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Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du!
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I'm participating in my first OLY Duathlon next weekend (Michigan Titanium). A friend of mine that I'm very competitive with is also doing this event, so I'd like any tips from the Slowtwitch crew for pacing or whatever other advice you can give. Also for fun, predict our finish times for each event.

This is:
25 mile bike: http://www.mapmyfitness.com/routes/view/640244870
6.2 mile run: relatively flat loop

My stats:
Age: 33
Weight: 186

Bike: Pretty Strong
FTP = 255.
Bike = 2012 S-Works Venge. Road bars
Volume: Regularly bike 120mi / week (3 TR indoor rides, 1 long outdoor group ride)

Run: Fairly weak
5k time: 24:30, but cramped up a bit at the end
Volume: Very little. Usually 1 run/wk for 2 miles. Really slacked on this one

Triathlon Experience: Zero
- Competed in 1 season of TT's
- (2) HIM Relays - bike leg


Friend's Stats:
Age: 33
Weight: 175

Bike: Fairly weak
FTP: 177
Bike = Cervelo Soloist with Aerobars. Needs professional fit
Volume: Regularly bike 25 miles/week (1 ride outdoors) plus 1 spin class

Run: Average-strong. Doesn't train a ton but seems to have natural ability here
5k time: 23:50, no cramps at the end of the race
Volume: 3 unstructured runs/week. 5k-10k race pace usually

Triathlon Experience: Reasonably Experienced
- 2 IM's (15-16hr finishes)
- 2 HIM's
- Several OLY and Sprints



Additional Points:
- Neither of us have a power meter
- I use a Wahoo Bolt to track speed/cadence and track where I'm at on the course. He doesn't use a bike computer

So basically he neglects biking but is a pretty good runner. I neglect running but am a pretty good cyclist.
Initially I'm thinking I'll get so far ahead on the bike that he won't be able to make it up on the run, but I'm a bit worried about cramps on run if I run too hard. I never cramp on the bike, but I assume my low running volume is the issue. My quads/calves cramped up AFTER my last 5k race.


1) How hard should I go on the bike? How close to my 5k pace should I go on the 10k run?
2) For fun, Predictions on our finish times? Who will win?
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [cbr shadow] [ In reply to ]
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Hard to predict on so little data, but if he's got a decent natural ability to run, he most likely has it to bike as well. If he can keep up close enough to you on the bike, I'm going to have to predict that he takes it on the run.
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [cbr shadow] [ In reply to ]
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Agreed, not a whole lot of data but based on what's here, I vote you, hammer the bike and survive the run. Based on that 5k, he isn't that strong of a runner either, y'all aren't too far apart but you have a bigger advantage on the bike. Make sure to taunt him when you are on the way back so he burns more matches.

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [cbr shadow] [ In reply to ]
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I'm predicting he's going to crush you. So hopefully that serves as some motivation. ;)

Seriously though...I think you may be underestimating his bike. Neither of you have power meters, so I'm not sure if your virtual power FTP from TR is inflated, or how you know his FTP is 177. And while you indicate he only rides 25 miles a week, he's got a couple of 112 mile and 56 mile rides in him just from IM and HIMs. I have to assume he has ridden more than 25 miles per week in the past.

What are some of your TT results with your estimated FTP of 255 and what are some of his bike split results with that estimate of 177?

If you're doing 40k TTs in 1:05ish and he's doing Oly bike legs in 1:25...then yeah, you'll probably gap him pretty bad on the bike...but I stand by my prediction that he'll crush you just so you have motivation.
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Jason N wrote:
I'm predicting he's going to crush you. So hopefully that serves as some motivation. ;)

Seriously though...I think you may be underestimating his bike. Neither of you have power meters, so I'm not sure if your virtual power FTP from TR is inflated, or how you know his FTP is 177. And while you indicate he only rides 25 miles a week, he's got a couple of 112 mile and 56 mile rides in him just from IM and HIMs. I have to assume he has ridden more than 25 miles per week in the past.

What are some of your TT results with your estimated FTP of 255 and what are some of his bike split results with that estimate of 177?

If you're doing 40k TTs in 1:05ish and he's doing Oly bike legs in 1:25...then yeah, you'll probably gap him pretty bad on the bike...but I stand by my prediction that he'll crush you just so you have motivation.

LOL well I wasn't expecting a "He's going to crush you" prediction, but I posted here to get honest answers so I appreciate it.
Both of our FTP's are based on a 20-minute FTP test done in TrainerRoad. We both did them within the last 2 weeks and used the same protocol.

I'm definitely much stronger than him on the bike. We've ridden together a lot and I can easily get away and stay way ahead of him. The longer and hillier the course the further ahead I get. I can't see any reason I wont be far ahead of him on the bike leg, but I guess we'll see.

