I can't see how he will win both, but I think he will win one of them. Whatever Tom targets I firmly believe he will unseat Froome and win it. Tom is a monster, knows to pace himself on the climbs and doesn't respond to stupid attacks and of course everyone knows how he time trials. Tom has the advantage of freshness having only ridden one grand tour last season. I can't wait for the Giro; I will be curious once Tom unveils his schedule. As I understand, Tom hasn't firmly committed either way to the Giro or Tour (or both). I suspect having won the Giro he will go for the Tour this year. I saw that he was recently testing in hospital for a few days so that he doesn't have a mountain top blowout again.

Froome will win both. He has a really good team so he will be tucked in comfy on the flats, and no one can follow him when the mountains get tough. There will be valiant efforts, but when the fat lady sings Froome will be on top.

I agree Froome will win both, the advantage he has over other riders is Team Sky. He can have 2 different stacked and FRESH teams for each tour. Also there is an extra week between the 2 tours this year. I think the real big question is will he do the triple.

The Sky B-team has crumbled in several Grand Tours. Mostly famously the 2016 Vuelta.

Edit: I'd also argue that the 2017 Giro was a team failure. Most of the top GC guys weren't affected - because their teams had them position where you're supposed to be - near the front. Sky was late bringing Thomas to the front, and had to resort to bringing him up the gutter, which left them vulnerable.

I think he will win both, which would be epic, although anything can happen between now and then. But he's certainly in with the best chance to pull this off since Contador in 2011.

For a fan, this will make both races even more fun to follow. It's going to be great!

---

"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

How old is Froome?
He looked very vulnerable at times this year and he is another year older in 2018.
I don't know if he powerful team can protect him from an on-form Dumolin.
Should be great racing this year, I thought last years Dauphine (which Froome did not win) was one of the most exciting races I have ever seen. Would love to see the same in a 3 week Giro.

I don't think either race suits Dumoulin very well. Too punchy-steep and not enough TT. Maybe the Vuelta should be his primary goal. However whichever he rides is likely to do some serious damage to both Froome and his support riders.

My guess is that Froome won't be able to pull it off if his competition splits their efforts correctly. Aru and Nibali could be very competitive at the Giro and Porte/BMC could put Sky on the defensive very early in the Tour (or force Sky to bring a Tour team with very weak climbing support for the last 1/2 of the Tour). The loss of Thomas and/or Kwiakowski early on at the Tour would be tough.

I guess the other big factor will be whether Froome's competition will be able to put together a 3 week race without stumbling. Porte and Landa have the capability, but they so far have faltered when they had, or where given, the opportunity. It should be fun to watch though.

Landa or Aru will take Froome deep in the Giro like they did to Contador. My bet is that will dampen his shot at the TdF, where Quintana, Porte, Bardet, Uran, etc will be licking their chops.

And of course there’s TD, who smoked Froome in what has traditionally been his ace card, not to mention the 35k TTT that Sunweb comfortably beat Sky. So he gets the better of Froome wherever they both show up.

No way it happens. Goes too deep to win Giro. Quintana or Bardet for the Tour win.

I think he tucks in most of the Giro and tries to conserve energy for the TdF to some degree the way he did for the TdF + Vuelta double this year. I don't think we really saw Froome's cards at the TdF this year as he needed to pace out the year to finish off at the Vuelta. But the wildcard, here is not matter how much he tucks in at the Giro, there will be guys like Uran and Bardet and Porte a lot fresher for the TdF. At the Vuelta, almost all the contenders are on fried legs from a previous grand tour (TdF or Giro). However we cut it, Froome entering the Giro just makes the entire Grand Tour season more intersesting. I hope that nothing happens to him and he finishes the entire Giro (win, podium, or near the front does not matter....just want his legs to be soft starting the TdF).

