I am all in for Kona 2017 with or without Gomez

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Don't forget that at both Arizona (3-loop course) and Roth (2-loop-course) the pros do have certain benefit on the 2nd (and 3rd) from all the slower athletes which they constantly overtake. I did a relay in Roth 8x now and you can really feel the aero advantage of the slower riders even if they are at 35kph and you are at 45kph.

Just for fun I fired up the Kona model


I think his trainingpeaks was modified for that video. 356W ftp just not realistic.
Aside from that, he should be more aero now as his bike has been optimised more.
So it looks like his in race CdA is in the mid-high 0.25s. In race taking account of sitting up and all the factors that can make a race leader faster...

If I plug in the power I estimated for Roth (then adjust down to 0.79IF to get same TSS) he rides 4.15 at Kona in 2015 conditions. Of course, then we find out what the extra heat stress does to the run..

2:38 is 16 kph or 10 mph. When you run that fast, if you get to run behind someone it is a huge benefit (since you are way less aero than biking....can cyclenutz calculate the CdA for Jan running at 16 kph?). Jan got to run behind no one at Roth. Do you guys know what the rule is on following lead bikers at Roth? If the lead biker is pretty well up the road and Jan can't draft, then the 2:38 must be pretty legit and you chalk it up to cool conditions and a soft crushed gravel trail.

Jurgen Zack used to always run way faster at Roth than Kona and said his running style could not handle the pavement in Kona (by the way, Jurgen went 9:09 at at 51 in Roth last weekend with a 4:39 ride and sub 3:30 run).

This is a classless comment IMHO. Joe has always been a good runner see for example his 2:48 at IMUK two years ago which is a legit course and not quick as there is a significant amount of ascent - https://www.strava.com/activities/175726481

He is a better athlete now than he was then so why not a 2:38 on a faster run course? How would you like it if the tables were turned and someone was saying this about you? Poor form, disappointing.

Skippers run was (is) world class and remarkble. Saying a 2:38 could be an indication of a somewhat short (500-1000m) run takes nothing away from Joe - at least the way I see it. He did what he did - world class run and race best - no matter if it was 42,2 or 41,4 km

Dev, Dev, Dev - by now you should know that the question is not 'can cyclenutnz calculate?' - more often it is 'should cyclenutnz calculate??"
To which my answer is always yes, but often with caveats (because I try to be a good statistician)



This calculator primarily intended for evaluating weight changes and pacing across different distances. But the power calc is based on a CdA estimate and athlete mass. So I've added a draft factor for you.
You can see a 5% drafting benefit is worth 30s over the marathon once we match the power.

Even if you could match the draft benefit of cycling ~30% by being right on the wheel - which is simply not possibly running:

The advantage would only be just over 3mins

A 10% draft benefit only equal to losing 600g. Aero is not everything when running

Interesting reference for you if not seen before........

Pugh, L. G. C. E. (1971). The influence of wind resistance in running and walking and the mechanical efficiency of work against horizontal or vertical forces. The Journal of Physiology, 213(2), 255–276. http://doi.org/...hysiol.1971.sp009381


SUMMARY
1. 02 intakes were determined on subjects running and walking at various constant speeds,(a)against wind of upto 18.5m/sec (37knots) in velocity, and (b) on gradients ranging from 2 to 8 %.
2. In running and walking against wind, 02 intakes increased as the square of wind velocity.
3. In running on gradients the relation of 02 intake and lifting work was linear and independent of speed. In walking on gradients the relation was linear at work rates above 300 kg m/min, but curvilinear at lower work rates.
4. In a 65 kg athlete running at 4.45m/sec (marathon speed) V(dot)o2 increased from 3.0L/min with minimal wind to 5.0L/min at a wind velocity of 18.5m/sec. The corresponding values for a 75 kg subject walking at 1.25m/sec were 0.8L/min with minimal wind and 3.1L/min at a wind velocity of 18.5m/sec.
5. Direct measurements of wind pressure on shapes of similar area to one of the subjects yielded higher values than those predicted from the relation of wind velocity and lifting work at equal 02 intakes. Horizontal work against wind was more efficient than vertical work against gravity.
6. The energy cost of overcoming air resistance in track running may be 7.5% of the total energy cost at middle distance speed and 13% at sprint speed. Running 1m behind another runner virtually eliminated air resistance and reduced V(dot)o2, by 6.5% at middle distance speed.

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David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

ok... we are on frodo and skippers nuts about their performances, but shouldnt have rinny and ryf out done chrissie's record as well? they have more clutter to draft off of..

By middle distance speed are they referring to 800m to 1500m distance, in which case ~4 min per mile or 15 mph speed?

