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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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From the Science of Sport site:




It turns out that with NO WIND, the power output required on the climb is approximately 422W. A tail-wind speed of 3m/s (10km/hour) reduces the power output required to 387W, which is a pretty sizeable difference.
in all likelihood the wind effect probably creates a number somewhere in the middle, which doesn't seem all that crazy for ~20 minutes.

True. I think that Joaquin dude put up those same numbers on that climb.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [roady] [ In reply to ]
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True. I think that Joaquin dude put up those same numbers on that climb.

LOL!

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Basically they have 9 tenants, live life to the fullest, do not turn the cheak, and embrace the 7 deadly since. - TheForge (on satanists)
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [roady] [ In reply to ]
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One thing I have really noticed riding in the Alps on hot summer afternoons. You'll generally find a STRONG wind blow from the valley up the slopes of the col. That's why the parasailing guys are always taking off on a peak that is just above a mountain pass, cause the warm air from each valley rises up and meets and forms a nice thermal effect.

In the case of a climb like this, although it is not a col, you would then get a crosswind on each straight section and a tailwind on each switchback propelling you with some acceleration into the next straight. Don't know if this dynamic played out on this climb from a wind perspective.

Dev
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [roady] [ In reply to ]
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I saw Alex' post, but I don't agree with some of his assumptions--and I think Sorenson's file is in conflict with is as well.

In what way? Based on the fact that he (Sorensen) went at nearly 20% over his FTP for the first 4 minutes, how is it unthinkable that his power over the climb duration could be that low? Don't forget, he's already demonstrated in this tour that he can put out 6.1W/kg over 20 minutes in the middle of a stage.

Also, as you pointed out yourself, relying on Sorensen's file as a "clue" operates under the risky assumption that his SRM is not only calibrated correctly, but that it was zero'd properly as well.


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-CdA there's no possible way his CdA is anywhere close to .28, particularly since he was standing for most of the climb. I'd suggest it could literally be almost double that figure


Double? I doubt it. Heck, I'm a lot bigger than Alberto and my CdA on the hoods of my road bike isn't much more than what Alex assumed. Besides, even if I bump the CdA up to .35 (a 50% increase over Alex's CdA assumption) that increases the power requirement with zero wind to 410W for 20 minutes, i.e. 6.8W/kg at an assumed 60kg of body weight. That's still not out of the realm of possibility for a world class climber over that duration.

http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I think everybody's missing the point.

9 guys on this one climb finished with a VAM that would make this all time list!!!!!!!

The climb was an outlier. Maybe it was the wind, maybe something's off with the calculations but 9 guys making this list tells me it's something other than some theoretical doping by Contador.

JJ

Every night that I run, the thought crosses my mind that there's no way in hell I'll still be running a month from now.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RACERX] [ In reply to ]
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Andy Schleck's performance should also be on this chart.

Dave in VA
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jsquared] [ In reply to ]
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I guess that is my point. About wind/thermals. Maybe it was a fast climbing day and we know those days exist. It is not like he demolished the field, by something like 3 minutes...it was 40-120 seconds. Large but believable.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jsquared] [ In reply to ]
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I think everybody's missing the point.

9 guys on this one climb finished with a VAM that would make this all time list!!!!!!!

The climb was an outlier. Maybe it was the wind, maybe something's off with the calculations but 9 guys making this list tells me it's something other than some theoretical doping by Contador.

JJ

Or...maybe VAM is, as I said before, just a poor estimate? It's fine as a "quick and dirty" rule of thumb...but that's about it.

http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Good observation as usual. I hope there is nothing subversive going on.

Eh gad- the possibilities are cause for concern....

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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I think everybody's missing the point.

9 guys on this one climb finished with a VAM that would make this all time list!!!!!!!

The climb was an outlier. Maybe it was the wind, maybe something's off with the calculations but 9 guys making this list tells me it's something other than some theoretical doping by Contador.

