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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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You might want to read some of the articles in the New Yorker by Jon Lee Anderson and George Packer. They are both journalists who actively travel the country and aren't sequestered in the Green Zone. They take more man on the street angles, and clearly are well-sourced in the country.

As for whether it's improving, I don't think one can say definitively either way, which in its own way is bad. The fact of the matter is of the money we've allocated to reconstructing everything we've destroyed, only a small percentage has been used because the rest has to be used for security concerns. Likewise, there are reports of significant fraud and mismanagement of resources, so it will be awhile before we find out how much of the cash simply disappeared into paper bags.

I think anecdotally, this is the problem - this is still a city (Baghdad) where you cannot drive from the Green Zone to the airport without heavilly armed guard, because that road is now known as "Death Road" by locals, and is considered the most dangerous thoroughfare in the world. I don't think that can be considered progress at this point.


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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [TB in MT] [ In reply to ]
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I don't trust the MSM to report on Iraq, since, even if you put aside the bias, they are basically clueless for the reasons I have listed.

I trust the military reports to some extent, but these have been filtered through the Pentagon, most of whose officials are as clueless as the reporters for most of the same reasons.

The reports I do trust are from the actual servicemen on the ground, including right here on this forum. Their reports are of individual trees however, rather than the forest.

My bottom line is that I don't think I have anything resembling an accurate big picture. I really wish those either supporting or opposing the conflict who are so certain would step up and tell us why.
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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Its actually going very well to the dismay of many on the left. Put aside the politics and listen to what the military leadership says in their entirety not 30 second clips saying there is only one Iraqi battalion combat ready. As you said the BEST reports are from the muddy boots guys and as been reported here by soldiers like Steve Hawley things are going extreemly well. Also Generals Abizaid and Casey feel things are going well too. Specific point to be made by General Casey is this is going to take a long time. For those who think you support the troops but not the war need to understand this. Commanders on the ground are concerned about the lack of committment from the American people. Why is it if those on the ground doing the work feel its worth the fight can't the American people support their efforts?

Commander Still Eyes Iraq Troop Reduction In this photo provided by ABC News, Gen. George W. Casey, the commanding general of U.S forces in Iraq, appears during an interview on This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Sunday, Oct. LINDA SPILLERS October 02, 2005 1:11 PM EDT

WASHINGTON - Senior military commanders said Sunday that Iraqi security forces are improving significantly as U.S. officials stood by earlier assessments that some U.S. forces could return home early next year.

The generals played down the fact that the number of top-level battalions of Iraqi soldiers - those ready to go to war without U.S. assistance - has fallen from three to one since June.

More important to the mission of training Iraqis is the growing number of Iraqi security forces at all levels, including those able to lead operations with U.S. backing, said Gen. George W. Casey, the commander of multinational forces in Iraq.

"The development of the Iraqi security forces is very much on track," Casey told ABC's "This Week.

He said the goal is to develop Iraqi forces that can operate without U.S. assistance. "You don't build an army to that level overnight ... it's going to be some time for them to get there," Casey said.

Both Casey and Gen. John P. Abizaid, who heads the U.S. Central Command and has overall responsibility for military aspects of the global fight against terrorism, have said U.S. troop levels could decrease in the spring if political and security conditions in Iraq were favorable.

That assessment appeared in question last week when Abizaid and Casey told a Senate committee about the reduction in top-level Iraqi battalions. Some lawmakers expressed concern about the pace and overall success of the training mission.

On Sunday, Abizaid said more Iraqis are in the field at various levels of training and are participating in security operations than before. Field commanders, both U.S. and Iraqi, are confident and remain optimistic that progress is being made, he said.

Iraqi forces already are leading the fight in some areas of the country, Abizaid said, citing parts of downtown Baghdad and southern Iraq as examples. He did not say how long it might take to train enough fully combat-ready Iraqis to replace U.S. troops.

Abizaid also said he was optimistic that the political goals for Iraq would be met. Voting is scheduled for Oct. 15 on a draft constitution, with elections for a new government set for December.

"As long as politics continues to move in the direction that it appears to be moving, and the Iraqi security forces continue to move in the direction that they're moving, the insurgency doesn't have a chance for victory," Abizaid said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

If a legitimate government emerges from elections and represents all of Iraq's political factions, Abizaid said, "there's no reason to suppose that we can't bring force levels down in the spring."

Casey would not set a specific date for a drawdown of U.S. troops, now numbering nearly 150,000. He said a reduction was part of the overall strategy and would be based on conditions in Iraq.

"It will happen progressively around the country as Iraqi security forces step forward," Casey told CNN's "Late Edition."

Abizaid discounted the potential fallout from a rejection of the constitution. He said it was important to see whether minority Sunni Arabs, who oppose the draft constitution, participate in the political process.

