When a storm like this approaches, the barrier islands and trailer parks in South Florida have a mandatory evacuation. Most people obey, but, like New Orleans, not all.

I live about 10 miles inland. I wouldn't evacuate. I do live in a concrete block house, not some pile of sticks. If I lived in a pile of sticks, I would take off. I would be stocked up with food and water for a few days.

Had I lived in New Orleans, I would have been out of Dodge in no time. You have to be nuts to stay in that city in the face of that storm.

Don't worry, I grab my family and pack up the camper and hual out of here.

So, if I read you right if a cat 5 was to land near you, you would stay?

The real question is however, what does the computer models say about your area?

Yes, I would stay. The alternatives are very undesireable. There aren't many directions to flee in Florida. You could wind up fleeing right into the path of the storm, as happened to lots of people last year when one of the hurricanes tracked north and nailed those who sought refuge in Orlando.

The storm wouldn't be Cat 5 by the time it got to my house. Even a cat 4 might cause major structural damage to my house though, since it was engineered before the latest building codes. We could easily have flooding as well, but it would drain off in a couple of days. I am about 13 feet above sea level here.

If you are not in the way of the storm surge, and you are in a building built since hurricane Andrew, you are in pretty good shape in South Florida. Of course, that omits a lot of people.

I just finished building some apartments. Those buildings would laugh at a category 4 storm. Maybe I should flee there.

Excellent question.

I live in a city that about 100 miles inland so I'm not in an area that is prone to the direct effects of a Category 5 hurricane...or 4, 3, 3, 1 or tropical depression.

However, should a Category 5 hurricane hit my coastal area it is highly likely that my area would see winds and rain equivalent to a Cat 3.

First off, my city isn't below sea level. My house sits at an elevation of 250ft and on a hill that isn't prone to flooding or sit in a flood plain. In addition, local building codes prohibit any type of construction in flood plains.

I do live in a city next to a major river. My house is about 3 miles from the river but it isn't prone to flooding due to terrain.

About 15-20 years ago the major part of the city near the river was prone to flooding. Every time a major storm or hurricane passed through...especially to the west in our mountains the area would flood and businesses would be wary of building down there. So the city spent millions of dollars and installed a floodwall which sparked redevelopment and the downtown are thrived because they thought this wall would hold...more on the double edged sword this wall has later.

That being said I'll give you a couple of examples of two incidents in the past 2 years which showed that my area was prepared...and one where the unthinkable happened.

Hurricane Isabel hit the VA/NC line and rolled right over our city two years ago. By the time it reached us it was still a Cat. 1 hurricane. A week before the storm hit the coast we were put on alert and everyone started to warn us to prepare. The city/county started readying shelters for those who needed it, posted checklists, special coverage, etc. Personally I stored up water, batteries and ice. We knew power was going to go out so we prepared accordingly. I also had portable stoves and non perishable food stocked. The storm hit and power was out for at my house for 2 weeks. Water went out for 3 days and wasn't potable for a week. I survived...was out of work for 3 days due to power outages and trees down on roads. Got my chain saw out and helped clear my yard, neighbors, and parents. Parents had a whole house generator that runs off of propane gas so they were set and not affected. The city was back to normal and the city wasn't flooded due to the flood walls working. All in all the city/county was back to normal in a week but we didn't have major flooding...just minor and it drained properly.

A year ago Tropical depression Gaston hit us by surprise. In a period of 6 hrs 11 inches of rain fell on the city. The city closed the flood gates. The river didn't flood BUT the flood gates were responsible for flooding in the city. What happened was the drainage system was overwhelmed by that much water in such a short period of time. So the downtown area's storm system started being overwhelmed. Our storm and sewage system is antiquated due to the age of the city. When you have that much water it starts backing up...and it starts backing up into peoples houses as well since it's a combined system. So many houses got flood by water backing up in their basements and toliets if they didn't have a backflow preventer installed on their sanitary lines. Not with just rainwater but sewage water. In addition, the river didn't flood (it was low to begin with) but they closed the flood wall just in case. Closing the floodwall actually acted as a wall to hold water in the city preventing it from draining into the river. So in this case it helped flood the downtown instead of protecting it from flooding. The root cause of all of this was an antiquated drainage system that needs major repair.

So in one case we were prepared...in another we weren't. In both cases I was prepared b/c I don't really trust the local and state govt's ability to handle all of this.

In addition, while we can do our best to prepare for any type of storm we can't prepare for everything.

So an additional question to be asked would be...not only are you prepared...but...can you survive? Do you have basic survival skills and the "smarts" to improvise and react?

