Agree with your points. As to the Rubin article, that is the kind of stuff I stay away from: pundits that try to interpret political events into some cultural narrative. Political punditry is a fools errand, never defensible as coherent rational reasoning, never more than a compilation of cherry picked arguments and statistics, and, thus, serves only to preach to the choir.
Now as to vitus's point above about some 73% of Alabama Republicans thinking allegations against Moore are true,
I looked at the numbers and call that quote to be "fake news." Here are some more numbers out of that poll, with the question being:
Quote:
Q: (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) As you may have heard, several women have claimed Roy Moore made unwanted advances when they were teenagers and Moore was in his 30s, including one who said he touched her sexually when she was 14. Do you think Moore did or did not make unwanted advances toward teenage girls, or are you not sure?
In heavily Republican state, among all likely votors, results (he did/he did not/no opinion), are as follows:
Likely votors: 35/28/27
Republican: 13/46/41
Leaned Republican 13/47/39
Results are divided into 21 demographics which can be viewed in link I posted above.
Here's how I parse the results:
Among all likely voters in Alabama only about a quarter are willing to state to state that they acquit Moore of making unwanted advances toward teenagers.
In no subgroup of voters do a majority of likely voters think "he did not" -- the highest "he did not." Highest "he did not," 47%, is among "leaned republicans" but even in that subgroup, a majority, 53%, are unwilling to acquit Moore. So rather than focusing on the 13% percent that say "he did," I think it is more relevant to say that even in his most favorable demographic, a majority of Republican and Leaned Republicans are not willing to say that Moore did not do it.
I think that you have to count the "no opinion" votes among republican and likely republicans as "I will not acquit Moore" votes. How do can the high number of "no opinion" responses in this demographic be explained? Are these folks less informed? I doubt it. I think think "no opinion" means, I am suspicious of Moore, I think the allegations are credible so I cannot acquit him, but out of party loyalty I will not opine on this issue yet.
So how will these "no opinions" behave in the election? Are they likely to suddenly decide "he did not" do it? I don't think so. I think it is very troublesome for Moore that a week before the election, in his most favorable demographic, a majority of likely voters will not say, in essence, "I find Moore to be credible."
Last point. The poll at issue only asked about "unwanted" advances toward teenagers. I suspect if the question was "any advances toward teenagers," that a much smaller percentage will say "he did not." In other words, people who believe he did not make unwanted advances, may well believe he made advances.
Why is the last point relevant? Because there was another question not discussed in the written "analysis" of the poll:
Quote:
Q: (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Do you think it is ever appropriate for a man in his 30s to date a female 16 year-old, or is this never appropriate?
Among all likely votors, 91% say never appropriate, 4% say appropriate, and even among leaned republicans 85% say never appropriate and 7% appropriate.
Here is what I suspect, if the poll included the following question: "do you think Roy Moore behaved inappropriately in dating teenagers in while he was in his 30s?" the percentage of "yes" across all demographics will be very high (like greater than 75%). That is bad for Moore. Some may forgive him and pull the lever, but I suspect many regular republican voters will stay home. Recall my post above, his margin in his last statewide election, against weaker opponent, was not that high.
Edit: 13% corrected to 73% above.
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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