I am also guessing that Sky's prep in between Tours is probably better than Movistar's from a science angle in terms of trading off recovery vs losing form. I would expect Froome to come into the TdF week 1 lacking a bit of form/snap in his legs and build up A race fitness for the second half. I doubt you see him doing any attacks in the first half and pretty well continue sitting in for 10 days after 21 days of largely sitting in at the Giro before we see anything with "panache".....its mainly going to be Robo-Froome for the first 41 days of these two stage races. But it will make the entire season really exciting.

I am kinda looking forward to the first week of the Tour. TTT, cobbles, dirt, possible windy days along the coast. It adds a classics flavor to the race. You could see Van Avermat guiding Porte through the cobbles like Cancellara did with Schleck and if you saw Dumoulin's ride a Strade Bianci you know he can handle the gravel and cobbles better than most GC guys. Bardet is going to hate those days.

I think the GC field is too deep at this time. Froome, Dumoulin, Landa, Bardet, Nibali, Aru, Quintana, Porte, Martin, Uran, Pinot, Yates (both of them), Chavez, Barguil, Zakarin, Kruijswijk, Kelderman...they are all in their primes. It's not to say that they can all win a GT, but when the GC standings are tight, it means that the leaders need to react to more attacks instead of just letting them go up the road and marking just a few.

If there is one person who can pull it off, it's Froome riding with the Sky train. I just wouldn't bet on it. The gap between Froome and the top 10 has narrowed, which in turn has the potential to make these GTs much harder if these guys start attacking each other and protecting their GC positions.

He should add in a hour record....that's what I would do

+1

Why stop there...may as well go for Kona too.

When you said "science", I am sure this is what you meant to say, right?

---

Oui, mais pas de femme toute de suite (yes, but I am not ready for a woman straight away) -Stephen Roche's reply when asked whether he was okay after collapsing at the finish in the La Plagne stage of the 1987 Tour

I agree that Froome probably won't win both, and whichever race Dumoulin does he will be a huge threat, but I don't think he is ready to beat Froome yet. Froome's biggest advantage over other riders is his intelligence and adaptability. Over the past few years we've seen him morphe his strengths to suit the competition, and this year he intentionally held back and did the bare minimum to win the Tour so he could be fresh for the Vuelta. We know he can climb with Quintana, we've seen him do it in 2015, but in the past few years he's just been present on most climbs because he didn't need to crush anyone there, he was able to gain enough time to win in the ITT. So Sky has adopted this less-exciting strategy of controlling the climbs so nobody can attack, then maybe going for some small gains in the end, all the while saving Froome's legs for a devastating ITT. With Dumo in the field this will not be a winning strategy for Froome, Dumo can climb like that and will still take time in the ITT. I hope this means we will see Froome go on the attack much further out to put serious gains into Dumo, then see if he has enough gas to put time in the other climbers when they hit the ITT. Either way the presence of Dumoulin will certainly energize the race, and I think the most interesting dynamic is how it will force Froome to change his strategy.

As for the double (or quadruple actually), I believe there are just too many great riders who will be at the Tour for Froome to come in tired and win. The list of studs is shocking, but really just Porte and Quintana would be enough to make me doubt Froome for the double; they will both be more motivated than ever in 2018 with something to prove.

---

Powertap / Cycleops / Saris

Think it's highly unlikely he'll pull off both, but makes me all the happier that Sky are going for it given their previous heavy focus on the TdF. Doing the Tour-Vuelta double wasn't that risky for Sky - since the Tour came first he could have dug deeper if necessary to win that one, even if doing so reduced his Vuelta chances. Doing the Giro first poses a much bigger risk to Sky's chances of winning the Tour. Everybody is fresh at the Giro, plus the racing there tends to be tough with steeper gradients than the Tour and often inclement weather as well. The few times Froome looked in trouble last year were on very steep climbs, and in the past he's struggled in the cold and wet as well.

I think Froome wins the Giro but digs pretty deep in the process, is vulnerable at the Tour and ends up with a battling third place. Which would still be a phenomenal result and arguably holding all 3 titles at the same time would be a bigger achievement than getting a 5th Tour win.

