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Marathon Goal Pace Question
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I'm training for a local marathon in February where I hope to qualify for Boston. For my age group (M 55-59), this requires a time of 3:45 or better (approx. 8:35 min/mi). I finished my only previous marathon 20 years ago in about 3:52, but I believe I am fitter today despite my age. In March of this year I completed a half mary in 1:35:43, which according to a race predictor translates into a 3:21:01 marathon. Because my running mileage is rather low by marathoner standards, however, I was thinking that a 3:30 goal (about 8 min/mi) might be more realistic. So I tried two experiments, which yielded seemingly conflicting results.

First, I did a brick in which I first tried to fatigue my legs by cycling fairly briskly for 1:20, and then immediately set out on a 30-minute run, aiming for an 8 min/mi pace. This pace felt too easy, however, and I ended up running at about a 7:40 pace instead, which still felt reasonably comfortable.

Then, a few days later, I did a two-hour run, trying out Hal Higdon's "3/1 training" concept. The first hour and a half I took it very easy, keeping my heart rate in the 120-140 range (my max running HR is around 185). In the last half hour, I tried out an 8:00 pace. This time, however, 8:00 felt very uncomfortable, and by the end of 2.75 miles at this pace my heart rate exceeded my estimated AT (high 150s). Since my intention was to run an endurance workout, I backed off the pace at that point.

Both experiments were run on flat terrain similar to my planned marathon. (One difference: the second experiment was done in light rain.)

Looking at these two seemingly divergent results, I have two questions:

1. What would be a good target marathon pace for me, both for training purposes and for pacing the actual event?

2. What implications might these conflicting results have for optimizing my training plan?

-----
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
Which is probably why I was registering 59.67mi as I rolled into T2.

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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [Rob C in FL] [ In reply to ]
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I've thought my way through the same question, but will know more in a month - race day - than I know now. I have used half-marathons as predictors, and used the "forecast" as a basis for my training.

The "tests" that you describe might be more valuable near the end of your training than now??? Also, be careful about using the run off the bike. Long bricks are part of my current marathon training, and I have a tendency to really roll when I start the run. Two thoughts go thru my head: "Ohhh, this is hard," and "Look at that - how can it be that FAST?!" In general, the bricks have helped me get my running to a higher cadence and a faster pace, but I really have to pay attention to those first few miles on the run to avoid blowing up later on.

FWIW, I'm 49. Have fun!!!!
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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [Rob C in FL] [ In reply to ]
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I'm in a similiar situation with a race coming up in December and here's my 2 cents....\

Short runs off the bike have little to do with marathon running. I can run fairly fast for 30 min even after a long bike but can't hold that pace for longer runs (or even close). I think the longer run is a lot more indicative....and you have lots of time to don't train so no worries....

Based on your 1/2 marathon time - if you train well with some good long runs, you should be able to qualify for Boston very easily.

How to pace a marathon is a tough question. I'd be careful trying to pace off time - esp. if you aim for a faster time than you need (i.e. aim for 3:30 when you only need a 3:45). If you start out a little too fast - you may really pay at the end and end up quite a bit slower. Runnersworld.com has some good tips for pacing. I'm considering pacing with a heart rate monitor and ignoring time/pace. You could also pace off perceived exertion. My goal is to start slowly and feel no pain or discomfort until at least 18-20 miles then start racing if I feel good and try to hang if I feel bad.....

David
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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [flyebaby] [ In reply to ]
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> Also, be careful about using the run off the bike. Long bricks are part of my current marathon training, and I have a tendency to really roll when I start the run.

You may have a good point. I'd assumed that my legs would be somewhat "trashed" coming off the bike and that my run pace would be correspondingly slower. For some of us, though, it may work the other way. I cycle at a high cadence (90-100), and that may naturally cause my run speed to pick up in the first miles of a brick. I've never really scientifically tested the question.

-----
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
Which is probably why I was registering 59.67mi as I rolled into T2.

