And that might be. But is Trump attracting any new converts? My guess is no. Could be, but I'm having a hard time seeing any. He just very, very barely squeaked by in 2016. Lost the popular vote by a non-insignificant amount and won several states by very narrow amounts. There is not much margin for error.

Lose just a couple tenths of a percent of your prior voters, have an itty bitty difference in turnout in a couple places, have a few more illegal immigrants vote, and it is the opposite of cruising to victory.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Trump just kicked ass in the last GOP primary, have you forgotten? He beat all the challengers. He made Ryan kiss his ass and won with a VP who believes that homosexuals can become heterosexuals if given the proper chance.....

Just because you are "candidate" does not equate to having a chance at the Presidency. How many GOP candidates were there? Wasn't Bush the odds on favorite to win the nomination? When knowledgeable people talk about potential 2020 democratic candidates who are they talking about?

"former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) "

The two guys are democratic party hacks and Warren would have less of a chance than Hillary.

To beat Trump you are going to have to out Trump him. You need to be a successful business person, well known, bombastic, egotistical and be able to explain to voters why a vote for them isn't a vote for business as usual. Duffy already made it clear Oprah is not an option. Tell me who could take on and beat The Donald in 2020? Hoping for someone unknown to unseat The Donald is like buying a Power Ball ticket. You could win, but the odds are way against you.

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"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

Yeah, but usually there's no real challenge mounted in the same-party primary of a sitting President. I bet this time there will be. That'll be the entertaining part.

If you're implying that either the primary or general election will be as easy for Trump in 2020 (if he gets there) as 2016, I think you're waaay overselling it.

I get that some % of core voters won't ever budge. But I have to think that some who voted for him will tire of the Trump Show. Even Trump seems tired of the Trump Show, shedding all allies and retreating into his own properties, occasionally emerging to troll the media and #liberals. Abdicating all levers of Government. (allies in Congress, cohesive internal staff pushing a clear agenda). Look, I don't expect Trump voters to declare they should have voted for Hillary or anything. Or budge on one single issue. Or even admit to making a mistake.

But it's looking really, really hard to think that the Trump Presidency has any positive characteristics. Unless your sole concern is "upsetting the left and the media". In which case it's still effective, and by all means, carry on.

You have to go back to early 2016, nobody gave Trump a chance. And now that he's in office he's only alienating the voters that didn't like him in the first place. Many of them didn't even show up to vote for Billary remember? It's like Kaepernick. He bitches and whines and then doesn't even vote....You really need to look at Trump's core supporters, what do they believe?

"Those who do remain firmly behind the president today say it's partly because he is under fire, believing that Mr. Trump needs their support fighting "the establishment" now more than ever, and agreeing that he is indeed the subject of a political witch hunt and unfair coverage. The vast majority of these supporters take this recent round of controversy very personally. When people criticize Mr. Trump, they say, critics are also knocking "people like me" who support him, too."

And let me reiterate again, the economy in 2020 will be the determining factor for how the election plays out.

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"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

It's a big factor for sure. But far from the only factor. I'll mark this post to revisit in 2020! If I lose, I promise I'll show myself!

I'm with you. For the record I bet my daughter in early 2016 that Trump would win. But before the election I firmly believed that Trump's video with Bush killed his chances and expected Hillary to squeak by.

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"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

And, one more time, that's roughly 1/3 of the electorate. All those actual pro-Trump supporters, plus all the "anyone but Hillary" folks who held their nose and decided to roll the dice w/ the anti-establishment guy, STILL amounted to fewer votes than Hillary got. So if his antics in office have given any of the "anyone but Hillary" camp second thoughts (not to mention mobilizing more of the Obama voters who sat out the last election), how many more votes do you think he'll get when he's not running against Hillary anymore?

