Nothing it was baked in

Europe is in a total state of flux. A totally dysfunctional family. The problem with the European left is that they are the same old, same old and still denying problems such as the flood of Muslim immigrants, etc so people are turning against them. The left held on to Austria in the latest election but France will likely make a right turn. I suspect that the left in Netherlands, Belgium and Sweden will squeak through but they will not be able to ignore the populist movements. The wild card is Germany. Merkel has decided to run for a fourth term. IMHO the Germans should get rid of her ASAP, but again I wouldn't be surprised if she hangs on by her finger nails. Trump and the Brexit will give some buzz momentum to the right, but I suspect that the political map will be as I describe, but the people will be a lot more divided. The peaceful, orderly but a bit smug leftist Europe that I used know during the different times in my life when I lived there has changed. I'm glad I saw it when I did because I have no plans on re-visiting any time soon.

BTW, I suspect Europe would be even worse if the right took over despite the fact many of those on the Euro left are a bunch of idiots.

I see France and the Netherlands going right hard and I see Germany doing the same unless Merkel reverses course hard. I think Europe would be in a lot better shape if the EU was a trade pact and jettisoned all of the extra BS.

" I think Europe would be in a lot better shape if the EU was a trade pact and jettisoned all of the extra BS. "

This must be a first. We actually agree on something. :-)

We agree on lots of things, just not your tacit approval and monetary support of an oppressive regime in Cuba.

The EU should have limited its self to the original free trade area. Not the "ever closer integration"

France is going right but even were MLP to win, and I do not think she will, there is a huge difference between winning and removing france from the euro or EU

Structural reform or working hours, benefits and retirement will be enough to have french farmers out on strike after the elections

Italy is more interesting. Less for the banks which is obviously priced in but for the potential of a 5 star government. They would be a problem because no one really knows what they are

Holland going right under welders. Merkel wins as a safe pair of hands is my gueas

Unlikely to mean anything dramatic in the short to medium term. A more right-leaning government and Eurosceptic government will likely take power in Italy but doubtful they would have a mandate to take Italy out of EU, and from what I understand Italy's constitution means that membership of the EU can't actually be decided in a referendum (might have that wrong). The referendum ended up not really being about Europe, it was more an expression of dissatisfaction with Renzi (the PM) and his government.

The EU is coming under pressure from multiple sides, but the issues are all different. Brexit was largely about immigration, with a heavy dose of anti-establishment thrown in for good measure - any time you line up all the main political parties on the same side of a referendum you're giving some people an irresistible opportunity to kick them. Italians issue is with the economy, they don't have a big problem with immigration, certainly not with European immigration (non-EU immigration is more of an issue). Parts of Europe see the EU as too corporatist - rejection of the trade deal with Canada last month by parts of Belgium was largely on this basis. In other words, there's a lot of anti-EU feeling but it's very fragmented.

For me, the killer blow to the EU is still likely to be a financial crisis, not a vote. Brexit has shown that even when the people have voted on a clear yes/no question, the actual exit process is a big messy legal and negotiation process that will drag on for years and is likely to be subject to multiple challenges and opportunities for people to change their minds - possibly a second referendum or a general election before we leave. The Eurozone is much harder to fudge. It's fundamentally flawed, you can't have a single currency without also having economic union. Sooner or later a crisis is going to come along which is expose those flaws once and for all. Possibly an Italian banking crisis.

I'm not seeing it the end of the world from Italy voting no on whatever (articles seem vague). Also, I thought that Italy benefited more from Euro inclusion than didn't. Isn't their debt a ticking time bomb as well? You mentioned that a little bit in the their banking crisis. They have a lot more to lose than gain by leaving. Unless the issue is social in nature. Having few problems with economic relationships, but having a big problem with central mandates from Brussels.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

A lot of people would say the euro has been very bad for the Italian economy, as it has been for other southern European countries like Spain and Greece. Being tied into a strong currency with low interest rates (effectively underpinned by the strength of the German and other northern European economies) encouraged them to borrow and spend too much when times were good. Now that they're in a hole, the options to dig themselves out are blocked by their membership of the euro. They can't devalue to make themselves more competitive. They can't try to spend (or invest if you prefer...) their way out of trouble since the euro rules are forcing austerity on them. The economy is stagnant, the banks are over-leveraged, youth unemployment is high and a lot of talent is leaving the country, and there's no real end in sight. If or when interest rates go up they're screwed.

It looks like Merkel is going to turn right in an attempt to keep her job

https://www.washingtonpost.com/...m_term=.d57b1431cbf6

I think what you mean is the euro and access to debt are like a drug and the eu was a long enabler. But now that the drug has become terminal, the enabler is now putting their foot down and the addict is mad. But at the end of the day they had a fun ride for years and don't want to pay the piper.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

Read it this morning. First Merkel creates a huge problem which she later admitted as a mistake but then said she would have done all over again, and now she claims she is the best qualified to remedy the problem she created. I hope the Germans get rid of her. Germany has to get over its "war guilt" complex and start doing whats best for them.

when I owe the bank 1m euro's I have a problem, when I owe them 300 bn they have a problem

the best thing italy can do for itself is to leave the euro - its inevitable, the greeks should have done it and will almost certainly eventually do it, but it is completely unsustainable for the bundesbank to continue to bail out southern european economies

italy leaves - goes back to the lira which is devalued against the euro - they become more competitive and they are already the 3rd largest or fourth largest economy in europe

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/06/italys-rebel-economist-hones-plan-ditch-euro-restore-medici/


I think Italy will leave and then the wheels really do start to come off the european project - the UK may eventually end up looking clever having gone out first - we will see