Yes Mo and Galen are in another league, however neither have peaked in the marathon either. Galen will prob run faster this year and mo would to if he focused on the marathon. Huge difference between 2:13 and 2:09 for example. We'll see how fast he is able to run but wouldn't be surprised if he is close to Galen with his rio time

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Are you suggesting in cold conditions he would beat top African marathon or 10 runners?

If so, absolutely not. World xc has been run is sub zero conditions, with snow, and the Africans don't slow down at all.

Brownlee is an excellent runner, but I just can't see him running 215.

I really meant the beating some Kenyans part it a bit tongue in cheek but could see a 2:15 under cool conditions. Alistair could easily drop several kilos and has a very good engine already. To be honest, his foot strike style worries me more than his fitness.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Oh fair enough!

It is an interesting question as to what his marathon potential is. The problem I see with the marathon is how unforgiving it is. If everything doesn't go right, it can be a long time before one gets another good chance at a fast time. Additionally, it seems a lot of people can get to twenty miles on a great pace without being a marathon specialist but it does seem to take someone with a real affinity for the distance to nail a fast time.

On a cooler flat course like say Rotterdam with not too much downhill, 2:15 is perhaps in the range for AB. Even Berlin in the fall is likely too warm for a "larger" guy

Honestly, I was pretty surprised that Rupp pulled off the bronze in the marathon at Rio (just seemed pretty big to do well in the heat....a good example is Paula Radcliffe's Olympic marathons that go bad in the heat vs cool)....Also I just assumed he had too much fast twitch (you have to if you can close the final lap in the 5000m and 10000m with Mo....Mo closes with a 53 second 400m in a 5000m). Mo ran 2:08 in London, but a bunch of people were saying what gives him a natural kick at the of a 1500m-10,000m, is just excess fast twitch fiber that is kind of useless in a marathon (it's not that he has bulk, its just some of that skinny fiber is optimized for 10-20 seconds). The guys who run 10,000m in his caliber with less kick run marathons in the 2:03.xx range

The thing is, Rupp isn't a 2:10 guy, more probably a 2:06 or something guy which makes his rio performance more understandable. Mo did a good marathon but is not known for time trialing in any race and could likely run a bit faster if he was conditioned fully in the marathon. Bekele and Geb both had slow and fast twitch.
As for the heat, it affects people differently and Galen is a fairly small guy who perhaps isn't so affected of heat. Not going to comment Paula as I don't think she has made a positive contribution to running.
If you look at kiprop you can see that muscle fiber isn't everything, and in the same way, weight isn't everything.
I don't know what Ali will run if he decides to do a mary, but wouldn't be surprised if it was sub 2:15, the same as I wouldn't be surprised if he ran sub 1:10 in the upcoming 70.3's.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Eamonn Martin was a big guy, apparently around 160 lbs, and he was a fast marathon (2h10) runner winning his first, which was London back in 1993 and won Chicago. He was a 10K track guy that moved up at the twilight of his running career (35 when he raced his first one).

Emil Zatopek (you might of heard of him) was a 'heavy' bloke (https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Emil_Z%C3%A1topek) and was a bit fast (he might of only run 2h20s but we are talking 1940s and early 50s...he won the Olympics, which highlights his quality for the time and ability).

I'm sure there are many others that didn't win things or weren't/aren't known, especially as a 2h10-15 marathon isn't too rare today.

Found a current 'heavy' dude (he's 27)...https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Luke_Puskedra, an American kid who is enormous for a runner at 6'4" and 167 lbs with a 2h10'24" marathon (2015 Chicago, 5th).

Dev not only has someone that large run under 2:10, the very first athlete to run under 2:10 was bigger than Ali. Derek Clayton was 187cm i.e. ~6' 1 1/2" and 72kg i.e. ~159 lb. He ran 2:09:36 at the Fukuoka Marathon, Japan in 1967 and he went on to run a 2:08:34 in Antwerp in 1969. Not too shabby for a big heavy guy;) I think your heat rejection theory is off. It's a ml/kg equation and the tiny guys often win that one just as the tiny climbers usually do in cycling ......but then there's Froome who has the ml/kg to make the watts needed.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Dammit. That's my height and lightest race weight. There goes that excuse...