It's one thing to run as the Outsider since it's easy to rail against the status quo, but now that he's the incumbent, it's a very different sell to convince people to vote for more of the same. What 'accomplishments' does he have to run on (or realistically will, given he's alienated so many of his would-be allies to get anything done, while at the same time hardening the opposition)?

Solidifying his base and expanding it are 2 very different things, and in fact look to be working at odds right now. Put another way, who the hell is he 'converting' to his side at this point?

He's 6+ months into his Presidency. He doesn't need "converts" now. He didn't need them in 2016 either to beat Billary. His core base is not going to change just because many hope it will. They will dig in because for them it's all about us vs. them.

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"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

His base isn't what won him the EC; it's what won him the Republican nomination.

Hillary is what won him the EC. Independents split and the Democrat base slept. Don't think for a second that they'll sleep on him next time around, presuming he runs.

For every volt he pumps into the base, he pumps two into his opposition.

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The devil made me do it the first time, second time I done it on my own - W

Trump also didn't have a record in government to attack during the election. Now he has a record.

Just about everything he said during the election, can now be used to attack him.

Everything he has done or not done can be used against him now.

That's a lot of ammo for future opponents.

Trump will do one of two things.

1. Quit and announce it as a win
2. Quit/be forced out and play the blame game.

Ah hell, he's going to do both of those things. He'll bitch and moan amd he'll claim victory.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

I am agreeing w/ you on that point, but that base alone is too small to win without all the anti-Hillary votes he got last time (plus apathetic turnout for Hillary on the D side). So how does he close that gap a second time; where are those additional swing votes going to come from? Simply attempting a repeat of the last election isn't going to happen, because 1) no Hillary, and 2) he'll have his own dismal record to answer for rather than enjoying the luxury of having people optimistically project what they think he'd do since he'd never held office before.

Used as a verb [1. feel intense or passionate dislike for (someone or something)], yes, I hate Tennessee. So? I have 2,812 days left here.


And whoever said Trump would quit and twist it around as a "WIN" - I think he'd be gone now if he could figure out a way to do that.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Steve Bannon is out, so maybe the more moderate voices (which include Ivanka/Kushner) may have won, but as I mentioned the prize for winning is the Don. I think he has made himself a lame duck already, by never changing his obnoxious behaviors that pretty much everyone hoped would end when he took the seat as POTUS. He has actually done quite a bit, but almost all in the form of things that can be undone quickly by the next guy, just as Trump has been able to damage the Obama legacy in short order. That's the kind of "power" a POTUS has at the end of their time in office, and they lean on it because they don't have a congress that can get any larger agenda items through. In short, he spoiled whatever tenuous honeymoon he might have had. I think pubs will push hard for another candidate, if Trump makes the whole term. OTOH, it's a long time away.

Old trick used by diviners and soothsayers: when making prediction of future assign some true proposition (he knows him, etc) to create illusion that prediction is more than just a wild ass guess. There are many people who know Trump as well, or better, than the author. The statement plays to the hopes of some people so it has managed to get repeated though it is no more meaningful than today's horoscope.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

I was thinking about this today. What he's accomplished so far could have been done by a random staffer, given the authority and a pen. Every major legislative agenda item has been not just sidelined, but completely derailed by his compulsive bad behavior. He's given little guidance and put nearly zero actual effort into pushing anything across the finish line. If he can't get any of these substantive agenda items done now, what's his record going to look like on the back end of his term when the low hanging fruit (EOs, etc.) have long run out, and the midterms strip him of his Congressional majority?

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The devil made me do it the first time, second time I done it on my own - W

Isn't the statement, to which I added emphasis above, true for most every President and most every person who has ever been in position of authority?

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Ann Coulter said this today:

"The millions of people who haven’t voted for 30 years and came out to vote for Trump, thinking ‘finally, here’s somebody who cares about us’—Nope!” Coulter declared. "

So she refers to millions of voters who came out to vote for Trump who haven't voted for 30 years. I'm Not sure they will vote for him a second time, and nor is she.