I can't give a benchmark really but if you are running a 1:30 half for a 70.3 you should be able to go sub 3 hours for the full assuming no injuries and good mileage. I know some people swear by Yasso 800s where you run your goal time, say 3 hours, in minutes then rest for the same time. Build up to 10 of those and it seems to be a good indicator. But the true bread and butter is the longer runs I think. I do negative split long runs, assuming correct mileage is there, and after 8-10 miles start descending the pace. But in reality if you have a coach and you make that a goal you should be fine. The marathon is a beast though. If anything go run an open half sometime and see what that time is then plug it into McMillan and see what that predicts. But I think with your HIM time you should be good.

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Not sure of your qualifying time so just using BQ pace. Since it's your first marathon, I'm guessing you'd need a 3:05.

Surprised you didn't find Yasso 800s. 10 x 800m @ BQ time (400 rest). Supposed to be some sort of predictor, but obviously assumes that you've also done the endurance work.

The marathon is a long race, so I'm not sure that short ints are very accurate predictors, but I would think that if you could do 10x400, all in about 75, you should be able to run right around 3 hours.

A better indicator might be a half marathon at BQ pace - 20 seconds. Also assuming you've done some long stuff.

I use 24 w/12 @ BQ pace four weeks out, but it might be too late for you to do that?

If you ran 1:30 off the bike, I would say you're a lock if you've put in the volume and done some long runs. That's about all I could manage (hot, flat course) and I'm a 2:4x marathoner.

heh that's a confidence booster, at least! I technically did do a marathon in July--IM Canada, but I did zero training all summer and after doing a decent bike, quite literally walked, cramped and crawled my way to a 5:30 finish. No matter what I do in February it's going to be a PR :)

Yeah I'm shooting for a 3:05. I'm 22. Everything I looked up for BQ predictors brought up training plans. My long runs are up to 17 miles now, but it's all super slow Z1/Z2 for the whole thing. Building up a bigger endurance base since I'm still swimming and cycling a lot. Some speed work will likely start happening in January.

jrielley, mstange--either of y'all do Yasso runs? Gonna look those up right now they sound fun.

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Have you run an open half marathon recently? A basic rule from a half marathon to a full is to double the time and add ten or so minutes. You could also use the McMillan running calculator to input other races, but it assumes you've done the proper mileage for a marathon. I ran a couple of 1:29's in HIM's this year and feel that doing the proper mileage I could break 3:00 - still haven't and it's one of those 'sometime' goals, but I'm not getting any younger at 38.

You definitely want to do longer runs than 17 miles, but you have two or so months until February, so you can definitely get in several more long runs. Try to do 2-3 that have 10-12 miles at marathon pace in the last portion of the run - something like 6 mile warm up, 10-12 at MP, then a 2-3 mile cool down.

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I don't think I've ever done the Yasso test, but I have done 800s (not 10) and usually target somewhere around 2:45-2:50. At some point the Yasso predictor is probably coincidentally accurate, maybe conveniently right around the 3-hour mark?

For marathoning, I think volume and then tempo are the most important elements of training - not so much short intervals. I know you said you're still doing your base swim and bike stuff, but you might want to check out a Pfitzinger plan if you still have a few months before your marathon. Still plenty of time to build endurance, sharpen up and taper for a great race. In addition to the LR, I would try to add a supplemental endurance run (MLR) during the week of 12-15 miles. It's a great way to build volume and toughen up mentally since a two hour mid-week run is a grind. It will pay off late in the race.

As far as predictors for the marathon, I would say it's the totality of you training - have you put in the work? Short ints can give you an idea of your potential, but volume is the real indicator that will give you the confidence to target a certain marathon pace.

I'll second the thought that a 90min HIM leads to a ~3:0X marathon. That is my personal experience, but the last 10k of the marathon feels much harder than the second half of a good day at a HIM. The daniels calculator is pretty good for predicting times if you pop in open 10k results (https://runsmartproject.com/calculator/)

I like this site for comparisons of marathon plans (http://fellrnr.com/...athon_Training_Plans). I prefer marathon training from a tri perspective. Running too much seems to make me flat. I just make sure that the runs have priority in my weekly schedule.

Lastly, Boston is a great race and worth doing. If you can qualify , you should go. (my 2cts)

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I will slightly beg to differ from the above posters.

Assuming a 3:10BQ (you'll need a 3:07x to run Boston probably)

A 1:30 HM can translate to a 3:0x marathon, but if you've never ran a marathon before, or running under 50mpw, I wouldn't be on it unless that 1:30HM came on a significantly tougher course than the marathon. In fact, if you're a marathon rookie and doing only run training <50mpw (not tri-training at that volume), I'd bet you'd have a very hard time even hitting 3:15 on a similar difficulty course.