Maybe a better question is:
How far ahead do I need to be coming off of the bike in order to stay ahead on a the run?
What's the ideal percentage of FTP that I should put out on the bike?
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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I'd go with opposite because my wager is with this info this has epic blow up written all over it.

"Faster" biker with no run volume and having to run for close to 54 mins....recipe for disaster if you hammer the bike.

To me the harder you hammer, the bigger blowup on the run, especially for someone with no volume.

Let us know how it goes. I predict he passes you with a mile to go.

Eta: run prediction: If you break 55 I would call that success.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Aug 14, 17 14:21
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [cbr shadow] [ In reply to ]
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I think you need to bike easy enough to avoid cramping or extended periods of walking on the run. If you already cramped during an open 5k, then that means you need to bike pretty darn conservative if you at least want to shuffle the entire 10k run.
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Jason N wrote:
I think you need to bike easy enough to avoid cramping or extended periods of walking on the run. If you already cramped during an open 5k, then that means you need to bike pretty darn conservative if you at least want to shuffle the entire 10k run.

All good points.
I didn't actually cramp on the 5k, I cramped while standing around afterwards. Once I stopped running and stood at the finish for 5-10 minutes my legs were super stiff/crampy.
I'll post the results after the event for sure.
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [cbr shadow] [ In reply to ]
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I see you don't list any multi-sport experience but he has some.
Have you ever run immediately after a hard cycle?

If not, do a Brick session today or tomorrow!
Some people stuggle A LOT when they first try running off the bike. Your legs will probably not feel quite right for the first few minutes of the run. You'll also likely be inclined to run too fast because you've become used to the sensation of travelling quickly on the bike and suddenly you're going a third of that speed. So practice a transition going from the bike to a sustainable run pace. Even if you only have time to do it once.
I know a guy who was/is a much better runner than me and first time he did a duathlon he basically shuffled the entire second run because he just couldn't deal with the switch from bike to run. He swore never to do a multi-sport race again and I don't think he has! I think that's an extreme example but still - if you want to beat him, do a practice!

If you're prone to cramping you may find that switching from bike to run could trigger calf cramps. Hopefully not.
Since it's your first go at it, I'd recommend backing off a little for the last minute or two on the bike and increasing cadence. That should help loosen up your legs a little. You can also stretch your calves a little towards the end of the bike leg without losing significant time. Just freewheel for a few moments and push your heel down (assuming you use clipless pedals). It could be worth a lot of time on the run if it helps keep your legs comfortable.
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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Ai_1 wrote:
I see you don't list any multi-sport experience but he has some.
Have you ever run immediately after a hard cycle?

If not, do a Brick session today or tomorrow!
Some people stuggle A LOT when they first try running off the bike. Your legs will probably not feel quite right for the first few minutes of the run. You'll also likely be inclined to run too fast because you've become used to the sensation of travelling quickly on the bike and suddenly you're going a third of that speed. So practice a transition going from the bike to a sustainable run pace. Even if you only have time to do it once.
I know a guy who was/is a much better runner than me and first time he did a duathlon he basically shuffled the entire second run because he just couldn't deal with the switch from bike to run. He swore never to do a multi-sport race again and I don't think he has! I think that's an extreme example but still - if you want to beat him, do a practice!

If you're prone to cramping you may find that switching from bike to run could trigger calf cramps. Hopefully not.
Since it's your first go at it, I'd recommend backing off a little for the last minute or two on the bike and increasing cadence. That should help loosen up your legs a little. You can also stretch your calves a little towards the end of the bike leg without losing significant time. Just freewheel for a few moments and push your heel down (assuming you use clipless pedals). It could be worth a lot of time on the run if it helps keep your legs comfortable.

Agree with this completely. Had a similar situation with a friend and he struggled on the transition to the run from the bike. I crushed him pretty easily and I am the weaker runner by far. He caught me within 10 miles and then I caught and blew him away with 5 miles to go. That transition matters and could lead to a painful race day if you aren't ready for it.
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [ctreynolds] [ In reply to ]
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Alright I said I'd post the results so here they are.

Bike: I beat friend by 5 min 20 sec
Transition: Friend was 20 seconds faster
Run: Friend beat me by 4 seconds

End result: I won by 4 min 56 seconds


I ended up going hard on the bike until the last 2 miles where I increased cadence and came down to about 80% effort to get my legs feeling good. The run was tough and my right Achilles was bothering me a lot on the first 2 miles, then that went away and I felt good. No cramps at all so that was a nice surprise. It ended up being a really fun race!
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [cbr shadow] [ In reply to ]
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I had faith, do I get a prize?

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo
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Re: Predict if I'll beat my friend in my first Du! [cbr shadow] [ In reply to ]
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Well done! What was the run split?

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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