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Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms
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https://www.nytimes.com/...-extreme-storms.html

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About 40 years ago, the earth’s surface temperatures began to break out of their recent historical range and just kept climbing. Not coincidentally, the number of storms with extreme rainfall began to increase around the same time.

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.




Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Guffaw] [ In reply to ]
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Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.



OMG!!! Ban margarine in Maine!!
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Guffaw] [ In reply to ]
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Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.



Except one correlation is predicted by models and the other isnt.

who's smarter than you're? i'm!
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Guffaw] [ In reply to ]
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It is certainly true that correlation does not automatically imply correlation, so you need to look at the links between the two. Clearly there are no links between divorce in Maine and margarine consuption, but there are clear links between the temperature of the earth and climate (and levels of water vapor).

There is no dispute that higher levels of CO2 trap more solar heat (feel free to show me a study that refutes this). And the world's climate is getting warmer. The question is, are human emissions of CO2 causing the warming? Most research suggests so. You may prefer a study that doubts human-caused global warming, but you would have to explain why you prefer such a study to the wider body of evidence that supports it.

Bottom line, it there is a plausible link, then correlation is very strong evidence for causation.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Guffaw] [ In reply to ]
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Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.


You are a fool!


_____________________________________
DISH is how we do it.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [travelmama] [ In reply to ]
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travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.

You are a fool!

'Tis may be true. But since I switched to butter, I've been a happily married fool.

Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
Bottom line, it there is a plausible link, then correlation is very strong evidence for causation.

on the other hand, it is very possible margarine does impact the divorce rate in maine. my wife coming home with margarine would create tension in my marriage, the consumption of it making it yet worse.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Guffaw] [ In reply to ]
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Guffaw wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.

You are a fool!

'Tis may be true. But since I switched to butter, I've been a happily married fool.
Good for you because margarine is not right, even for vegans.


_____________________________________
DISH is how we do it.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Bottom line, it there is a plausible link, then correlation is very strong evidence for causation.


on the other hand, it is very possible margarine does impact the divorce rate in maine. my wife coming home with margarine would create tension in my marriage, the consumption of it making it yet worse.

That's an easy fix. Drink less milk:
http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=36
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [travelmama] [ In reply to ]
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Do you know what margarine goes great with?

The rest of my trash!

"The right to party is a battle we have fought, but we'll surrender and go Amish... NOT!" -Wayne Campbell
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [travelmama] [ In reply to ]
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travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.

You are a fool!


'Tis may be true. But since I switched to butter, I've been a happily married fool.

Good for you because margarine is not right, even for vegans.

Margarine spreads so much nicer than butter though. I usually get a butter/margarine blend. Best of all worlds, buttery goodness that doesn't tear your toast to shreds.

Swimming Workout of the Day:

Favourite Swim Sets:

2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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klehner wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/...-extreme-storms.html

Quote:
About 40 years ago, the earth’s surface temperatures began to break out of their recent historical range and just kept climbing. Not coincidentally, the number of storms with extreme rainfall began to increase around the same time.

Wow, who knew that the earth was created in 1895! And here I thought the Young Earth crowd were crazy.

Almost all objective scientists will tell you that you can not equate weather events with AGW? In fact, they cringe when stories like this get written. But hey, a data writer from the NY Times says so, so it must be true. He's an "expert". There is likely more correlation to the butter and Maine chart then the idiocy in that opinion column.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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But wait, I thought global warming was causing all the droughts? So more water vapor in the air causes more droughts AND more rainstorms?

I miss YaHey
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Bottom line, it there is a plausible link, then correlation is very strong evidence for causation.

on the other hand, it is very possible margarine does impact the divorce rate in maine. my wife coming home with margarine would create tension in my marriage, the consumption of it making it yet worse.

Brando knows butter is better.

Civilize the mind, but make savage the body.

- Chinese proverb
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [jwbeuk] [ In reply to ]
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jwbeuk wrote:
klehner wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/...-extreme-storms.html

Quote:
About 40 years ago, the earth’s surface temperatures began to break out of their recent historical range and just kept climbing. Not coincidentally, the number of storms with extreme rainfall began to increase around the same time.


Wow, who knew that the earth was created in 1895! And here I thought the Young Earth crowd were crazy.

