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Re: TDF 9 4600m of vertical-explosions coming up on the "Cat" Climb? [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
H- wrote:


Want to see Aru and Fulgsang refuse to work, then Froome will too, and NQ comes back. How stupid would Astana look then? Got a gap on the climb and then piss it away. Do you really think you might see this happen? Can you imagine what Vino would do to them if they did that?



This. In cycling you always seek to narrow the odds. Aru and Fuglsang narrowed the odds.

I chuckle at everyone who suggests that Froome would have worked if Aru and Fuglsang hadn't. That's not how bike racing works. If you want the GC leader to do work, send someone dangerous up the road. No one dangerous was able to get up the road, and it wasn't going to happen after the crest of the climb. There was no dropping Froome at that point. So you might as well stick a dagger in Quintana. And then hope a chink in Froome's nearly impenetrable armor appears sometime in the (considerable) remaining stages.


Let's look at this another way. Bardet is up the road, Froome in the middle, Quintana behind. Quintana is on fried legs from the Giro, but he's still "kind of close enough to worry about". Bardet, is fresh and a threat for the win. In week 3 when everyone is on fried legs, maybe Quintana is more of a threat. By driving hard, Aru+Fuglsang are eliminating as much as they can future threats from Bardet and Quintana (and Martin). Froome would be motivated to do the same rather than let Bardet get more of a lead and Quintana/Martin get closer. So everyone in that group kind of had to hammer hard for the same reasons.
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Jul 10, 17 6:35
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Re: TDF 9 4600m of vertical-explosions coming up on the "Cat" Climb? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Some fans were frustrated that Aru and Fulgsang didn't try taking turns to attack Froome in the last 15 km, but if you gameplay it, looks like a bad gamble. First, for them its a three week tour going for GC not a stage win, so important to make time on Quintana and Martin and not lose any to Bardet, and second they've just raced hard over 4700 vertical metres. Only Aru knows how his legs felt at the end of the stage, but for sure Froome will be marking him and likely with the fatigue it's a major ask for him to make a killer attack that Froome or Uran cannot chase down. Worse, as soon as he tries that attack, everyone in the group starts dicking around and/or making their own attacks, all cooperation is blown to bits, the Quintana/Martin group behind starts coming back at him, and Bardet makes ground ahead. As always, pick your battles carefully.
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Re: TDF 9 4600m of vertical-explosions coming up on the "Cat" Climb? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
trail wrote:
H- wrote:


Want to see Aru and Fulgsang refuse to work, then Froome will too, and NQ comes back. How stupid would Astana look then? Got a gap on the climb and then piss it away. Do you really think you might see this happen? Can you imagine what Vino would do to them if they did that?



This. In cycling you always seek to narrow the odds. Aru and Fuglsang narrowed the odds.

I chuckle at everyone who suggests that Froome would have worked if Aru and Fuglsang hadn't. That's not how bike racing works. If you want the GC leader to do work, send someone dangerous up the road. No one dangerous was able to get up the road, and it wasn't going to happen after the crest of the climb. There was no dropping Froome at that point. So you might as well stick a dagger in Quintana. And then hope a chink in Froome's nearly impenetrable armor appears sometime in the (considerable) remaining stages.


Let's look at this another way. Bardet is up the road, Froome in the middle, Quintana behind. Quintana is on fried legs from the Giro, but he's still "kind of close enough to worry about". Bardet, is fresh and a threat for the win. In week 3 when everyone is on fried legs, maybe Quintana is more of a threat. By driving hard, Aru+Fuglsang are eliminating as much as they can future threats from Bardet and Quintana (and Martin). Froome would be motivated to do the same rather than let Bardet get more of a lead and Quintana/Martin get closer. So everyone in that group kind of had to hammer hard for the same reasons.

Yup, you play the odds and look at the probable outcome after the stage, and the possible outcomes as a result of it at the end of the tour.

By Aru and Fuglsang working with Froome they assured that Bardet would not gain time, and also assured that they would gain time on Quintana and Martin. Those were sure thing outcomes of their actions the instant they committed to it, and the benefit was huge to Aru in that he solidifies his podium spot and also opens up Fuglsang for a podium spot.

If Aru and Fuglsang didn't work with Froome they are taking a HUGE gamble. They aren't sure how Froome is going to react...maybe he just sits up and lets the Martin/Quintana group catch up...and also lets Bardet get away thinking he can make up the time later? That would be a huge loss for Aru/Fuglsang if that happened. Or maybe Froome does do work at the front, it still allows Bardet to get some time, it allows Quintana/Martin to lose less time, and Froome doesn't get dropped when Aru/Fuglsang attack him? Then what?

