I feel your pain but you have to exercise your right to vote!

It is all projected at this point so you have to cast your vote to make it actually happen. Plus it gives you the right to complain. :)

The popular vote is important even though it doesn't determine who actually wins the presidency.

Because in just about every place, there are at least some state and local level races that are still very much up for grabs.

Even if Florida weren't in play, I'd still feel like I had to go vote in order to cast a 'no' for some truly stupid state constitution ammendment proposals up this year.

Here in Montana, Bush will sweep no matter what happens. They'd vote for Bush here if they found out he was a child molester. God, I miss the anti-government militia-types: Where'd they go? They were good for a chuckle, especially compared to all the Bush lovers around here now. Honestly, I'm tempted to not vote for either knucklehead. The choice is terrible.

So I may just vote on state and local stuff. -TB

I don't know why they bother to play football games most of the time. We already know who is going to win. Until it turns out that they lose, of course.

Mike Dukakis was up by 40% in the polls when running for nomination as the Democratic candidate for governor. He was the incumbent. Along with tens of thousands of others, I crossed over to vote in the Democratic primary in 1978. He lost.

Florida was a lock for Bush in 2000, until it turned out that it wasn't. I was one of the 537 votes that determined the state.

Don't ever think your vote doesn't count.

You still need to get out and vote! What if all the republicans stayed home because the polls said that Texas was already red and 1 too many stayed home? After 2000 how can anyone say that their vote doesn't count? Plus you need to choose in your local elections, they are the ones that are going to have an immediate impact on your life.

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jimmyk

Because it's a good excuse to come in late to work ("Damn that polling place was crowded! Sorry I'm late, boss!")... or to leave early ("Hey boss! I gotta go vote, and I want to beat the crowds, so I'm leaving at 4:30 today).

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Steve Perkins

I've honestly never run into a line at my polling location.

Those volunteers run the place like a swiss watch.

It's always efficient and friendly but firm.

When I retire it might give me something to do.

The Electoral College, sir. Who cares about the popular vote? Not me, certainly :-)

There are plenty of scenarios for how Bush can win in the EC, even without Florida or Ohio (but not without both). Because MN and WI are now in play (MN has become a "Red" state over the last four years, which it's been in the process of becoming over the last two decades), if Bush were to take those and lose one of the two Battleground states, he might still have the chance because Bush's "Red" states (which are in no danger of going to Kerry) have gained a net 5 EC votes since 2000, due to Census changes.

Kerry's got an EC structural disadvantage due to this change of 5 votes. Now, Kerry's got to gain at least 6 votes elsewhere, assuming Bush holds both OH and FL. If Bush loses one (but not both), and takes MN and WI, Kerry's still up a creek without a paddle.

Also, Kerry's struggling to hold onto all of the "Blue" states that Gore won in 2000, and hasn't been able to poach in any "Red" states except OH and FL, whereas Bush has been in once-safe "Blue" states like New Jersey. This forces Kerry to divide his forces in order to prevent an attack on his weak center. Not an enviable position to be in. It looks as if he's making an all-or-nothing gamble at the two states, and has recently also had to spend time in IA, which is a state that went for Gore by less than 4,000 votes in 2000.

Again, take a look at the states where both candidates have pulled ad and campaign monies from. If they start putting resources back into that state, that means that their respective internal polls (which they don't divulge to the public) are telling them that there's been a tightening in numbers.

http://www.electoral-vote.com (a Democrat-leaning website full of useful info about the EC) is a good source for following all of this stuff.

I agree. Right now I don't see how Bush will win WI, FL and OH. WI may be showing as being on the line but that State is democratic. I think OH will be tight but some polls are starting to show Kerry as the winner - which means that Bush will lose the election just by not winning WI and OH. And if 2000 showed us anything is that FL is very very close. Really depends on how many voters each party can get to show up on election day.

The republicans wanted Arnold leading CA to make that State closer, but it did not help at least for this election.

Bush will take OH and hold FL. Rassmussen (which was spot-on in predicting the 2002 elections and which uses the best formulas) shows a steady Bush gain week-over-week.

FL won't be close. Bush will hit at least the magical 50% number by next week's polls. Almost every poll with consistent and non-biased sampling has had Bush holding a steady lead in both states.

The NBC and AP polls use suspect methodologies. And any poll that won't publish its internals isn't worth considering. Also, there's a major difference in sampling bias in the regular AP poll versus the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Simply put, the networks are interested in making it appear as if the race is closer than it in fact really is for various reasons. Advertising, viewer interest etc. I won't address the perception of bias towards any one candidate other than to say that both campaigns feel predjudiced against.

In averaging of all polls over the last 3 months, Bush has maintained a consistent 3-8 point spread over Kerry. Whereas Bush has ranged anywhere from 46 to 51% support, Kerry has never managed greater than 47% support in his best week, and is averaging less than 45% right now, even with the Nader factor.

