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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [FindinFreestyle] [ In reply to ]
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I've read through this thread at different times over different days and tried to compare to my own swimming experience. The caveat here is that I am a pool swimmer since childhood. I'm interested in your assumptions about adult-onset swimmers (sounds like a disease to me) and what they do that is remarkably different than those who swam as kids. Are you basing this on increased fatigue, poor form, lack of feel for the water, all of the above, something else? I do have some issue with comparing an anaerobic sprint to an aerobic distance event. Are you assuming that all adult-onset swimmers process 25s aerobically? I currently train for the 70.3 distance so have no real data about my 25 yard sprint from push time. I'm 26:00 HIM distance swimmer. How does that back out to a 25?
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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [SLOgoing] [ In reply to ]
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SLOgoing wrote:
monty wrote:
I think you have a good start, but somewhere under 16 seconds it has to be adjusted or you will have everyone swimming sub 50 IM swims without wetsuits. You know how hard and rare that is, especially to the average AG swimmer who can easily push a 13+ 25yd.

This. I can pop off a 25SCY in 13-14 seconds but there isnÂ’t a chance in hell it would get me a 52 minute 2.4. Even at my most trained up state I couldnÂ’t pull this time off and I was swimming a 0:54.0 100SCY. The line needs to curve.

Ya, but you are hardly the "average AG swimmer" if you going 54.0 for 100 yd, espec given your being a girl. When you were going 54.0, what were your 500, 1000, and/or 1650 like time-wise??? A good D swimmer with a 54.0 100 would go around 10:45-10:50 for the 1000 when rested. Just guessing but I suspect that you were/are a better sprinter than a D swimmer. :)

I had thought of responding to monty earlier on this but the "average AG swimmer" can NOT do a 13.X for 25 yd; your average Masters swimmer sure but NOT your average tri swimmer. The average tri AG swimmer would be around 25 sec as a guesstimate, maybe even 28-29 sec. Lots of tri AGers can not swim much faster for one 25 than they go per 25 for 1000 or 1650 yd.


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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ericmulk wrote:
SLOgoing wrote:
monty wrote:
I think you have a good start, but somewhere under 16 seconds it has to be adjusted or you will have everyone swimming sub 50 IM swims without wetsuits. You know how hard and rare that is, especially to the average AG swimmer who can easily push a 13+ 25yd.

This. I can pop off a 25SCY in 13-14 seconds but there isnÂ’t a chance in hell it would get me a 52 minute 2.4. Even at my most trained up state I couldnÂ’t pull this time off and I was swimming a 0:54.0 100SCY. The line needs to curve.

Ya, but you are hardly the "average AG swimmer" if you going 54.0 for 100 yd, espec given your being a girl. When you were going 54.0, what were your 500, 1000, and/or 1650 like time-wise??? A good D swimmer with a 54.0 100 would go around 10:45-10:50 for the 1000 when rested. Just guessing but I suspect that you were/are a better sprinter than a D swimmer. :)

I had thought of responding to monty earlier on this but the "average AG swimmer" can NOT do a 13.X for 25 yd; your average Masters swimmer sure but NOT your average tri swimmer. The average tri AG swimmer would be around 25 sec as a guesstimate, maybe even 28-29 sec. Lots of tri AGers can not swim much faster for one 25 than they go per 25 for 1000 or 1650 yd.

So true. I know I could go sub-11 on 1,000 but never competed at the longer distances. Longest I ever competed was the 500 and that was a 5 minute hate session (my coach let me have my tirade and never did that to me again). And, for what itÂ’s worth, the sprints use a ton of heavy powerful kicking where a 2.4 open water (especially in neoprene) is often a leg dragger. If I really put an all out 25 sprint down with somebody on a stopwatch or timing pad (off the wall) IÂ’m sure I could squeak out a 12.x (today) but it just wouldnÂ’t translate to the 50-60 minute 2.4. But now a days I donÂ’t hardly bother to train for the swim because my training time will have more bang for the buck on the run. ThatÂ’s the thing about growing up a swimmer. The land is the enemy and moving across land is quite difficult.