After thinking about it, I have a feeling that the sponsors are pushing him to do the Giro, and "attempt" the double. What I mean by that is for the last 3 years or so, Froome has been the favorite, and a lot of fans have been resigned to the fact that the same thing will happen like it does every year. We have seen it on this forum...how the TdF is predictable and boring.

While the Giro and Vuelta by themselves are not nearly on the level of the TdF from a worldwide sponsorship exposure perspective, if Froome shows up for the TdF with the previous 3 GT titles, that's all the media will talk about for 3 weeks. It will bring much more attention to the TdF and create doubt. And even if Froome falls flat and struggles to finish in the top 5, it will still be more successful from a sponsorship perspective than skipping the Giro and winning the TdF IMHO.

I also think that Froome does want to win the Giro just to complete his personal palmares. That he knows the Giro/TdF double isn't very realistic, but he's just spinning it off that it is his goal when really he's focused on going all in for the Giro, and just see what happens at the TdF.

I think there is another way to look at it. Froome and Sky may be eying putting Froome in the most elite club of GT riders. He has a shot of holding all 3 GT's at the same time. Only Merckx and Hinault have achieved it. While winning all 5 has Anquetil, and Indurain as members, with Merckx and Hinault. This years tour parcours with an ample dose of cobbles that make controlling the race in the traditional Sky sense more difficult. Personally, I think Sky learned a lot from from the TdF- Vuelta double. He was never really challenged last year and rode intelligently, and has the strongest team.

This Giro will be even more exciting than in the past. In the Tour everyone wants to be on the podium and finish strong because of prestige and media. So Frommes major threats race not lose their position and noone dares to execute dangerous moves. They don't want to die trying. Or, worse, GC guys at position 2-5 only race each other and sometimes even help froome as they cover moves by themselves instead of letting the yellow jersey do the work.

The Giro is a different animal. Not as much media makes it easier to risk blowing up. Everyone is more aggressive and tries to go for it. Hopfully.

---

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

He will attempt to hold all grand tour titles at once and become the first rider to win the fabled Giro-Tour double since Marco Pantani in 1998.

COOL!

I think he was challenged, but heavily assisted by other dumb ass riders!

I believe it was the queen stage in TDF stage 9 last year when bardet had gotten away and the other morons to include uran, aru, the other Astana rider all helped Chris to catch up to bardet!

Instead of making Chris bend himself backwards to catch up; they happily assisted him by taking turns pulling to catch up to vardet and losing Z-E-R-O time!!!

But let it be anyone else under any other circumstances and nobody helps... ex: giro 2017; TD was losing a lot of time to pinot but nibali and NQ did N-O-T-H-I-N-G to help TD to catch him and they shouldn't have

I don't now what it is, riders feel compelled to help Chris one way or another but surely try screw over anyone else!

---

Speed kills unless you have speed skills!!!

Well, he's the best tour rider in the world, so he's got to be favorite for Giro.
If he comes in less than fit for the Giro and uses the first 10 days as training and then hammers the remaining mountain stages, he may still be ok for TdF. Extra week between them next season.

Then if he's anything else left at all after TdF, go for the Vuelta again, in the hope that the favorites will screw up. Not likely I know.

Not entirely sure that's true. Contador couldn't give a toss about a TdF podium having won it several times, and was attacking all over the shop. Just no longer had the legs or team to back it up. Quintana has 3 TdF podiums already, if he saw a chance to go for a win he's not going to play it safe to protect yet another podium, but again he just doesn't seem to have the climbing form that he did a couple of years ago. I think a 2014-15 era Quintana would have done a lot more damage to Dumoulin in the mountains and won this year's Giro.

I think it's more the case that the Tour is the one race where all the strongest contenders show up peaked and with their strongest team, and that strength in depth makes it very difficult to make attacks stick, which leads to what appears to be more conservative racing.

