There is zero chance Seoul doesn't get hit. Now my understanding is NK has a crap ton of artillary, but their accuracy and number of physical rounds really isn't that great. So they will get a first strike in no matter what before a bombing strike force could lay waste to their artillary.

A first stoke from us gives us no benefit besides we haven't started a war for awhile. I'm very pro military and in no stretch of the imagination a pacifist. When it comes to terrorism right now I think we should be taking a harder stance militarily. However in this case I don't think a preemptive strike is the right call. I just can't believe Kim is suicidal because any attack he launches will be just that.

One of my relatives is in the military and worked for the joint chiefs of staff the last few years with strategic planning. I know how smart he is and have no doubt whatever happens they have a good plan. I just don't think a first strike is that.

Why not launch an all out propaganda war? Find ways to smuggle cheap video players into the country en masse. Then also distribute media like movies, TV and news broadcasts. Find ways to circumvent the internet firewall, or maybe even try to setup some type of wireless, that will allow North Koreans to access outside media directly. I'm not even talking about political subversion, but merely allowing people to access information about the outside world. Get them connected to the world outside, so they'll be less likely to carry out orders attacking the outside.

I guess the risk is that the Chinese might not like it. And it may encourage erratic behavior in the leadership. But that is still something that can be tried before military intervention.

Which outside world would like to show them? The one where the US elected Hitler?

I agree a few episodes of Andy Griffith would be good for those communist. Anything more advance than that would be pure science fiction to those folks.

Messianic dictators like the fat guy in N. Korea are much more dangerous. No checks and balances on his power -- he is the state. Why assume he is a rational actor when the evidence suggests otherwise. A nuclear strike or nuclear blackmail is much more likely with an irrational leader with absolute authority. That said, good options for real action to diffuse and eliminate the threat are non-existent. Trump, for all his faults, appears ready to pressure China [ N. Korea's enabler] which is a step in the right direction.

Maybe not "all out," but those types of things have been ongoing for decades. Many North Koreans surreptitiously watch South Korean soap operas, etc, on bootleg DVDs. I read one book about how an English teacher from the U.S. snuck in Harry Potter into an elite school for the children of the highest government officials. There are groups of South Koreans who attach money and propaganda to balloons and send them over the DMZ regularly. There are radio broadcasts. And there's been evidence of an ongoing cyberoperation against North Korea for years. (by some combination of Japan, South Korea, and the U.S.)

There was an interview on NPR yesterday by a defector who defected because of the soap operas. Now he idolizes Steve Jobs and runs an iPhone repair shop in South Korea.

But it's tricky. You could turn 90% of the population and not really get anywhere. You'd still have to presume the military is disciplined, especially because they have guns pointing at their own heads.

As usual you are asking all the right questions.

I think you'd be surprised. Bootleg Harry Potter. Transformers. Soaps. There is a robust bootleg industry, mostly coming from China, greasing the palms of border security. There are some great accounts of smugglers carrying bags of microSD cards loaded with pop culture stuff. Just careful not to carry stuff with obvious political messages - presumably The Interview is out. The presumption is the government knows about it, but tolerates some level of black market because the economy has become effectively dependent upon it.

I'll add a few comments based on a few posts...

1.) South Korea gets hit hard by the North's artillery during any exchange. That's really been the North's savior deterrent during all these years of supporting the world's bad actors.
2.) I don't think Kim is crazy, but I also think he believes a nuclear arsenal gives him substantial blackmail capability. That's a different calculus than just giving him an insurance policy against foreign attack.
3.) China does not want any increase in the USA's sphere of influence in Asia. That would probably mean no North/South unification, and it probably means no total failure of the Northern state. The fact that China doesn't want a ton of Northern refugees also means it wants to keep the North viable.

Yeah, but I think the North Korean people already have an idea of what's going on. They just aren't relevant to the power structure governing the country. It's kind of like the Cuban people. They're all too poor, isolated, and controlled to make a difference.

To me the evidence suggests his single over-riding priority is preservation of his power and state. And that he acts rationally towards that goal. (not ethically or within any bounds of human decency at all, but rationally). An offensive strike would not seem to be consistent with that end goal. He was schooled in the West. He almost certainly understands the broad capabilities of U.S. and Western firepower. All that stuff about annihilating the U.S. is propaganda. It's unlikely he believes it - that's how propaganda works. Maybe there's some risk that he becomes mentally unstable and starts to drink his own Kool-Aid. But I haven't seen that yet in public information.

If we stop buying Chinese products the risk of war with China will go up substantially. There is no better way to prevent war than having mutual economic interests. Well, except for intermarriage among royal families. :)

I feel like it will be handled.

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The devil made me do it the first time, second time I done it on my own - W

If the US stops buying from China, they'll stop buying from the US. China is the 3rd largest market for US exports (after our NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico). However, the EU, Japan, S Korea, and Taiwan all export more to China than the US exports. China can probably buy what they currently buy from the US from some other country (Airbus would love to replace the Chinese orders for Boeing airliners.) In the US, everyone from farmers to airplane manufacturers (and coal miners) would be hurt.

https://www.uschina.org/.../us-exports/national

The Top 10 US Exports to China
1. Soybeans: $15 billion
2. Civilian aircraft: $8.4 billion
3. Cotton: $3.4 billion
4. Copper materials: $3 billion
5. Passenger vehicles (small engines): $3 billion
6. Aluminum materials: $2.4 billion
7. Passenger vehicles (large engines): $2.2 billion
8. Electronic integrated circuits: $1.7 billion
9. Corn: $1.3 billion
10. Coal: $1.2 billion

Source: US Census Bureau

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

If the US stops buying from China, they'll stop buying from the US. China is the 3rd largest market for US exports (after our NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico). However, the EU, Japan, S Korea, and Taiwan all export more to China than the US exports. China can probably buy what they currently buy from the US from some other country (Airbus would love to replace the Chinese orders for Boeing airliners.) In the US, everyone from farmers to airplane manufacturers (and coal miners) would be hurt.


Yeah but you now have a weapon that wasn't available when all those trade deals were signed over the years.


Donald J. Trump

Read my post. Any strike on North Korea was predicated on South Korea (and Japan) agreeing. At the end of the day, South Korea is at greatest risk. There is no easy way out for them, but to me it is either they take a small risk now or this only gets worse later on if decisive action is not taken now.

There are all kinds of options. Again, some kind of coup attempt based on clandestine operatives could work. The only option that is very clear that will not work is diplomacy and sanctions. If we could go into Pakistan and take out Bin Laden, I am pretty sure we can thread the needle on this one if we plan very carefully.

This ^^^ spot On I believe.

Only would add to #2... I agree Kim not crazy, just looking out for his regime and staying in power, He has seen other recent (relatively) "crazy dictators" stop their programs and fall... ie Saddam & Gaddafi

All of what SH said and you agreed with, but let me just ad that there are two people who should never be allowed to have their fingers on the nuclear trigger. One is Kim Jong-un and the other is Donald Trump. They're still both irrational hotheads with big egos even if they're not crazy.