Brian,

I will pick on you, simply because we love to do that here ;-)

I want to belabor the question. What does the computer model show for a cat 5 hitting your area? Do you know? Has your area ever run a model? Come on now surely your area has not totally ingored the possibility of a hurricane of this magnitude hitting that area? Ok then, at what level did they run the models?

After Isadore, at what level did they model your protection at? What is their evacuation plan for you? Surely you must know this, right?

My point is this. This area has indeed run the models and ran them in such a way that it was clearly known the "perfect storm". It has been widely publiced what the impact could be.

It is speculation on my part, but I truly suspect that your area does not have a similar computer model. Why, because - we are safe here, we cannot flood here, it will never happen here, (insert every phrase you heard from the evacuees).

This area is vunerable and is known - fact. What is the level of concern for this magnitude of storm hitting your area from your government officials? State? County? City Towns? Local Emergency Preparedness Office?

This exemplifies why so many people stay during hurricanes. My house is safe......

Art, please do us a favor and do not stay. 10 miles inland would still not be a pretty picture when a cat 5 hits.

I drove 300 miles to get away from here (over to Houston).

What do the models show for your area?

I'm sure models exist. I'm sure evacuation plans exist. I'm also not dependent on the govt to spell it all out for me. I take category 5 storms very seriously. My evacuation plan would be...get the heck out of the way regardless of what the government told me.

The problem with models is they aren't wholly accurate. They may predict a behavior but the level of accuracy can change at any given moment.

So from my perspective the onus of being aware and reacting to disasters and storms that are beyond anyone's control lies on me. Not on the government.

I'm sure that you have the smarts to leave if you feel you have to. But much of the discussion here is that the government did not do enough, there was lack of preparedness and so forth.

My question still stands to you and many others here do you really know what a storm like this would to your area? By reading your response, you are assuming that this information exists, but yuo really don't know. What are your plans on helping your community to make sure that one does exist? Or are you not going to help to ensure that your community at least understands the possibility that could exist?

I am not trying to entice you or pin you down. I am trying to indicate that the problems exhibited here are even more prevalent than most are willing to except.

Look Art says, Hey we build to withstand cat 5's after Andrew.... Why not cat 5?

You mentioned "...that no building on floodplains...", right. Based on what type flood? 10yr flood? 100yr flood? or what?

I have read a lot of others here blaming New Orleans citizens for living in an area waiting for this to happen. But many of the same have no idea what would happen if this storm passed near them?

There will always be those who will refuse to leave or can't leave. I'm guessing most of us have the means to get the heck out of dodge. Who takes the responsibility for those who can't? Remember the onus is on the individual? How many poor are you taking out with you? Or will you leave them behind also?

Excellent questions and perfectly reasonable for you to be asking them.

The case of New Orleans is this...It has long been known that the city was vulnerable to flooding. Doomsday scenarios have existed for a long time predicting exactly what happened last week. So it wasn't a surprise that it happened. What was a surprise that the city itself was so ill prepared for the inevitable.

Since the city of New Orleans was built it was always known it was vulnerable to flooding. It's unique in its terrain in that in its natural state it is meant to be under water. Should my city ever flood completely the water would naturally drain because in its natural state it is meant to be dry. New Orleans relies on man made systems to keep itself dry. Until those systems are built in a manner that they will work 100% of the time under any circumstance this will happen again. I doubt man will ever build a system that will work 100% of the time.

I didn't say my house would be safe. A direct hit by a cat 5 would likely cause structural failure in parts of the house, depending on the wind direction.

The problem is that fleeing west or north might result in my being caught by an unexpected turn either in my car or a less secure structure.

Yes, it is difficult in Florida with hurricanes. Being in stuck in a car is unsafe to say the least. I am afraid that the flood surge could make it to you even 10 miles inland.

But I suspect that although you might rough out a smaller storm, you wouldn't stay for a cat 5 if you could get out.

Be safe and keep your out eye out for Ophelia.

No way a storm surge would ever get close to me. A tsunami wouldn't make it.

I wouldn't risk being in the way of a storm surge under any circumstances.

Well,
Our area is actually relatively sheltered from storms because of all the mountains around us, so the area has historically been relatively safe. As for the preparedness of the region, I would unfortunately have to say that your guess is as good as mine.
Herbert
Litespeed/QR

My personal plan is to batton down my house as usual for a hurricane (in Bermuda) - throw the outdoor furniture in the pool, bring in the plant pots, close the sliding glass doors, give my dog to my parents, unplug my computer and other electronics, tie my boat up well (we're in a protected bay), and retreat to higher ground - ie. London (courtesy of my employer).