I’d like to see her swimming and biking in her USA kit.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

For real though, I’m just fascinated to see what she’s up to. Whatever works.

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Honestly, I hope she gets destroyed in distance running so she goes back to the sport she is actually world class in...

Eh I think the problem is she understands what it takes to being world class in triathlon and STAYING world class in triathlon. It *seems* she doesn't want that training/travel lifestyle. What she's done is actually cash in on her gold medal to pretty much fund training for another olympic cycle in a sport that is a high probability she doesnt even make the marathon team.


It would shock me if she came back to itu.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I’d like to hear about a potential race schedule. Marathons beat up your body, so she obviously won’t race the full distance often, will she race a lot of 10k’s or 5k’s? Or just keep the schedule light, as far as racing goes, in order to stay close to home and family to keep the mind & emotions strong. I’d say the latter will have the best results...

I’d be curious to hear how her training has progressed and what a typical run week looks like now compared to a few months ago.

---

https://twitter.com/mungub

What is her 2018 race schedule
What is her goal time this year
Does she still bike and swim
What's her backup plan if the marathon thing doesn't work out

Since, the switch to marathon, I would like to know who her coach is and who are her new training partners are. Thanks!

When is the last time she was in a pool / on a bike? Does she miss either (assuming she isn’t doing them)...

A saw her on Instagram last week on a bike :)

I would really be interested in a deeper question of how is she feeling? She just had a baby; she left ITU which really made her her money; she relocated to Portland; and she is in a "new" sport, trying to go up against the likes of someone like Hasay. I feel like she has to have those "oh shit" moments and maybe get those feelings that she can't cut it.

Babies take a toll, emotionally and hormonally, and you are on their schedule. Compared to some others, does she feel this puts her at a slight disadvantage in terms of fatigue and ability to put in proper training time. I'm not implying that babies are negative, as I have two :)

---

Use this link to save $5 off your USAT membership renewal:
https://membership.usatriathlon.org/...A2-BAD7-6137B629D9B7

I asked her that on Instagram. She actually replied and said she really just misses competing!

---

Use this link to save $5 off your USAT membership renewal:
https://membership.usatriathlon.org/...A2-BAD7-6137B629D9B7

I saw on Twitter that she recently had a 100 mile week - what is the breakdown in terms of workouts that comprise her week. Mostly easy miles with two or so harder workouts, plus a longer run? How's the body handling the higher mileage?

A lot of people can pretty easily run 50-60 miles a week without any sort of injuries (I assume this is the kind of mileage she was doing while racing ITU), but jumping to 100+ is much more of a demand on the body.

---

Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

Does she fuel differently now that she is a runner rather than a triathlete?

A buddy saw her and Shalane running together yesterday.

https://www.facebook.com/GwenJorgensenTriathlete/videos/1609653592417639/




Here is your answer! :) More to come!

https://www.facebook.com/...os/1609653592417639/

Good stuff! Thanks for the answer and for putting all of the videos out. Big fan here.

---

https://twitter.com/mungub

These videos are amazing, thank you very much!

a Runner's World article on Shalane mentions that Gwen is training with her, so possibly Jerry Schumaker as coach ?

Wasn't her husband, Pat, her coach when she did triathlon? Or maybe I heard this wrong. . . Either way I was curious if he was doing it until she became attached. He always seems to have her food on lock.

---

Use this link to save $5 off your USAT membership renewal:
https://membership.usatriathlon.org/...A2-BAD7-6137B629D9B7

Ha no build up to Rio coach was Jamie turner out of Wollongong. Pat quit his cycling career to be her full time “assistant”.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

No clue!
I assumed all the quick ones were under Salazar.

Who does she see winning Olympic medals in Tokyo, men and womens?

Does she have any desire whatsoever to do Kona one day?

No. She's adamant and outspoken that long course has no appeal whatsoever for her.

---

I wrote this, you should read it:
https://www.slowtwitch.com/...n_Swimming_6700.html

https://www.youtube.com/...2my9HbHoGoWapSYtKx0Y


New video...more "raw" and almost likely the most "real" video she's ever put out, titled "just the truth".....

13 months from last competition, something like 6 months post surgery, some real dialogue between her and Pat and life dealing with major injury.


I completely get why she moved to marathon, and any chance of her ever coming back is a pipe dream. But man oh man, I kinda feel like we are watching her just play out the running string until she finally quits on her own terms. I'm guessing she's still trying for trials?

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Curious what her training is like now and how many miles she’s able to run right now. Assuming there’s no further setbacks, we’ll see her at trials regardless of the shape she’s in (at least that’s my guess). I guess the biggest question I have, what’s the plan after February 29th? Side bar question, how much longer is left on her contract with Nike?