"Whether or not the constitution fails in the referendum should not necessarily concern us," he said on CBS' "Face the Nation."

"As long as politics is legitimate in Iraq, with all groups participating, whether it's in the constitutional referendum or the elections for a new government, we'll be just fine," he said.

Casey said commanders are concerned the war could lose the support of the American public. Recent polls indicate that only one-third of Americans approve of President Bush's handling of the war.

"I think it's important for the American people to understand that we should not be afraid of this fight. This is a tough fight," Casey said. "This is worth it, and we have a plan and a strategy in place that will allow us and our Iraqi colleagues to prevail."

Asked if he worries that the U.S. troops who have died in Iraq - a number approaching 2,000 - may have given their lives in vain, Casey said: "No, I don't worry about that. Not yet - we're not there yet."

After the talk shows, Sen. Jack Reed, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said the idea that training Iraqi forces may take years rather than months is not the message the Bush administration wants to get out because it presumes huge costs and a long U.S. involvement.

"The administration is desperate to try to reverse the popular impression that the situation is deteriorating rapidly," Reed, D-R.I., told reporters in a conference call that his office organized.
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [armytriguy] [ In reply to ]
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I saw Abizaid and Casey yesterday on the talking heads shows. They were OK, but I would really rather hear from the Steve Hawleys of the world. They give the straight story as they see it up close.

I take the high reenlistment numbers very seriously also.

You are spot on about concern of the troops for American public opinion. Supporting the troops but not the mission is an oxymoron.
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [armytriguy] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Why is it if those on the ground doing the work feel its worth the fight can't the American people support their efforts?
Because the Armed Forces work for the American people; the American people don't exist to support the Armed Forces. If the American people don't want the Armed Forces to fight this war (rightly or wrongly), then the Armed Forces shouldn't fight the war.

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"Go yell at an M&M"
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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I appreciate your comments on the thread Ken, and they are well taken. But why don't you chime in on the basic question of the thread? Do you have any idea how we are doing, and, if so, why do you think you know?
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
I appreciate your comments on the thread Ken, and they are well taken. But why don't you chime in on the basic question of the thread? Do you have any idea how we are doing, and, if so, why do you think you know?


"What is reality?"

I think things are going very badly in Iraq, based on information that can't be "spun", and here's why. To set the stage, "very badly" is in reference to what was planned for and expected to happen in Iraq. Part of the plan was for Iraqi oil revenue to fund (at least part of) the reconstruction. Clearly, this hasn't happened, from both ends: revenue ain't there, and costs are far higher than expected. Of the money allocated to the reconstruction, far more money has been spent than planned on security and related costs. This money was originally going to pay for infrastructure and all the other things that are needed. This single fact makes the case, in two ways: 1) the fact that the money is so desperately needed for security says something, and 2) it's not being spent where it was supposed to be.

Any claim that things are going well in Iraq must be based on revised expectations. Such a claim therefore admits that the original plan was in error. If anyone can say that things are going well when 100+ Iraqis are killed every week, two years after the fall of Saddam Hussein, there's nothing I can say to counter that.

I'm sure that the military is doing some great things in Iraq. That said, it's a big country, a lot of Iraqi civilians are dying every day, and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight.

Unsupportable opinion: the crap that comes from the Administration (like original estimates of 100,000+ battle-ready Iraqis, Cheney's "last throes" nonsense, etc.) reeks of doublespeak and spin control. My BS-meter is pegged.

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"Go yell at an M&M"
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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Note: Ken is correct. The military works for the American people, not the other way around.

Note: The guy with his boots on the ground is in a position that deserves a great deal of respect. But not one which affords a complete or particularly objective point of view.

As for how we're doing, so far, rather poorly. Why do I think I know? Because two and a half years after invading, we're still occupying the nation, and will be for the forseeable future.








"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [armytriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Don't take this the wrong way, I don't know much about the military, but I would argue most boots on the ground are insulated from the real situation compared to the people who live there, wouldn't you agree? I mean except for special ops (a few thousand guys in real hot zones) don't most of them live in well-protected bases and spend most of their time traveling in well-protected groups? They can't go out alone in civilian clothes and shop in the markets can they?? If so they can't stray to far, right? Even so, its super dangerous and scary, of course, but I doubt any outsiders, especially Westerners who are targets, can really get to know much about a place when its in chaos.

What do the military on the ground really know, compared to the people who have lived in the country forever? I'm interested in what the boots on the ground have to say, but then again they are visitors ... I'm more interested in what the Iraqis have to say, but we don't trust them or their information even though we are trying to save them (wasn't that Art's point about the NY times article?). I've read the militray blogs and plenty of articles by soldiers: Great info. But do we have lots of good articles about the people who actually live in Iraq? ... Iraqis really must fend for themselves, while foreign solders have much more protection and are insulated in their own way (because they are more obvious targets, of course). Or am I wrong?
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [TB in MT] [ In reply to ]
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"Doing well" to me means a political solution that yields a government viewed as legitimate by the majority of Iraqis (including the Sunnis). We're not there yet. We're treading water, some tactical victories, some tactical defeats.