JJ

Or...maybe VAM is, as I said before, just a poor estimate? It's fine as a "quick and dirty" rule of thumb...but that's about it.
And I can buy into that theory but all the hubbub of this thread is based on this "impossible VAM" number of Contador's and my take is that it was a great performance but since 9 guys made the gold list on this one climb there's something about the dynamics of this particular climb on this particular day that's points to the climb itself and not an indictment of Contador. His winning by 47 seconds is pretty common place over the history of the tour.

JJ

Every night that I run, the thought crosses my mind that there's no way in hell I'll still be running a month from now.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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The difference is there is no competition in the women's field. There is more likely to be outliers when you are only sampling from a small portion of the population. Now that more women are actually training her performances don't look as spectacular.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Not really...what actually disturbs me is how many people are suckered into thinking VAM is the "be all and end all" of evaluating climbing performance, when in reality it's just a poor proxy for W/kg.

Check out Alex Simmon's final post in the comments from that blog's previous entry:

http://www.sportsscientists.com/...or-takes-yellow.html

[..]

I agree with Alex...

My general impression is that the authors of that blog are a tad too quick in hitting the "publish" button.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Are you serious?

I would have been disturbed if the numbers would have been a lot smaller.
Is it still not common knowledge that the top contenders are drugged up? What else has to happen? It has been that way for almost EVER.
Do you really believe Floyd Landis or Ricco have been the only guys on juice when they got caught?

Guys... get a grip!

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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what we used to have here on this site were thread titles like, "lance is a doper." we don't allow accusations like that. i treat those sorts of accusations just like i'd treat them if it was a pro triathlete, or an age group triathlete, or a slowtwitch forum reader. you don't make an accusation that might be harmful to a person's reputation, any more than i would go to your place of work and say, to everyone who worked with you, that you were an embezzler, or that you were surfing the internet on work time ;-)

rappstar is not saying contador is a doper. he is noting some calculations done by someone who studies professional cycling in an analytic way, in as tasteful a way as he can while raising a distasteful question.

in 1983 a 32 year old woman from czechoslovakia, jarmila kratochvilova, who had never shown anything like this sort of talent, broke 1:54 for 800m and 48sec for 400m, the first time, i believe, either of those feats had ever been accomplished by a woman. it might be instructive to google images of her. i'm not accusing her of doping, because i have no evidence. but i do think it's fair to raise a question where the evidence begs questions, as tastefully as one can, and while honoring one's presumption of innocense.

where's the line? i don't know. i, like you, am making this up as i go along. we all have to use our best judgment.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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what we used to have here on this site were thread titles like, "lance is a doper." we don't allow accusations like that. i treat those sorts of accusations just like i'd treat them if it was a pro triathlete, or an age group triathlete, or a slowtwitch forum reader. you don't make an accusation that might be harmful to a person's reputation, any more than i would go to your place of work and say, to everyone who worked with you, that you were an embezzler, or that you were surfing the internet on work time ;-)

rappstar is not saying contador is a doper. he is noting some calculations done by someone who studies professional cycling in an analytic way, in as tasteful a way as he can while raising a distasteful question.

in 1983 a 32 year old woman from czechoslovakia, jarmila kratochvilova, who had never shown anything like this sort of talent, broke 1:54 for 800m and 48sec for 400m, the first time, i believe, either of those feats had ever been accomplished by a woman. it might be instructive to google images of her. i'm not accusing her of doping, because i have no evidence. but i do think it's fair to raise a question where the evidence begs questions, as tastefully as one can, and while honoring one's presumption of innocense.

where's the line? i don't know. i, like you, am making this up as i go along. we all have to use our best judgment.

You know what, though? Whenever the subject of "outlier performances" being indicative of nefarious actions comes up...I always think of a single name: Bob Beamon

http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Duck?



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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Watching him climb reminded me very much of Ricco and Chicken Legs. That said, I really would be shocked (to the extent that is possible in cycling anymore) if he tested positive. Doesn't Astana do the biological passport thing (yes, I am sure I have the wrong term for it), which I thought all but eliminated the chance of doping.