Also you could easily hit middle distance speed during an IM. if you run 12 kph (5 min per k) drafting someone while running into a 15 kph, that gets you 27 kph wind speed, which is basically "middle distance speed"

they used 6m/s for middle distance speed (= 2 min 47sec / km)

and 4,45m/s for marathon speed (= 3min45sec / km)


wind 5 - 18.5m/s (up to 33.3km/hour)

Your Kona model is broken. Drafing: none. Please. Take a look at Rapp's Kona files and tell me why, even with his aerodynamic neurosis, he loses 6-10 minutes on the same watts at the lead pack.

And what's with all the irrelevant variables in your dashboard? Lean mass?

The study should decouple the ground speed of the runners. It is totally irrelevant in figuring out the O2 needs when working against wind. They should do it based on the air the runner is pushing. It's like True Air Speed for aircraft, which is what you need to know when calculating the fuel consumption. That's what we really want to know here. It is kind of implied when you say 18.5 m/s air speed relative to ground plus 4.45m/s ground speed of athletes. So you add it up and it is 22.95m/s True air speed for runner pushing the wind. By the way i am getting 18.5m per second to be much higher....18.5 x 3600 s per hour = 66 kph. 22.95 = 82.6 kph.


I think more realistic true air speed in the case of Jan might be 4.2 m/s ground speed plus 5 m/s air speed, so you get around 9 m/s at most, or 32 kph true air speed. Would certainly apply out on the QueenK in Kona.

https://www.strava.com/activities/643884052

skippers run strava.

based on his pace, should give him 2:40:48. then again strava does cut off .1 mile sometimes.

regardless, still bad ass. 2:40 has been touched before in other IM events, but of course we know those courses are short too. can also factor in running in transition i suppose

The model has multiple levels of drafting, which would you like turned on? Legal, wtc pro (years of doing this have shown that these are two different things) or ttt?

I haven't looked at the way kona played out to know with whom Jan was riding.

I only showed half the variables. Lean mass estimate is there to get stored energy estimate to balance power output against ingested and stored energy. It turns out to do the same thing as working to the tss targets that have been proven in rl. But I see no need to take it out

He may be a good athlete and a great triathlete runner, but the guy is a complete moron for riding the way he does. Physically gifted, mentally challenged.

Interesting, care to elaborate?

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Triathlete specializing in 70.3 Distance and Ironman.

joeskipper.co.uk

Yes. Dude -- your position is HORRIBLE. Take a look at Frodo, and then take a look at this:





http://www.saddleback.co.uk/media/shared/news-img/2016/07%20july/joe-skipper-challenge-roth-rotor-on-boardman-bike-ingo-kutsche.jpg?q=75&p=1024
http://www.slowtwitch.com/articles/images/6/146926-largest_Roth2016Race8.jpg
http://cdn.triathlon.competitor.com/files/2016/07/Roth16-1174.jpg
http://triathlonmagazine.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Roth16-1165.jpg


Who even fit you? You should start a thread asking for advice, or direct message slowman, or post on the x/y thread, or all of the foregoing. You are sitting up in the wind like a grandpa, and you are getting less for your watts that almost any of your male peers. 323 watts and you only go 25 mph. I shudder to have to say this, but: you could learn from Thomas Gerlach.


Let's talk about those watts. How did you determine your FTP...a dartboard? I can guarantee, for a fact, you did not ride Roth at 0.88. And I am shocked that the Trainingpeaks guys even let you suggest that you did. If you want to know more about how to determine your actual FTP, rather than just tossing out some figure that shows how much you "pushed your limits", you can consult any of the profamateurs on this board, Monod, Coggan's TARWAPM, etc.


You are a world class athlete. Don't be a world class dunce.

Actually his base coordinates are pretty good. Meaning the relationship between arms in reach and hip angles, etc. But he need to drop about oh... at least 5, maybe 8cm in front.... pretty much the height of those risers. You then just rotate the position forward. to do it, the seat goes up a little and the stem get just a little shorter.

When I took delivery of my new bike it had the medium rise stem. I estimate I was losing about 15-20 watts being 3cm higher in front. I'd say skipper is losing even more. Unless he has some fused vertebrae is his neck, no reason to be so high up front. You do loose a little visibility up the road. Also getting an aero bottle for the frame and place the 2nd bottle under the seat.... or figure out how to manage with only 1 bottle on concentrated mix.

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TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

I've never had my position professionally set. I've tried to get in a wind tunnel but have struggled to get In there.

I'm happy to accept any help which you have to offer?

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Triathlete specializing in 70.3 Distance and Ironman.

joeskipper.co.uk

#holyshit

I'm an internet troll not a bike fitter. I would strongly suggest you go see Mat Steinmetz, Dan Empfield, or someone of similar caliber. You will be much, much faster afterwards.