Almost all objective scientists will tell you that you can not equate weather events with AGW? In fact, they cringe when stories like this get written. But hey, a data writer from the NY Times says so, so it must be true. He's an "expert". There is likely more correlation to the butter and Maine chart then the idiocy in that opinion column.

Nice try. First, analysis of ice cores can give scientists climate data going back thousands of years, so no, the earth wasn't created in 1895. Even so, the recent trends have been quite stark.

Second, the article is about trends in climate and extreme weather events. There are a couple of helpful charts to show you this. And the author specifically says, "Irma and Harvey weren’t caused by climate change, but they almost certainly would not have been so powerful if the air and the seas fueling them hadn’t been so warm." I agree you can dismiss the second half of that sentence as somewhat sensationalist/opinion, but it doesn't detract from the rest of the article and data.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [jwbeuk] [ In reply to ]
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jwbeuk wrote:
klehner wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/...-extreme-storms.html

Quote:
About 40 years ago, the earth’s surface temperatures began to break out of their recent historical range and just kept climbing. Not coincidentally, the number of storms with extreme rainfall began to increase around the same time.

Wow, who knew that the earth was created in 1895! And here I thought the Young Earth crowd were crazy.

Almost all objective scientists will tell you that you can not equate weather events with AGW? In fact, they cringe when stories like this get written. But hey, a data writer from the NY Times says so, so it must be true. He's an "expert". There is likely more correlation to the butter and Maine chart then the idiocy in that opinion column.

If the weather phenomena is bad it's caused by AGW. If it's good weather then you're confusing weather with climate.

AGW is not falsifiable.

Civilize the mind, but make savage the body.

- Chinese proverb
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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We're pretty happy about the extreme rain from Irma and other wet weather patterns experienced this year. Could it be that this change is a good thing? Can that be a possibility with global warming? Good things?
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [justgeorge] [ In reply to ]
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justgeorge wrote:
But wait, I thought global warming was causing all the droughts? So more water vapor in the air causes more droughts AND more rainstorms?

Well, there are El Nino events too. No-one said this stuff was simple.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Old Hickory] [ In reply to ]
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Old Hickory wrote:
We're pretty happy about the extreme rain from Irma and other wet weather patterns experienced this year. Could it be that this change is a good thing? Can that be a possibility with global warming? Good things?

nice troll.

what is it with the right-wing nuts and their knee jerk response to all things to do with global warming? I've tried to figure this out and the only thing I can come up with is that Al Gore's involvement in this issue turned it into a political thing. I'm sure you and jwbeuk would deny it's political for you, but there is such a consistent link now between die-hard Republicans and anti-global warming advocates that it's impossible to ignore.

Here's a suggestion: think for yourselves with an independent mind for a change.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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Duffy wrote:
Slowman wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Bottom line, it there is a plausible link, then correlation is very strong evidence for causation.

on the other hand, it is very possible margarine does impact the divorce rate in maine. my wife coming home with margarine would create tension in my marriage, the consumption of it making it yet worse.

Brando knows butter is better.

A Last Tango In Paris reference. Nice!

Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
Old Hickory wrote:
We're pretty happy about the extreme rain from Irma and other wet weather patterns experienced this year. Could it be that this change is a good thing? Can that be a possibility with global warming? Good things?


nice troll.

what is it with the right-wing nuts and their knee jerk response to all things to do with global warming? I've tried to figure this out and the only thing I can come up with is that Al Gore's involvement in this issue turned it into a political thing. I'm sure you and jwbeuk would deny it's political for you, but there is such a consistent link now between die-hard Republicans and anti-global warming advocates that it's impossible to ignore.

Here's a suggestion: think for yourselves with an independent mind for a change.

So global warming can only be bad? Is that what you're saying?

I prefer skeptic. I'm skeptical of all religions and it's preachers of impending gloom and doom. And I bet my carbon footprint is smaller than yours and most warmers.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
Clearly there are no links between divorce in Maine and margarine consuption, but there are clear links between the temperature of the earth and climate (and levels of water vapor).

I have no dog in this hunt because I personally find this discussion played out, but you can't win an argument by stating as fact the very things you are trying to prove/disprove. OK, loosely, but you get the point.

First, have you studied the potential for links between divorce and margarine consumption? I suspect no so your "clearly" statement is bonk. You can't use the smell test to disprove something and use it to bolster your "clear" (?) conclusion on something else.

