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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [WX] [ In reply to ]
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Lest you think I am always a wet blanket, most encouraging is you had the 3rd best run split. Clearly you have the run talent to be competitive. But the bike is such a disproportionally huge part of an Ironman that you may never have the opportunity to let that run out you into contention for a slot, made more difficult if you are so far back in the water. And you will be pretty far back out the water, swim gains in such a short period if time are the hardest to achieve.

-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [Bryancd] [ In reply to ]
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Bryancd wrote:
Lest you think I am always a wet blanket, most encouraging is you had the 3rd best run split. Clearly you have the run talent to be competitive. But the bike is such a disproportionally huge part of an Ironman that you may never have the opportunity to let that run out you into contention for a slot, made more difficult if you are so far back in the water. And you will be pretty far back out the water, swim gains in such a short period if time are the hardest to achieve.

There are 2 sides to this. Swim gains in speed and basic swim fitness.

A really crappy olympic distance swim almost never hurts the Olympic distance run. A 50 min half IM swim barely hurts the half marathon at the end (it will some). a 1:40 IM swim, can easily turn a 3:10 runner into a 4:10 runner. So I'd say that the OP has to stop worrying about the run and bike training and get the swim in order. Have you noticed how many good Ironman athletes come from a strong swim background? No suprises there, even though the swim seems to be such a small percent of the Ironman day.
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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No, but a really crappy swim in an Olympic destroys the entire race as it's proportionally a greater % of the race. A half swim is only a couple 100 meters longer so you can get away with a weaker swim. I know you are taking energy required and the impact in the run. I am talking about placement as that will be the deciding factor for WX in his effort to KQ.

-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [Bryancd] [ In reply to ]
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Bryancd wrote:
Lest you think I am always a wet blanket, most encouraging is you had the 3rd best run split. Clearly you have the run talent to be competitive. But the bike is such a disproportionally huge part of an Ironman that you may never have the opportunity to let that run out you into contention for a slot, made more difficult if you are so far back in the water. And you will be pretty far back out the water, swim gains in such a short period if time are the hardest to achieve.

Also keep in mind that based on some reports, if you're not under abotu 1:05... tack on another 1 minute minimum getting through transition and losing another 1-2 minutes out on the course passing slower bike traffic.

I know that a KQ in my age group means that you're among the top 40 in the entire race including pros. If you can come out of the water in the top 100, that's a huge benefit in terms of who you get to ride with, less traffic easier time with handoffs at aide stations on the 1st lap, etc. Hard ot go for a KQ when your over 1:10 unless your a solid cyclist to make up for it. At this poinit as mentioned, while a very solid runner, you still need ot get a lot faster on the bike. Yes, you did have slow wheels.

For comparision, I rode 56mi Sat with box rims, a 25c gatorskin in rear and a 28c commuter tire in front, standard helmet and rode around about the middle of zone 2 (just a little below IM pace). I also rode about 20% of the time sitting up and stopped twice to pee, rolling hills. Average pace was 19.5mph. That same ride with my race wheels and staying aero more is around 21.5mph.

So OTOH, you might not be too far off on the bike. a 1:06 with yur set-up might get you to abotu 1:00:30 with a good set of wheels and aero helmet depending on the course. But you again, need ot be stronger on hte bike because of your swim and so you can still run well off the bike.


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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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This. And its not even fair to the OP to compare an oly result to how he might fare in an IM. I know guys who can go sub 2 oly (or very close) and smoking fast over a 70.3 and still fall apart in an IM. Right now I'd say long shot, but we'll see how the 70.3 goes. IF he were one of the stronger bike/runners in an IM event, you could maybe get away with a 1:10-1:15 swim. Lots of work to do there. Luckily, it doesn't really take much to get to that point. Good luck OP, looking forward to seeing how the next one goes.
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [apbadger] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks for the update! Keep updating us here. Don't worry about those who are trying to drag you down. Yes, some are trying to give you good advice and encouragement - just listen to those posts. Give it your best shot!

