Dude I'm not being pissy, I am being very civil relative to a desk or pit. You aren't giving up a few percent, you are mathematically guaranteed to lose money in the long term unless you have caught a one way freight train trend. You literally would need to buy on the open and sell on the close every day to get the exposure you want (or never have it go against you). There are so many other ways to get downside exposure: a short ETF, sell futures, short the SPY, ratio put spreads, vix futures (not the VXX). These at least have risks that are easier to understand.

I don't know what his investment thesis is for it. PE is 60. Nothing to unlock. I think it's going to be an albatross

 this link discusses a few unknown billionaires
and their wall street traded companies that they used in order to make alot of money.
F.F. to 35 second point to skip intro
https://www.youtube.com/...rel=0&autoplay=1

It's easier to demoonstrate on the downside. So with a stick if you're down 5% the first day you're 100 is worth 95. Back up 5% the next day you're back to 99.75. Versus the leveraged same scenario down 85 back to 97.75. There's also a management fee associated with an etf vs a stock.

---

"I think I've cracked the code. double letters are cheaters except for perfect squares (a, d, i, p and y). So Leddy isn't a cheater... "

The problem isn't when it's a couple days. It's when you take into account compounding that it gets ugly.

If you look over the last year the market has been up 10.91 percent, but if you look at SPXS it's down 40.29 percent. And that is with some huge volatility in the market a few times.

Monty could be right and if there is a huge drop for some reason he could get back to even. But if the market goes sideways to up for the next 3-6 months it's ugly.

If you look at the last three months including the 5 percent tanking. The s&p is up only 3.13 percent. SPXS is down 12.37 percent... In three months!

Let's say Monty is cost averaged at 12.40. SPXS is at 12.11, even if we had another 5 percent drop today and he timed it perfect and said he was going to get out he would only have a gain of 12.31 percent. Almost the same gain that it only took 3 months to for SPXS to wipe out.

I don't normally suggest a hope and pray strategy for investing, but that's what holding leveraged ETFs are. If there isn't a big fast drop in the next 6 weeks Monty will be most likely in an over 10 percent loss hole where the numbers get really ugly to get out of because the sideways market movement will start eating away at the value.

Like I said it's possible to make money holding it for a while if you're going the same way the market it and it's moving quick. But trying to bet against the direction of the market with a leveraged ETF is a hell of a lot of risk with little upside.

Edit: Also the even bigger issue, which is what I saw when I worked at Scottrade, and is the same in Montys case, when you don't understand the math behind it you don't realize how big of a hole you're actually getting into.

Thanks guys, I will hope to exit soon and use a Spdr even money short, any recommendations? Funny thing is that I did not go in thinking I would make a bunch of money on this, but it was a hedge against my long positions just in case, I just didn't want to get wiped out in a day or two where I was not watching what was going on. Then it turned into more than that one I started exiting my long positions at highs.

Guess the other time I used this strategy it worked out pretty well (brexit) and it blinded me, I will pay more attention from now on.

Okay you can now close out your position at $1.61, making a quick 13% in two days. I just paid for a nice Zipp rear wheel for your bike with your $10,000 investment.

I don't know what his investment thesis is for it. PE is 60. Nothing to unlock. I think it's going to be an albatross

No kidding. And his most recent newsworthy bets(Valant and Herbalife) have lost huge for his fund, and has been a real downer for the investors. Hedge funds are getting slammed, and now there is a light on the way they charge customers. One thing to make someone a lot of money, they overlook those fees, but lose them a lot of money and charge them the fees, well that won't happen for very long..


Time will tell if they catch up with their multiple, but very scary to hinge so much on a company where one of your cilantro choppers might not wash his hands after taking a dump and you lose millions because of it..

By the way, sold 1/3 of my short position with the S&P down 7 this morning, fingers crossed for some more drop..

Could you explain why it may not be the best decision to invest in VXX, even if you think the market will take a downturn? I'm having trouble understanding what VIX futures is?

This thread is great!

I think this is a different play for him. Valeant and Herbalife seemed more strategic and fungible. Herbalife was a fake company according to him. Chipotle is consumer so he might think with new management/marketing and looking at it from a societal standpoint and industry trends there is an upside. In other words, just business 101 stuff.

http://sixfigureinvesting.com/...4/how-does-vxx-work/

This is a really good article, read the section on what does it track.

http://cfe.cboe.com/...ts/products_vix.aspx

overlay a chart percent changes (or do a correlation of returns) of VXX to VIX. It just doesn't track it as closely as one would expect.

Ok got a good exit point today with the S&P down over 1%. So didn't get hurt too bad on my trade, but did lose some. So what vehicle do I use to short the 500 that tracks it as close as possible without all the big i lost in the leveraged ETF?

It is killing me that I'm out of short completely, if this is just the beginning of what I believed would happen and I now miss it, well keep the neck ties away from me..(-;

Dang I closed it out for a 13% gain in two days and today it's trading 80% higher now at $2.60. Guess I'm not savvy. Let your winners run.

I listed it out in a previous post

http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.php
....

The Biffex? Point is.....

SO sold everything this morning while the S&P was up about 12 points. Got out of those stupid long positions of SPXS couple weeks ago on that great down day, but not at the end of the day unfortunately so got lucky there. SInce then been using that ETF like it is supposed to be, short term trades, thanks windy. I'm just a little panicky on the markets at the moment, and need some of my cash in a couple months for a house purchase, so seemed a good time to sit and watch.

Don't think the fed will raise this month, but if they do look out short term. Actually right now I hope they do, will give me a good entry point back in. If not, well that entry will come somewhere, it always does. Just glad that most my money is in retirement accounts, so no taxes to speak of to pay by liquidating right now. And I'm open to any new stock ideas any of you might have, give me your winners!!!

Let me know when you decide to get back in. I've got some money to invest, and I'm too chicken to just throw it into the market right now. It's sad since I know I can't predict the future, but once a gambler always a gambler I guess.

Will do, just sitting and waiting for bad news. Feels strange to be rooting for the bad guys, but they so seldom win and may as well make some money when they finally do!!

Come on Yellen, do what everyone knows you want to, but have been to timid to do! OR we could just settle for a little flash crash, back in with no real pain!!

 
this bubble burst show
talks about stock market wins and losses
fast forward to 13 minutes and 40 seconds point
to skip the commercials and filler .

http://zfirelight.blogspot.com/...of-2017-bigfoot.html

Big balls up in here.

Dude, your In a perfect position to be selling covered calls. If you don't know how, learn. Make money while your holding that stock with big gains. Besides, that sucker has a wicked PE, not sure how long the growth will last. Maybe get ready to bail after the nice 17 month gain. It doesn't stay wonderful forever. If it dips, you can always jump back in.

Following this quote today.... Read your first post about 13% and my first thought was.... I usually wait til a 30% gain on option trades and/or volatility market trades. The times I get greedy, I seem to lose out. 30% seems like an attainable number I have seen in the past.

I'm still pissed my AMD trade never filled and now the damn stock ran up big time.

Buy XOM stock. Safe play with some upside and dividends.

Buy calls on TSLA. Good growth is the alleged $35k car is a hot seller.

Buy CMG stock. It's back to 2014 pricing. Good upside.