Clearly.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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Duffy wrote:
jwbeuk wrote:
klehner wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/...-extreme-storms.html

Quote:
About 40 years ago, the earth’s surface temperatures began to break out of their recent historical range and just kept climbing. Not coincidentally, the number of storms with extreme rainfall began to increase around the same time.


Wow, who knew that the earth was created in 1895! And here I thought the Young Earth crowd were crazy.

Almost all objective scientists will tell you that you can not equate weather events with AGW? In fact, they cringe when stories like this get written. But hey, a data writer from the NY Times says so, so it must be true. He's an "expert". There is likely more correlation to the butter and Maine chart then the idiocy in that opinion column.


If the weather phenomena is bad it's caused by AGW. If it's good weather then you're confusing weather with climate.

AGW is not falsifiable.

Clearly, you're correct. However, the question of the relation between rainfall and global warming is still out there.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Old Hickory] [ In reply to ]
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Old Hickory wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Old Hickory wrote:
We're pretty happy about the extreme rain from Irma and other wet weather patterns experienced this year. Could it be that this change is a good thing? Can that be a possibility with global warming? Good things?


nice troll.

what is it with the right-wing nuts and their knee jerk response to all things to do with global warming? I've tried to figure this out and the only thing I can come up with is that Al Gore's involvement in this issue turned it into a political thing. I'm sure you and jwbeuk would deny it's political for you, but there is such a consistent link now between die-hard Republicans and anti-global warming advocates that it's impossible to ignore.

Here's a suggestion: think for yourselves with an independent mind for a change.

So global warming can only be bad? Is that what you're saying?

I prefer skeptic. I'm skeptical of all religions and it's preachers of impending gloom and doom. And I bet my carbon footprint is smaller than yours and most warmers.

Theres nuance that you are failing or refusing to grasp. Global warming is a net bad, even if some people in some places see an improvement in local weather.

Are forest fires a net good for the inhabitants in the forest? No. Most will suffer. But some species will say yes, from their perspective.

who's smarter than you're? i'm!
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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JasoninHalifax wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.

You are a fool!


'Tis may be true. But since I switched to butter, I've been a happily married fool.

Good for you because margarine is not right, even for vegans.

Margarine spreads so much nicer than butter though. I usually get a butter/margarine blend. Best of all worlds, buttery goodness that doesn't tear your toast to shreds.
That is faking the funk which is worse. Butter or nothing.


_____________________________________
DISH is how we do it.
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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JasoninHalifax wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.

You are a fool!


'Tis may be true. But since I switched to butter, I've been a happily married fool.

Good for you because margarine is not right, even for vegans.


Margarine spreads so much nicer than butter though. I usually get a butter/margarine blend. Best of all worlds, buttery goodness that doesn't tear your toast to shreds.

Keep it on the counter, not in the fridge.
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [travelmama] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
travelmama wrote:
JasoninHalifax wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.

You are a fool!


'Tis may be true. But since I switched to butter, I've been a happily married fool.

Good for you because margarine is not right, even for vegans.


Margarine spreads so much nicer than butter though. I usually get a butter/margarine blend. Best of all worlds, buttery goodness that doesn't tear your toast to shreds.

That is faking the funk which is worse. Butter or nothing.
Also, just put the butter out on the counter and problem solved. Do I have to think of everything on this forum?
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [DJRed] [ In reply to ]
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DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Clearly there are no links between divorce in Maine and margarine consuption, but there are clear links between the temperature of the earth and climate (and levels of water vapor).


I have no dog in this hunt because I personally find this discussion played out, but you can't win an argument by stating as fact the very things you are trying to prove/disprove. OK, loosely, but you get the point.

First, have you studied the potential for links between divorce and margarine consumption? I suspect no so your "clearly" statement is bonk. You can't use the smell test to disprove something and use it to bolster your "clear" (?) conclusion on something else.

Clearly.

Well except you can use science to show the latter (links between temperature and water vapor levels). There have also been studies to suggest that higher levels of water vapor, in itself, leads to more warming, adding to the effects of CO2 emissions on the earth's temperature. i.e. higher CO2 = more heat trapped = more water vapor in the lower atmosphere = more warming...

Common sense tells you there is no link between divorce and margarine consumption. But feel free to do more analysis on that.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Kay Serrar wrote:
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Clearly there are no links between divorce in Maine and margarine consuption, but there are clear links between the temperature of the earth and climate (and levels of water vapor).


