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Going to war (trade) with China
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I am on my first visit, staying in Beijing and working in the metro area

I have never seen anything like it

India is densely populated in urban areas but broadly speaking its pretty dirty

Indian railways are amazing but again whilst service is good they are dates

China is unbelievable

Beijing is more than 40% the size of the UK

I can not get over the development and the scale of it

The physician I am working for went to the US at 14 and came back at 30 - 3 years ago

When he left Beijing was on ring road #2. It's now outside #6 And expanding

It is also slightly weird being the only westerners in the white collar neighbourhood I am staying in

Whilst talk of a trade war with China is one thing. They tend to become wars of attrition and when there are 1.4 bn Chinese and they own US debt, it may mot end well for both parties but I suspect the Chinese can take the hit for longer internally.
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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As long as we don't have a real war with China.

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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The one way Trump could really cause a global recession would be to start a trade war with China. Even a lot of US manufactured products are dependent on cheap Chinese components.
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [FishyJoe] [ In reply to ]
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The mind boggles

So I need a phone. I say to one of my colleagues what where would you get one

She orders an oem Chinese manufactured smartphone thats not available outside China for next day delivery

All my stuff - in the broadest sense - is "made in chona" and if not directly, the components are......
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [FishyJoe] [ In reply to ]
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FishyJoe wrote:
The one way Trump could really cause a global recession would be to start a trade war with China. Even a lot of US manufactured products are dependent on cheap Chinese components.

They would win and we would have to sell out and become China #2 or their playground.
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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It's a race for China to escape from just being a cheap labor economy and becoming a service economy like the U.S.. That's the real war.

Because as manufacturing becomes more and more automated, the benefits of cheap labor will reduce. And already other countries are out-competing China on the low end of the labor market.

China has all sorts of long-term issues, and I'd much rather be the U.S. citizen that I am.
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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Trade war would suck for both countries. I read sometime ago that the US military did some simulations of trade wars between the US and China and found that China came out generally better than the USA in those scenarios. I have no idea what the models for that were, or how much credibility we should put into those findings.
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [SH] [ In reply to ]
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There are two ways of looking at wealth and competition.

There are those that would rather have $100 as long as their neighbor only has $50. Then they feel relatively richer.
And there are those that would rather have $200, even if their neighbor also had $200. They think in more absolute terms.

The general trend in the last 50 years has been toward free market, free trade. But in the last few hears the voices of the lower income classes have gotten stronger and have culminated with Trump.

I agree with your (or US Military strategic simulations) - at best the US and the whole world will be poorer, at worst case the US will end up at the $50 neighbor.
And the ironic thing is that this may hurt the lower class in the US the most as their basic consumer staples will go up in price, taking way from heir already meager disposable income.

Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's
Last edited by: Guffaw: Jan 18, 18 8:29
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [len] [ In reply to ]
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len wrote:
As long as we don't have a real war with China.

Neither would be good for the US.
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [Guffaw] [ In reply to ]
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A friend of mine 20 years ago described the US economy as a crew boat with 3 over paid coxswain on it:

It seems like nowadays we still have the 3 over paid coxswain.
But these coxswain are now 350 lb narcissists.
There are only 2 human rowers left on the boat.
The rowers are also 350 lbs, but they are opioid addicts and chronically depressed.
The boat does have a couple of misfunctioning Korean robots doing some rowing.
But all the people on the boat are too insane or too f#cked up on drugs to repair or direct the robots.

The amazing thing is that the boat hasn’t sunk yet!!
Perhaps the water is too full of industrial sludge to allow any sinking.

I can’t see how the US can remain competitive.
But perhaps all the other teams are equally f#cked up.
Or there is some intimidation going on.
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [Harbinger] [ In reply to ]
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I think very unlikely real war with China because China has big problems to deal with internally which will occupy their energies for a few generations. Not advocating trade war either as a prosperous China is better for everyone.

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [Velocibuddha] [ In reply to ]
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The United States is like a heavyweight champ who gets knocked down and keeps getting up. A relatively young population, lotsa ambitious immigrants, top tier educational institutions in stem (forget about humanities) and United States will be okay. China will struggle with elderly population for next generation.

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [len] [ In reply to ]
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As long as we don't have a real war with China. //

No kidding, we have lost every war we have been involved in since WWII. One would think with the largest and most sophisticated military in the world, and the piss ant tiny countries we went to war with, it would have been slam dunks. Apparently we have not gotten the memo yet that big armies do not win wars anymore, haven't for quite sometime.


So we cannot win wars with intrenched guerilla forces, maybe we could beat a military that has more soldiers than we have in population?? Russia has figured out modern warfare and is "Winning" at the moment. Throw bombshells into the political processes of countries and let them self implode. Long term it will be a great strategy when it is time to move into all those voids left by the infighting and squabbling.

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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [Velocibuddha] [ In reply to ]
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Velocibuddha wrote:
I can’t see how the US can remain competitive.

The same way the US became competitive with Japan. In the 1970 and 80's the Japanese were eating the USA's lunch. They were far more productive and/or cheaper. As they emerged from the post war rebuild into a powerful & rich developed nation, their hunger & willingness to work harder for less started dropping. Yes - there are cultural components - the Japanese baseline for productivity may be higher than Mexico's.

When China becomes rich and developed they will be as competitive as the US. And we will all start worrying about India or Indonesia.
Of course it will take china a lot longer to develop simply because the large mass of people will provide a cheap labour force for a decade or two.

Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I believe the US could easily with any military war it would choose to fight. They are not allowed to win wars because of political reasons, not military reasons. When politics enter the equation, the strength of the military force appears to becomes neutered. I do not believe that to be the fault of the military.
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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Shhhhh!

Be quiet. We don't want China to find out that they would crush us in a trade war, because they might be inclined to start one instead of patiently waiting for us to.
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [len] [ In reply to ]
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len wrote:
The United States is like a heavyweight champ who gets knocked down and keeps getting up. A relatively young population, lotsa ambitious immigrants, top tier educational institutions in stem (forget about humanities) and United States will be okay. China will struggle with elderly population for next generation.

You say that as if we won't have our struggles with the elderly population over the next generation? We are going to give our social security and healthcare system quite the stress test.

i am haivng a very hard time seeing how we could come out on top in a trade war with China. Trump loved to talk shit long before his candidacy and right up until the election, but thankfully sanity seems to have prevailed.
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [307trout] [ In reply to ]
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What wars are not political?
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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [TimeIsUp] [ In reply to ]
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Yes US will struggle with elderly population however China with one child one family policy will have more problems. I think the Chinese leadership sees that it has to have as many jobs as possible for its population so they won't start a trade war.

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

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Re: Going to war (trade) with China [len] [ In reply to ]
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as i learnt at dinner last night - that policy is over in many places, to the extent the government recognizes that they have a ageing population

however, now they want people to have more kids, people like the physician CEO I am working for who is 34 with one kid, dont want anymore due to cost and impact on their "lives" so they will potentially have a problem
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