That, plus the fact that far more Kerry supporters think that Bush will win on November 2nd (20+ percent) and that Bush is doing better than expected on the black vote (8% in '00, and averaging as high as 18%....which will most likely fall to 13%, but is still a significant increase) could serve to depress voter turnout for Kerry if Bush gets to the 50% support mark, as has already happened in a few of the major polls.

Kerry also has a structural disadvantage, "Red" state versus "Blue" state, in the Electoral College. Bush's "Red" states have gained an additional 5 EC votes since '00 due to population shifts noted in the '00 Census. Kerry absolutely has to have either OH or FL to have a shot. And if he loses MN (which has been trending demographically to the Republicans over the last decade and which is showing as a dead heat, right now) and loses WI, which is showing Bush up by 4 points, Kerry's dead in the water.

Also, the candidates internal polls (which they base all campaigning decisions on), must be telling them something, else why would Bush spend time in New Jersey and other Kerry "Blue" states, and Kerry not venture outside of safe "Red" states and pull advertising and support from AZ, MO and a few others? The internals are forcing Kerry to stay on the defensive, mainly, and try to keep his flock from straying. Keep an eye on where candidates spend ad money and pour workers into or pull ad dollars and pull workers out of. That'll give you the best indicator of what each camp thinks of their chances in a particular state.

Lastly, WI went for Reagan in 1980 and 1984, and the exurban migration of populations away from the larger cities show a definite Republican tilt. Same goes for MN. All of this forces Kerry to waste time and money in states that he could once take for granted, leaving less time to work in OH and FL. Plus, he's had to have Bill Clinton go to formerly-safe PA, and Philadelphia in particular, in an effort aimed at keeping PA in the "Blue" column (some polls show a dead heat or Kerry only up by single digits ranging down to 1-4 points).

FL and OH, boys. It'll be a long night for Shrub if he can't hold 'em. But I don't think that's going to be a problem. My prediction still stands: Bush 53% of the vote, Kerry 46% and Nader et al 1% ;-) Bush 275 or more electoral votes, Kerry 265 or less.

Its the opposite in IL, If your a republican why vote... Well if the Red Sox can beat the Yankees and go to the world series maybe IL can go republican? That will depend on how many republican votes Chicago throws away. You gotta vote.

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Based on the polls and momentum Kerry is gaining I just cannot see him losing OH, which means that he wins the election.

I think the officials did everything possible in FL to make sure that elections there were again totally screwed up. I think this State is again too close to call. If Kerry does not win OH then we will have another Supreme Court SNAFU about FL again since the votes will have to be counted in FL to determine the winner.

However, I think OH will go to Kerry.

I think that you are wrong about Ohio; the President can win re-election without it. I think, for example, that he will win Michigan.

But, that's not the important point of this post. President is not the only race on your ballot. At a minimum, you will have a Congressional race. You have a two third's chance of having a Senate race. There are, more than likely, numerous other elections and issues on your ballot. Since you should be there to vote on them, you might as well cast a ballot for leader of the free world, don't you think?

I agree with you on voting for all the other candidates - the ones I always fall behind on are judges, park district officials, etc which DEFINITELY impact my immediate life by far more than the President.



Quick Q for you - is our President really the "leader of the Free World" anymore?

I sometimes have trouble keeping track of the judge candidates even though it's what I do for a living.

Zogby has Bush up by 3% in OH right now, for what that is worth. I have no idea how this state will sort out. Bush likely needs both FL and OH, though there are reasonable wayst to win without OH. It would be very tough to win without FL though. He would need OH and some good breaks in essentially every close state.

I saw an other poll on MSNBC last night that has Kerry up by 2% in OH and 1% in FL. If we assume that all the other States are locked, which they are not, then Kerry is looking good. Specially if he gets a break in some states like WI and TN and went against Gore in 2000.

Well, it all depends on what poll to believe. Frankly, I don't think any of them are worth anything when it gets this close. The turnout factor and the fraud factor are completely unpredictable. The pollsters are just guessing.

We will be fortunate to know by Wednesday morning.

I am expecting Kerry to declare victory regardless of the outcome. The Gore litigation has set a terrible precedent for our democracy. Nader is right that our democracy is in trouble.

I agree, the polls are somewhat worthless. Even averaging them all out we get nothing.

Wisconsin, Democrats? Right that's why we had a Republican, conservative, non english speaking governor for 12 years. Tommy Thompson, now serving in GWB's cabinet, almost makes GWB look like a good public speaker. We have had 2 Dems as our U.S. Senators for multiple terms but both (especially Feingold) are not afraid to buck the party line. Gore won Wisconsin in 2000 by 6,000 votes, hardly a Democratic mandate. It will be close again.