I think Astana was presented with a sure thing, low risk, high reward play and they took it. At the end of the day, they are still only 18 seconds down to Froome with 2 weeks to go and Thomas out of the race. They have a good grip on 2nd, maintain a gap over Bardet.

In my mind, Aru isn't going to beat Froome straight up. He needs to have Froome have a bad day (or crash), but at the same time he also needs to hold off Bardet. Those 33 seconds he currently still holds on Bardet are really valuable and he shouldn't be looking to give those up just to eek a few seconds on Froome. You just gotta be realistic at some point.
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Re: TDF 9 4600m of vertical-explosions coming up on the "Cat" Climb? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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If he locked his wheel in the previous turn, then it makes sense where he ends up. Kind of like a slalom skier. You have to set up during this gate to enter and come out of the next gate. If you set up wrong in this gate, you might make it through this one, but you don't have a chance in the next gate. If something locked up before we see the video it makes sense where Porte is on the left side heading for the inside. That's the only thing I can think of. When the video starts in this article:

You guessed it!
From a Dan Martin interview:

"Richie locked up his back wheel, went straight into the grass, just wiped out, and his bike just collected me. I had nowhere to go,” Martin said after crossing the line in Chambery.
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Re: TDF 9 4600m of vertical-explosions coming up on the "Cat" Climb? [H-] [ In reply to ]
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H- wrote:
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then watching fulsang and aru pulling for froome. it's like. wtf are you guys doing. watch the last 10-14k. froome's longest pull was 20-25 seconds. all his other pulls were sooooo short compared to everyone else. he played aru and fulsang haaaard.
i'm happy to see nairo drop in the standings. he has no value add in stage races.


Those two paragraphs don't make sense. Pick one.

Want to see Nairo drop, then you can't complain that Aru and Fulgsang worked to keep their margin on him. (I'm sure Aru and Fulgsang are happy to see NQ drop as well.)

Want to see Aru and Fulgsang refuse to work, then Froome will too, and NQ comes back. How stupid would Astana look then? Got a gap on the climb and then piss it away. Do you really think you might see this happen? Can you imagine what Vino would do to them if they did that?


Fulgsang loses his job if he doesn't smash it for Aru. Period. 2 weeks left.
Last edited by: McNulty: Jul 10, 17 13:32
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Re: TDF 9 4600m of vertical-explosions coming up on the "Cat" Climb? [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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McNulty wrote:
Fulgsang loses his job if he doesn't smash it for Aru. Period. 2 weeks left.

nope, fuglsang signed a 2 year contract extension with astana after the dauphine (likely at an improved pay grade) so his job is secure whatever happens

aru on the other hand is out of contract at the end of the year and seeking a good result to bump his pay grade.

not sure this is particularly relevant to the day's tactics, though it could be over the next 2 weeks
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Re: TDF 9 4600m of vertical-explosions coming up on the "Cat" Climb? [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
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ahhchon wrote:
honestly, the stage was exciting, but sometimes the finish dulls it.

i'm tired of this "don't attack yellow bla bla bla". it's a damn race. part of the race is having your shit together. i didn't see froome etc wait for dan martin after the crash. they all knew about it (uran, bardet, was behind porte), plus there is no way you didn't hear that crash.

If the race was on, as in the GC attacks were happening, then I would agree with you. But at the time, all the GC guys were waiting while sitting behind the Sky train. If GC gaps had already formed, then by all means, tough shit, just like it was for Martin as he crashed after GC guys had been dropped. Same goes on a sprinter stage if you flat with 5 km to go...the peloton is not going to slow down for you because the race for the stage is on. But 50 km out...you have more forgiveness.

Maybe the other GC guys should be blaming themselves for not attacking earlier and forcing a situation like this instead of just sitting in until the very end of the last climb. I mean...it's a damn race...right?
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Re: TDF 9 4600m of vertical-explosions coming up on the "Cat" Climb? [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Jason N wrote:
ahhchon wrote:
honestly, the stage was exciting, but sometimes the finish dulls it.

i'm tired of this "don't attack yellow bla bla bla". it's a damn race. part of the race is having your shit together. i didn't see froome etc wait for dan martin after the crash. they all knew about it (uran, bardet, was behind porte), plus there is no way you didn't hear that crash.


If the race was on, as in the GC attacks were happening, then I would agree with you. But at the time, all the GC guys were waiting while sitting behind the Sky train. If GC gaps had already formed, then by all means, tough shit, just like it was for Martin as he crashed after GC guys had been dropped. Same goes on a sprinter stage if you flat with 5 km to go...the peloton is not going to slow down for you because the race for the stage is on. But 50 km out...you have more forgiveness.