Hillary Trout
San Luis Obispo, CA

Your trip is short. Make the most of it.
https://www.slogoing.net/
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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [SLOgoing] [ In reply to ]
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SLOgoing wrote:
ericmulk wrote:
SLOgoing wrote:
monty wrote:
I think you have a good start, but somewhere under 16 seconds it has to be adjusted or you will have everyone swimming sub 50 IM swims without wetsuits. You know how hard and rare that is, especially to the average AG swimmer who can easily push a 13+ 25yd.

This. I can pop off a 25SCY in 13-14 seconds but there isnÂ’t a chance in hell it would get me a 52 minute 2.4. Even at my most trained up state I couldnÂ’t pull this time off and I was swimming a 0:54.0 100SCY. The line needs to curve.


Ya, but you are hardly the "average AG swimmer" if you going 54.0 for 100 yd, espec given your being a girl. When you were going 54.0, what were your 500, 1000, and/or 1650 like time-wise??? A good D swimmer with a 54.0 100 would go around 10:45-10:50 for the 1000 when rested. Just guessing but I suspect that you were/are a better sprinter than a D swimmer. :)

I had thought of responding to monty earlier on this but the "average AG swimmer" can NOT do a 13.X for 25 yd; your average Masters swimmer sure but NOT your average tri swimmer. The average tri AG swimmer would be around 25 sec as a guesstimate, maybe even 28-29 sec. Lots of tri AGers can not swim much faster for one 25 than they go per 25 for 1000 or 1650 yd.


So true. I know I could go sub-11 on 1,000 but never competed at the longer distances. Longest I ever competed was the 500 and that was a 5 minute hate session (my coach let me have my tirade and never did that to me again). And, for what itÂ’s worth, the sprints use a ton of heavy powerful kicking where a 2.4 open water (especially in neoprene) is often a leg dragger. If I really put an all out 25 sprint down with somebody on a stopwatch or timing pad (off the wall) IÂ’m sure I could squeak out a 12.x (today) but it just wouldnÂ’t translate to the 50-60 minute 2.4. But now a days I donÂ’t hardly bother to train for the swim because my training time will have more bang for the buck on the run. ThatÂ’s the thing about growing up a swimmer. The land is the enemy and moving across land is quite difficult.

Certainly I can see how you'd want to concentrate on your run but, OTOH, if you swam 20K/wk, you could prob lead ALL AG women OOTW, not to mention 99.5% of the men, which would be pretty cool IMO, espec if the race were a mass start. Personally, I can run decently and should prob spend more time on the bike but I just hate not swimming. I still swim 7 days/wk and average around 25,000 yd/wk. I only race Oly dist and sprints so the swim is a little more important IF the course is semi-accurate.

Also, JOOC, do you remember your 500 time, and what was your best 200 yd free???


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [AndrewL] [ In reply to ]
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AndrewL wrote:
I've read through this thread at different times over different days and tried to compare to my own swimming experience. The caveat here is that I am a pool swimmer since childhood. I'm interested in your assumptions about adult-onset swimmers (sounds like a disease to me) and what they do that is remarkably different than those who swam as kids. Are you basing this on increased fatigue, poor form, lack of feel for the water, all of the above, something else? I do have some issue with comparing an anaerobic sprint to an aerobic distance event. Are you assuming that all adult-onset swimmers process 25s aerobically? I currently train for the 70.3 distance so have no real data about my 25 yard sprint from push time. I'm 26:00 HIM distance swimmer. How does that back out to a 25?

Assuming a 54:00 IM swim, that would put you at 54/4 = 13.5 sec. Can't speak for Dave on your various questions but one thing he has emphasized, and that I have observed over the years, is that many AG swimmers could swim an IM swim consid faster if they simply swam more. I think this is the main point of his deriving this equation is to show non-swimmers their IM swim potential based on their best 25 yd sprint in the pool.


