Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ?

Jul 7, 17 14:47

Post #1 of 24 (3345 views)

Stage Profile does not look like anything major to break up the GC guys and enough for non sprinter stage hunters:

I would think BMC has cards to play with Greg VanAvermaet. I don't think the GC guys will gun for this one, or maybe I am wrong.

Here is the last climb. Nothing that "steep" in a TdF context. Main climb is around 750m over 12K

I am going with a breakaway sticking. No change in GC unless Contador and crew go ballistic from 90K out. I do think this will be much more interesting than the snoozefest sprinter stages we just saw where you only have to tune in the last 20K or so to get the full race recap.

The next day you have the Col de la Biche, Grande Colomiere and the Monte du Chat (used this year in the Dauphine), all steeper than Alpe d'Huez, but a touch shorter. If the GC guys don't need to fight too hard on Saturday, I would imagine they will save the work for Sunday

Last edited by: devashish_paul: Jul 7, 17 14:54

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 15:12

Post #2 of 24 (3321 views)

Very much looking forward to stage 8, certainly after a few flat stages, some guys will have been saving their breakaway/stage winning legs. The last climb is a cat 1, is that enough to shift the possibilities to more of a pure climber than a guy like GVA?

Pierre rolland? Majka now that bora doesn't have Pete to focus on? Certainly there are some GC contenders who need to make up good chunks of time, I don't see why this isn't a good opportunity to play some tactical chess vs sky and see what happens.

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 15:15

Post #3 of 24 (3314 views)

The one thing that could draw out the GC attacks will be how technical the descents are off the penultimate climb. I could see a good climber/descender go for it there.

Jack

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Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 15:42

Post #4 of 24 (3289 views)

I am already on record. THIS is the stage where the Breakaway sticks. not cause it's awesome (it WILL be awesome; Phil Gil, Voelkler, GVA, Majka (?), etc) but because all GC'ers will be keeping their powder dry for Sunday.

Froome might even surrender the jersey (for one day) if it's the right opportunity.

it's a shame ..... this could have been one of those rollicking Sagan days. kinda like Hushov in 2012 (?).

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [dsmallwood] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 16:18

Post #5 of 24 (3251 views)

dsmallwood wrote:

I am already on record. THIS is the stage where the Breakaway sticks. not cause it's awesome (it WILL be awesome; Phil Gil, Voelkler, GVA, Majka (?), etc) but because all GC'ers will be keeping their powder dry for Sunday.

Froome might even surrender the jersey (for one day) if it's the right opportunity.

it's a shame ..... this could have been one of those rollicking Sagan days. kinda like Hushov in 2012 (?).

This would be the perfect Sagan day, but alas. Definitely agree that the studs on the GC need to keep the powder dry for Sunday....which makes this the perfect day when Contador just throws caution to the wind, sends Mollema up the road early and then attacks with Quintana to try to bridge up to the GVA/Phil G breakaway. We can only hope

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 17:16

Post #6 of 24 (3207 views)

Yes, this would have been a day to see if Sagan would try to put distance between himself and the sprinters for the Green Jersey. Alas.

Someone who isn't a threat for the final GC will win from a break but by less than a minute.

Rolland or Uran.

"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 17:33

Post #7 of 24 (3194 views)

I think what might be interesting is to see how the break forms. This is one of those stages where you usually see 25+ guys try to get into the break and the GC gives them a big leash. But because the GC is so close among the top 35, the break might get shut down a few times before something actually sticks, and the racing might be really hard early on.

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 18:17

Post #8 of 24 (3164 views)

I predict a solo breakaway on the last climb that sticks. I wish it were Richie Porte, but I highly doubt it will be. Maybe Fabio Aru again?

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 19:31

Post #9 of 24 (3122 views)

Given that Contador says Sunday's stage is the hardest this year, I'd be surprised if he attacked. Then again, he could be setting it up...

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [FatandSlow] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 20:33

Post #10 of 24 (3080 views)

FatandSlow wrote:

Given that Contador says Sunday's stage is the hardest this year, I'd be surprised if he attacked. Then again, he could be setting it up...

Maybe he is hoping he does something on Saturday since his last time up Monte du Chat at the Dauphine he lost 1 min on Froome and Porte:

Saturday seems like a good day to send Mollema and Pantano up the road in the break and stay back with Zubeldia and search for a moment when he can take off with Zubeldia and have Mollema drop back and try to help and bridge up. Not sure how many stages have the right profile for Trek (or any other team) to do something like this. Man it sucks not having Sagan around to go nuts on this stage.