Maybe the other GC guys should be blaming themselves for not attacking earlier and forcing a situation like this instead of just sitting in until the very end of the last climb. I mean...it's a damn race...right?

Hindsight is 20/20, but knowing how sketchy that decent was, the one rider that should have gone on a crazy attack with 1K to go to the summit should have been Richie Porte since he was the least technically strong descender. This would have given him cleaner lines down the mountain that doing it in close proximity with others while having to stay in contact due to the GC battle. But, maybe he was done and like everyone else they could not keep up with Froome over the Mont du Chat. So then they were stuck having to pace off him on the descent. The front guy gets to pick his line. Everyone else are trying to stay in contact, but don't get to pick their line. I think Fuglsang on the second half of the descent had enough of having to react to everyone else's line and dropped back a fair distance so he could pick his lines. Commentators were saying that he was risking losing contact (and he had) but he was able to lay down the hammer to re attach when it got safer. HIndsight and our monday morning QBing is 20/20, but also the riders would have been influenced by the nature of that descent during the dry Dauphine which was different than the damp TdF. I believe at the Dauphine they were not so tightly bunched starting the descent either. That's a big diff on the relative sketchiness of the descent.
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Re: TDF 9 4600m of vertical-explosions coming up on the "Cat" Climb? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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To inject anot her debate topic into this thread, thought I had yesterday when talking to a fellow cyclist fan coworker about the crash...

Is it any less likely that Richie would have locked up his wheel if he had been riding on disc brakes? Full disclosure I've never ridden a disc brake road bike so not speaking from direct experience so I could be off base, but just going with what I've read on better control, modulation, etc...

Perhaps another piece of ammo for discs to find their way onto more guys bikes in the pro peloton, at least during stages with treacherous, sinuous, narrow, possibly wet mountain stages?
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Re: TDF 9 4600m of vertical-explosions coming up on the "Cat" Climb? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Hate to bring this thread back up but I missed Lance's podcast about stage 9. He (and he mentions Hincape) thought Astana pulling Froome was insane (just before the 20 minute mark). Earlier in the podcast he has some fun comments, and thoughts about Froome and his gearing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLdNQgNzhRE


devashish_paul wrote:
trail wrote:
H- wrote:


Want to see Aru and Fulgsang refuse to work, then Froome will too, and NQ comes back. How stupid would Astana look then? Got a gap on the climb and then piss it away. Do you really think you might see this happen? Can you imagine what Vino would do to them if they did that?



This. In cycling you always seek to narrow the odds. Aru and Fuglsang narrowed the odds.

I chuckle at everyone who suggests that Froome would have worked if Aru and Fuglsang hadn't. That's not how bike racing works. If you want the GC leader to do work, send someone dangerous up the road. No one dangerous was able to get up the road, and it wasn't going to happen after the crest of the climb. There was no dropping Froome at that point. So you might as well stick a dagger in Quintana. And then hope a chink in Froome's nearly impenetrable armor appears sometime in the (considerable) remaining stages.


Let's look at this another way. Bardet is up the road, Froome in the middle, Quintana behind. Quintana is on fried legs from the Giro, but he's still "kind of close enough to worry about". Bardet, is fresh and a threat for the win. In week 3 when everyone is on fried legs, maybe Quintana is more of a threat. By driving hard, Aru+Fuglsang are eliminating as much as they can future threats from Bardet and Quintana (and Martin). Froome would be motivated to do the same rather than let Bardet get more of a lead and Quintana/Martin get closer. So everyone in that group kind of had to hammer hard for the same reasons.
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Re: TDF 9 4600m of vertical-explosions coming up on the "Cat" Climb? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Hindsight is 20/20, but knowing how sketchy that decent was, the one rider that should have gone on a crazy attack with 1K to go to the summit should have been Richie Porte since he was the least technically strong descender. This would have given him cleaner lines down the mountain that doing it in close proximity with others while having to stay in contact due to the GC battle. But, maybe he was done and like everyone else they could not keep up with Froome over the Mont du Chat. So then they were stuck having to pace off him on the descent. The front guy gets to pick his line. Everyone else are trying to stay in contact, but don't get to pick their line.

I have to imagine that Porte didn't have it in him to attack Froome during the last few km of the climb. If there was any time to attack Froome, it would be on the hardest climb right after Froome burned a match bridging back up and Porte had a few moments of rest as Martin called off Aru's attack.

Or maybe Aru's attack put all of those guys into the red, and Froome was actually in better shape because he TT'd it back up to the group rather than jumping hard?

But in general, I agree that coming over the climb first allows you to pick your own line, and that makes a huge difference in a narrow descent. Kudos to Bardet for actually getting around Froome and controlling his own destiny. Easily could have been him instead of, or with Martin if he hung back.
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