I would work on your swim stroke (shoot, if you don't have a swim coach right now just watch some Total Immersion Swim videos on youtube or something). Just keep working on your swim form hard for the next few months. Also, put lots and lots of time on the bike. Use Trainer Road or something similar that can help you get some really quality workouts in.

Swim efficiently, and get lots of quality bike rides in. You're a runner so naturally you'll be fine there.

Also, not to be underestimated, try to keep learning. While you are running throw on a good podcast like "Training Bible Coaching Podcast". They have tons of great past episodes, and you are going to learn something on each one. You'll gain encouragement and wisdom each time. They also have course previews for a lot of the races.

Good luck, and keep updating us!
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [WX] [ In reply to ]
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The good:

The run was 6.4, and the swim was long and against the tide. I was 25:55 - 5 minutes slower than a normal olympic. So add probably 3-4 minutes, and that's your current half im swim (38min). That bike course is also very difficult. On the same watts you could definitely break 60min. I did back to back sub 60min 40k's at Eagleman on less watts than it took to go 1:03 on Saturday. I have a very good setup and very aggressive position though.

The bad:

I rode 1:03:55 on the same watts I rode at Timberman, where I rode 2:21. (This weekend I was coming off a half ironman 5 days prior - Pumpkinman - so I was just doing Lobsterman for fun, since it's one of my favorite courses. My legs were still pretty roasted, so the bike and run were actually a bit slower watts and pace wise than Pumpkinman). Assuming you could hold the same wattage and run the same pace for 56 miles and 13.1 miles respectively, and knock off quite a few minutes off your swim - I'd say you have a shot at qualifying. But it won't be easy. I had a very good day at Timberman, but didn't even win my age group. I was also 2nd at Eagleman on an ok day and didn't qualify for Kona. So you'll need a race with a lot of slots up for grabs since winning won't be guaranteed.

If there's any advice I can give, it's don't underestimate the amount of work or experience necessary to race long course well. You're going to need to ride your bike a lot - not just hard - but also a lot of time in the saddle. Definitely 5 hour rides every weekend. I'd probably ride long on Sat and Sun if I were you. And you'll need to run a lot too. You'll also need to figure out fueling. It took me 5 halves before I took in enough fuel (I personally don't burn any fat, haha). I'd be fucked in an IM - and certainly don't plan on hitting a respectable time in my first attempt. So you're gonna need to figure that stuff out in training. If you were some kind of genetic freak, or you had run 100+ mpw in college, then you might be able to get away with a moderate training load. But since you're one of us regular folks, you're honestly going to need to hit 20 hours a week between now and the race to have a shot. If you're serious about wanting to qualify, you have to commit pretty much everything to it. If you were taking a longer term approach that might not be true, but since you've given yourself such a short window, you really have to go all in. It took me about 4 years of moderate/consistent work and high run mileage winters to get where I'm at, and I came from a running and swimming background.

If you want me to put you in touch with the right people in Boston, shoot me a pm or email.

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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [snackchair] [ In reply to ]
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He's 25-29, assuming he doesn't age up next year he will be lucky to have 3 slots in the AG. And I don't see that I or anyone else is being negative towards him. I think we are being frank and realistic considering the amount if training time the OP has committed to this.

-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [Bryancd] [ In reply to ]
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Yeah, I wasn't trying to be negative either, just realistic. And give him some perspective since I did the same race last weekend. It's not *too* late to put in the work necessary to qualify, but it's going to need to be an insane amount of work.

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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [snackchair] [ In reply to ]
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snackchair wrote:
Yeah, I wasn't trying to be negative either, just realistic. And give him some perspective since I did the same race last weekend. It's not *too* late to put in the work necessary to qualify, but it's going to need to be an insane amount of work.

Agreed and he has stated he can only give 12 hours per week.

-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [Bryancd] [ In reply to ]
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Bryancd wrote:
He's 25-29, assuming he doesn't age up next year he will be lucky to have 3 slots in the AG. And I don't see that I or anyone else is being negative towards him. I think we are being frank and realistic considering the amount if training time the OP has committed to this.