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [FindinFreestyle] [ In reply to ]
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FindinFreestyle wrote:
ericMPro wrote:
FindinFreestyle wrote:
ericMPro wrote:
FindinFreestyle wrote:
ericMPro wrote:
FindinFreestyle wrote:
IM swims should be slower than your 2.4 mile open time of course.


no way.... too much fast water in an IM swim, especially the mass start ones.

Depending on the IM, my wetsuit and non-wetsuit times are the same because the non-wetsuit swim is a larger mass start one with lots of good swimmers to draft.


I get that, but you're awesome, and awesome athletes skew this formula that is directed towards entirely unawesome swimmers. You are a bit under a hour and likely highly skilled at drafting, right?


as an adult onset swimmer there's no way I'm awesome, but yes, 58:50 at Kona vs. a 58:30 at CdA same year 2013. Perhaps your +/- 4% is a two-factor fudge... some sprinter vs. endurance and some drafter vs. non-drafter.


I'm definitely going for simplicity, so there will be some inherent error. The real question is, what's YOUR 25 yard sprint?


Not sure, but I've hit 30" for 50scy so call it what, 14? 13? If so I'm underperforming as compared to your model.


Maybe a 14, probably not a 13. 14 x 4 is a 56 flat. If we apply the entire 4% range we get 58:15, which is pretty close to both of your posted times. If you can hit a 13, you'd be underperforming, but 13 from a push would almost always translate to much faster than a :30 / 50 yard.

When are you getting in the pool next?

so I did some 25scy sprints... 14.5 seconds from a push. I've not been swimming lately.

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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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ericmulk wrote:
AndrewL wrote:
I've read through this thread at different times over different days and tried to compare to my own swimming experience. The caveat here is that I am a pool swimmer since childhood. I'm interested in your assumptions about adult-onset swimmers (sounds like a disease to me) and what they do that is remarkably different than those who swam as kids. Are you basing this on increased fatigue, poor form, lack of feel for the water, all of the above, something else? I do have some issue with comparing an anaerobic sprint to an aerobic distance event. Are you assuming that all adult-onset swimmers process 25s aerobically? I currently train for the 70.3 distance so have no real data about my 25 yard sprint from push time. I'm 26:00 HIM distance swimmer. How does that back out to a 25?


Assuming a 54:00 IM swim, that would put you at 54/4 = 13.5 sec. Can't speak for Dave on your various questions but one thing he has emphasized, and that I have observed over the years, is that many AG swimmers could swim an IM swim consid faster if they simply swam more. I think this is the main point of his deriving this equation is to show non-swimmers their IM swim potential based on their best 25 yd sprint in the pool.


Yeah, that.

As to the difference between adult onset swimmers and those who swam as kids, it's similar to the differences we see when those same groups try to learn a foreign language or musical instrument. If you put English speaking young kids and their parents in a Spanish speaking house, in a few months the kids are going to be picking up the language, where in a few years the parents are still asking the kids how to say "pass the salt".

We see this mental plasticity delta in different age groups of swimmers pretty clearly when learning kick timing. In highly proficient swimmers the finish of each arm pull is nearly always timed with a kicking down-beat by the leg on the same side (i.e., left arm finish, left leg downbeat). We refer to this as "Finish-Kick" timing.

This timing is so ubiquitous in elite swimming, that it is regarded by Maglischo's book on swimming technique as "seldom a problem" (Maglischo, revised edition 2003). However, it is important to note that Maglischo's work was based overwhelmingly with national caliber collegiate swimmers and above -- in non-elite swimmers, the inability to produce this timing is as omnipresent as the ability is in their elite counterparts.

Kid's bodies figure out kick timing. Adult's bodies largely do not, and require a process by which awareness and control are developed.

