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Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform
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It may not have been an extremely detailed new plan suggestions, but as far as counter-offers go it was clearly a first step:

"They said they would work with Mr. Bush on Social Security only if he would "publicly and unambiguously announce" that he rejected his proposal for private investment accounts financed by payroll tax revenues."
http://nytimes.com/2005/03/04/politics/04social.html

I also came upon a good list of 8 reasons why the SS Reform efforts have come very close to stalling:

"1. There was no great public hunger for the plan. People are generally satisfied with the retirement system, even though they're uneasy about its long-term health.

2. Bush offered few specifics during the campaign, so he can't claim a mandate.

3. The plan is complicated, making it impossible to explain in a couple of sound bites. See Hillarycare, 1994.

4. The administration had to admit that creating private accounts wouldn't do a thing to bolster the near-term solvency of Social Security. In other words, it wouldn't fix the "crisis" the president was trumpeting, at least for several decades.

5. In fact, the plan would worsen the $400-billion-plus federal deficit by requiring a trillion or two in "transition costs." That's a tough sell at a time when red ink is gushing, Medicare costs are exploding and Medicaid is on the chopping block.

6. The Democrats decided to just say no. Taking a page from Gingrich, Newt, 1994, they have stuck together, refused to compromise and generally let Republicans twist slowly in the wind. (It was interesting to see Tom DeLay complaining about how Dems won't come to the table when the House Repubs generally ignore them in pushing things through.)

7. Republicans went home to their districts and got an earful about the unpopularity of the Bush plan.

8. The polls showed the plan to be a loser, and everyone in Washington obsessively reads polls."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/nation/columns/kurtzhoward/

I agree with all 8 and also want to reiterate that only one of the 8 has to do with Democrats. While I hope the "take a page from Newt" thing won't start yet another "Well you did it first" thing, the Dem strategy has clearly been to demand specifics from President Bush, and allow lobbying groups to fight it out amongst themselves.

The 8 reasons aren't listed as why the reform will fail, but why it has stalled, and that the table is set now for actual negotiations if all sides are truly interested. Dems say private accounts are a non-starter. President Bush needs a new strategy or to come up with a much more convincing rationale for them. And Republicans who oppose the President's plan need to come up with something on their own too.

If something gets passed it's a no lose situation for the White House, they started all the debate, so they'll get to claim a good % of credit.
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Re: Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform [Tridiot] [ In reply to ]
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I thought compromises were supposed to be worked out at the negotiating table. Why would Bush want to compromise with himself?

Why is this thread entitled Counter-Offer on SS Reform? There is no counteroffer. That is the problem. The Democrats won't engage at any level. This may ultimately prove to be a smart strategy or a stupid stategy, but it will certainly prove to be a strategy that does not serve the American people.
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Re: Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform [Tridiot] [ In reply to ]
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I'd be curious to find out what "fundamental" chanegs can take place without private accounts. I'm sure they may exist but I'm unaware of them.

~Matt
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Re: Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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As I said, expressing the "Private accounts are a non-starter" thought is definitely a first step and is a counter-offer.

If I go to a car salesman and he tries to sell me an automatic instead of a manual car I'll tell him that is a non-starter. I have to have a stick. In my opinion that is a counter offer. It may not be the counter offer the salesman wants, but it still is.

The Dems have done the same thing. They want to buy a car, just not an automatic. They have told the President this, and now we will all sit around and wait for someone to say something of substance.

This is a negotiating strategy you are well aware of I'm sure, the old "He who speaks first loses" deal. If the car salesman says the price is $40k and I just sit there and wait, one of us will have to talk. I'm a prick, so I'll wait ten minutes and then leave. Odds are he breaks.

So we're to a chicken match here. The White House can keep it's mouth shut, or they can offer a new strategy since the Dems, the Republicans in Congress, and most constituents say private accounts won't work and are a non-starter.

PS: I think the "The White House won't negotiate against itself" line is great strategy, I love it when it is used in the press briefings. I might have to start using that at work.
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Re: Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform [MJuric] [ In reply to ]
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Well, any "fundamental" changes are surely going to be messy.

I guess one would be to move into a setup where you get out what you put in, plus 1-3% interest compounded on a monthly or bi-monthly basis.

The problem I think we're always going to run into is mitigating the interests of those retiring soon, or in the near-term against those of the working young Americans. And I feel worst for those who are stuck in the middle. Not young enough to benefit from the current system, but just "old" enough to get screwed.