---

blog

Well I heard through the grapevine that there’s an extremely high likelihood we’ll see her at track trials for the 5k and or 10k when the marathon doesn’t go well.

---

I wrote this, you should read it:
https://www.slowtwitch.com/...n_Swimming_6700.html

I mean that makes sense. Marathon trials is 4 months before US trials on the track, so just likely find an race she can qualify in if she's not qualified already (haven't look for track trials what standard is).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I had a hard time watching that whole 18 min video, as it was rather painful. I'm kind of surprised that she and her hub Pat would want to be so extremely open about all of their problems over the past 13 months. Not sure I would do a video like that.

---

"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

I found it oddly interesting that they noted a few times she didn't want her sport to define her, yet it seemed like her whole demeanor and attitude are completely affected by how she was handling her athletic career and specifically this injury. I guess a bit more jadedness with her injury comeback and timeline it seemed. I guess this was more as the title suggested "real life" and not the fluff that a lot of people put out there on social media every day.

I had the same feeling you did, almost uncomfortable watching it. It was almost like preview of what life will be like post GJ's athletic career, w/ Pat starting his own career and focused less on being 100% all in on GJ's career. Of course I think with triathlon his background helped her tremendously, juggling 3 sports, and his own expertise was valued w/ cycling; with the running singular focused it's more coach/athlete/squad centric and Pat likely has a much lesser role.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Good. Like many, I wonder if those are her best distances.

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Really it almost seemed like they are having "marital difficulties" but I can't understand why they would want to broadcast that to the world???

---

"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

That dude comes across a little strange ...

I think you guys are reading way too much into it. Seemed like a real couple being honest. Regular marriage stuff.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

This. Just a married couple talking about married life and issues that arise.

---

Let food be thy medicine...

Gwen and Pat are doing better than ever. Gwen is about 100X happier in her life now than when I started working with her just over a year ago. I think they wanted to share this video with the public because they wanted to be an encouragement to others that marriage / work / and life you go through trials. They wanted to be an open door about it and let people know stay strong during those times we all go through them.

The marriage stuff wasn't what I keyed on interestingly enough. It was the statements about "sport not defining her", that I thought was interesting they would say that. Of course that's just a viewpoint from 30,000' and from what they put out there to the world, etc. and the pathway/sacrifices they both did in the last 5+ years.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

She meant that from HER view point of herself. Yes, we all define and know Gwen because of Sports so it defines her to us but to herself, she does not let sports define who she is. She is great because she is a great thinker, a chance taker, committed to her goals, focused, a great mom, a great wife, bla bla bla, all the things that make successful people successful. Gwen could apply those principles to any career and become very successful. People like that can do anything they put their minds too. That is what defines her, not sports. Some people get carried away in their Sport then get injured and depressed because they let it define their lives. Gwen knows there is more to life then sports. It's just the path she chose to apply her great qualities that define her as a person.

---

http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

 
Great video, thanks

Very interesting, on the "motivation", "what is important in my life", "how do we deal as a couple" sides of things.

With her injuries, lack of racing, potential overthinking around this, it could have been much worse. To me (as a psychanalyst used to couple therapy) they look solid and stable enough :-)

On the sport side : US Marathon qualify is probably a long shot, due to lack of races, time references...
If it doesn't work in Atlanta, indeed, track qualif is a possibility.

Jorgensen's usual videos are a bit too focused on her sponsors and her detailed professional approach to keep my interest, so, for me, this video was a welcome change. It made me want to root for her more in the coming months.

Gwen's officially focusing on track:

https://olympics.nbcsports.com/...rathon-track-trials/

---

I wrote this, you should read it:
https://www.slowtwitch.com/...n_Swimming_6700.html

Sounds like the smart move- at least on the surface. Having no insight on the track running world, anyone think she has a shot at a slot in the track 5/10k?

makes sense, this was probaly the progression she needed before jumping to the marathon to begin with straight from her itu volume. Smart pathway change will result in much better ability to get the most out of herself with her speed and also endurance training much safer, than this pigeon holed pathway she originally was going with the marathon goal so quickly.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

This also gives her until June to train.

Seems like a smart move all around.

---

blog

So her high profile, nationally accredited coach, has finally come to the conclusion that Dan and I(and a few others here as I recall) proffered the very first days after she made the switch to running only, and did that very first track 5k.

And she says her coach is always spot on when guessing her race times, ok. He said she would run between 15 flat and 15;30, and she went 15;15. But excuse me, but I think every one here with an ounce of knowledge, would have guessed that spot on 30 second differential, probably leaning more on the slower time too.

