to help everyone. Yes, we do want to help everyone, but we simply have to recognize that we can't afford to. We can't afford the good feeling that warms our heart when we whip out our credit card to provide security to the world's sea lanes.

I fully agree with your statement. However, it is a double edged sword. People get mad when we are "slow to respond" such as during the tsunami, and then others complain when we stay.

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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [RangerGress] [ In reply to ]
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RangerGress wrote:
This isn't a Navy problem, or even a military problem. It's a political problem. We continue to try to be the world's policeman, the world's do-gooder. In order to attempt to accomplish that mission we burn thru blood and treasure, well, blood and add to our credit card debt.

We need to grow out of our post WW2 mindset that we are in charge of the world, that the US has a unique obligation to help everyone. Yes, we do want to help everyone, but we simply have to recognize that we can't afford to. We can't afford the good feeling that warms our heart when we whip out our credit card to provide security to the world's sea lanes.

One thing's for sure, our military presence is almost everywhere. According to a March 18th article at the Visual Capitalist website, we currently have nearly 200,000 troops deployed to 177 countries around the globe. Plus, we're engaged in serious fighting -- mostly as part of the effort waged against non-state terror groups -- in a number of those areas (some efforts are also classified and listed as "unspecified other countries"). Hotspots where we have specops/specwar personnel include Somalia, various other areas in the Horn of Africa (no doubt), Yemen, the Philippines and elsewhere.

Chart: U.S. Military Personnel Deployments by Country



Major hotspots where the US military is deployed - Business Insider

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [RangerGress] [ In reply to ]
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I tend to think we actually can afford it, its a choice...we are spending less as a % of GDP on defense than our historical spend since WW2. Are our forces much smaller than historical. I don't pretend to know what is the right amount of spend and #'s in the military, I just know we are spending less (not in actual dollars but in spend to GDP). Our spending is around 4% now and will drop to 3.5% by 2020. This is drastically less than the Reagan years (6.8%) and less than Vietnam years (10%). The cold war spending was around 10%. We can argue if we want to be the Worlds policeman, but the hard cold facts is we are spending less than ever in relation to our history.

This spending is a choice, our politicians/default our citizens have decided to spend more on SSI, Medicare, Obamacare, etc.
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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [blueraider_mike] [ In reply to ]
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blueraider_mike wrote:
I tend to think we actually can afford it, its a choice...we are spending less as a % of GDP on defense than our historical spend since WW2. Are our forces much smaller than historical. I don't pretend to know what is the right amount of spend and #'s in the military, I just know we are spending less (not in actual dollars but in spend to GDP). Our spending is around 4% now and will drop to 3.5% by 2020. This is drastically less than the Reagan years (6.8%) and less than Vietnam years (10%). The cold war spending was around 10%. We can argue if we want to be the Worlds policeman, but the hard cold facts is we are spending less than ever in relation to our history.

This spending is a choice, our politicians/default our citizens have decided to spend more on SSI, Medicare, Obamacare, etc.

Defense is part of what's called "discretionary spending." Much of the government's spending of late is on non-discretionary or mandatory spending, including Social Security and Medicare.

The below is from the FY 2016 budget submitted by then-President Obama. It gives one an idea of what we spend "voluntarily" and what we "must" spend on:

"This chart shows how President Obama proposed allocating $4.1 trillion* in total federal spending in fiscal year 2016, an increase of more than 5 percent over the total 2015 spending level. This includes every type of federal spending, from funding for discretionary programs like infrastructure improvements and job training to mandatory spending programs like Social Security and Medicare, as well as interest payments on the federal debt. Social Security and labor, Medicare and health programs, and military spending will make up 76 percent of the total budget, leaving just 24 percent, or $957 billion of the $4.1 trillion total, to spend on all other programs."


President’s 2016 Budget in Pictures

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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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I get the diff between discretionary and non-discretionary...but at the end of the day these are political choices. Why don't we reform this stuff, it unworkable to just let 60% of the budget go up on autopilot.

As far as non-discretionary, the increase for non-military spending are increasing at much higher rates, while the Military has actually had real cuts from time to time, while non-discretionary, they manage it - the other, just kick the can down the road.
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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [blueraider_mike] [ In reply to ]
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blueraider_mike wrote:
I get the diff between discretionary and non-discretionary...but at the end of the day these are political choices. Why don't we reform this stuff, it unworkable to just let 60% of the budget go up on autopilot.

As far as non-discretionary, the increase for non-military spending are increasing at much higher rates, while the Military has actually had real cuts from time to time, while non-discretionary, they manage it - the other, just kick the can down the road.

Free market supply siders (and I count myself among them) would say that the solution is to grow the economic pie so that there's more for everyone and, barring that, to prioritize our spending choices, realizing that we can't spend money on everything we want -- but must spend on what we need. We don't have a revenue problem, obviously. We have a spending problem.

I believe the screaming this year about budget "cuts" doesn't take into account that rather than a cut, what's being proposed is a slowdown in the rate of spending, generally speaking. I'm also a retired military officer, so my sympathies naturally lie in the defense realm.

Lastly: isn't it great to be a politician? They're awesome at spending money they didn't earn but they STINK at conserving money when fiscal prudence and prioritization are called for. But that's the way of life of this strange creature. ;-)

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
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Re: U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy Might Be Exhaustion [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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big kahuna wrote:

It would also take us 30 years, thereabouts, to get to that 308-ship minimum, which is simply too long and would -- to me -- put too much stress on the existing fleet. This is outside of a suggested SLEP, or "service life extension program," regime that would keep some current ships in the active fleet for two to three more decades rather than decommissioning them, something that might reduce that 30 years build-up time down to 10 or 15 years. (Although a SLEP "yard period" can be a multi-year commitment.)
."

do what you, and so many other countries have done...
outsource the supply of your demands to a high volume, fast turnaround, cheaper labour supply country, possibly in Asia.
They, whoever they are, fast build your hulls and non critical systems and they y'all fit the critical weapons systems etc.

anyone for a cheap T-Shirt. cheap Hyundia, cheap Destroyer or two....
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