i would consider jason sager a top tier duathlete. my point was that you can't point to the dirty du and call lance a runner. if he won zofigen it would be another thing entirely.

There was an article in Runners World about this when Lance annouced retirement. Chris Carmichael was quoted in that articles saying that even though Lance is extremely gifted for aerobic activities Lance's best marathon would likely not be much below 2:40. That would be based on some of the things that have been talked about. Namely his age, and the lack of his running 100 mile weeks. Just like the best runners in the world are not likely to be a threat in the Tour next year.

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Brian

yep. it's not like he outran benny V

I don't think Lance is any bigger than Rob DeCastella from Oz !

I can't find the splts anywhere, but I don't think anyone's ever come close to 15 minutes on that Dirty Du course. I -think- the guy that was teamed up with Landis for the relay team - might have broken 16 minutes on one of the legs, but I can't say for sure. It's not a technical course, but there is a fair bit of hills(for Texas), quite a few logs to hop over and it was a bit muddy - not a fast course.



I don't think Lance would win any world class running events. He's got a motor, though, and will unfortuantely be competing in my age group at these events in a year. Sandbagger.

Well, while I think Lance could scare the living hell out of the pro's on the Xterra circuit, he ain't going to come anywhere near the top marathoners. He's a truly gifted piece of physiology, and if he lost a few more pounds (maybe get down to 145), with a good running coach there's no doubt he could nail a 2:30 to 2:40 on only about 60 miles per week. But why???

It will be interesting to see what he does after retirement. Hope it doesn't get silly. Unless he gets into politics, in which case it will get very silly. I'd like to see George W. call him a "Turd Blossom" and see what happens!

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FIST Certified Fitter
Salt Lake City, Utah

I hate to use the " i grew up with Lance", but i did, and still remain freinds with him. To answer a few questions:

He actually ran 15:02 at our district cross country meet, i know, i was on his team. Plano East High School 89 check it out if you want.

Hills of Oklahoma in 87 i think, we were 15, oly distance, i believe he went 1:53 or 54.

Lance and both Chann Mcrae did a race in the mid eighties ( again 15 ) that at the time was a half ironman and qualifier. I believe he went 4:15 something on a very hilly course. They both qualified but could not go because they were to young.

He follows ironman and was very intrested about how Chann and Larsen were doing. Kinda rooting against them to win. like he wants to be the first crossover.

I believe he coul drun 2:30, he has the genetics, but 2:15, he is WAY to big. Those guys are tiny.

Ironman, minus the pure swimmers, he was always one of the first out of the water, so he woul dnot be behind before the bike started.

51 swim ( or faster, Chann has swum this fast and he was a better swimmer than Chann ) 4:15 bike. Does he really have to run faster than 3:05. Chann has run 3:08 and again Lance runs faster than Chann.

My 4 cents ( i added 2 because if "grew up with him" )

Can you ask Lance to post his opinion on the matter? Give us the skinny straight from the horse's mouth.

Anyone check the IMUSA / Lake Placid entrants for 2006 to see if he made it before it sold out? ;)

he just missed signing up, time change and all from France!

I am sure that Graham will give him a celebrity slot :-)

Here's the scoop from someone who knew Lance in his tri days, and my own personal expirence with running a flat out marathon. I was just an average runner for a pro triathlete, and in my 30's, I ran several flat out 10k's in the mid to high 32 minute range. Lance was a faster pure runner than I was, so keep that in mind. At 37 years old, I decided to run a fast marathon for me, so I trained for 6 weeks, running 45 miles per week with Paul Huddle. We ran everything pretty fast, mostly under 6 min pace, but no big mileage. We rode once a week. I was on 2:32 pace at mile 24, blew big time, and hobbled in at 2:36. It was my best by 5 minutes. So at 34 years old, do I think Lance can run under 2:30, absolutely. How much under, I figure about 5 to 10 minutes. He has become an aerobic machine, and his talent to run is still there. He won;t have to run a 100 miles per week like some have suggested, just enough to get his legs through the 26 miles. If he actually said that he would run a 2:15 during his run training, then I would not bet against it. Saying that now really means nothing until he has a chance to do a few training races....

yann would smoke him too on a short course.

Id bet lance visits this website (he said in an interview once that hes an internet freak and reads what people say about him in the forums) and all the people saying he cant go 2:15 are just the motivation that lance uses to do impossible things. i think you are underestimating how tough it is to win the Tdf 7 times in a row. A man that can do that isnt normal. And if it was something he really wanted to do, i have no doubt he would do it. So my vote is "could" he do it yes, will he do it----??? Because he doesnt want history to look at him as a great cyclist that embarresed himself by bragging about being a fast runner and not measuring up to anyones expectations.

it seems that you are not thinking clearly. put down the peace pipe my fried.

look at pictures of the sub 2:15 marathoners. do they look like lance? no they don't; they are much slighter of frame and completely devoid of muscle mass. that is genetics that lance can never create. what have those people been doing the last 10 - 15 years of their life, they have been running and when they sleep they dream of running. when they speak they talk about running. they live and train at altitude and don't spend much time on a tour bus. there is no off season where they get fat. you can't run 2:15 and live lance's lifestyle. the sacrifice would be too much for him. if he was interested in suffering like that he would keep riding the tour. i'm not buying the "lance could will it argument". there have been many great endurance athletes with running back grounds who have failed at 2:15. lance can't do it. he's not a superhero. he can't bend the space time continuum. he can't run 2:15 no matter how bad he wants to or how bad you want him to just so you can come back on this board and say "told you so".

your argument reminds me of a line from the movie "singles" -- "this negativity only makes me stronger". if lance needs this board and my comments to motivate him it is a sad testimonal to how warped he really is.