In fairness, I could probably get within an hour of his time.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Well AB is definitely not mainstream in the US. Don't think he can be better at 70.3 but all indicates he is sort of moving on (little by little) from Olympic to focus on something else

I think that with the deep field at St George that the swim will get stretched in a long line. But I think that means that not many big gaps will open. So rank order will mater and especially speed to that first left turn buoy. But I don't think that Brownlee, Potts, Jan etc will open any large gaps on the field or Tim Don.

Didn't mean to imply he was mainstream in the US. No triathlete is. I was just suggesting he is probably more well known that the Ironman Champion. I'd estimate that Gwen is the most known current triathlete followed by Andy in the US.

As a 20+ year triathlete, I can't remember who won Kona, but I can the Olympics

Yes i'd say Gwen is the only one that's really "mainstream" per se.... AB may be more well known than Jan because of the Olympics, but I just see the sport so focused on IM here in the US that i wouldn't be surprised if it was the opposite. Regardless, and while on the subject, would be great to see AB and Jan go toe to toe.

Is Jan doing St. George too?

All depends on who's winning. Wellington was pretty well known in the U.K. cos she was winning Kona. AB is very well known cos he has a fast brother as well, they both won medals at successive Olympics, race aggressively making for a fantastic spectacle, have great personalities making them good subjects, and intelligent (AB was enrollled at Oxford for medicine before he switched focus to tri I believe). Gwen is known in the US cos she wins like AB, although she is perhaps more one dimensional in that it's mostly her run. The US men are unknown cos they're shit. Andy Potts is the only one anyone might be able to name cos he markets himself well but he's not exactly known for his wins. If there was a US guy winning the tri at the Olympics then U think he would be more well known than an average/good IM pro...look at Lucas V, for awhile when it looked like you had found someone he was all over the place and that was just based on potential at Olympic distance.

BTW, it is worlds apart when comparing Gwen and AB with respects to how mainstream they are in their respective countries. I would be surprised if 1% of the pop. could name/ID Gwen over here in the States. Back in the UK, AB would be recognized by maybe 50%+ of the general population, especially considering how well he did in SPOTY (this is a BBC institution).

I don't think he is racing in Utah. I was confabulating and a little mixed up with who I anticipate at 70.3 world champs. I just meant to suggest that with deeper fields you get more able to grab feet on the swim and fewer chances for distinct packs to form.

No but he will do Barcelona 70.3 where he will toe up against Patrik Nilsson. Will be a interesting race as they have almost identical splits the years they have won, but Jan had a lot faster T1 & 2.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Both Brownlees are also on the start list for ITU Yokohama, which is what - a week? after St George 70.3.

If AB races I think it will be as prep for Leeds - he won't want to lose that race - and then we won't see him in ITU the rest of the season.

I also see Richard "rip their arms off" Varga on the list. He ought to keep the swim pace "rich enough" to make a good T-1 split for the killer Bees. Will Javier be quick enough to make that break and if so how will his run stack up with the bees?

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Patrik has said that he is not in great condition. But I bet he will do really well! I'm psyched.

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Endurance coach | Physiotherapist (primary care) | Bikefitter | Swede

Yeah I saw that as well, hoping he is overstating it a bit as it will be he biggest competition to date. Would be awesome if they had a real dual. I think Patrik will be able to stay with frodo on the swim without that much of a difficulty and the bike should also be similar. If they were side by side in t2 it would ensure a great race

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Which race? Yoko? That's traditional been one of the softest bike courses in itu. Unless it's drastically changed it would take something weird for a break to stay away in yoko.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Looking back at the results for Yokohama since 2013 I don't see Richard Varga ever having done the race let alone doing it with the killer bees so perhaps that might influence how things go. I've got to think if Jonny wants to win the overall this year we will be gunning for some wins. Richard really does bring a certain dynamic to the swim and bike. I'm looking forward to the race.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.