I just don't see TO as a threat to anyone. He hasn't won a full distance in a LONG time and has won only 1 70.3 in 2 1/2 years. Not exactly a stellar record compared to so many others he is competing against.

Frodo, Kienle, Sanders, Lange are all VERY strong. That's before anyone considers Brownlee

I'm with you, speculation is pointless. Especially this time of year.

However, one thing I would disagree with is Lange... this year. I think he's going to come in feeling the pressure of the media, keep thinking that "if I bike a little better, I win"... then over-bike and destroy his run... this year. Next year.. watch the fuck out.

As for Hoff and TO... I think they both have a chance but it'll be mental. Maybe I'm crazy but I don't think it's physical ability keeping them from winning. I think they need to truly believe they can win when shit goes sideways and the going gets tough. And I think Hoff is closer to that belief than TO.

But what the fuck do I know.. I'm just a fan. (No pink)

T.O. is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy. I'm sure he has the mental capacity to deal with things going sideways and when the going gets tough.

I don't disagree with you there but just because he has Naval training, does that mean he has BETTER mental capacity than Jan, Sebi, Hoff, Lange, Rapp, etc. etc.

My opinion is no, it doesn't mean his is "better".

I'm a big Hoff fan and I would love for him to win, but I think that the competition is not bulldozed by his IM South Africa performance. The performance speaks for itself:

Swim: 49:14
Bike: 4:22:33
Run: 2:42:52

I think Jan's swimming prowess exceeds Ben's and their biking ability is about equal. The question becomes the run, a 2:42 is a serious throw down on an IM course. Have we ever really seen Jan challenged on a run though? In 2014 at IM Frankfurt he ran 2:43 while admitting to walking through every aid station. 2015 Jan ran 2:52 on his way to his first Kona title, but nobody was in his neighborhood. In 2016, Sebi pushed ran to run a 2:44. Is 2:44 the fastest Jan can do or if someone like Lange or Hoffman is on his shoulder, could he give a sub 2:40 performance? I'm not sure we've seen Jan give his best run, when the moment comes he tends to show up in a big way.

Lange is definitely a threat, without the penalty he would have been right on Jan's heels this year. Lange can swim, bike with the pack, and we certainly know he can run.

Every year I proclaim that it's the toughest field ever and I have to believe that is true. We went through a period of super bikers who could run 2:50-3:00. We have now come into the age where the super bikers can run sub 2:50. The window for people who run 2:50-3:00 to win Kona is gone. I believe Tim O'Donnell can run sub 2:50, but he hasn't shown us that yet. While the field becomes more competitive every year, the Americans are becoming a serious part of that mix.

When it comes to Lionel, he can make a difference in any race that he's in. Lionel continues to amazes us at every turn. If Lionel's swim has improved to the second pack swim level, he's a contender. I hope he changes his mind and shows up this year.

As always, it will be the deepest field ever this year even without Gomez and Brownlee.

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Team Zoot 2023

Quick note, somewhat relevant per some of the other threads on power, speed, etc in pro races.

Here's Ben's Strava file from IMSA - https://www.strava.com/activities/925751469

Basic takeaways:
avg power: 260w
"weighted" power: 270w
1st lap avg: 272w (roughly)
2nd lap avg: 249w (roughly)

This is not particularly dramatic wattage. I would certainly not put this in "uber-biker" terms. BUT, it also highlights the reality of Kona, which is that as the front group gets larger, the benefit of being in it goes up. This data is also consistent with other data Ben has posted. Last year, I believe, he was about 255w/265norm when he won here.

Jan, of course, won Kona in 2015 off of 265w avg. That's actually shockingly low for a guy his size, even given his attention to detail. He has never shared the data, but the TrainingPeaks guys did analysis of it on the broadcast and shared the numbers.

I'm not interested in debating the "rightness" of this, especially not in this thread; it simply is what it is. But what I think is the most interesting takeaway is that it's not really that guys are riding that much harder and then running fast (with a couple exceptions). It's more that the combination of equipment, position, large front groups, possibly vehicular interference, etc, is allowing guys are able to ride extremely fast on pretty low watts, which leaves them a lot fresher to start the run.

I'd say a big part of the reason why you had the "uber-bikers who won running 2:5X" is two-fold. The first is that the spread in positions and equipment was much wider than it is now. Guys didn't think tires mattered, didn't get bike fits, didn't wear aero helmets, etc. If you look at old galleries of the top-10/15 on the bike in Kona, it's shocking to see the disparity. That's gone now. But with that disparity, you had guys who through a combination of ability and savvy equipment choices were able to really use the bike as a weapon. But now, the bar has been raised. But it has a lot less to do with guys riding harder - I actually bet if you there were power files from Kona to the extent that they exist now going back 15 years, they'd look remarkably similar - and a lot more to do with parity of position/equipment.

The reason, I believe, that you are seeing so many more fast performances is that guys are able to ride really fast on LESS power, not more. Rather than the "uber-biker," we have the "techno-biker." And as more and more athletes fall into this category, the benefit of being in a big group grows.