Check out the video of the "backwards brain bicycle". I think this is very similar to the problems adults have in learning to swim.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFzDaBzBlL0
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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [FindinFreestyle] [ In reply to ]
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I'm right around 18" from the push, and I'm probably your target audience. My only comparison is 1650y at meet that I did at 90% in just under 25' (25yd pool). Calculator predicts 25.3'. It's not open water (walls), but no wetsuit, so close enough? 24' would be doable, but not 23' yet. Maybe this spring I'll revisit this before the meet.
Yeah, I don't really get why this works, but empirical fits are wonderfully useful things.

----------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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ericmulk wrote:
Certainly I can see how you'd want to concentrate on your run but, OTOH, if you swam 20K/wk, you could prob lead ALL AG women OOTW, not to mention 99.5% of the men, which would be pretty cool IMO, espec if the race were a mass start. Personally, I can run decently and should prob spend more time on the bike but I just hate not swimming. I still swim 7 days/wk and average around 25,000 yd/wk. I only race Oly dist and sprints so the swim is a little more important IF the course is semi-accurate.


Also, JOOC, do you remember your 500 time, and what was your best 200 yd free???


Yes, it would be cool to be first out of the water, and when I was in college this happened a couple of times (when I had absolutely no clue how to race a triathlon - I literally changed my clothes in the bathroom in both T1 and T2, because... outfits!). But, the cool factor evaporates amazingly fast when you get passed by almost everybody on the run.

These are my placings in my last two races of substances (where there was real competition, not a little local race). On almost no swim training (maybe 2-3x 30 minute swims per month) I'm always top 1/3rd and usually top 1/3 on the bike (for gender). Then, everybody runs past me. Yes, I could put in the 20k/wk and get to the top, but my run is pathetic and I know with the right focus I can at least get to the top 50% of the field.

For my 200 my PR was 1:56.87 and 500 was 5:13.18. Once upon a time. P.S. I hate the black line and now really only do OWS anymore.



Hillary Trout
San Luis Obispo, CA

Your trip is short. Make the most of it.
https://www.slogoing.net/
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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [FindinFreestyle] [ In reply to ]
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Thank you for the post. I've been racing triathlon for about 7 years but just started taking the swim portion seriously the last 12 months. By "serious" I mean going to the pool with a purpose swimming 10-15/week. My last 2.4m swim was in 2016 1:18 and a 1.2m swim of 36:50. After a year of consistent swimming and working on mechanics I recently swam 33:06 (2200 yards) HIM this past September which I was really excited about. Sunday I did a few dozen 25's all around :18 with a bunch of :17's in there. My fastest 25 yard from a push off is 15.9 and that was a few months back. I'm racing an IM in 2018 and would be elated with a 1:04. Any feedback would be appreciated.
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Re: IM Swim split predictor in minutes: 3.94X (+/-3%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [gary p] [ In reply to ]
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gary p wrote:
FindinFreestyle wrote:


An additional caveat I am considering is that the 25 sprint should be done with the 2.4 mile breathing pattern, as the extent to which the act of breathing disrupts propulsion can be fairly significant in adult onsets.


I would put another caveat that they have to use the same kick pattern.


So I did a few more long rest 25's at the end of my workout this afternoon. Using the same breathing pattern I'd use as my long distance pace (1 every cycle), but a strong 6 beat kick, I was coming in 14.low-14.mid. (FWIW, that's the pattern I would use for a 200 free race). When I backed the kick down to a 2-beat, like I'd actually use in a long distance race, I went 15.20, +/- .10. Just to verify that those times weren't overly fatigue-influenced, I did one no-breath, high-energy-kick, maximum-effort 25 at the end. Went :12.85, right in line with expectations.