Correct, but that is not a CF problem. In a way the big riders through history have always had that tactical advantage. In a way, his previous victories, dictate how his rivals work. Yes, Astana, and other riders you mentioned aided him, but that is how the race played out. The tactics are different when the Tour had Padrone. When the race is up for grabs, seemingly smarter tactics prevail. It has mostly played out this way, from Anquetil , Merckx, Hinault...What made the '89 tour so great was that Fignon and Lemond were truly fighting it out. The race did not have true leader till the final day. Riders are scared of the big champ landing a counter punch.

The 89 TdF's leaders were neither Lemond nor Fignon, but the engineers in Sun Valley Idaho:







8 seconds after 21 days in the saddle, thanks to some good old fashioned American engineered aerodynamics born from guys on 2 boards going downhill on snow figuring out low is not as good as narrow and low....and then moving that over to the bike!

Getting my thread that i just hijacked back on track. I think that Quintana was "fatter" than his domination climbing days. To me he seems more filled out muscularly than his early rookie days. I'd guestimate he is 3-5 lbs heavier. That's massive at this level, but maybe I am eyeballing wrong. He seems more built like FOP KQ athlete these days than the marathoner build he needs to have to climb at his best.

Well....the reason why Fignon started in yellow on the final day was how they raced in the mountains. Aero won the tour, but race ultimately was close because neither could outright win the race in the mountains.

Froome will win both Giro and TDF in 18 for two reasons: 1) extra week next year between Giro and TDF to recover which is a big deal; and 2) Team Sky train.

Yes Contador was willing to put his eggs onto the table and go all in. But as you wrote yourself he was not at his peak anymore during this years tour so was no real threat. But the young guns raced more for the podium than for the win. That is OK and I wouldn't blame them. But it does not make for the most interesting Tour.

Example: GC guy 4 attacks, guys 2 and 3 panick and close the gap immediately because they fear losing their spot. Froome (guy 1) only laughs because he can sit in let the others destroy themselves and then attack everyone when they are spent.

---

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

This has been going on since time immemorial. It's cycling's version of the prisoner's dilemma. I'm sure Zulle, Riis, Jalabert, et. al. were all acting very similarly in 1995 when Indurain was on top.

---

Citizen of the world, former drunkard. Resident Traumatic Brain Injury advocate.

Ok, you might be true and I am too young. I grew up watching Schleck vs. Contador. But in the last years the giro was more open. But there usually wasn't one big imperium at the front.

---

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Team Sky docs have a bigger impact in my estimation.

---

Brian

Are we saying that British docs in this era or American docs in the Lance era had the upper card on the Spanish and Italian docs....oh wait, Postal used an Italian doc. There may be some available Russian docs since they won't be going to the winter olympics in Korea if there are any protour takers. I would think team Astana would have the inside line into those via the Russo-Khazakh connection.

Froome will get the double assuming no injury. He will likely try and come into the Giro like the tour last year, peak towards the end and carry the form into the tour. The Giro should be interesting, in particular if Landa decides that is his primary target. Porte will be the biggest danger in the tour, Bardet will never win, he simply bleeds too much time. I am assuming Quintana only races the tour this year?

I doubt it. The Giro/TdF hasn't been done in forever and hasn't been done since the Lance era and what I kind of consider a change in the sport of cycling began. When Lance made the TdF the ONLY important race instead of the MOST important race others have followed in suit. Unless the entire sport of cycling changes people are right when they say that winning the Giro will dig you too deep to win the Tour as well. Mostly because most of the other big guns are looking to the TdF and if you dig that deep to win the Giro then at LEAST one of them will beat you like a drum on the Alps and Pyranise. Of course stranger things have happened. And Froome has been Lance like and unbeatable these last few years. But my money says impossible.

---

I still lapped everyone on the couch!

In Draft Animals, Phil claims that riders will bribe each other into taking turns or helping across team boundaries to help someone else in the GC.

I can't see that happening among GC contenders themselves though. But I do wonder sometimes.