I wish Gwen all the luck in the world in this endeavor, glad she has accepted the reality of her situation. It was not your choice either, or your coaches, it was reality crushing down on an unrealistic dream. Now going forward, I still think she could be a great marathoner, but suspect that maybe some intermediate success at the 5k and 10k might even derail that bump up. Just have to wait and see what happens now, still interested..

I don’t think it’s even about having a shot. I think this was the smartest pathway to actually producing the best GJ possible. This imo is going to taper expectations and create a better training platform for her. The marathon was simply breaking her, most especially in the rather weird timeframe she (or her sponsors) set herself for.


In a way this almost lets her get back to just being an athlete and seeing what happens. Not forcing anything, not creating stupid unrealistic goals that’s partly sponsor driven which she’s cornered the market on how to be the perfect sponsored IG athlete imo.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

She needs to run 31:25 to get the standard. That will be a big, uphill challenge.

I've long been in the camp that she had no chance to win the Olympic Marathon gold medal and probably could not even make the team. That has now come to pass. I think this is a smart move on her part but agree with you that the odds in the 10K, while much better than the marathon, are still a long shot. And I would guess she needs to make the team to keep her contract with Nike. So there's going to be some real pressure on her. Either way, I still do not see her in the Olympic marathon in 2024.

I actually think there is less pressure now. This is actually the correct pathway to “long term” success in whatever pathway she actually wants to pursue. It was obvious marathon training was destroying her. But that’s the demands of competition and the requirements necessary to “win 2020 Olympic marathon” that she was so pushing towards.

I’m sure there’s financial incentives but my guess is that nike and her coach are all in on her long term. She’s by all accounts a good “squad mate” in terms of supporting everyone else and not being an issue. So there’s not a lot to lose from Nike or her coach for supporting her (even if she loses some money from Nike or whatever she’s a smart and well sponsored athlete). Even if she’s only an good practice partner for her other teammates that’s value to keep her around.

So I think now the pressure is completely off and now it’s just GJ and athletics....not this fake bullshit “goal”.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

You may be right. My thinking is that Nike can be ruthless at cutting athletes who are no longer performing at a high level. Her Olympic Gold value is pretty much depreciated at this point, and the Olympic 10K holds much lower prestige than the marathon. If she doesn't make the team, I can't imagine they would continue to pay her going rate just because she's a good squad mate and training partner. And while this gives her more time to ramp for an eventual olympic marathon attempt, I simply don't think she has the right body type for it. But she is better suited for the track and that alone should ease the pressure (as does buying some more time). We'll see what happens after June.

If you want to do anything long term in track too, you need to be running in Europe a good portion of the year. That's not the case in the marathon.

It's the right move, but certainly has trade offs.

Ten years from now, will Jorgensen regret that she announced the 2020 marathon gold goal in 2017 or will it end up having been an announcement that earned her more $ than it cost her?

She needs to run 31:25 to get the standard. That will be a big, uphill challenge. //

Not sure what you think this, just have to go back to her very first 5k track race. Undertrained, under raced, with little experience, she won a tactical race in the final lap in 15;15. By any metric used to extrapolate, that is a 31;30 or so 10k. And figuring Gwen to be better as the distance goes up from 5k to probably 1/2 marathon, she was right there already. He job now is to just get back to that form she had in the very beginning, and figure out what worked back then..

No not in the least. That was the necessary step she needed to take to continue her athletic career. She wasn’t going to go down itu anymore so that was the sponsored kick to keep on the sponsor train. And for her it’s a very lucrative sponsorship, no doubt.

So to Huff, while yes Nike can be ruthless, my point is there’s a bunch of Nike supported athletes that won’t make the olympics. And I certainly don’t think she’s Nike “queen bee” by any means. So do I think her nike sponsorship is on the line. Hell no.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

She has Track PRs of 15:15 at the 5k and 31:55 for the 10k, both accomplished in 2018. Her 5k track time would have been the 10th fastest time for women
in 2019 while the 10k would have been 5th fastest.

U.S 5k Olympic standard - 15:10

U.S 10k Olympic standard - 31:25

In the past the top 3 at U.S Olympic Trials who have met the standard times would have been sent to the games. Qualifying this year is more complicated as the standards were dropped back in March of this year. According to the IAAF there will be allotment of slots to athletes based on running these qualifying times. Then the remaining slots needed to fill each events quota will be given based on an individual athletes World Ranking.

If we were to take the times in 2019 for the women's 5k and 10k, six athletes would have met the standard in the 5k but only two would have ran fast enough to meet the standard for the 10k. That's where the World Ranking comes into play.