The name of the game is - now - "who can whisper the loudest." Meaning, who can get to T2 as quickly as possibly on the fewest number of watts. Because with big groups - and more athletes being more slippery (and, especially, with virtually all of the championship venues being relatively fast courses) - the benefit on the clock of outriding someone is just not there. Whereas 10-15w used to translate into 5min+ leads, now it might net you a minute. If that.

In many races, plenty of guys outride guys who put out way more power thanks to the dynamics of the race.

As I said, the debate about whether or not this SHOULD be the case is another matter. All that matters, really, is that it is the case. And Ben figured this out. And has been able to adapt himself to suit it. Ben knows that fast swim + moderate effort ride + fast run is the most likely way to have success, especially in Kona. And he's trained himself - his improvement as a swimmer and runner has been remarkable - to do that.

I'd bet that Ben's power in SA was probably not much more - and I'd actually bet even less - than his very first Ironman win. I don't think we've come into an era where "super bikers" run sub-2:50. I think we've come to an era where being a superbiker no longer really matters, especially if you aren't a 1st pack swimmer. Kienle being the lone exception.

As Brett Sutton pointed out on Twitter, Ben has been incredibly impressive about adapting his skillset to meet the requirements of the sport. That's a much more subtle thing to pick up, but I think it's truly remarkable.

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"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

While I agree with you on the mental capacity. The resume speaks, after a win in Florianopolis a few years ago and a 70.3 TO hasn't posted a performance that could make me place a bet on Kona.

He's an extremely nice guy and accomplished triathlete, he has shown that mental toughness needed for the big showdown, but.... It comes down to talent (which he has and plenty but not of the likes of Frodeno on the run/bike, Keinle on the bike, Ben (run), Lange on the bike). He had a chance in 2015 when he had a performance of a lifetime coming 3rd to Frodo and Raelert, because he risked everything on the bike and had a ride of a lifetime, plus an outstanding run...

But watch that race carefully and you can see that the way that race played out TO gave absolutely everything that he had on the run, yet ye came at 2:55...

Now picture a Patrick Lange, a Ben, a Frodo, or even a Kienle who can all break 2:45 - 2:50 on the run and you have your answer.

I don't think realistically that TO has a sub 2:50 marathon in Kona, and that's what will take to win it moving forward.(at minimum, but I'd actually say more likely sub 2:45)

Very interesting, I didn't realize that they were riding at those wattages. So we're returning to the run being the ace in the hole? Is there a next wave of true uber-bikers who could break up the front of the bike pack? "Techno biker" and "who can whisper the loudest" should be the signature phrases of Kona 2017.

Can the new ITU wave create a completely different swim dynamic, which will subsequently blow up the front bike pack?

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Team Zoot 2023

I'd actually say that Patrick Lange is probably the biggest obstacle for 2017. If you eliminate Lange's penalty, the 2016 race becomes a whole lot more interesting.

With that said, the Kona precedent is certainly in full effect - the winner comes from the prior year's top-4 (or was a prior winner). And I'd say that Lange, Hoffman, Kienle, and Frodeno all should certainly be considered viable candidates for the win. But if I was to pick a winner right now (which is obviously foolish), I'd say Lange. As we saw three times with Crowie, it's just very hard to beat the fastest runner in the field if he's also a good swimmer and at least a capable biker, which Lange is.


Strong/fast running in Kona, ALWAYS serves you well.

I'd say REALLY watch out for Lange this year.

As for performances now, like have have in some other threads about, how you are going at this time of the year, does say a few things about where you are at, but it's still a long way to October!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

As I watched the race unfold at four in the morning Saturday night (don't ask), I was thinking how brilliant it was of Cameron Wurf to burn a match or two to get in the lead bike position to catch the moto benefit. For better or for worse, they were joined at his hip for 100 miles or so. Ben was 2-3 minutes back and I wondered just how much free speed he was losing from the draft. Anyway, Cameron ran a 3:11:44 so he ended up not being a factor. Do you think it would it have benefitted the Hoff to make it to the front?

The Kona numbers might look moderate (well they look huge to me) but the speed of the lead bike pack last year cracked many solid athletes. They either fell off the pack or their run was shot before it even started.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

I don't think so. Ironically, it was Michael Ferrari who posited most accurately (IMO) when he was discussing Lance's chances in Kona - it's a caloric issue. It's not fitness; it's caloric burn rate. I figure the benefit of the front group is about 10%. The issue is that - at these wattages - riding another 10% more power means you need an extra 400-500cal/hr. That's just impossible to manage on the run. There's no way to balance that. Especially not in the heat of Kona. I just don't see that, over a 4.5hr bike ride, an uber biker can overcome the calorie problem on the marathon.

As far as the "new ITU wave," that's been the argument after every Olympic cycle. And it has yet to materialize. I think you'll just see the current dynamic becoming even more true, because the front pack will get bigger, giving it even more benefit.

"Techno-biker" is my term. But "who can whisper the loudest" is borrowed from Slowman, who used it describe Mark Allen.