I have no dog in this hunt because I personally find this discussion played out, but you can't win an argument by stating as fact the very things you are trying to prove/disprove. OK, loosely, but you get the point.

First, have you studied the potential for links between divorce and margarine consumption? I suspect no so your "clearly" statement is bonk. You can't use the smell test to disprove something and use it to bolster your "clear" (?) conclusion on something else.

Clearly.


Well except you can use science to show the latter (links between temperature and water vapor levels). There have also been studies to suggest that higher levels of water vapor, in itself, leads to more warming, adding to the effects of CO2 emissions on the earth's temperature. i.e. higher CO2 = more heat trapped = more water vapor in the lower atmosphere = more warming...

Common sense tells you there is no link between divorce and margarine consumption. But feel free to do more analysis on that.

Fine on your climate studies. Like I already said, this discussion is played out and I have no interest in litigating it. I know how I live and I control what I can.

I still take issue with common sense entering the discussion.

Common sense tells me running is bad for your knees.

Common sense tells me drinking alcohol leads to domestic abuse.

Common sense tells me sugar makes kids hyper.

Alas, I don't really care. What I do care about, though, is I apparently missed the memo that we are allowed to eat butter again? WTF? I've been eating dry toast and plain lobster.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Guffaw] [ In reply to ]
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If you want a game changer in your marriage start buying french butter with salt crystals. It exfoliates everything it touches.

BAM!
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Clearly there are no links between divorce in Maine and margarine consuption, but there are clear links between the temperature of the earth and climate (and levels of water vapor).


I have no dog in this hunt because I personally find this discussion played out, but you can't win an argument by stating as fact the very things you are trying to prove/disprove. OK, loosely, but you get the point.

First, have you studied the potential for links between divorce and margarine consumption? I suspect no so your "clearly" statement is bonk. You can't use the smell test to disprove something and use it to bolster your "clear" (?) conclusion on something else.

Clearly.


Well except you can use science to show the latter (links between temperature and water vapor levels). There have also been studies to suggest that higher levels of water vapor, in itself, leads to more warming, adding to the effects of CO2 emissions on the earth's temperature. i.e. higher CO2 = more heat trapped = more water vapor in the lower atmosphere = more warming...

Common sense tells you there is no link between divorce and margarine consumption. But feel free to do more analysis on that.

We simply don't know yet. Did common sense tell you an apple fell from a tree due to gravity before Newton sat under one in Trinity College? I bet not. Give science a chance.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [DJRed] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Clearly there are no links between divorce in Maine and margarine consuption, but there are clear links between the temperature of the earth and climate (and levels of water vapor).


I have no dog in this hunt because I personally find this discussion played out, but you can't win an argument by stating as fact the very things you are trying to prove/disprove. OK, loosely, but you get the point.

First, have you studied the potential for links between divorce and margarine consumption? I suspect no so your "clearly" statement is bonk. You can't use the smell test to disprove something and use it to bolster your "clear" (?) conclusion on something else.

Clearly.


Well except you can use science to show the latter (links between temperature and water vapor levels). There have also been studies to suggest that higher levels of water vapor, in itself, leads to more warming, adding to the effects of CO2 emissions on the earth's temperature. i.e. higher CO2 = more heat trapped = more water vapor in the lower atmosphere = more warming...

Common sense tells you there is no link between divorce and margarine consumption. But feel free to do more analysis on that.


Fine on your climate studies. Like I already said, this discussion is played out and I have no interest in litigating it. I know how I live and I control what I can.

If you voted for Trump or any politician who disputes climate scientist, then you didn't take control in the most important way available to you.

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:
analysis of ice cores can give scientists climate data going back thousands of years

Can you please direct me to a published ice core study that provides data on extreme rainstorm events going back thousands of years.

________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [SH] [ In reply to ]
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SH wrote:
travelmama wrote:
JasoninHalifax wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.

You are a fool!


'Tis may be true. But since I switched to butter, I've been a happily married fool.

Good for you because margarine is not right, even for vegans.


Margarine spreads so much nicer than butter though. I usually get a butter/margarine blend. Best of all worlds, buttery goodness that doesn't tear your toast to shreds.

That is faking the funk which is worse. Butter or nothing.

Also, just put the butter out on the counter and problem solved. Do I have to think of everything on this forum?
And it goes rancid. gross....