They're going to either have to migrate everyone in a "big-bang" over to a brand new system all at once, which will never EVER EVER EVER happen (old people). Or they are going to have to phase it in, run at least 2 if not three programs in tandem. This will be very expensive. Or we'll just do what we did in the early 80's and restructure our SS debt.

Given the current political environment where everyone sticks to their rhetoric and the "other side" is viewed as an enemy I'm putting my money on my last method, 80's restructre redux.
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Re: Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform [Tridiot] [ In reply to ]
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Demanding a stick rather than an automatic is a response, but it is not a counteroffer.

Words mean things.
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Re: Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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I'll disagree, but that's ok because I'm sure we'll find a lot more stuff to disagree about in the future.

But here's how I view it as a counter offer:

Me: "I want to buy a car."
You: "Here's a nice automatic."
Me: "I don't want an automatic, I want a stick."
You: "How about this manual?"
Me: "That's good, now I want a red one."
You: "We only have black."

To me that is two counter offers. One by me, one by you. Sorry if my example offends by calling you a car salesperson.
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Re: Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform [Tridiot] [ In reply to ]
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"I guess one would be to move into a setup where you get out what you put in, plus 1-3% interest compounded on a monthly or bi-monthly basis."

Surprisingly I have no problem with this. I'd like to see a bit higher percentile say 30%, (Yes a joke). The problem I see however is that in order to accomplish this you must in someway "Grow the money". We can't simply pay out these types of percentages based on the current, pay in pay out system.

"Or they are going to have to phase it in,"

I think the only real choice is to phase it in. I also don't see how it will be all that expensive.

Here are some numbers Pulled from my ass. I'm basing mine on PA as that's what I'd like to see.

Currently the SS percent is around 12%. Let's simply raise that to 16%. We'll earmark that 4% for each individuals PA. this will leave the current system alone but begin to build PA's for those "in the middle". On some curve as those that are currently 100% reliant on SS and have no PA's, pass on and the burden on SS lessens we begin to switch the 12% to the PA's. Eventually, probably over a period of generations, the entire 16% will go to PA's and SS will be gone.

Of course I realize that some level of SS will still exist for those that simply can't or haven't worked or worked enough to provide a retirement for themselves. That's a different arguement IMO. I also realize that there will be some loss to each ensueing generation or group as they will actually be paying some percentage into a system that they will not get back. However depending on the length of phase in I suspect that could be a very small percentile.

~Matt
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Re: Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform [Tridiot] [ In reply to ]
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Words mean things. An offer is something that can be accepted resulting in a deal, or declined.

To use your example, I want that stick in black at this price would be an offer.

It seems like too many Democrats believe the Bush is a moron bit. He won't respond to this.
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Re: Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform [MJuric] [ In reply to ]
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Gee, let's simply take an additional 4% off the top of everyone's paycheck. I don't think you will pick up too many supporters for that one.

You might want to put those numbers back where you found them.
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Re: Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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We'll leave it to having different definitions of an offer, as there are several.

It doesn't seem like any of the Dems nor most of the Republicans in Congress are going to go for private accounts, so I don't think it is *just* on the Dems to put forth a new idea. There are at least three major parties (used in a general sense) involved in this. The Dems, Repubs or the WH can offer up the next idea. The WH seems to not be willing to do this, they gave the first idea so they won't negotiate against themselves.

But if Bush is trying to set the agenda on this topic he's going to have to do something besides insist that something has to be done. I think the window of opportunity on this issue is quickly closing and if the WH wants to wait out the other players then we'll go nowhere.
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Re: Dems Counter-Offer on SS Reform [ajfranke] [ In reply to ]
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The only saving grace here is that it's not "taking money from them". It's simply forcing them to save it.

Just like starting a job that has a retirement account that you would put 4% into. It wouldn't be a tax that you never saw again, it be put right into your account that you'd get a quarterly report on just like your IRA's. Of course you could also start out with a much lower number but that would increase the phase in time. 1%, .5% I don't whatever people are most comfortable with. Like I said Numbers where PFA'd for discussion purposes.

I think if it was explained to people that way they'd likely go for it. Especially if it was accompanied with a plan showing that in 10,20,30 whatever years the 12% they now pay into a general fund would also end up in their PA

~Matt
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