Yes, only 3 slots, but the depth of the FOP field is I think usually thinner. Talking with a couple guys that KQ'd at IMWI in the younger age groups, they'd have ot get a LOT faster ot KQ in 30-34, 35-39, 40-44.

Younger guys also recover faster, so you need less recovery. With only 12 hours to work with, the focus should be developing power on the bike, technique and sprinting on the swim, and then fitting in whatever running volume you can between. The least focus on the run.

If it's only 12 hours, then it needs to be 12 hours orf well planned and structured workouts each and every week.


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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [apbadger] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
IF he were one of the stronger bike/runners in an IM event, you could maybe get away with a 1:10-1:15 swim

A 1;15 takes him out completely. There are probably < 15 people in the world who swim that on a legit course and KQ. A 1;10 is on the bubble you need a race with 7 slots minimal. It's hard to get into the top 10 with that swim even with a strong bike and run. I've seen it done about 10x, it's always been one of the last 2 spots in a 75-100 KQ spot field or in 50% of the cases a roll down.

If I was a 1;15 swimmer I'd roll the dice with some serious pool work for a few months, 30-40k per week.

EDIT: forgot he's 25-29 which makes it easier. Thought he was 30-34 or 35-39

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Last edited by: desert dude: Sep 16, 13 10:50
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [desert dude] [ In reply to ]
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desert dude wrote:
In Reply To:
IF he were one of the stronger bike/runners in an IM event, you could maybe get away with a 1:10-1:15 swim


A 1;15 takes him out completely. /quote]

Thanks everyone (including Bryan, and I'm being honest) for your cador and advice. One question on this... A 1:15/5:00/3:05 + transitions seems like it'd still be a pretty good race - is there an outsized benefit to getting out of the water 5 minutes faster? Is it just to have a good pack to ride with?

I'm definitely going to up my swim to 5x/week. Hopefully 15K won't cause my shoulders to fall off. 30-40K/week definitely will at this point of my swim fitness.
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [motoguy128] [ In reply to ]
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motoguy128 wrote:
Yes, only 3 slots, but the depth of the FOP field is I think usually thinner. Talking with a couple guys that KQ'd at IMWI in the younger age groups, they'd have ot get a LOT faster ot KQ in 30-34, 35-39, 40-44.


Calling bullshit on this. I was 4min off qualifying in 25-29 at IMWI and I would have qualified in every other AG except 30-35. And that's with my abysmal 1:19 swim in my first go round at 140.6. I promise you I'm no genetic freak (for what it's worth, I think of myself a MOPer) and did not put in many weeks over 12 hours. N=1 here.

tweets.
Last edited by: siegfried08: Sep 17, 13 0:02
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [WX] [ In reply to ]
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Wow...5 flat bike followed be a 3:05 run, huh? Well, I do the flat bike, but I train 6000+ miles per year on the bike which will be beyond your allowable weekly time allowance. And the best I have ever run off a 4:54 bike was a 3:21 run on a flat IMAZ course. So you pretty much are going to go from being slower then me currently in swim/bike to faster within the next what, 10 months? On 12 hours per week. This is why I am having difficulty seeing how you can do that, again within the time frame you have.

-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
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Last edited by: Bryancd: Sep 17, 13 5:43
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [WX] [ In reply to ]
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A 1;15 takes him out completely.


You should read the race report posted from Noahman. He was in the 40-44 age group in WI, swam 1:32 and qualified for Kona
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [Sanuk] [ In reply to ]
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But he was 6th in an AG with 2X the available slots.

-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [Sanuk] [ In reply to ]
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Just because something is possible doesn't mean it's probable. Random outliers make terrible evidence.

There's no way a 10:25 qualifies in the 25-29 age group.

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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [snackchair] [ In reply to ]
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Just because something is possible doesn't mean it's probable. Random outliers make terrible evidence.


I'm not trying to prove anything, just trying to give the OP some encouragement.
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [siegfried08] [ In reply to ]
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Yes and no. The guys I was talking to at my last 70.3 had qualified in 18-24 in 2012. 25-29 did seem comparable because having less slots, meant that while a top 5 was slightly slower, getting a top 3 for a KQ was in fact harder.