Try this....



Swimming Workout of the Day:

Favourite Swim Sets:

2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [H-] [ In reply to ]
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H- wrote:
Quote:
analysis of ice cores can give scientists climate data going back thousands of years

Can you please direct me to a published ice core study that provides data on extreme rainstorm events going back thousands of years.

Do you imagine this to be a question that exposes a weakness in her claim? Or addresses anything argued?

who's smarter than you're? i'm!
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [H-] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
H- wrote:
Quote:
analysis of ice cores can give scientists climate data going back thousands of years


Can you please direct me to a published ice core study that provides data on extreme rainstorm events going back thousands of years.

that's a typical comment from a knee-jerk Republican, anti-global warmist who actually has no interest in intelligent discourse and who will now feign a denial of being exactly that.

I tell you, Al Gore did a huge disservice to the environmental protection cause. He shoved so many of your collective heads into the sand.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
klehner wrote:
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Clearly there are no links between divorce in Maine and margarine consuption, but there are clear links between the temperature of the earth and climate (and levels of water vapor).


I have no dog in this hunt because I personally find this discussion played out, but you can't win an argument by stating as fact the very things you are trying to prove/disprove. OK, loosely, but you get the point.

First, have you studied the potential for links between divorce and margarine consumption? I suspect no so your "clearly" statement is bonk. You can't use the smell test to disprove something and use it to bolster your "clear" (?) conclusion on something else.

Clearly.


Well except you can use science to show the latter (links between temperature and water vapor levels). There have also been studies to suggest that higher levels of water vapor, in itself, leads to more warming, adding to the effects of CO2 emissions on the earth's temperature. i.e. higher CO2 = more heat trapped = more water vapor in the lower atmosphere = more warming...

Common sense tells you there is no link between divorce and margarine consumption. But feel free to do more analysis on that.


Fine on your climate studies. Like I already said, this discussion is played out and I have no interest in litigating it. I know how I live and I control what I can.


If you voted for Trump or any politician who disputes climate scientist, then you didn't take control in the most important way available to you.

Common sense tells you it doesn't matter who you vote for because after placing that vote, you have no control over what that politician does.

But, regardless of who I vote for, if we all took care of our own little corner of the world, we wouldn't need these yahoos in government to legislate cars, and gas mileage, and recycling, and...
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [DJRed] [ In reply to ]
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DJRed wrote:
Common sense tells you it doesn't matter who you vote for because after placing that vote, you have no control over what that politician does.

But, regardless of who I vote for, if we all took care of our own little corner of the world, we wouldn't need these yahoos in government to legislate cars, and gas mileage, and recycling, and...

Your common sense needs some tuning. Government policy is the most important factor in global warming.

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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klehner wrote:
. Government policy is the most important factor in global warming.


Do you really need Duffy to tell us about the government policies which were suppose to "help" that are actively contributing to the problem again?

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?
Last edited by: BLeP: Sep 12, 17 10:41
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
klehner wrote:
DJRed wrote:

Common sense tells you it doesn't matter who you vote for because after placing that vote, you have no control over what that politician does.

But, regardless of who I vote for, if we all took care of our own little corner of the world, we wouldn't need these yahoos in government to legislate cars, and gas mileage, and recycling, and...


Your common sense needs some tuning. Government policy is the most important factor in global warming.

Now we get to the (in my opinion) heart of the matter.

What government policy do we have that actually stops AGW? What proposed policy would really stop it?
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [svennn] [ In reply to ]
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svennn wrote:
klehner wrote:
DJRed wrote:

Common sense tells you it doesn't matter who you vote for because after placing that vote, you have no control over what that politician does.

But, regardless of who I vote for, if we all took care of our own little corner of the world, we wouldn't need these yahoos in government to legislate cars, and gas mileage, and recycling, and...


Your common sense needs some tuning. Government policy is the most important factor in global warming.


Now we get to the (in my opinion) heart of the matter.

What government policy do we have that actually stops AGW? What proposed policy would really stop it?

How about stopping funding for supposed clean coal and other fossil fuel initiatives, and setting in place a policy that will lead to stopping reliance on fossil fuels? Just think what the world would be like if we could tell all the Islamists to go pound sand, because we don't care about the Middle East any more?