My opinion is that even though the women's 5k is stacked, Gwen might have a slightly better shot at that. She'll have 6 months to build up her speed and she's only 5 sec. off rather than 30 in the 10k for that standard. Although, I expect that her chances for these events will level out if she stays healthy and is able to have solid blocks of training.

https://www.flipsnack.com/...lists/full-view.html

https://www.outsideonline.com/...ew-standards-running

---

Dominic Pollizzi

I'm guessing it's likely a correct assessment to say it's a big uphill challenge based on where she's currently at fitness/injury wise + experience. What she did previously is decently good gauge, but your also dealing with a compressed schedule for an athlete coming off a major injury. That's the whole issue. Which I think is pretty much the whole reason why she's coming to this pathway so she can:

a- likely run less mileage and stay more healthy (she's used to higher intensity, lesser volume with her itu career, etc)
b- race more often and learn more / gain experience


Her 15:15 5k before her 10k in 2018, she then ran 31:55 10k (current PR) a few months later.

Summer of 2018 at the USATF 10k track champs she ran 32:24 (7th place)



USA Track qualification standards:
5k- 15:20
10k- 32:25

Olympic qualification criteria standards:
5k- 15:10
10k- 31:25

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I feel guilty for saying this but I hope she comes to Ironman. She’s such an amazing personality, I’d love to see her take a crack at Kona.

You sound like a know-it-all with this.

It's easy to lob criticism in hindsight, but shortly before she started the marathon quest and not long after her Olympic Gold she ran 53:10 and placed 3rd in American 10 mile championships, just a few seconds behind Jordan Hasay. Easy now to say it's obvious that GJ would flare out and be a marathon failure while Hasay would rapidly become the 2nd fastest American marathoner ever with the fastest ever debut by 3+ minutes. Didn't seem like such a "unrealistic dream" at the time though.

It's easy to lob criticism in hindsight, //

It's not hindsight, its what I said way back when. And I thought then as I do now, that she could be a very good marathon runner. Predicting a gold medal however was a bit much, don't you think, now or back then too? My feeling way back when she ran her very first 5k, was that she should have taken the shorter distance route and stuck with it. I was hopeful for a good marathon time, but something or someone screwed her up on that track. The times she ran for the marathons were the absolute worst I would have expected of her, felt she could have run those or better times during her triathlon training. Really dont know what went wrong there, but something certainly did. I'm with you though, think she could run any distance successfully with the right team working with her.


So not really criticism of her, just my observations, before all of this came to pass. Maybe she needs her Tri coach back, it just doesnt feel like whoever is guiding her, understands her as an athlete.

Maybe she needs her Tri coach back, it just doesnt feel like whoever is guiding her, understands her as an athlete.

------

I'd turn it around and maybe suggest she didn't understand the marathon game with her expectations/timeline. That probaly has hella lot more to do with it than what the coach was or wasnt doing for her.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

You can turn it however you want, but those marathon times were just bad, and not a reflection of the athlete and racer she was, at that time..I get all your other stuff, rushed, over ambitious, a dreamer. But at the very worst, she should have run a 2;30 low, and that would have been off of triathlon fitness. It all just didnt add up, 15;15 5k/ high 31 10k, and then those horrible marathon times. But as you say, still a long ways off the brass ring, but that should have been the minimum for her in the attempt..

Of course the goal was too lofty, I'm just pointing out that on the way to reaching for those heights, it was apparent that something had gone awry.

and not a reflection of the athlete and racer she was, at that time

-----

Exactly and that was my point that you didn't get. You don't go from low volume, high intensity ITU style training to marathon training in less than a 2 year window and not have ups and downs. Add in the fact that in marathon running you dont get a 2nd chance. You gotta wait 4--6 months to recover and build back up and then give it another go. She was going to have less than a handful of chances at "nailing" the marathon before the Olympics??

So the reason why I think she's changing now doesn't have anything to do with the marathon. It's the timeline of everything in that marathon trials or what mid Jan (Feb 29th marathon trials vs track trials in June 19 for 10km...5km looks to have heats starting on June 25)? And she's coming off a major injury that likely wont have her anywhere close to being ready. So change the chatter and see if she can make the team in 7 months from now instead of 2. Cus post olympics it really doesn't matter too much what pathway she choses, she then has time to pursue it.


(and keep in mind that injury can occur in low volume runners....it's a common long term over use type of injury that occurs with post D1 professional runners/triathletes.....Rupp had the injury and surgery just prior to GJ having the issue....my itu girl (her bf who runs professionally at the 1500/5k had the injury) got the injury...sorta just happens to many of them with running for so long (she simply retired as she wanted no part in the recovery process nor wasn't really good enough to actually have a comeback so simply "retired" and got a job with her degree).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Nike can be, but she runs for Jerry/BTC, Jerry owns the decisions on who stays and who goes.

