Looks like a bigger prize purse than most 70.3s, at least this early

http://www.ironman.com/triathlon/organizations/pro-membership/event-registration.aspx#axzz4cXLU2haL

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

It may very well come down to those two guys in the last minutes, but I don't understand how everyone Is just counting Potts out? He has won the race a handful of times against the best in the world, some in sprint finishes. He has(or at least had) the ability to start the run with anyone and still be in contention in the last mile. I do understand his age is going to start to work against him, but he loves this course, like Jesse Thomas at Wildflower. Didn't matter who you threw at Jesse at that time of year at that race, he was invincable. I look at Andy in the same way here in Oceanside.

But of course beating the best long course athlete In the world is never easy, something has to be off. But for the rest of that field, he has an even money shot at the very least of taking 2nd if it is a serious race for Frodo. And there is some serious swim talent there, so the lead group is going to be really fast, not the usual just sub 23 that Potts usually has to swim alone.

I like; Frondeno( if serious); Potts, then Lionel....

I'll tell you two reasons I don't like Potts chances...

#1) Earlier this year I saw him doing a camp in Tucson. He is clearly thinking post-triathlon at this point and I can guarantee that affects his training.

#2) He just lost at Puerto Rico.

Potts doesn't finish in the top 3 at Oceanside. Calling it now. The following guys all have serious chances of beating Potts

#1 Frodeno
#2 Sanders
#3 Drietz
#4 Mcmahon
#5 Wuertele
#6 Kastelein
#7 Lieferman
#8 Reid

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He actually trained quite a bit himself during that camp. 6k swims prior to the camper's swims...



You really think #s 5-7 have a chance at beating Potts? All good athletes...but still. Reid obviously beat him at PR, but not by a lot.

I do. Nick, Frodo's training partner, could bring anything - I think he was 10 at World 70.3 last year. Lieferman may not be race fit but he is a strength athlete that can run very well. Trevor has always been able to run as well. It just comes down the dynamics on the bike. Lieferman and Trevor probably won't be front pack but can bridge and especially so if with Drietz.

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Ahh, yea I knew that last name was familiar but couldn't place it (Kastelein).

For reference, 2016 Oceanside

1) LS - 26:33+ 2:07:47 + 1:11.42 = 3:51:17
2) Dreitz - 23:47 + 2:07:51 + 1:15:08 = 3:51:56
4) Potts - 23:32 + 2:11:00 + 1:15:19 = 3:54:44
7) Trevor - 24:55 + 2:10:28 + 1:16:41 = 3:57:01
9) Kastelein - 23:37 + 2:14:28 + 1:15:19 = 3:58:52

That bike + run split of LS is really bonkers. I don't think Frodo would've put much time into Dreitz by T2 (if any), but LS would've had a hard time catching Jan (hypothetically) off the bike last year. I figure Frodo would be good for 1:11-1:13 off a 2:32ish swim + bike.