Maybe at 3% body fat it is? I just remember the quote from an interview. These are ironman triathletes we are taking about, not swimmers or rowers after all.

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"The person on top of the mountain didn't fall there." - unkown

also rule 5

except choo was 97 with 87 humidity.. heat index peaked to 165 in the shade race day... i mean, if that's not kona conditions, idk what is...

Anyone got all the picks right last Kona??

Having watched a few of the Babbitt interviews it seems that none of the other pro men have any idea how to beat Frodo. He can swim/ride/run at the front and up the pace whenever he feels like it. Either you go all in and risk walking or stay with him and end up on the podium if you run well.

The woman's race will be far more exciting, shame Lucy Charles isn't racing as she would have two minutes on Jodie coming out of the water, and force a super fast first 40km on the bike by the chasers. Nonetheless, cooler conditions will help the larger girls as they'll be able to go harder on the bike, especially down from Hawi. Plus they'll be able to run better so Rinni might be more than 15 minutes back starting the run. I suspect Mel will profit and make up a slight deficit from the last 40km on the bike, when Ryf usually opens it up, to take the win. Whatever happens Ryf, Jodie and Rinni are going to hurt themselves.

SteveMc

Men:

1. Jan Frodeno: 8:09
2. Jessee Thomas: 8:12
3. Sebi Kienle: 8:14
4. Lionel Sanders 8:15
5. Andreas Raelert: 8:19

Women:

1. Rinny: 8:58
2: Jackson: 9:05
3. Ryf: 9:08
4. Gajer: 9:11
5. Swallow: 9:12

I don't remember for sure but it's doubtful.

This year will be unique because all the picks seem to be in one thread.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

Men - Frodeno, Potts, McMahon

Women - Ryf, Jackson, Swallow

But, what do I know?

Everyone knows who the hot favorites are. I Won't list them, although I will say that out of the "statistical favorites" I have a lot more faith than most of you about Potts. I will not be surprised if he wins this race tomorrow.

Here are my picks of people who I think will surprise the ST crowd in order of decreasing likelihood of a top-3 finish:

FVL (why is nobody picking him!? This is Macca 2010 all over again)
McMahon
Andi B
Cunnama
Terenzo
McNamee

Hate to list the whole field but I have to mention Tim Don as well because nobody else has.

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@EddyRoche
www.eddyroche.com

Men
1. Frodeno
2. Kienle
3. McMahon
4. Potts
5. Van Lierde

Women
1. Carfrae
2. Haushchildt
3. Ryf
4. Swallow
5. Cheetham

I feel like we might see a 2010 Macca (under the radar) performance from...
McKenzie
FVL
Bozzone

And Badmann is finishing her career at Kona, how far up will she finish?

I'm really curious to see how Thomas does. I think ODonnells chance was last year, but I could very well be wrong. If Potts has a race like he did last year, with those new tires he might be able to pul it off.

Everyone seems ready to go, no major news breaks of crashes, illness, or injury this week. Tomorrow should be awesome, looking for a great finish from the energy lab back home from both sides.

I didn't put Potts in my top 3 but, like you, I wouldn't be surprised if he won.

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Jason
None of the secrets of success will work unless you do.

Meh, the forecast is usually the same every day: 85 and showers. But the showers are usually up in the mountains (or in Hawi like we had last year).

Turned out to be 90 on race day last year. Right now the iphone says 88 tomorrow.

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Proud Member of Chris McDonald's 2018 Big Sexy Race Team "That which doesn't kill me, will only make me stronger"
Blog-Twitter-Instagram-Race Reports - 2018 Races: IM Florida 70.3, IM Raleigh 70.3, IM 70.3 World Championships - South Africa, IM North Carolina 70.3

Frodo
Keinle
Potts

Ryf
Rinny
Haushchildt

Seems like a dark horse almost always sneaks onto the podium at the last minute of this race.




TOP 6 Pro Men - Finish
1 8:06:30 Jan Frodeno
2 8:10:02 3:33 Sebastian Kienle
3 8:11:14 4:45 Patrick Lange
4 8:13:00 6:31 Ben Hoffman
5 8:13:25 6:56 Andi Boecherer
6 8:16:20 9:51 Tim O'Donnell


TOP 6 Pro Women - Finish
1 8:46:46 Daniela Ryf
2 9:10:30 23:44 Mirinda Carfrae
3 9:11:32 24:47 Heather Jackson
4 9:14:26 27:40 Anja Beranek
5 9:15:40 28:54 Kaisa Lehtonen
6 9:19:05 32:19 Michelle Vesterby

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

I should have taken my Frodo/Ryf prediction to Vegas. Would have made like $5 if I put $1000 down. Easiest parlay ever.

They each seemed mortal one (1) day in 2016.

Would love to know more about what happened to Potts. Crashed heading into T2? Is it too soon to make "too much time on the trainer" jokes? Speaking of the indoor Canadian Wonder. Where are all the Sanders apologists?

I was really rooting for Thomas, but it seems like he lost contact coming back from Hawi. I blame Lionel for this too - fully expected Sanders to drag a train to the front before the turnaround.

Really curious to see what the athletes have to say in terms of how the race played out, as apparently covering anything other than the lead rider is way too much to ask. Maybe there should be 2 viewing options: Free to watch Ryf lead for 8 hours, or $5 to see what the F is actually playing out behind her.

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/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

kjmcawesome wrote:

Would love to know more about what happened to Potts. Crashed heading into T2? Is it too soon to make "too much time on the trainer" jokes? Speaking of the indoor Canadian Wonder. Where are all the Sanders apologists?

Potts did crash and I assume it was in the chute leading into t2 but I haven't seen the footage. I'm sure that took a lot out of of his run legs. Looking at the live blog, he was at the back of the lead überbike pack at +0:31 at mile 87 and fell off the group and by mile 99 was +2:55. One could argue that the race starting taking its toll right about there.

I'll eat crow for not picking Rinny on the podium. She was down something like 22 minutes out of t2 and ran her way into second. I didn't think that this year the women would give up so much time on the run like that. Props to her for running onto the podium and props to Ryf for the course record.

Amazing debut performance by Patrick Lange who got a penalty yet cranked out the fastest marathon in Kona history at 2:39:45 and ran through over 10 pros to claw his way onto the podium.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

5/6 on theach podium but not in the right order

5/6 on theach podium but not in the right order

At the horse race track you lose all your money, me I won both mens and Womens exactas. Although I lost my trifectas..)-;

Jesse's race report.

I picked Kienle and Heather Jackson. Both got on the podium. Close but that doesn't count.