So, with both the breathing and the kick pattern caveats, my 53:00 2.0 mile, and pair of 31:low 1.2 mile races (all fresh water, no wetsuit) suddenly fall right in line wih your formula. I just wouldn't call what I was doing tonight, other than the very last effort, "sprinting." ;)

"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"
Last edited by: gary p: Nov 27, 17 15:40
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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [SLOgoing] [ In reply to ]
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SLOgoing wrote:
ericmulk wrote:
Certainly I can see how you'd want to concentrate on your run but, OTOH, if you swam 20K/wk, you could prob lead ALL AG women OOTW, not to mention 99.5% of the men, which would be pretty cool IMO, espec if the race were a mass start. Personally, I can run decently and should prob spend more time on the bike but I just hate not swimming. I still swim 7 days/wk and average around 25,000 yd/wk. I only race Oly dist and sprints so the swim is a little more important IF the course is semi-accurate.


Also, JOOC, do you remember your 500 time, and what was your best 200 yd free???


Yes, it would be cool to be first out of the water, and when I was in college this happened a couple of times (when I had absolutely no clue how to race a triathlon - I literally changed my clothes in the bathroom in both T1 and T2, because... outfits!). But, the cool factor evaporates amazingly fast when you get passed by almost everybody on the run.

These are my placings in my last two races of substances (where there was real competition, not a little local race). On almost no swim training (maybe 2-3x 30 minute swims per month) I'm always top 1/3rd and usually top 1/3 on the bike (for gender). Then, everybody runs past me. Yes, I could put in the 20k/wk and get to the top, but my run is pathetic and I know with the right focus I can at least get to the top 50% of the field.

For my 200 my PR was 1:56.87 and 500 was 5:13.18. Once upon a time. P.S. I hate the black line and now really only do OWS anymore.


Well, I grasp your problem better now. Have you considered aqua-bike??? (semi-pink) You may just not be a runner, but that's not the end of the world. You are clearly a real swimmer though, and real swimmers are generally not good runners; if it were otherwise, triathlon would be utterly dominated by swimmers rather than only kinda, sorta dominated by swimmers as it is now. Take pride in your fish pedigree. :)


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: IM Swim split predictor in minutes: 3.94X (+/-3%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [DrTriKat] [ In reply to ]
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DrTriKat wrote:
I can do 19sec 25scy on wall push, your prediction of a 76min 3800m swim would be close (not counting currents, chop etc) based on my 103 minute 5200m cross lake swim (completed on ~5K/week for 2 months training).

People who swim 90minutes for 3800m despite being able to do a 19 sec SCY likely have poor technique and/or poor swim endurance but lots of upper body power to muscle through a short distance. I have no upper body strength, but good enough technique and good swim endurance.

I was going to ask if this is me...I can do ~18 second 25 yd sprint. My Lake Placid IM was 1:20 -- I am pretty off here. Now is that because I can muscle through 25 yds? Likely. My 50 yd time is about 43 seconds so clearly a sharp drop off.
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Re: 2.4 mile swim predictor in minutes: 4X (+/-4%) X=25 yard sprint time in secs. [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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ericmulk wrote:
Well, I grasp your problem better now. Have you considered aqua-bike??? (semi-pink) You may just not be a runner, but that's not the end of the world. You are clearly a real swimmer though, and real swimmers are generally not good runners; if it were otherwise, triathlon would be utterly dominated by swimmers rather than only kinda, sorta dominated by swimmers as it is now. Take pride in your fish pedigree. :)

True that! The struggle is real. Priority 1 for me is to lose 25 pounds (see Race Weight Challenge threads). Those excess pounds are great for OWS, not so great for hauling my fat ass up a hill or running. From there, some speed work on the land. I'm young. I have some time ahead of me. And I used to be race weight, so I just have to get back there.

Thanks for the fishie kudos. Swimming is the easy part for me. Staring at the black line for yet another lifetime.... not so much. :-P

Hillary Trout
San Luis Obispo, CA

Your trip is short. Make the most of it.
https://www.slogoing.net/
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