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [svennn] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
svennn wrote:
klehner wrote:
DJRed wrote:

Common sense tells you it doesn't matter who you vote for because after placing that vote, you have no control over what that politician does.

But, regardless of who I vote for, if we all took care of our own little corner of the world, we wouldn't need these yahoos in government to legislate cars, and gas mileage, and recycling, and...


Your common sense needs some tuning. Government policy is the most important factor in global warming.


Now we get to the (in my opinion) heart of the matter.

What government policy do we have that actually stops AGW? What proposed policy would really stop it?

Take a look at the state of South Australia. They recently shuttered their last coal-fired power station and now generate over 50% of their energy via renewable sources. Sure, there are challenges, particularly the cost of battery storage, which is still high, to cover periods where the wind and solar generation rates drop. But the cost of this storage will continue to fall, making renewable energy sources more viable for electrcity generation. But it requires government leadship and vision to drive such initiatives.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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klehner wrote:
How about stopping funding for supposed clean coal and other fossil fuel initiatives, and setting in place a policy that will lead to stopping reliance on fossil fuels? Just think what the world would be like if we could tell all the Islamists to go pound sand, because we don't care about the Middle East any more?

I'm not a denier but I am a realist who does not trust politicians to "fix" it for us.

You ideas sound great but are not realistic. It needs to be a globally applicable solution that is cost effective and available now. Otherwise all I see is a quick trip to pretty much ruining our economy. Real change is gonna cost everyone a lot of money.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
JasoninHalifax wrote:
SH wrote:
travelmama wrote:
JasoninHalifax wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
travelmama wrote:
Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.

You are a fool!


'Tis may be true. But since I switched to butter, I've been a happily married fool.

Good for you because margarine is not right, even for vegans.


Margarine spreads so much nicer than butter though. I usually get a butter/margarine blend. Best of all worlds, buttery goodness that doesn't tear your toast to shreds.

That is faking the funk which is worse. Butter or nothing.

Also, just put the butter out on the counter and problem solved. Do I have to think of everything on this forum?

And it goes rancid. gross....

Try this....

Never happened to us. We get that expensive Irish butter from Costco, put it in one of those upside-down butter dishes with water in the bottom. Never had an issue. I mean, we haven't left it out for a month or anything...
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [svennn] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
svennn wrote:
klehner wrote:

How about stopping funding for supposed clean coal and other fossil fuel initiatives, and setting in place a policy that will lead to stopping reliance on fossil fuels? Just think what the world would be like if we could tell all the Islamists to go pound sand, because we don't care about the Middle East any more?


I'm not a denier but I am a realist who does not trust politicians to "fix" it for us.

You ideas sound great but are not realistic. It needs to be a globally applicable solution that is cost effective and available now. Otherwise all I see is a quick trip to pretty much ruining our economy. Real change is gonna cost everyone a lot of money.

On the contrary, such initiatives actually generate jobs and stimulate the economy. Can you point to any countries whose economies have been ruined because of a switch to more renewable energy sources?

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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klehner wrote:
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Clearly there are no links between divorce in Maine and margarine consuption, but there are clear links between the temperature of the earth and climate (and levels of water vapor).


I have no dog in this hunt because I personally find this discussion played out, but you can't win an argument by stating as fact the very things you are trying to prove/disprove. OK, loosely, but you get the point.

First, have you studied the potential for links between divorce and margarine consumption? I suspect no so your "clearly" statement is bonk. You can't use the smell test to disprove something and use it to bolster your "clear" (?) conclusion on something else.

Clearly.


Well except you can use science to show the latter (links between temperature and water vapor levels). There have also been studies to suggest that higher levels of water vapor, in itself, leads to more warming, adding to the effects of CO2 emissions on the earth's temperature. i.e. higher CO2 = more heat trapped = more water vapor in the lower atmosphere = more warming...

Common sense tells you there is no link between divorce and margarine consumption. But feel free to do more analysis on that.


Fine on your climate studies. Like I already said, this discussion is played out and I have no interest in litigating it. I know how I live and I control what I can.


If you voted for Trump or any politician who disputes climate scientist, then you didn't take control in the most important way available to you.

Maybe the vote for Trump was much bigger than this single issue. Maybe?
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Old Hickory] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Old Hickory wrote:
klehner wrote:
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Clearly there are no links between divorce in Maine and margarine consuption, but there are clear links between the temperature of the earth and climate (and levels of water vapor).