Last edited by: devashish_paul: Jul 7, 17 20:55

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 21:17

Post #11 of 24 (3054 views)

Cummings sort of stage?

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 21:53

Post #12 of 24 (3033 views)

A12k climb followed by another 12k of basically flat. Definitely not a pure climbers stage with 6 k of modest down hill and another 6 k with only another 100m of climbing. I am guessing no GC shakeup (basically a GC parade).

Break of 12 goes and someone, who is more of a Ardennes Classics guy, wins the sprint from a group of 3. I think 12k of climbing with 7-8% pitches is beyond a Sagan style rider. Simon Gerrands or a free-range Valverde would be perfect for this, but you can't win if ya ain't racing. Majka would be a great choice, but I think he will be more of a GC threat.

I am going to go with Baeklands (spelled wrong, but from AG2R) or someone from either Lotto team because I don't think they have much of a GC hope. Rolland would be an outside guess. Uran is too high on GC.

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 22:46

Post #13 of 24 (3016 views)

BMC send Van Avermaet up the road in the break away, Porte bridges up on the climb and gets a tow to the finish, gaining about 30 seconds on the skybots. Or maybe not.
To me it'll be a breakaway today with the usual suspects like DeGent, but the GC will light up on the climb and the second best group of climbers (Contador, Martin, Majka etc) will drop 30-50 seconds on the way up to the main players.

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [toecutter] [ In reply to ]

Jul 7, 17 23:17

Post #14 of 24 (3001 views)

Nobody has mentioned Fulsgsang?
This is one of those stages where the break will prolly stick.

res, non verba

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [RoYe] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 17 5:34

Post #15 of 24 (2893 views)

50 man break is broken in two and around 30 seconds between the front of the peloton and the remaining 35 or so. GVA in the front group. Peloton 3.30 min back. This next two days should be void of the snoozer theme!

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 17 6:00

Post #16 of 24 (2872 views)

at the rate the Demare gruppetto is going they will be eliminated. But just watch the ASO give them a pass since Demare is in there.

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 17 6:19

Post #17 of 24 (2860 views)

I think I am the only idiot on ST watching the TdF and not overtraining on Saturday AM! Talansky bridging across to the GVA group? Go C'dale!

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 17 6:47

Post #18 of 24 (2838 views)

I'm not able to watch, but the tour tracker app said something about froome going off the road? What happened there? Also it hasn't updated, talansky is now in the GVA group?

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [imswimmer328] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 17 7:15

Post #19 of 24 (2814 views)

imswimmer328 wrote:

I'm not able to watch, but the tour tracker app said something about froome going off the road? What happened there? Also it hasn't updated, talansky is now in the GVA group?

Froome and Thomas went off the road, but there was grass and they managed to stay up and get back up. Peloton slowed down to let the yellow jersey re attach

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 17 7:31

Post #20 of 24 (2798 views)

Dam you Baelants, ruined my day by getting dropped. Going to go with Pauwels now, though Gesink would save my stage prediction.

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [grumpier.mike] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 17 11:44

Post #21 of 24 (2707 views)

That Calmejane was cramping up with a handful of kms to go, I thought it was gonna end in tears,
The peloton averaged 47kph during the first 90 km!
No change in the gc, but tomorrow things will get interesting with lots climbing, including the Mont du Chat

res, non verba

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [RoYe] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 17 11:51

Post #22 of 24 (2696 views)

Randomly inserting post here, RoYe......

Does anyone know the background on why someone paints dick artwork on the road at every Tour de France? Are Frenchies just weird like that?

Cheers,

thechromedome
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Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [grumpier.mike] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 17 12:26

Post #23 of 24 (2665 views)

grumpier.mike wrote:

Dam you Baelants, ruined my day by getting dropped. Going to go with Pauwels now, though Gesink would save my stage prediction.

All in a all a good day of entertainment/watching. Tomorrow, hopefully a bit of a GC explosion. Is it me, or does Dan Martin seem on fire. I think he is the best guy there outside of Froome. Even today, he took a little dig in there. Contador did not play poker with his talk about tomorrow being the toughest day. Looks like him and the rest of the GC guys all sat in behind the Sky train and saved it for tomorrow.

Re: Letour Stage 8 ~climbing: GC shake out/ambush/breakaway ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Jul 8, 17 13:33

Post #24 of 24 (2639 views)

Did Demare make it to the finish under the cutoff time?

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