However, 1-3 in 35-39 was a LOT faster tha nthe top finisher in 25-29, but things dropped off quickly after that. It seems like the top 1-3 in 30-34 and 35-39 are often fast enough and may have even achieved the qualifying standard to go professional but choose not to. Probably for family or personal reasons. Those fast enough to go pro under 30, probably jump at the chance since they figure they have more future protential. Just a theory. Jsut go to USAT and look at hte season ending rankings and the number of "*" after those at the top of 30-40, vs. <30. Some guys like Iott and Zucco enjoy kicking age group butt. Seems like one or both of them are on the starting lists of at least one IM 70.3 every month.

Sometimes I wish they had some kind of provisional slots that used the USAT scoring system to determine a qualifying time to allocate a couple extra slots to the next 2 or 3 fastest athletes that might have missed out because their age group was deeper at the top than usual. IT is kind of crap when a 35-39 guy going a 10:09 gets in but maybe a 25-29 or 30-34 at 10:04 doesn't. Either that or maybe a amature version of the pro point system as an alternate qualifier. I guess it just makes those on the bubble have to train that much harder and have that perfect race.


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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [siegfried08] [ In reply to ]
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siegfried08 wrote:
motoguy128 wrote:

Yes, only 3 slots, but the depth of the FOP field is I think usually thinner. Talking with a couple guys that KQ'd at IMWI in the younger age groups, they'd have ot get a LOT faster ot KQ in 30-34, 35-39, 40-44.


Calling bullshit on this. I was 4min off qualifying in 25-29 at IMWI and I would have qualified in every other AG except 30-35. And that's with my abysmal 1:19 swim in my first go round at 140.6. I promise you I'm no genetic freak (for what it's worth, I think of myself a MOPer) and did not put in many weeks over 12 hours. N=1 here.

IMWI also has the weakest field, being it's so close to Kona.
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [lotzn3119] [ In reply to ]
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lotzn3119 wrote:
siegfried08 wrote:
motoguy128 wrote:

Yes, only 3 slots, but the depth of the FOP field is I think usually thinner. Talking with a couple guys that KQ'd at IMWI in the younger age groups, they'd have ot get a LOT faster ot KQ in 30-34, 35-39, 40-44.


Calling bullshit on this. I was 4min off qualifying in 25-29 at IMWI and I would have qualified in every other AG except 30-35. And that's with my abysmal 1:19 swim in my first go round at 140.6. I promise you I'm no genetic freak (for what it's worth, I think of myself a MOPer) and did not put in many weeks over 12 hours. N=1 here.


IMWI also has the weakest field, being it's so close to Kona.

It does seem like it's heavier on locals. Is it truely weaker?... or do those looking to KQ more the one & done type just taking and earlier shot. Lots of strategies there. I bet you have the least rolldowns. Who's going to pass up a KQ slot for hte following year.

It might be a thinner field in part because it's not a flat drag strips bike that seems to draw a lot of folks looking to kq.


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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [siegfried08] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:
I was 4min off qualifying in 25-29 at IMWI and I would have qualified in every other AG except 30-35

You also forgot about M30-34.
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [motoguy128] [ In reply to ]
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I think the strength of the IMWI course ebbs and flows.

Some years it's epic, other years it's not.

It's also definitely not a drag race.
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Re: One shot at Kona - here goes! [Bryancd] [ In reply to ]
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Bryancd wrote:
Wow...5 flat bike followed be a 3:05 run, huh? Well, I do the flat bike, but I train 6000+ miles per year on the bike which will be beyond your allowable weekly time allowance. And the best I have ever run off a 4:54 bike was a 3:21 run on a flat IMAZ course. So you pretty much are going to go from being slower then me currently in swim/bike to faster within the next what, 10 months? On 12 hours per week. This is why I am having difficulty seeing how you can do that, again within the time frame you have.

This is what most people new to the sport don't understand--it takes A LOT of work usually put in over a few years in order to qualify unless you've got some serious talent. The people putting in 15-20 hrs/week for a couple of seasons have a serious advantage over someone putting in 10-12 hours/week.
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