I have no dog in this hunt because I personally find this discussion played out, but you can't win an argument by stating as fact the very things you are trying to prove/disprove. OK, loosely, but you get the point.

First, have you studied the potential for links between divorce and margarine consumption? I suspect no so your "clearly" statement is bonk. You can't use the smell test to disprove something and use it to bolster your "clear" (?) conclusion on something else.

Clearly.


Well except you can use science to show the latter (links between temperature and water vapor levels). There have also been studies to suggest that higher levels of water vapor, in itself, leads to more warming, adding to the effects of CO2 emissions on the earth's temperature. i.e. higher CO2 = more heat trapped = more water vapor in the lower atmosphere = more warming...

Common sense tells you there is no link between divorce and margarine consumption. But feel free to do more analysis on that.


Fine on your climate studies. Like I already said, this discussion is played out and I have no interest in litigating it. I know how I live and I control what I can.


If you voted for Trump or any politician who disputes climate scientist, then you didn't take control in the most important way available to you.


Maybe the vote for Trump was much bigger than this single issue. Maybe?

Maybe that's a completely different topic. Maybe?

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
klehner wrote:
Old Hickory wrote:
klehner wrote:
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
DJRed wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Clearly there are no links between divorce in Maine and margarine consuption, but there are clear links between the temperature of the earth and climate (and levels of water vapor).


I have no dog in this hunt because I personally find this discussion played out, but you can't win an argument by stating as fact the very things you are trying to prove/disprove. OK, loosely, but you get the point.

First, have you studied the potential for links between divorce and margarine consumption? I suspect no so your "clearly" statement is bonk. You can't use the smell test to disprove something and use it to bolster your "clear" (?) conclusion on something else.

Clearly.


Well except you can use science to show the latter (links between temperature and water vapor levels). There have also been studies to suggest that higher levels of water vapor, in itself, leads to more warming, adding to the effects of CO2 emissions on the earth's temperature. i.e. higher CO2 = more heat trapped = more water vapor in the lower atmosphere = more warming...

Common sense tells you there is no link between divorce and margarine consumption. But feel free to do more analysis on that.


Fine on your climate studies. Like I already said, this discussion is played out and I have no interest in litigating it. I know how I live and I control what I can.


If you voted for Trump or any politician who disputes climate scientist, then you didn't take control in the most important way available to you.


Maybe the vote for Trump was much bigger than this single issue. Maybe?


Maybe that's a completely different topic. Maybe?

Is it? Should everyone conform to the same beliefs and thus we rid the world of all disputes? Should we pick your beliefs?
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Don't look at South Australia. They have electricity costs which will curl your toes and during a fairly recent hot spell they had rolling blackouts because of lack of capacity. They are not too happy about the renewable energy decision down there. My last exchange student was from there and a mere mention of that causes smoke to come from her dad's ears. But then he also likes Trump

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [len] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, there are challenges, as I alluded to. The main ones being cost and back-up storage.

South Australia recently signed an agreement with SolarReserve to build a 150MW solar plant that will be ready in 2020 and will provide electricity for 8 hours post-sunset using molten salt to store energy. Battery storage will be increased and in July the SA government signed a deal with Tesla to improve the reliability of the grid. These are economically viable solutions without reverting back to fossil fuels.

But yes, some consumers will complain when costs go up, and maybe a Trump-equivalent will be voted into office and try to re-start the coal industry in South Australia. Or maybe not... Maybe South Australians will be collectively proud of their leadership and ambitions. Other states and cities in Australia are following their lead, as are other countries, and - shock horror - even US states. NY announced a new USD1.5bn renewable energy initiative after Trump pulled out of the Paris Accord.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [len] [ In reply to ]
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len wrote:
Don't look at South Australia. They have electricity costs which will curl your toes and during a fairly recent hot spell they had rolling blackouts because of lack of capacity. They are not too happy about the renewable energy decision down there. My last exchange student was from there and a mere mention of that causes smoke to come from her dad's ears. But then he also likes Trump

It costs a lot of money to treat cancer and it causes major disruption in peoples lives. Best not to do anything about it then.

who's smarter than you're? i'm!
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [veganerd] [ In reply to ]
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veganerd wrote:
H- wrote:
Quote:
analysis of ice cores can give scientists climate data going back thousands of years


Can you please direct me to a published ice core study that provides data on extreme rainstorm events going back thousands of years.