I think he's clean and amazing.

(oh and since everything must have a Lance component and I am a HUGE Lance fan- that dude is simply old and past his prime. Hate to see it, but still love watching him kind of mix it up)
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Agreed. And also Michael Phelps, who might be the single athlete who would surprise me if he got busted.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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"Whenever the subject of "outlier performances" being indicative of nefarious actions comes up...I always think of a single name: Bob Beamon"

good point. i don't believe beamon took drugs, and really one assumes if he did there would have been a few other such jumps. at least something in the 28 foot range (he flew right over that). and that's why it's a good idea not to just say, "he takes drugs." i bring up the story of kratochvilova, because afaik she still holds both the 400m and 800m world records, except for the 400m record set in 1985 by east german marita koch, who has been implicated as a doper with documentary evidence in support. (koch's 400m WR still stands.) i don't know if kratochvilova took drugs and, while i would pull a post that unequivocally states that she did, i think it's fair to talk about it. likewise contador. i believe he was implicated in fuentes but then cleared, was he not? i don't remember all the details. so, talk, but don't accuse. that's about as much guidance as i can give.


Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tri Poseur] [ In reply to ]
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"Bernhard Kohl, the Austrian cyclist who finished third in last year's Tour de France before testing positive for a previously undetectable form of EPO, has revealed the extent of his doping practices, and claimed the much-vaunted biological passport programme of the International Cycling Union (UCI) is ineffective in ­catching cheats."

the biological passport isn't there to catch cheaters, it is there to make fans think the sport is clean

Ride Scoozy Electric Bicycles
http://www.RideScoozy.com
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [hank rearden] [ In reply to ]
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thats a MAN, baby!

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Duck?


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Agreed. And also Michael Phelps, who might be the single athlete who would surprise me if he got busted.

But, he already did get "busted"...it just wasn't for a PED. Well...at least it's not a PED for swimming ;-)

http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Zooma] [ In reply to ]
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He was not exactly gasping for air as he blew the best in the world away.

Did you see Contador completely collapse after he crossed the line though? There is ALWAYS someone who is the best in the world, doping or not. Maybe AC is dirty (I hope not, and he has been fairly consistent which I think speaks in his favour), hopefully he is clean, but I don't think he is doing anything that the rest of the peloton is not.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jsquared] [ In reply to ]
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If you watched the lead-up to the climb, there were massive power windmills that face up the valley up to Martigny. I rode that valley a ton last year, (and did the ride from TeamTBB camp near the Col de Mosses to Sion a couple weeks ago), and the Verbier climb to watch the Tour de Suisse last year. There's always a jamming tailwind on the way to Martigny, and there's a tailwind leading up to foot of the climb. The peloton was hand-delivered to the break and the foot of the climb at the base of the big climb without even trying.

But the other factor is that it was once they came off the false flat and hit the base of the climb, it was "only" 8.7k to the top, relatively short. So everyone was just going balls to the wall. I think that's why you saw nine guys with amazing VAMs; it didn't require the pacing that something like the 21k Mont Ventoux will require, so everyone figured this was the moment to turn yourself inside out and gut it out to the finish. In my experience, there's no wind once on the switchbacks, it was only through the valleys. But for as steep and hard as it was, it was short. So everyone was going redline without regard of potentially blowing up. Methinks.

Jay Prasuhn
Marketing Specialist, American Bicycle Group (Quintana Roo//Litespeed//Obed)
twitter.com/jayprasuhn

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [uli] [ In reply to ]
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Totally agree.

I can't find the link but within the last 2 weeks there was a thread with a link to an article on Lance and the Tour it which it was said that doping in cycling is common knowledge and accepted in Europe (much like affairs for politicians "but of course") and that Americans are absolutely kidding themselves if they think otherwise. Seems that many still are.

I just assume that they're all on it and why should that effect my enjoyment? Regardless Contador is the best and amazing to watch.


[edit: No need to tell me that one speculative article is proof of nothing]
Last edited by: moulli: Jul 20, 09 16:28
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