However you want to phrase it. The bigger concern is not the net outflow of people but the net outflow of tax base and earners at a much higher rate.

I saw the writing on the wall in 2009 when I left and moved back home to Louisville. During that time my now wife left moved to Louisville. Her sister and brother in law are moving. Her parents are gone in 2-3 years. 5 of my friends and their families have moved in the last 3 years. All of these people were high earners, doctors, business owners etc. Illinois as a state is so messed up. We are talking about moving and neither one of us will even consider moving back to Chicago and she spent her entire life there before moving here 3 years ago.

So, once you factor in that you greatly accelerated your tax hit, you would have been better off had you never gotten out?

according to this the majority of people who are leaving are the traditionally under or unemployed.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-chicago-census-population-loss-met-20170322-story.html

I'm just reporting what I read last year ... anecdotally the people I know who are leaving are the types you don't want to leave. Of a group of 12 couples from our 20's 3 remain in state. The people who left doctors lawyers traders.

Intuitively you'd think that most of the people who would be moving is who you describe, and obviously there is that dynamic. If it were up to me or if I found a job in another state we would be moving ASAP. The wife and I, while not rich, do pretty well. People who can leave the South and West sides of the city and downstate places like Peoria and Decatur are leaving in search of new jobs. People with tech skills or other "professionals" are seeing growth in Chicago at a pretty good rate.

The move to make the minimum wage 15 per hour is going to impact this as well as small business either close or stop hiring "you want fries with that" types in favor of the kiosks.

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/...ore-income-tax-base/

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/...rs-fleeing-illinois/

I can't speak for the rest of the state, but Chicago is quite a conundrum. Property taxes are at an all time high, yet the real estate market is humming along pretty well. Our block has seen 6 homes sell for over $1.3mm in the last 12 months. Some friends of ours put their condo on the market last week and had 18 offers in 3 days and ultimately sold for $30k over list, banking a very hefty gain on sale less than 4 years of living in it.

The professional job market appears to be very strong. While taxes are painful, the total cost of living in comparable markets (NYC or SF) is still exceedingly high. There aren't a lot of cities that offer the cultural diversity, entertainment and economy that Chicago does. We have friends that moved to Michigan 2 years ago. She quit her job assuming she would find another in MI, 2 years later they are moving back because she got 2 offers in Chicago in 3 weeks of looking and none after 2 years in MI.

No doubt there are extremely well documented problems, but Chicago still has much to offer.