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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [jhc] [ In reply to ]
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"Doing well" to me means a political solution that yields a government viewed as legitimate by the majority of Iraqis (including the Sunnis).

Does "doing well" include a political situation that yields a government friendly to the US, as well?








"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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In my opinion, Iraq isn't going particularly well. The objective facts are that Baghdad is not stable. While there is undoubtedly good stuff happening throughout the country, if Baghdad isn't stabilized, it's all for naught.

Other indications:

The fact that reporters don't feel safe outside the Green Zone. That's telling. Ya, it's possible to travel outside of that area, but not with a great deal of confidence.

The fact that the Green Zone that is still so prominent and necessary(and not all that safe--there was a bombing inside the perimeter not too long ago) is also telling to me.




f/k/a mclamb6
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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That's a very intersting statement.

I agree with the first half (Armed Forces work for the people), but I disagree with the second half. Popular opinion should not drive all policy (foreign and domestic). Just because something is or isn't popular doesn't make it what is best for the country (and I'm referencing no specific issue or situation at this point). Free TVs would be very very popular, but also a very poor idea.

To me, this is why we have elected leaders in the country. They make the determination for us as to what is or is not worth the sacrifice (either in effort, dollars and/or lives). Unfortunately we have too many leaders who try to "lead" via polls, not enough of them are willing to make a hard decision and stick with it (and several that do have the balls to do this in recent years have made choices I disagree with).
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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I have long thought our media is more about ratings than presenting the facts. That being said I'd have to say that 99.9% of the information we receive, either thru media, military or other source is likely compromised in one of many ways.

Now with that being said I don't think anyone here, in fact anyone outside of a handfull of people receiving accurate intelligence, if that's even possible, have any idea of how things are REALLY going in IRAQ.

I think the situation in NO only supports this idea.

~Matt
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [vitus979] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
"Doing well" to me means a political solution that yields a government viewed as legitimate by the majority of Iraqis (including the Sunnis).

Does "doing well" include a political situation that yields a government friendly to the US, as well?
Good question - anything perceived as a US puppet isnt going be seen as legitimate, and will ulimately fail. I'd like to not see a Shiite theocracy, but I'm not under the neocon illusion that we're going to create a pro-Western, pro-Israel democracy.

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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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Unfortunately, no matter which report people are reading right now I don't any of them are totally accurate. The governments reports and printed news are pretty much slanted in opposite directions and right now US news- I should say cable Infotainment news networks- seems kind of bent on ignoring it because its not the latest greatest hot story. I am guessing the truth is somewhere in the middle.
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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The second video contrasts the general's testimony in Congress with what the President and Vice President say in press conferences. For those too stuck in their ways to listen - the generals claim we should expect the insurgency to last the same as any other 20th century insurgency, at least six more years. The only general who thinks things are going well has had his daughter appointed to a post for which she was not qualified for...

http://onegoodmove.org/1gm/1gmarchive/002443.
html#002443
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [jhc] [ In reply to ]
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anything perceived as a US puppet isnt going be seen as legitimate, and will ulimately fail.

Probably.

I'm not under the neocon illusion that we're going to create a pro-Western, pro-Israel democracy.

Me, neither. Which kind of makes you wonder about the point of the whole exercise, no?








"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [vitus979] [ In reply to ]
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Which kind of makes you wonder about the point of the whole exercise, no?

Not really. Taking out Saddam to ensure dismantlement (and future restarting) of his WMD programs was pretty important.

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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [jhc] [ In reply to ]
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Taking out Saddam to ensure dismantlement (and future restarting) of his WMD programs was pretty important.

Ugh. It was pretty important, huh? Because he was ready to strike at a moment's notice. Because he wasn't a textbook example of how containment can work superbly. Because we'll be even more able to contain whatever government, which you agree is not likely to be friendly to us, even better than we did Saddam.

Saddam was a bad guy. He was a bad guy that we had locked up in a nice little box. The bad guys who stand to take over in Iraq after (if) we pull out probably won't be so easily neutralized.








"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [vitus979] [ In reply to ]
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Where did the idea that Iraq should become pro-Israel come from? I never heard that one until I read this thread.

Talk about setting up straw men or unrealistic goals.
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Re: Anyone have any idea how we are really doing in Iraq? [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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Where did the idea that Iraq should become pro-Israel come from?

Chalabi. Yes, it's unrealistic, and a bit of a strawman I admit.

Newsweek emphasized, adding that in private conversations Chalabi assured his neo-conservative friends that a post-Saddam Iraq "would be an Arab country friendly to Israel."


http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief3-25.htm

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