---

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

she is not made for the marathon yet... 10k or 5k in track, sounds rational. I think she is better suited for the 10k, but who knows...
I think she´s moved a bit late. She´s got half a year to build top fitness and gain speed, and, focus in being in the olympics....because there is no chance for even a top 5 in neither of those events. Kenya, Ethiopia, Hassan, etc....no way
Being in Tokyo would be a huge accomplishment for her...no further dreams.... given the competition there is in Team USA.
I really like her, and I hope she can do it....
what´s the pick procedure for team usa? I have checking some PBs and she would need like a 31 flat for the 10k and 15 flat for the 5k...

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Without seeing her actual contract, I am only speculating, as I suspect you are. But what I do know is this:

1) Most running contracts at Nike are tied to the Olympics, and there will be wholesale turnover after the Olympic Trials for those that don't make the team.
2) Gwen has been a losing proposition for Nike. Her 15 minutes of fame was three years ago and she has had no performances in that time to justify her stipend. It's all been a bet hoping for a pay-off that still appears to be in the distant future. If she doesn't make the team in the 10K, it will be very difficult to make a business case that justifies keeping her.
3) As I insinuated above regarding "her going rate"; if she doesn't make the team and Nike keeps her, it doesn't mean that she will be getting the same stipend. They could very well slash it; and unless she has a better offer, or wants to go back to the office, she would take it.

This used to be a simple question. Before Tokyo, I would have answered that it would have been a straight-up top 3 performance at the U.S. Olympics Track and Field Meet assuming that all runners met the Olympic A standard. There is no selection committee and if our best athlete has a bad day, then tough luck. So you get one shot at.

The new Olympic standards and procedures are much stricter since the IOC is reducing the size of the Olympic T&F competition to make more room in the Olympic village for sports more attractive to younger viewers (e.g., skateboarding and surfing) --- it's all about the money!!!

The new standards means that even large countries no longer have a guarantee of top 3. Women have to meet the new Olympic standard of 31:25 for the 10,000 but even if Gwen comes in top 3 in the trials, and beats the standard, that still doesn't guarantee her selection because the Olympic 10,000 is now limited to 27 men and 27 women. Theoretically, they won't reach 27 under the new standard and will offer the remaining spots to those with world rankings (which Gwen does not have). The qualifying period to meet the Olympic standard is Jun 29, 2020, the day after the US T&F trials ends. So if she makes the top 3 but misses the cut-off time, there is no real opportunity to regroup and try again.

If you don't know her contract it's kinda hard to take your #2 serious. Because this isn't 1988 where it's all about performing and getting into running magazines or on the pages of sports illustrated because your winning. The more accurate statement is that she's not had performances, that's it. Because your speculating seems to be only tied to performances, and in this day and age I'd argue that there's more to GJ when it comes to "business" (and she's a very very smart and likely shrewd business woman).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Good to make that disclaimer.

Something I wonder, if Gwen had continued with Triathlon and gone double Gold in Tokyo (in other words, won the MTR Gold too, bringing her total Golds to 3) could she have made 7 figures for a few years, joined the speakers bureau and created enough cache to be a permanently sponsored athlete like other Olympic Champions?

She was totally fried on triathlon in 2016. Taking two years off from everything, coming back in the summer of 2018 refreshed may have been the better financial decision.

this is the first rational thought I've read on this forum about Gwen Jorgensen since Rio 2016. Chapeau

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Think she can still swim front pack and not get dropped on the bike? It's never too late to pull a Carol Montgomery.

I don't see what is so hard to understand that Nike is looking for publicity value in its sponsorship, and that is directly tied to performance. That's why their running contracts are typically linked to the Olympics. I completely agree with you that Gwen is smart and likely a shrewd business woman, but I'm alluding to Nike's value proposition not hers. Nike isn't in the habit of sponsoring athletes out of charity. Can you honestly say they've gotten bang for their buck from what she has run, and from all the time that she's been out for injury?

It's clear you don't know her contract, and it's even more clear you only see value from one pathway- performance. So why don't you stick to that and not make bold statements when you don't know the value she brings from the social media side. ETA: Stick to the facts that you know, not assumptions, cus that one based on what you keep talking about shows you don't comprehend the value she can bring to Nike publicly outside of races. And that is of value since seemingly about 2015-2017 when "social media influencers" really became a big thing. And not to say that's all she has, but to say she has the "total package" likely when she went into negotiations with Nike. Not sure how it's that hard to understand that?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I don't know. The rational thing, to continue the theme, would have been to ask that question in 2017, not now. I'm rooting for her though! And I hope she still does marathon trials...