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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [daveinmammoth] [ In reply to ]
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> I'd be careful trying to pace off time - esp. if you aim for a faster time than you need (i.e. aim for 3:30 when you only need a 3:45).

Yes, I've seen many authoritative sources that emphasize the importance of taking the early miles slow and trying to negative-split the entire marathon. For this reason, I obviously don't want to choose too ambitious a target pace. On the other hand, I observe that I typically slow down considerably near the end of my long runs. If that is my natural tendency, and if I choose a goal pace that is too close to the 3:45 cutoff, will I not almost inevitably fail to meet it?

Or is there some way I can overcome the tendency to slow down at the end through my training? Is it just a matter of trying to negative-split all my training runs?

-----
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
Which is probably why I was registering 59.67mi as I rolled into T2.

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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [Rob C in FL] [ In reply to ]
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Rob

My thoughts: I agree that running off the bike is not an indicator of marathon prediction, fitness etc. Secondly, guessing or estimating your LT based on Max HR is pointless. I think you should figure out what your LT is and then figure out your HR zones based on that. A 1/2 marathon will be a good test to help you determine what is possible in a marathon. For 1/2M pacing I usually suggest that my athletes run 5/5/5 method. 5 miles aerobic holding back, 5 miles at tempo, picking up the pace, and then 5k with whatever you have left. This strategy works real well as it FORCES you to start out easy and in control.

Pacing the marathon: This is always a tough one. But like the 1/2M I think you should always go for a negative split. Run the first 13.1 with ease knowing you could go 10-20 seconds per mile faster in the 2nd half. Once you hit the half way point you can pick up the pace and once again at 20 miles do the same thing. I like to say that a marathon is a 20 mile warm up for a 10k. I hope this helps! Good luck and let us know how you do!

PS - To figure out your LT you can use the test on my site or do an internet search, there are plenty if ways to do it. http://www.d3multisport.com/articles.html

Mike Ricci
2017 USAT World Team Coach
USAT National Coach of the Year
Coaching Triathletes since 1992.
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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [Mike Ricci] [ In reply to ]
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Thank you very much for your well-informed input. Actually, my estimate of my threshold was based not so much on my tested maximum HR, but rather on my direct perception, particularly on noticing my breathing patterns. But I think you are right that I need to test it more formally, either by a 30-minute TT as you recommend on your site or perhaps by a Concini test.

Again, thanks for your advice.

Rob

-----
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
Which is probably why I was registering 59.67mi as I rolled into T2.

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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [Mike Ricci] [ In reply to ]
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"I like to say that a marathon is a 20 mile warm up for a 10k."

AAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHH.................

Be that as it may, Mike, I have really enjoyed your posts on marathons this week and last. Your comments and info have been terrifically helpful and great food for thought, and they give me some confidence that I just might be on the right track with 5 weeks to go. Thanks!
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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [Rob C in FL] [ In reply to ]
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I've read that you should try to negative split your long runs and get used to running the 2nd half of your run faster than the first half....

I assume that if you slow down toward the end of your long runs - then its because you're either: 1) pushing too hard too early or 2) pushing the limit of your fitness.

I can't imagine that starting out fast in a marathon because you'll slow down toward the end is a good pacing strategy....I think you want to work really hard to either pace it evenly or negative split it.

On long runs - do you insert quick 20-30 seconds pick-ups every 10-15 minutes?

Good luck!!!
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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [flyebaby] [ In reply to ]
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"I like to say that a marathon is a 20 mile warm up for a 10k."

I have a friend who did this for training. He ran 20 miles at a leisurely pace - about 9 min/mile. He then kicked it into high gear and ran the last 10K at about 6:20 pace.

