r7950 wrote:
TimeIsUp wrote:
I'm sorry but finding 2 weeks of oil is hardly significant unless they are being found at a rate faster than every two weeks.
I hope to god I don't live another 53 years (41 now). If not for my body probably not lasting another 20, for the craziness that ensues because we weren't worried about the most important resource in the world running out in 53 years.
53 years. Think about that.
Does it really matter if the human race finds another 40 years worth?
I understand part of the thinking (having researched peak oil many years ago, > 10), but the ability to keep finding new hydrocarbon reserves and the coming advancements in alternative energies does not have me even remotely worried. If oil reserves actually start declining (which isn't implausible), the price will start to rise, rationing usage and making alternative energies more attractive. That additional usage of alternative energies (especially solar) will most likely lead to increased economies of scale, which will make it even more competitive on cost. Based on the technologies I've seen, solar may see a big breakthrough in the next 5 years.
Personally, I think the advancements in electric cars may also start to soften the demand for oil. I actually wonder when we'll next see $100 oil, I'm not expecting it soon.
I would love to see EVs (and wind/solar) become dominant in the market, and I think they will. But not in the near, or probably mid-term, future. It's the economics that underpin them, for the most. Several things to consider:
1. Market share of EVs depends in part of the cost of the lithium batteries currently used but also on the price of oil and the efficiency of competing vehicle types.
2. At present, lithium is relatively abundant and sufficient to meet the needs of batteries as they exist today and in the future (barring a breakthrough in battery technology, which isn't implausible). But what happens if lithium battery production and consumption rises greatly? Will there be enough, and will we tolerate the kind of open-pit mining needed to extract the material? I'm not so sure about that.
3. Current lithium battery cost is approximately $270 per kilowatt hour (kwh). Oil would have to cost about $300 per barrel (bbl) in 2020 dollars (2020 is the year many media sources are predicting that EVs will really take off) to make electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles equally attractive. Tesla founder Elon Musk has targeted battery costs at $100/kwh as the point where government subsidies would no longer be needed to make batteries competitive with gasoline engines. But even at that, oil would have to sell at $90/bbl -- which, again, isn't implausible by any stretch.
4. Despite my admiration for the Bolt (and the earlier Volt, a gasoline/electric vehicle), EVs are finding a tough row to hoe in the unsubsidized, non-government-credit marketplace. Use hybrids as an example. At one point, they enjoyed a $3,500 tax credit, and managed to gain a 3.1% share of the market (or 481,000 vehicles) in 2013. That year, gasoline averaged $3.51/gallon. Because of
a surge in oil supply due to fracking successes gasoline has dropped in price to $2.36/gallon on average in 2017 (so far). Hybrids -- which we're using as a predictor of potential market penetration for EVs -- have dropped to 2.1% in terms of market share.
5. EVs are ideally charged at night, when they're not being used. But it's at night that electricity is most likely to be generated by burning coal, especially in the upper Midwest of the US. Given that fact, electric vehicles -- at least around these parts and in much of 'flyover country' -- could account for more carbon dioxide per mile driven than existing cars, at least in the upper Midwest (because coal-fired plants are prevalent there). Even outside that region, EVs will probably be responsible for more CO2 than comparable hybrids in most of the rest of the country. Unfortunately, the total environmental impact of EVs may be just as high as internal combustion engines, when taking a walls-to-wheels approach.
Sources:
1.
Electric Cars Are the Future? Not So Fast -- Wall Street Journal (paywall)
2. Covert, T., Greenstone, M. et al. --
Will We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels? Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 30, No. 1, Winter 2016 (pp. 117-38)
3.
Car Makers Gear Up for Electric Push -- Wall Street Journal (paywall)
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