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

So race 2017 under ITU flag and then move to GB or France to be the odds on favorite to win double gold?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

What is your question

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Just what I asked, what federation was she going to race for?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

who?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

No I don't know her contract, do you? And you are talking about what she brought to the table when they first negotiated a contract while I'm talking about if, when and why they may or may not renew it. Has she performed - no? Has she brought value as a social media influencer - I wouldn't think so as even Ashley Horner has almost 4 times as many instagram followers. Maybe there's some other value that would have Nike keep her if she is unable to make the olympic team. And whether you know or not, just give me your logical guess without so much animosity.

I didn’t make comments to suggest I do know her contract, you did lol. You are the one that said she has been a losing proposition for Nike. I simply said from the start to you, to make a more accurate statement is she hasn’t performed, but that doesn’t mean it’s a losing proposition based on other factors. That was my logical conclusion that you keep coming back with some ”performance” only metric.

Your comparing her to Ashley Horner? You should compare her to her own squad mates, that’s a more likely logical assessment.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Sarah true was Gwen's teammate and almost similar performance. So likely Gwen would have blown up at 140.6 racing too

I thought I saw her on You Tube hanging out with a bunch of ultra runners at Glacier National Park on a weekend outing set up by Jaybird hanging out with Rich Roll, Timothy Olsen and others.. what's that about? Getting into the ultra running scene? Maybe she already is and I just don't know. Or maybe I should listen to the Rich Roll podcast.

Yes, that is my opinion. I reached out to someone who doesn't know her specific contract but who is very familiar with Nike contracts and Nike sponsored olympians. The majority of running contracts are annual and run from January through December. In the case of Gwen who negotiated after her olympic Gold, it is highly probable that she was given a multi-year contract that runs through end of year 2020. Contracts typically include bonuses for making the olympic team and more for medaling, but if Nike is not getting a return on their investment then they will cut the athlete. So the prediction from someone close to the company is this: if she doesn't make the team she's gone at the end of her contract, most likely the end of 2020 (unless perhaps she fails to make the team but pops a great marathon next fall). If she makes the team even if she doesn't medal, then they are likely to keep her, but upon contract renewal would probably convert to an annual basis with renewals contingent on progress towards the marathon. That is still speculation, but I would consider it a highly informed opinion.

In the final analysis, Nike is all about the bottom line. For most of their contracts, that means performance. They will pay for social media influence but I don't see any evidence that she brings much to the table on that front. Her current contract was based on her Gold medal and the hope that she could produce as a runner. To that effect, sticking with the marathon for 2020 would have been a certain path to no contract renewal. She wisely switched targets and at least now has a chance to continue with Nike. It's up to her, but my opinion remains that she must perform or they will dump her at the end of whatever contract she has.

Of course there are differing opinions of what the future will bring for Gwen. But if athletic performance is not at the top of the list, I don't think her future will be with Nike.

you have absolutely no basis to be making that statement and it directly contradicts your previous sentence.

Just so I'm understanding you. You say you don't see any evidence of her having social media appeal or influence. Your basis this opinion on what exactly?

I ask because that is the opposite of what I've heard from companies that have directly approached her with large sponsorship packages. That she has the athletic performance background + social media presence that most defintely gets any company eyeballs.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

No it does not. Most does not mean all. Nike is willing to give high profile athletes a longer contract. They are higher risk to the company but with the potential for higher return on that investment. She was in her strongest bargaining position immediately after the Rio olympics, so it is fair to surmise that she received a multi year contract rather than an annual one that most track athletes get.

you wrote "highly probable" but what you really should have written is "I am guessing and have no idea." it is not fair to surmise that she signed a multi-year Nike contract. maybe she did, maybe she didn't, but you have absolutely no idea what she signed and even admit that most Nike contracts are annual ones.

she was a rounding error for Nike in 2017 and still is just a rounding error. you are delusional if you think anyone with any clout at Nike even thinks about her when their focus is on their Lebron, Durant and Greek Freak contacts, which generate Billions (that's with a B) of dollars of revenue.

There are two parts to this. The first is whether she had an effective media presence for triathlon (I don't know), who benefited from it at the time and whether Nike believed it could be transferred to them at the time they negotiated her current contract. And going back three years, which was more important in evaluating potential return at that time -- her gold medal or her triathlon social media? I hope we can agree that it was probably the gold medal.

The second part is whether her CURRENT social media presence is noticeably driving sales and making up for her lack of performance. Here I have no objective evidence other than her paltry numbers. There is also anecdotal evidence that her youtube videos can be offputting (see Lets Run). Perhaps you have some evidence that she is producing sales value for Nike, but I haven't seen any. In the end I don't believe her social media will be enough for Nike to keep her if she doesn't make the olympics. There is nothing outrageous about that prediction. And a competitor like Gwen certainly wants to make the team. Only time will tell how this will play out.

