Spiridon Louis wrote:
Dems will probably do well if they keep running anti-Pelosi, pro-gun former Marines in conservative districts. I think PA and AL had more to do with the people running than with Trump. Lotta Trump voters couldn't tolerate Roy Moore in AL and I can see why a Trump voter would choose Lamb over the old dude the Repubs ran. I think incumbents will fare better than Repubs did in these 2 open-seat races.
This is going to be an interesting mid-term, no doubt. It almost makes me enjoy politics again.
Alabama's adoration of Moore should be an embarrassment to them, but they seem fine with it. I don't think you can draw many conclusions from that race.
The PA race should cause a little more worry in Trumplandia. There was nothing especially wrong with Saccone. He was kind of blah, but he wasn't chasing high school cheerleaders through the mall either. And this district went for Trump by 20 points, that's a big swing in 2 years. But one election does not make a trend.
I find it amusing that people don't understand that a lot of liberal don't like Pelosi as the mouthpiece of the Democratic Party, think abortion should be legal but also personally against it, and don't think all guns should be banned. I'm about as far left as you can get and I fit all 3.
538 ran an article in December,
https://fivethirtyeight.com/...cratic-wave-in-2018/ I think they make more of special elections than they actually are, but right now it is the only actual thing we can lay our hands on. And the trend is pretty apparent there.
But if I were the Republicans I would ask, has Trump gained supporters or lost them? Has he brought more people into the GOP or turned more people off? Do middle of the road voters want more or less people in Congress supporting Trump? Do you think the news around Trump will trend positive or negative between now and November?
He won by a razor thin margin across a small handful of states. Even if you don't care about the popular vote, a few states that swung it to Trump were very close. FL - 1.3%, MI - 0.3%, PA - 1.2%, WI - 1.0%. It doesn't take much erosion of support to have a very different map.
But we will see. In 7 or 8 months we will have our answer.
I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.