And that, I think, is the big issue.

You have a dozen plus publications (print and internet) all saying it's one thing. And then you have everyone and their brother reading those things and regurgitating them. And then you have the actual "experts" coming in and saying, "no, that's not right" and when you actually produce those things saying that you get called out for being wrong. It's all a big comedy routine!

You just have to laugh about it.

What are you power numbers in key workouts leading up to the race? How long can you ride at 100% FTP? Testing is a guideline for training and racing, make sure to adjust based on what you experience in workouts.

No wonder Trev is confused.

---

Hamish Ferguson: Cycling Coach

" How long can you ride at 100% FTP?"

Do you mean TTE ( Time To Exhaustion ) in WKO4 as in how long you can ride at mFTP?

Or are you asking how long one can ride at FTP which might be average power over a 40k TT or the power you can maintain in a semi quasi steady state for approx 60 minutes +\- 13 minutes, or power at MLSS which could be maintained for anything from 30 minutes to 70 minutes?

Don't get bogged down in trolling...

I mean how long can the OP ride at the wattage that he has identified as his FTP. If he hasn't done long segments at ftp, what wattages is he holding for interval sessions or hard tempo rides? It's called training and reviewing your training data.

Knowing how long he can ride at the wattage he has identified as his FTP is not very useful without also knowing how he has estimated his FTP.

What do you mean by ' long segments at FTP', do you mean 30 minutes, 40 minutes, 50 minutes, 60 minutes, 70 minutes?

 

---

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

That's total BS. Training data is extremely valuable to review. Training is testing after all. If you can't ride 30km at 100% of FTP, I would suggest not targeting 102% for a 40km TT. Doesn't matter how you tested FTP, pretty simple data to review.

Similarly, if you can routinely ride 40-60min of intervals close to FTP, you can use that info to help pacing an event that you target at ~54min. You can also use all of your training data to build a model of your power curves and make good estimates of different power targets for different durations of events (then test those targets prior to the main events). I bet someone already build a system to do this...

 
so you are in his category right?

Disappear for a couple of days and come back to some serious argument. My question had to do with using the % of max power I can hold for an hour, and I'll be the first to acknowledge that I may be off base in defining max power I can hold for an hour as FTP.

Seems like it really depends on my power curve, with the margin of error on any given day suggesting I play it conservative to begin with (sticking with what I can believe I can hold for an hour) and adjust accordingly based on RPE throughout the effort.

Short answer: It depends.

Slightly less short answer: It depends on the individual, the individual on any given day, and the demands of the 39.5km test beyond just riding 39.5km as hard as you can (climate, wind, rolling resistance, mental demands etc).

---

Hamish Ferguson: Cycling Coach

How much experience do you have with these efforts?

I like RPE (using the PM in the first 5 minutes to make sure I don't overdo it), but if you don't have a lot of experience of what a max 40k effort at consistent wattage feels like, it will be tough. The "feeling" will change massively from the beginning to the end. If there is doubt I'd err on the low side. It's way more fun to finish strong than blow up early, even if the time is the same.