"just the facts" on the social media aspect of all of this for women's Nike BTC members:

Flanagan (who's now retired and turned into a coach): 356k IG followers, 128k Twitter followers
Amy Cragg: 37k IG followers, 24k twitter followers (BTC member for 4+ years and made 2016 Olympic team)
Kate Grace: 45k IG followers, 13k twitter followers (BTC member for 2+ years)
Marielle Hall: 7k IG followers, (cant find her on twitter after quick search) (BTC member for 2+ years)
shelby houlihan: 43k IG followers, 11k twitter followers (BTC member for 4+ years and made 2016 Olympic team)
Colleen Quigley: 168k IG followers, 15k twitter followers (BTC member for 4+ years and made 2016 Olympic team)
Emily Infeld: 65k IG followers, 17k twitter followers (BTC member for 6+ years and made 2016 Olympic team)
Courtney Frerichs: 43k IG followers, 11k twitter followers (unsure of when she started w/ BTC)
Vanessa Fraser: 13k IG followers, 418 twitter followers (BTC member for 1+ year immediately out of NCAA)
Karissa Schweizer: 33k IG followers, 7k twitter followers (BTC member for 1+ year immediately out of NCAA)


GJ: 183k IG followers, 45k twitter followers . (2nd biggest social media footprint on the team behind only Flanagan)


Take those numbers and come up to whatever conclusion you want to make. I have no evidence (I dont work for Nike, nor am I apart of her "team") other than the "paltry" numbers that make up her social media presence to suggest that she has a social media influence within the running/endurance community. I also never said that her social media presence alone will have her stay. I've simply suggested she's still going to be on team BTC post Tokyo whether she's on the Olympic team or not. That's my "outrageous" prediction to counter your non outrageous prediction and what your "insider" has suggested. ***With the caveat that she doesn't get another injury......if that happens, yes I think she's fired/let go/contract not renewed/retires, but if she's "developing" and healthy and racing, I think she is on the squad Jan 1 2021 regardless of making Tokyo team or not. ***

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Considering how many shitty messes Nike as a company has on their hands. Keeping an All American, Wholesome, Family Oriented Gold Medalist on the roster would be my first priority. In fact, she gets a raise.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

you are comparing one niche sport to another niche sport, both of which are rounding errors to nike and don't drive any sales. compare these numbers to, say, the ny knicks bench tonight:

smith jr: 882K IG
knox: 318K IG
portis: 130K IG
trier: 235K IG
payton: 131K IG
dotson: 46K IG
ellington: 72K IG
robinson: 127K IG

these are the scrubs on one of the worst nba teams and their followers dwarf BTC's (rj barrett, who has been in the nba on the knicks for a month, has 1.4 MILLION IG followers). nike isn't selling any product because of the spikes or training shoes anyone on BTC wears and nobody (relatively) is paying attention to any of them anyway. enjoy following triathlon and track for what they are but don't have any delusions that they are popular outside of a very niche following, which includes all of us on slowtwitch.

Hello

I appreciate her, and expect she will be able to come back as a serious marathon competitor after Tokyo (probably too short, but maybe for NYC Marathon in 2020 ?)

I'm not a competent runner / coach, but I doubt she will do the marathon trials in Feb 2020. She is/was quite late in her marathon schedule for Feb (reason to go for Track selections), so either :
- she chase both, for sure miss the marathon selection, and lower her chances for the Track selection
- she concentrate on track selection, and what is the point to do the marathons trials in Feb ?

I agree. As a coach or athlete there is no upside to doing marathon trials, but as a running and also GJ fan who is going to Atlanta, I hope she does the marathon!

E

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

You can take that to the bank. She's not even on the published roster for Atlanta.

Considering how many shitty messes Nike as a company has on their hands. Keeping an All American, Wholesome, Family Oriented Gold Medalist on the roster would be my first priority. In fact, she gets a raise. //

Finally, someone who gets what the dynamic is over there, the current reality so to speak. And it is not just one incident, there have been many over the past couple years concerning women at Nike, they certainly will be cognicant of that fact when evaluating women contracts in the near future. There are lots of women runners in the basket that Gwen resides, but only she is a past gold medal winner, with a potential that is probably a bit more unknown than the journeymen runners on the program.


I dont know what she gets, probably only a few people actually know the exact number, but have to imagine in the low 6 figures. I would also think with her history, she would be high on the list not to get cut, at least for awhile longer than the others in her basket. But probably most women are safe for the time being, have to be doing really bad to get cut in this enviourmet where they are trying to portray the opposite in regards to women and sports..

Yes, my conclusion is that those numbers are so pitifully low that they will all live or die based on their performance. When Nike wants social media influence they do it big. Aka hiring Christiano Ronaldo whose combined social media followers total 240 MILLION or by their hiring of Colin Kaepernich and their ad campaign: “Believe in something. Even if it means sacrificing everything.”