I've run 2 marathons this year. My first ever. I've found it difficult to run much faster than I do during training. If I train at less than race pace on my long training runs, where will the speed come from on race day? I'm considering more long, race pace or better runs for my next marathon. I want to focus on running strong during the last couple of miles of my long runs so I can feel what it's like to generate speed on tired legs.
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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [flyebaby] [ In reply to ]
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Rob - and Flyebaby -

You are welcome- anytime. Keep up the hard work.



MR

Mike Ricci
2017 USAT World Team Coach
USAT National Coach of the Year
Coaching Triathletes since 1992.
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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [daveinmammoth] [ In reply to ]
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Exactly right, Dave. Pushing too hard in the beginning will not be beneficial. Steady State running will help you the most. Pick a pace you can maintain for the entire race or long run.

Mike Ricci
2017 USAT World Team Coach
USAT National Coach of the Year
Coaching Triathletes since 1992.
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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [Tri2HaveFun] [ In reply to ]
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I've run 2 marathons this year. My first ever. I've found it difficult to run much faster than I do during training. If I train at less than race pace on my long training runs, where will the speed come from on race day? I'm considering more long, race pace or better runs for my next marathon. I want to focus on running strong during the last couple of miles of my long runs so I can feel what it's like to generate speed on tired legs.



>>My first question is how fast do you run in training? Next would be, how fast do you run a 10k? Do you know your HR zones?

Mike Ricci
2017 USAT World Team Coach
USAT National Coach of the Year
Coaching Triathletes since 1992.
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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [Mike Ricci] [ In reply to ]
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">>My first question is how fast do you run in training? Next would be, how fast do you run a 10k? Do you know your HR zones?"

For my first marathon I used CTS run training. Everything was based on HR. I established a personal HR max with a CTS field test and all the workouts were based from this information. In addition a CTS coach would run with us during our long runs. To stay within the HR zones my training runs were much slower than I previously ran.

I started running at age 44. I'm now 47. Last year my 10K times were in the 46-48 minute range. This year with all the slow running, my 10K times are over 50 minutes. Last year, before I was training based on HR, I ran a half in 1:50. This year I can't run a half faster than 2 hours. All the long, slow runs seem to have just made me slower. Even my short runs are slower in order to stay within the HR guidelines.

I questioned my CTS coach about how I was I going to somehow run faster in the race, when I never trained at race pace. Adrenaline may be a factor in a 5 or 10K but in a marathon? I was constantly told the speed would come, but it never did.

I just don't see how to run significantly faster in a race than I have during training.
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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [Tri2HaveFun] [ In reply to ]
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Personally, I don't see the point the HR max testing or deriving HR zones from there. You can read about my ideas on my site - I would rather use an LT test.

Basically I would run in the mid to upper end of your Zone 2 range - still aerobic but pushing the limits of Zone 3. If you can do this type of running day after day, I think you will be ok. If you can run in this zone one day, but not the next, then you are running too hard.

It sounds like your old program was a bit too slow for you - why don't you try an LT test - 30 minutes at a race like effort, taking the avg HR for the final 20 minutes. I have found this protocol highly effective. From here you can figure out what your zones are based on Friel or most other calculators that use LT to determine zones. If you need help, let me know.

Mike Ricci
2017 USAT World Team Coach
USAT National Coach of the Year
Coaching Triathletes since 1992.
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Re: Marathon Goal Pace Question [daveinmammoth] [ In reply to ]
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Dave,

I do the 20-30 second pick-ups occasionally in the long runs, but not as often as every 15 minutes.

As I already indicated, I have no quarrel with the principle that even or negative splitting is desirable, and in fact that is my goal. Training my body to do it, however, is much harder. My problem--not just in the marathon but in all my running races--is that my target pace feels so incredibly easy in the beginning and so hard at the end. (Is that perhaps because my muscles have become too tight over the course of the run?) I'm trying to combat this natural tendency by jogging at a very relaxed pace and low HR for the first 3/4 of my long runs, and then deliberately pushing the pace in the final miles.

-----
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
Which is probably why I was registering 59.67mi as I rolled into T2.

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