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Re: EPO doesn't work (so says the lancet) [davros] [ In reply to ]
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davros wrote:
[200 to reliably detect 3%

I'm not quite following. You're fine with the 3% shown from the maximal power test with population size 48, along with the reported P values from those test - indicating statistical significance.

But you think for the real-world test due to the increased variation of environmental factors that a large population would be needed to show that same 3% given the much wider variation in individual performance while ascending Ventoux? I guess that would make sense. I think you just have to leave open the possibility of other factors other than population size.
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Re: EPO doesn't work (so says the lancet) [trail] [ In reply to ]
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Both are appropriate testing conditions, given proper randomization; the variability of each group would be accounted for during analysis.
However, the method you proposed would be a step they could've taken to improve the power (and reduce false negatives); similar to, but not quiet equal to, increasing the sample size.
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Re: EPO doesn't work (so says the lancet) [Nonojohn] [ In reply to ]
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Nonojohn wrote:
Both are appropriate testing conditions, given proper randomization; the variability of each group would be accounted for during analysis.
However, the method you proposed would be a step they could've taken to improve the power (and reduce false negatives); similar to, but not quiet equal to, increasing the sample size.


I'm not sure you can claim that. We don't really know the Ventoux testing conditions. Here is the description:

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Approximately 12 days (range 10–16) after the last dose participants competitively climbed Mont Ventoux (Vaucluse département, France) in an open course via Bédoin

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Weather conditions on Mont Ventoux (afternoon of June 19, 2016) in Bedoin were around 20°C and 40 km/h northern wind, and at the top were around 5°C and 85 km/h northern wind, without precipitation.


It sounds like they climbed from the south. With a strong headwind. If I'd mass-started that climb you know what I'm doing? I'm parking myself behind the leader. And then trying to come around him in the final few hundred meters. So even if I'm capable of way more time trial power, that wouldn't be apparent from a difference in finish time.

If the climb was time-trialled, say with 1:00 gaps, then differences in wind gusts could easily massively affect times. Was the wind increasing with time? If it was a time trial, were time-trial drafting rules in effect?

Throwing a large population at the problem only helps if these types of variations are mean-centered. Things like changing wind or group tactics probably aren't mean-centered. So throwing people at the problem doesn't necessarily help. You might need a longitudinal type study were climbs on lots of different days with all kinds of different weather conditions are used. And various mass start tactics are only averaged out over tons of different mass starts.
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Re: EPO doesn't work (so says the lancet) [trail] [ In reply to ]
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Reply may have been to a different post:
Re: What I don't understand is the protocol. T hey divided the 48 into two groups, gave half of them EPO for 8 weeks, then sent them up the mountain.
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Re: EPO doesn't work (so says the lancet) [Nonojohn] [ In reply to ]
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I think lots of people on the thread are showing their biases here.
It isn't a definitive study, it doesn't prove that EPO does nothing, and maybe it could have been done better.

BUT it does give an indication that EPO isn't the wonder drug that we all assume it is. They clearly aren't going to pump them full of EPO and possibly kill people in their study. They also can't recruit pros, as then the pro would be banned for 2 years!

Generally I think the study seems fair. The results at least show that EPO isn't going to make an amateur into a pro. If they had shown that with EPO they were 5 mins faster up Ventoux, I doubt people would be complaining that it was underpowered.
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Re: EPO doesn't work (so says the lancet) [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Rappstar wrote:
davros wrote:
...Whether a cheat would be happy with 3% improvement I don't know, but it would take a pro from 6 to 6.2W/kg plus whatever extra benefits of higher training load etc.


3 PERCENT?! That's massive... Some years, over nearly 100hrs of racing, the TDF is won by less than a minute. And sometimes by less than 10sec.

At the last tour, the difference in winning time was 4min - or 7/100ths of a %. So in that context, 3%? Yeah, that's massive.

3%, more imporantantly is a huge 13.5W on 450W. That's more meaningful than the "small" percent number
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