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"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

So in short; be a front pack swimmer, be aero smart and strong enough to hang on the bike and then be the fastest runner in the race - isn't that an ITU race ;)

The parallels are striking, of course you need to extremely fit but as you point out, you really only need to be fit and smart enough on the swim and bike to come off at the front for the run and unlike ITU for the point you make about the calorific intake, there is only a disadvantage to attempting to ride away from the field.

So ironman is now really a straight up running race.

The picture you paint here seems to fit quite nicely with Cameron Wurff pushing 305/315 AP/NP for a time only a few minutes faster than Hoff. https://www.strava.com/activities/925266349

I guess some of this can be explained by position and slipperyness, but I hadn't thought Cameron was very far off Hoff in terms of aero? Hoff was in a bike-pack all day, while Wurff was solo pretty much all the ride. 45w difference in NP yielding only 2-3 min advantage. Those were some HUGLEY expensive minutes!

That's interesting stuff. Especially considering the moto was as close to Wurf as it was. I'm not the only one to notice it either: https://twitter.com/...s/848471821879959555

Maybe that moto benefit is mainly urban legend.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

Largely true (and Potts got better at Kona when he decided to just swim and ride with the group), but you might note that Ben Hoffman took off on the front group in South Africa and Kienle comes from behind all the time. I still THINK Sanders should go to Kona and get more experience there and just go there off his half IM plan. If he can swim close to Kienle's speed maybe he can do something. I totally agree with Rapp that before every Olympics everyone says that the ITU guys will move up and transform IM racing, but everyone discounts that the guys who do well IM, in general are slightly different than the absolute top tier in ITU. Enough people have pointed out that outside the Olympic medal, Frodo was not winning every ITU race. Same with Ralaert. Brent McMahon is a much better IM racer than he was at ITU

Someone said it earlier that Macca does not win Kona 2010 without Tissink (and I could add Marino and Faris to that) by attacking Crowie and creating a large gap. Definitely a solid ITU style move. Macca definitely used this group to go fast and conserve resources and none of these guy felt that Macca had the legs anymore to run fast, so he was an ally.

I think we have enough examples that go both ways, but largely similar dynamics to an ITU race but with more margin for exceptions.

One thing to remember with power data is to be aware of possible sources of error. I.e., who has a PM that reads a little high or low (and why). It's also helpful if you can use Strava's "zone breakdown" feature, which Ben has, but which Cameron does not.

I'd say that it at least appears that Cameron's PM maybe is biased a bit high. Though you're never sure - especially with pro cyclists who often have other people making equipment decisions for them that may be sub-optimal - exactly how smooth someone's set up is. I wouldn't expect a big difference between Wurf and Hoff, but who knows. For example, Wurf was running Kenda TT tires, which are not generally known to be particularly fast tires (though who knows what tires "Kenda TT" tires really are). Also appear to be tubulars. Who knows who did the glue job and how good it was. So you could easily see some losses there. With Ben, it's a bit more clear cut because I have a pretty good idea of the numbers on his equipment, because I've used a lot of the same stuff, and also have compared my own numbers to Ben when we've raced.

Regardless of the benefit of the moto or not - and it is definitely NOT urban legend, but it's also not clear how much more beneficial it is than riding in a group, Wurf's overall pacing strategy was problematic - and also shows the challenge of trying to break away on a fast, flat course with low wind. Ben's 90k/90k power splits were 270/250. Wurf's 90/90 splits were 335/280.

The caloric cost, especially, of that first 90k was huge. This was why Chris Lieto - and others - typically broke away in the second half - not the first half - of an Ironman. In most races, you can gain as much time in the last 10 miles as in the first 100.

Beyond that, I would say it's definitely not clear what Wurf's actual aims when racing were/are. On a good day, I think he's a 3hr runner. So was he racing SA to win? Or simply to have the fastest ride? Or simply to be out front on the coverage for as long as possible? A guy like Wurf, it's harder to make sense of what his aims were, since he's just never shown the capacity as a runner in Ironman. So in that sense, he likely doesn't really affect the race - except perhaps by taking the moto, since no one really worries about him getting too far up the road.

Anyway, for the purposes of this thread, Wurf's data are certainly compelling.

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"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

Good point on possible inaccuracy between powermeters. I also thought 305/315 seemed quite high for an IM-bike leg, but Cameron is certainly a bike-stud. I also found his power to seem abit high compared to the bike split. Now - i dont know squat about neither the course of the conditions that day, som I'm far out speculating here. My point of comparison was I remembered Lionel S stated he put out 315/317 AP/NP in IMAZ last year, where he rode 4:04. I take it the courses are not quite comparable, but factoring in that I'd eyeball Cameron as abit more slippery than Lionel, the difference between a 4:04 and 4:20 on pretty comparable watts seemed large. Pehaps there was abit of crosswinds or something in South Africa? That could possible also explain the lack of moto-draft-effect for Cameron:)

Also good points on pacing of the bike leg. I think the best (recent) example of gaining time in the last part, as opposed to the start, of the bike is Daniella Ryf. She seems to have this perfected. Both at this weekend and Kona last year she seems to have just tugged in for the first 100-120k, and then hit the hammer the last third!