The good:
The run was 6.4, and the swim was long and against the tide. I was 25:55 - 5 minutes slower than a normal olympic. So add probably 3-4 minutes, and that's your current half im swim (38min). That bike course is also very difficult. On the same watts you could definitely break 60min. I did back to back sub 60min 40k's at Eagleman on less watts than it took to go 1:03 on Saturday. I have a very good setup and very aggressive position though.
The bad:
I rode 1:03:55 on the same watts I rode at Timberman, where I rode 2:21. (This weekend I was coming off a half ironman 5 days prior - Pumpkinman - so I was just doing Lobsterman for fun, since it's one of my favorite courses. My legs were still pretty roasted, so the bike and run were actually a bit slower watts and pace wise than Pumpkinman). Assuming you could hold the
same wattage and run the
same pace for 56 miles and 13.1 miles respectively, and knock off quite a few minutes off your swim - I'd say you have a shot at qualifying. But it won't be easy. I had a very good day at Timberman, but didn't even win my age group. I was also 2nd at Eagleman on an ok day and didn't qualify for Kona. So you'll need a race with a lot of slots up for grabs since winning won't be guaranteed.
If there's any advice I can give, it's don't underestimate the amount of work or experience necessary to race long course well. You're going to need to ride your bike a lot - not just hard - but also a lot of time in the saddle. Definitely 5 hour rides every weekend. I'd probably ride long on Sat and Sun if I were you. And you'll need to run a lot too. You'll also need to figure out fueling. It took me 5 halves before I took in enough fuel (I personally don't burn any fat, haha). I'd be fucked in an IM - and certainly don't plan on hitting a respectable time in my first attempt. So you're gonna need to figure that stuff out in training. If you were some kind of genetic freak, or you had run 100+ mpw in college, then you might be able to get away with a moderate training load. But since you're one of us regular folks, you're honestly going to need to hit 20 hours a week between now and the race to have a shot. If you're serious about wanting to qualify, you have to commit pretty much everything to it. If you were taking a longer term approach that might not be true, but since you've given yourself such a short window, you really have to go all in. It took me about 4 years of moderate/consistent work and high run mileage winters to get where I'm at, and I came from a running and swimming background.
If you want me to put you in touch with the right people in Boston, shoot me a pm or email.
___________________
Twitter | Kancman | Blog