I almost think for simple believability you want Froome to not win both. Especially as the Giro has seemed to become a really challenging race early in the year and *no one* seems to race the Tour the same. But of course that probaly is the exact reason Sky/Froome want to do it. To *prove* their methods are untouchable.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

This exactly what I'm saying, how is uran & aru helping C.F. get to the front?! It's madness!!! Bardet would've ended up with a substantial GC leads forcing sky & C.F. to break themselves to make up that time & Aru & Uran tag-team C.F. & let the BETTER man of them 2 win; instead we ended with the same result!!!

Could you imagine that either Sebi or Lionel slowing down to let Frodo catch up & bear all of them on the run?! No, you could NOT... instead what happened was Frodo saw the train of wurf/sebi/Sanders & knew he couldn't just sit there & "hope for the best on the run" frodo abandoned his gamw plan, chased thwm down & greatly overbiked himseld unable to run!!!

The one thing nobody really counted on was on Lange to have such an amazing run! Frodo spell is broken & now it's all about breaking Lange without breaking themselves & turning kona into abike race instead (or so it works in my lil pea size brain) 😆😆😆🤘🤘🤘

---

Speed kills unless you have speed skills!!!

Doctors? Why would young active men that spend their days at fresh air need any docor?

Oh, wait... There is this asthma thing.

---

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

It's either coloured lenses or memory, but you're very much mistaken. Three times did Landa have to actually stop pedalling in the mountains to wait for Froome because he faded BADLY. Actually, had Landa put in a bit more effort in the prologue and not waited for Froome, it would have been a mathematical inevitability that he would end up with the maillot jeune.

100%. I've seen this theory out there right from when it was obvious that he wasn't in as good a shape as Dumoulin and I think Occam's Razor applies here. Movistar screwed up planning by missing the mark on Quintana's form, hoping that ~90% peak was enough to snag the Pink Jersey in Italy (major mistake #1), hoping he could peak again but at 100% and contend for the Yellow at the TdF. And we all know how that turned out.

Well, I don't think anyone really knows what those few Landa accelerations mean or not. I doubt Landa breaks top 5 in any grand tour next year with Movistar. They will manage to screw it all up. There is a reason why everyone who leaves being Froome's domestique can't beat him when they go to another team....they just are not as good as him....or Sky's "system" is better, but nothing stopping Richie Porte from implementing the same at BMC.

The reason why I say we did not see Froome's top form at the TdF is if you look at his performance at the Dauphine 2017 vs Dauphine 2016. That tells our full story in my view. Froome's form was timed later....instead to bagging the Dauphine + TdF double and getting 2nd in the Vuelta, he was off the podium at Dauphine was less dominant at the TdF and more strong at the Vuelta. I don't think a few Landa surges proves the full picture of Froome's fitness/form through the summer. Even the Marseilles ITT he just did enough to keep the win. With all due respect to Bodnar who won that ITT, when Froome is going full throttle, he should beat Bodnar especially an ITT with a decent 1K 10% grade in the middle.

Accelerations? Please rewatch those moments, how easily Landa was taking off, how far away he was and what he had to do when he was obviously ordered to wait for Froome. Oh, and pay attention to how drained he was in all three moments. He was done and Landa wasn't breaking a sweat.

That said, I do agree with your predictions regarding Landa. They're already showing their 'talent' in managing the egos and placements regarding the different tours.

You're fixating on a few Landa moments, but then why was he relatively so poor in the TT. OK so Landa rides away from Froome AND EVERYONE a few times. That still does not paint the full picture over 21 days on who was the better overall rider. Landa still lost 45 second to Froome on the final TT. If he goes nuts on all those accelerations, and gets free reign, it's not that he magically makes up the 2:21 gap to Froome in Paris. If he did go harder on some of those days he would pay the next day or the day after. Sky probably did him a favor by holding him back on some of those days, or he'd be toast the next day or 2 days later and maybe end up 10th on GC after cracking on a bad day.

Let's see what Landa can pull of a Movistar, but it's going to be the same gong show there next year since Quintana is going to want to be team leader the Tour and it might be a good shot for Quintana given Froome doing the double. Speaking of the double, I still question Landa's miracle form at the TdF after the Giro (and I get he did not go full throttle every day, but still seems not normal).