http://forum.slowtwitch.com/...and%20house#p6057278

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Women, have to like someone like Flora Duffy, maybe even Holly Lawrence. Men I think you have to pick the likes of Mola or Murray. I would like to pick some of the longer course guys, but given the timing with Kona it is just too big of an ask for more speed focused efforts.

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I agree with you on that thought, generally, but someone like Ben Hoffman just did a pretty epic double. To place as well as he did at XTERRA just 2 weeks after Kona against some exceptionally fast shorter course guys is pretty freakin' impressive. Clearly, he's got a higher rev limiter than most "long course" pros.

We will be doing Live Results on Sportstats like last year!

From my experience, The Hoff does pretty much more training than any other professional. I would venture to guess that he did 30-50% more total training this year then Sebi. No doubt, that has helped build a huge aerobic engine for Ironman, but I think he will disappoint at the Island House because you need a different sort of fuel for that race, and as you said, he just came off both a Kona performance and Xterra. No idea on Sebi's MTB / trail running experience, so can't really make any sort of judgment on his fatigue level post IM, but the Hoff has a pretty good track record doing Xterra - I think he could have done better and bet he was tired from Kona. With the additional travel I am sure he will be even more tired. Decent flight from Maui to Bahamas. In addition, I see the Hoff's swim ability as being aided by the group, whereas if we look at Lionel, although still back, he at least is used to that in races.

I really don't like the chances of any of the Ironman guys including Trevor W, Hoff, Sebi, or Lionel. I think Lionel is the biggest wildcard. Frankly I just want to see him run a flat out 5K.

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Is it the aerobic engine that will be limiting or swim and run speed that will be the challenge for the long course guys though?

With all of that long course training, I would think that hitting some of the 5k/10k splits that the ITU guys train specifically for would be hard for the ladies and guys coming off of Kona or even a full long course season. This is where I will be interested to see how Brent can do.

If they can keep the gap down from the swim to bike and possibly build a gap on the bike, I think the long course folks could have a chance with a fast run split.

I think that the long course athletes do have the top end speed if they put in a training block, but this close after the season is that likely?

If nothing else, there certainly is enough money on the line to motivate everybody!

jake

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Get outside!

I think Terenzo, Dye, and McMahon have the best shot of the long course guys. Then Holly and Helle for the long course women. .

Overall though I think it will be Murray, Royle, Malloy and Lagerstorm at the front for the men.

Women will have Duffy, Gwen, Zafares, Norden and maybe a LC woman.

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From following Sebi on Facebook and Instagram, he "goofs off" on his mountain bike in the off season (which seems like it would be pretty miserable in Germany).

More that spending so much time on building the aerobic engine takes away from building back up some of the short-course speed. Sure 5k has huge aerobic part, but I don't see The Hoff doing 24x400 on the track prior to Kona in pursuit of Island House $$$. Just wasn't the focus. The focus for Murray and Mola may have not been Island House either, but they were already doing things to allow them to do fast 5k in pursuit of WTS World Champs.

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Agreed. That is what I was what I was trying to say in the babbling I had in my previous post.

jake

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Get outside!