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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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BTW, you need to come down here and train with us...

Some day. Right now I have two weeks left in Utah before heading back home to Idaho. I'm trying to get as much rolling in as I can before I go. I don't think the jiu jitsu scene is all that great in Idaho. (There is a gym at least. My 14 year old is going to start training with me when I get back.)











"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [BCtriguy1] [ In reply to ]
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BCtriguy1 wrote:
Why, or how, are any young people, aside from the absurdly wealthy, trying to buy a home in Sydney at all?

Well, fewer are. Those who do go to extraordinary lengths. Median incomes are close to the world's highest, interest rates are at historic lows and yet Sydney residents pay the second highest proportion of their income for housing in the world (after Hong Kong). Earn a good income, commit to giving it all to the bank, and you might get your toe in. Then hope interest rates don't return to historic norms. Plenty of evidence for those calling the top of the market here.
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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [oldandslow] [ In reply to ]
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Shiiiiiit. I had to whip out a calculator to do the math on this. We bought a small (1700sqft) fixer upper on 2 acres with a 1500 sqft barn/garage/workshop on 2 acres with deeded lake rights a 2 minute walk away (to the 13th largest lake in US/Canada) for....drumroll...110KUSD in 2010. Granted, there was (and still is) a lot of fixin' to do. But I could also pay it all off in 1 year if I wanted to, haha.

if I was sitting on a million in appreciated equity I'd cash that shit out, invest in VTSAX, move 100 miles from the coast and retire.
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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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Duffy wrote:
A buddy of mine married an Australian chick from Gold Coast.

We're going to outlaw that. Then we're going to build a great, big, beautiful wall...


Duffy wrote:
I understand Gold Coast isnt cheap either.

Nowhere's really cheap anymore. All Australian cities are nice places to live. The Gold Coast is nice (in its way). Real estate markets get arbitraged. Anywhere cheap would get flooded with economic refugees from godzone. Soon you'll see desperate Australians buying up cheap property in Santa Barbara and marrying American chicks.

Now you've gone and made me write 'chicks'. I'm having flashbacks to 1973.
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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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Same diff...
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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [Bone Idol] [ In reply to ]
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Be careful with the sexist tone, there is an internet police dude roaming around. I just got called out for calling a sissy and sissy!
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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [SailorSam] [ In reply to ]
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if I was sitting on a million in appreciated equity I'd cash that shit out, invest in VTSAX, move 100 miles from the coast and retire.

... unless the jobs in your area pay more than 200K, and those jobs aren't available 100 miles from the coast AND you have kids who are planning on going to college.
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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [BCtriguy1] [ In reply to ]
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BCtriguy1 wrote:
Why, or how, are any young people, aside from the absurdly wealthy, trying to buy a home in Sydney at all?

Same as Vancouver. People buy with no expectation of ever paying off the mortgage. Instead that are effectively renters, with their landlord being the Bank. Many young people feel (erroneously) that this is smarter than regular renting because the premium they pay in terms of interest on a $1m mortgage will be off-set by capital gains when they sell the house to the next person for a significantly higher price. This is a classic manifestation of the Greater Fool Theory in economics & game theory - the theory says its OK to make a foolish purchase that is above an object intrinsic value as long as you are confident that there are bigger fools that will pay even more. Sadly its like a pyramid scheme - at some point it will crash and leave someone holding the bag of massive debt on a low value asset. Even more sadly, that will cause the gov't to intervene and use tax dollars to bail out those that got into trouble. That means that people were gambling with house money. Some were lucky and got out early and made a fortune, some weren't lucky and got bailed out and those that were not gambling and instead contributed to the tax base get to pay for it all. Echoes of 2008 all over again.

Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's
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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [Bone Idol] [ In reply to ]
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Sydney median house price is now AUD1.24M. That's across an entire, large city. There's 78 suburbs where it is more than $2M.

The Bay Area is SF's premium housing, right? My neighbourhood is nice, but not Sydney's most expensive. Median house price here is now AUD4.2M. Fancy locations like Darling Point, it's $5.7M.

Young people trying to buy their first home in Sydney start to weep when they hear that Americans complain about a nice house costing $800k.


Clarification, the Bay Area is an 8 county area around the Bay Area, including some outlying areas that are much less expensive. When one does currency conversion, both places show pretty similar levels of crazy. Around here, Facebook/Google/Apple/VC millionaires/billionaires are driving housing, what is keeping Sydney so high?
Last edited by: oldandslow: May 26, 17 7:14
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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [oldandslow] [ In reply to ]
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oldandslow wrote:
Around here, Facebook/Google/Apple/VC millionaires are driving housing, what is keeping Sydney so high?

The royalties from the Crocodile Dundee franchise made many people into millionaires. That, and the huge numbers of Asian investors & immigrants buying up real estate.

Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's
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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [Guffaw] [ In reply to ]
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We never really had a housing crash in 2008 in Canada like in the States. This makes me somewhat more worried. The conditions seem in place for bad things to happen. I recently got a notice from the company that holds one of my RRSPs that they are going to start engaging in loaning the funds to other companies so they can use them as collateral for other business. The note says the other company has assets to fully back this up. Haha. If they did they wouldn't need to borrow assets to use as collateral. I will be moving that money elsewhere. I suspect it is being used to finance mortgages.

Guffaw wrote:
BCtriguy1 wrote:
Why, or how, are any young people, aside from the absurdly wealthy, trying to buy a home in Sydney at all?


Same as Vancouver. People buy with no expectation of ever paying off the mortgage. Instead that are effectively renters, with their landlord being the Bank. Many young people feel (erroneously) that this is smarter than regular renting because the premium they pay in terms of interest on a $1m mortgage will be off-set by capital gains when they sell the house to the next person for a significantly higher price. This is a classic manifestation of the Greater Fool Theory in economics & game theory - the theory says its OK to make a foolish purchase that is above an object intrinsic value as long as you are confident that there are bigger fools that will pay even more. Sadly its like a pyramid scheme - at some point it will crash and leave someone holding the bag of massive debt on a low value asset. Even more sadly, that will cause the gov't to intervene and use tax dollars to bail out those that got into trouble. That means that people were gambling with house money. Some were lucky and got out early and made a fortune, some weren't lucky and got bailed out and those that were not gambling and instead contributed to the tax base get to pay for it all. Echoes of 2008 all over again.

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Last edited by: len: May 26, 17 7:40
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Re: I'm calling it, we're at the top. [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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Duffy wrote:
California is going to crash hard.

Yes it will. South Florida looks precarious as well. NYC has already crashed but many sellers are in the "denial" phase.
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