devashish_paul wrote:
trail wrote:
H- wrote:
Want to see Aru and Fulgsang refuse to work, then Froome will too, and NQ comes back. How stupid would Astana look then? Got a gap on the climb and then piss it away. Do you really think you might see this happen? Can you imagine what Vino would do to them if they did that?
This. In cycling you always seek to narrow the odds. Aru and Fuglsang narrowed the odds.
I chuckle at everyone who suggests that Froome would have worked if Aru and Fuglsang hadn't. That's not how bike racing works. If you want the GC leader to do work, send someone dangerous up the road. No one dangerous was able to get up the road, and it wasn't going to happen after the crest of the climb. There was no dropping Froome at that point. So you might as well stick a dagger in Quintana. And then hope a chink in Froome's nearly impenetrable armor appears sometime in the (considerable) remaining stages.
Let's look at this another way. Bardet is up the road, Froome in the middle, Quintana behind. Quintana is on fried legs from the Giro, but he's still "kind of close enough to worry about". Bardet, is fresh and a threat for the win. In week 3 when everyone is on fried legs, maybe Quintana is more of a threat. By driving hard, Aru+Fuglsang are eliminating as much as they can future threats from Bardet and Quintana (and Martin). Froome would be motivated to do the same rather than let Bardet get more of a lead and Quintana/Martin get closer. So everyone in that group kind of had to hammer hard for the same reasons.
Yup, you play the odds and look at the probable outcome after the stage, and the possible outcomes as a result of it at the end of the tour.
By Aru and Fuglsang working with Froome they assured that Bardet would not gain time, and also assured that they would gain time on Quintana and Martin. Those were sure thing outcomes of their actions the instant they committed to it, and the benefit was huge to Aru in that he solidifies his podium spot and also opens up Fuglsang for a podium spot.
If Aru and Fuglsang didn't work with Froome they are taking a HUGE gamble. They aren't sure how Froome is going to react...maybe he just sits up and lets the Martin/Quintana group catch up...and also lets Bardet get away thinking he can make up the time later? That would be a huge loss for Aru/Fuglsang if that happened. Or maybe Froome does do work at the front, it still allows Bardet to get some time, it allows Quintana/Martin to lose less time, and Froome doesn't get dropped when Aru/Fuglsang attack him? Then what?
I think Astana was presented with a sure thing, low risk, high reward play and they took it. At the end of the day, they are still only 18 seconds down to Froome with 2 weeks to go and Thomas out of the race. They have a good grip on 2nd, maintain a gap over Bardet.
In my mind, Aru isn't going to beat Froome straight up. He needs to have Froome have a bad day (or crash), but at the same time he also needs to hold off Bardet. Those 33 seconds he currently still holds on Bardet are really valuable and he shouldn't be looking to give those up just to eek a few seconds on Froome. You just gotta be realistic at some point.