That said, I'd give you a thumbs up as a pretty good sign that you have the speed and possibly the endurance to BQ or go 3:10 with a 1:30HM. If you had the training volume to match, it's a pretty good benchmark, but in the absence of that volume, you should be wary.

I've run a 1:30HM a week after a 70.3, and I can say for certain (having run 3:15 marathons in years past) that there was NO way I could have run even a 3:20 marathon on that 35mpw triathlon run training. (Ok, maybe on a super-downhill course like St. George I could MAYBE have done it, but forget 3:10 even with downhill back then.)

I'd agree with the above posters that run volume makes the predictors substantially more accurate and contribute the most to your marathon race performance, moreso than short race results in the absence of sufficient training volume.

The comments above were about a 1:30 off the bike in a 70.3 pointing to a 3-hour marathon.

I think you're also in good shape for a 3:05 or faster if you get the volume and quality in. Yasso is an okay predictor if you've run the miles, but a half marathon is better. You have a lot of time before the marathon, so you could look at adding a half 4-6 weeks out if the timing works for you. If you use one of the calculators to go from a shorter race to a marathon, you probably want to add a few minutes since most of us are not doing the kind of volume that the calculators assume. Keep in mind that your BQ time is 3:05:00, but if you want to actually get into Boston you need to be a few minutes faster.

I second the suggestions to get quality in your runs, particularly the long run. I would get the long run up to 20 miles, with half of that at marathon pace or faster. Also look to get in a lot of tempo running (up to 6 miles per run) and some speedwork (200s, 400s, 800s at 5k pace or faster). The endurance base from swimming and cycling will serve you well, but now that you're getting closer you'll want to shift most of the intensity to running and ramp up the run miles.

I also had a 1:30 HIM run this year (cool day, pretty flat course, well-paced bike), and just ran a 2:59 marathon (cool day, very hilly course), in case that benchmark helps. My marathon training was 9 weeks at just over 40 mpw (plus some cycling), with a lot of tempo and marathon-pace running, and a longest run of 20 miles.

There's a lot of variables. I'd say if you can open a 1:25 half (which I'm sure you could going 1:30 off the bike) you should be good assuming you pace the marathon properly. That said it took me getting down to 1:22 half before finally running 3 hours. I find that the Mcmillan calculator was a little optimistic for me, I ran 10 minutes slower than what it was predicting. Racing a marathon is the worst, have fun. I did two 22 mile runs leading up with some tempo in the middle and the last couple miles at race pace that I really think helped when I got to the final 10k of the race.

As someone who recently tried and failed to BQ (BQ time for my AG is 3:15, I missed it by 3 minutes), I'll echo the sentiment that volume is probably the most important factor. The calculators (Daniels, McMillan, etc.) are helpful and it's clear that you have the speed, but none of that likely matters if you haven't put in the volume to allow you to maintain that speed for 3 hours. In my case I was probably a little overconfident since all the calculators indicated I was capable of a sub-3:10 race, but I simply hadn't put in enough volume over a long enough period of time to bear out those results. Several people here gave me that exact feedback but it was too late in my training to compensate for the lack of volume. Good luck though, it's a fun goal to chase and I also agree that if you do BQ you should definitely do it. It's an amazing experience.

The only indicator workout that ever worked for me was a 20-22 mile progressive pace long run with the last hour at sub- to goal marathon pace. If you are looking for a stock marathon training plan, try the Hanson's program.

I'll second this. 21 mile run: 10 easy, 10 at marathon pace, 1 easy. It should an 8.5 out of 10 on the difficulty scale. Marathon pace means marathon HR too and you certainly don't want to "rest up" to make the goal workout.

Totally agree. Even though I have run 1:27'ish half IM's, my IM times are 3:17 and like 3:24. I just do not have the endurance for long stuff, swim, bike or run.
Now, the easy answer is to say but one did not put in enough volume. Possible, but for many, injuries happen from too much.

We also each have different genetics. If you have fast twitch muscles, IMO, no matter how much training, you will never be fast at long stuff.
And if you have slow twitch muscles, you may not have any speed, but can go forever.

I remember a comment by Bill Rogers. He was terrible on the high school track stuff, since it was all short. I guess at the end, he did one longer event, and the rest is history.
His comment is you need to find your distance. Most cannot be fast at short and long stuff.

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