windywave wrote:
spot wrote:
This is not that untypical for advanced technology being deployed for the first time. For example, the Ford is using an electromagnetic launch system vice the normal steam catapults for launching aircraft; I'm not sure what the difference in the arresting gear is. The problem with this and much of our acquisition system (like the F-35) is that we cram a bunch of untested and exotic technology into the requirements for a major weapon system, which makes it really, really hard to accurately estimate cost and schedule. And, when inventions don't happen on time, as is often the case with cutting edge technology, schedule (and thus cost) slips to the right.
A) You'd think before pissing away 13B dollars they'd test the stuff, maybe do a proof of concept.
B) Curious about the redesign comment, don't they have virtual CAD etc. to simulate things before pissing 13B?
C) Apollo seemed to turn out okay as did the Manhattan Project (hyperbolic, but both infinitely more complex and both worked).
First, it's not like they are going to have to scrap the ship. And, they have until 2021 before the Ford enters active service...plenty of time to fix the issues that are being reported, and I'm pretty confident they will. So, it's not anywhere near "pissing away 13B dollars." They'll spend more money than planned fixing and testing the stuff that isn't working quite right, but they aren't going to lose a $13B ship.
Second, CAD stuff is great for making sure things fit, not so much at determining reliability, which is the issue.
Lastly, Apollo did have issues...perhaps you remember the Apollo 1 spacecraft fire? And, they did a long, careful buildup to test out new technologies (the entire Gemini program was designed to test out space rendezvous, space walks, longer space flight, etc). The first 10 Apollo launches tested out systems in a methodical way. That sort of careful buildup tends to drag schedule out to the right, and thus cost, and so is difficult to do in a military acquisition environment. The Manhattan Project succeeded because of the enormous resources thrown at it...it cost $26B in today's dollars and employed 130,000 people.
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