We do have different predictions. Mine basically assumes that Nike will not go for the long run if she doesn't produce this year. Yours is that if she is still progressing then they are willing to go the distance (so to speak). That's fair. If she makes the olympics, we'll never know what Nike would do otherwise. Let's hope for that.

Your post and the Ronaldo bit should center people and remind them about exactly how much money power and influence we're talking about here. OTOH, I would disagree that it's comparable to Gwen re: number of followers or a pass/fail proposition on the track. I would argue that as long as Gwen shows value relative to her contract, she will remain. There are more ways to influence these days other than performance. Gwen and her team strike me as the types of people that know exactly how much value they're providing and probably know how that scales on a $$/influence basis to other athletes' contracts.

If the ROI is good with Gwen, they would keep her no? It's win/win really... all they do is give her money and shoes and she does all the work.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

I wonder if she had stuck with tri if financially better off. She was dominating and could have been picking up good prize money and sponsor $$ . her love must be running.

Could she have been better off financially, maybe. Guess her priority wasn't more money. Good for her to chase a dream and challenge herself in a new way. She probably doesn't regret it either.

For sure no regrets, she must have a huge passion for running.

I think there were a few key factors that helped make her decision to move on from tri. I think the gold medal gave her the “clout” to get paid fairly well for this Olympic round in running. I think her potential + likeability will pretty much allow her to go at athletics for as long as she wants and most likely on someone’s dime.

I also think she’s smart enough and knows the game well enough to know when enough is enough. But one bad marathon isn’t the time to quit. That’s just normal progression, it’s not always going to be roses in this type of pursuit. So maybe she gives it up if she doesn’t make the team and goes become full time mom + corporate speaking tour making bank.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It's been mentioned before but I think the lifestyle difference going from ITU to running was a big factor. With ITU, you are travelling and training all over the world and moving around constantly. With running, you can do all of your training at home and only travel to a select few events.

Travelling gets old.

Andrew Talansky made his decision from World Tour to LD Tri for family reason also, from what he said. More time at home with the wife and kid.

For GJ, I guess it is a mix of love for marathon, and more time with family. Somebody also mentioned relations with USAT ?

Agree. Also, given Nike’s need to find women athletes to sponsor, Gwen is a bargain.

Im not sure Nike has any need to sponsor her, their Next % are the hottest shoes in running and they have taken a huge chunk of market share in Marathons and Half Marathons, not too long ago you would have been lucky to see a couple of serious recreational runners in Nike, asics , brooks and saucony were the real runner brands. Now you go to a Mara and its Nike galore, Adidas and Hoka holding their own. I doubt GJ has had any influence on that, its been the media around breaking two then actually breaking two and the women’s mara world record going down also. A relatively good athlete like GJ adds nothing to the hype, most runner wouldn’t know who GJ is, and as a triathlete she has become irrelevant to those who follow the sport. Now if she cane back to tri, runs really well in ironman in Nike and was challenging Daniella and Annie to win Kona, that has some serious marketing pull.

I was thinking more generally that for non-college sports, the number of available even moderately known women athletes is just a fraction of the number of men athletes. I would guess Nike needs professional women athletes to try to look balanced. So, I’m that sense, they need her. GJ has a fantastic public image. She’s a good bet for any company that wants to avoid PR trouble.

as I said upthread, also keep in mind the ROI. From a cost benefit analysis, Gwen's "salary" or whatever against her social media influence, it might be profitable to have Gwen as a sponsored athlete.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Yer good point

On the other hand, getting results might have some importance... And I don't see her getting any.

I think that Gwen is racing today in Seattle - saw a post on Twitter. I'm assuming it's to run a qualifying time for the Olympic trials. Anyone have any idea of results?

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Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

What kind of race do they have on Fridays??

15:47

https://live.pntfo.com/...vents/194201/results

Pretty sure that’s well off the trials qualifying time of 15:20 for women. What can we read into this?

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Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

Well, 2 years ago she ran a fine 15:15 at the same race and was just barely outkicked by Emily Infeld. So basically, getting injured sucks, and she's still got a ways to go to get back to where she was then. But trials are 5 months away, so who knows what she can do in that time?

women's 5k is on june 25 so it's barely 4 months away.

Pretty sure that’s well off the trials qualifying time of 15:20 for women. What can we read into this? //

Looking at the women's and mens overall times, looks to have been a slowish race, maybe the course, or the early paces??

I hear the course was very flat. And repetitive.

I hear the course was very flat. And repetitive. //

Understand, but if outdoors, windy maybe, super tactical and slowish early paces??

Hah! 10/10

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

It’s still indoor track season. Wind no. Tactical, maybe.

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USAT Level II- Ironman U Certified Coach