Arch Stanton wrote:
What hasn't been acknowledged is that other countries already have protectionist policies and the U.S. has not reciprocated. Where is the reciprocation for China only allowing thirty-four foreign movies per year to open in Chinese theaters? Where is the reciprocation for our most successful internet companies being shut out of China? Where is the reciprocation for foreign companies being forced to partner with Chinese companies to do business in China? If there is going to be free trade then it has to cut both ways, otherwise we are China's bitch.
I agree with this. I live in Taiwan and have seem much of this in personal experience in business. The problem for many crucial US exports to China is that they are agricultural products, cultural products and internet businesses. So on the pretext of consumer safety, Asian markets reduce access for US beef due to BSE. Limit pork imports because of US use of ractopamine. Firewall FB etc due to censorship issues. And behind these walls China builds WeChat (which totally destroys What'sApp in every aspect of functionality), taibao, etc etc. But the argument from them (incorrect) will always be these are domestic issues.
As for the bike industry under Trump...I agree it's technology not trade that is killing jobs. Bringing highly automated factories to the US (I'm not sure why everyone keeps saying 'back to the US' as the big players in manufacturing today are not and have never been American.) will not magically bring back the jobs that the president has promised. On the flip side, however, it could be a real boon to innovation and customization for bikes manufactured close to their customers. Change is never all good or all bad...it will be interesting to see what evolves out of this. If Trump can use this to rebalance trade, then I think it's good for all sides. The environmental destruction in many parts of China caused by the manufacture of cheap goods destined for the US market is appalling.
I'm in the camp that argues the US has a lot to lose in a trade war with China. Americans should consider how other countries will crush US exports just as America crushes theirs. Boeing has been mentioned and is a prime example of how this will cost a lot of well paid, highly skilled jobs that at best will be replaced by low wage, low skill jobs, but more than likely, simply replaced with automation. Sounds like a winning plan to me.