Duffy wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Duffy wrote:
But we've had worse droughts on the past.
If you look at historical rainfall totals and snowpack it's quite clear that our last drought was nothing special.
To say "well it wouldn't have been this dry but for AGW" is pure conjecture.
And now people are saying AGW will make it wetter.
Meanwhile the 150 year historical pattern of wet/dry hasn't really changed at all Can you really not see that all your doing above is making blind statements (aka blather)? That's not having an intelligent discussion about global warming.
Nope, I'm looking at actual measurements of rainfall and snowpack.
You're missing my point. Your statements may be correct (though I'm not sure about the scientific robustness of "hasn't really changed at all"), but they are not a discussion about global warming. You're just throwing stuff about.
Here is a more sensible discussion:
https://phys.org/...dy-oceans-years.html The 2015 analysis showed that the modern buoys now used to measure ocean temperatures tend to report slightly cooler temperatures than older ship-based systems, even when measuring the same part of the ocean at the same time. As buoy measurements have replaced ship measurements, this had hidden some of the real-world warming.
After correcting for this "cold bias," researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded in the journal
Science that the oceans have actually warmed 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.22 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade since 2000, nearly twice as fast as earlier estimates of 0.07 degrees Celsius per decade. This brought the rate of ocean temperature rise in line with estimates for the previous 30 years, between 1970 and 1999.
This eliminated much of the global warming hiatus, an apparent slowdown in rising surface temperatures between 1998 and 2012. Many scientists, including the International Panel on Climate Change, acknowledged the puzzling hiatus, while those dubious about global warming pointed to it as evidence that climate change is a hoax.
Climate change skeptics attacked the NOAA researchers and a House of Representatives committee subpoenaed the scientists' emails. NOAA agreed to provide data and respond to any scientific questions but refused to comply with the subpoena, a decision supported by scientists who feared the "chilling effect" of political inquisitions.
The new study, which uses independent data from satellites and robotic floats as well as buoys, concludes that the NOAA results were correct. The paper will be published Jan. 4 in the online, open-access journal
Science Advances.
"Our results mean that essentially NOAA got it right, that they were not cooking the books," said lead author Zeke Hausfather, a graduate student in UC Berkeley's Energy and Resources Group."