Do you imagine this to be a question that exposes a weakness in her claim? Or addresses anything argued?

I think it exposes a weakness in his (Kay Serrar's) refutation of the sample size objection that jwbeuk made, specifically:

1. OP cites an article discussing correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms.

2. Post 13 jwbeuk responds to the OP with the following statement. "Wow, who knew that the earth was created in 1895! And here I thought the Young Earth crowd were crazy." Now putting aside the sarcasm and polemic, I take the point to be an argument about sample size, i.e., can we call recent events "extreme" on a climactic level when rainfall data is decadal or centenary and climate changes occur on millennial scale.

3. In Post 16 Kay Serrar responds to jwbeuk. He could argue that the sample size objection is erroneous, but he does not. He point to the existence of data: "Nice try. First, analysis of ice cores can give scientists climate data going back thousands of years, so no, the earth wasn't created in 1895."

4. I do not believe that ice core data is relevant as it is not of the type to provide measure of extreme rainfall events. I suspect that Kay Serrar has made a faulty argument, but I give him the benefit of doubt and ask, in post 34, if ice core data provides evidence of extreme rainfall events.

5. In post 37 Kay Serrar responds to my question with ad hominem.

________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [jwbeuk] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
jwbeuk wrote:
klehner wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/...-extreme-storms.html

Quote:
About 40 years ago, the earth’s surface temperatures began to break out of their recent historical range and just kept climbing. Not coincidentally, the number of storms with extreme rainfall began to increase around the same time.


Wow, who knew that the earth was created in 1895! And here I thought the Young Earth crowd were crazy.

Almost all objective scientists will tell you that you can not equate weather events with AGW? In fact, they cringe when stories like this get written. But hey, a data writer from the NY Times says so, so it must be true. He's an "expert". There is likely more correlation to the butter and Maine chart then the idiocy in that opinion column.

I've no opinion on the subject of this thread. I'm generally inclined to agree with the premise of the article -- but that is based on thermodynamic principles and not on science. I find it curious that we debate this issue based on an "opinion" piece by a guy with what appears to be an economics background. He could use a technical editor to clean-up foolishness like this claim:

Quote:
Yet Florida faces problems much bigger than any one storm. The increased rain is falling into seas swollen by melted ice caps.

LOL.

________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [veganerd] [ In reply to ]
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We might have trouble treating cancer because of all the tax revenues we are losing because of the industry that is fleeing our province because of high energy costs. :) Renewable is good but put in on demand at needed capacity if you are going to do it and you cannot get too far ahead of neighboring jurisdictions in cost.

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
Old Hickory wrote:
We're pretty happy about the extreme rain from Irma and other wet weather patterns experienced this year. Could it be that this change is a good thing? Can that be a possibility with global warming? Good things?


nice troll.

what is it with the right-wing nuts and their knee jerk response to all things to do with global warming? I've tried to figure this out and the only thing I can come up with is that Al Gore's involvement in this issue turned it into a political thing. I'm sure you and jwbeuk would deny it's political for you, but there is such a consistent link now between die-hard Republicans and anti-global warming advocates that it's impossible to ignore.

Here's a suggestion: think for yourselves with an independent mind for a change.

Nice jump right into insults. I have always believed that the first to use insults is usually in the wrong, thank you for keeping that belief alive.

The reality is that much of the data is so hosed up that no one can really say whether or not there has been global warming at all. All of the Australian numbers were just revised downward because they were using the wrong calculations in processing the raw data. None of the US data factors in urban growth over the decades, the temps were taken from rural airports or smaller airports in the 1960s which are either now surrounded by buildings and parking lots or newer airports with more concrete and bigger parking lots. Many of the Russian weather locations went dark in the 1990s, which changed the raw data input but I have never seen a real means of factoring in that missing data in any of the research that I have seen.

The truth is the only real way to determine global warming is sea surface temps, which are taken in much more varied locations daily by every Navy ship in the fleets. The ocean does not change like airport locations do over time. If it is shown that the sea surface temps are going up worldwide, then I would believe it.

The funny thing is we are overdue for a lot of volcanic activity these days, and it would only take couple of conventional volcanoes or one super volcano to make us wish for global warming.
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [vecchia capra] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
vecchia capra wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Old Hickory wrote:
We're pretty happy about the extreme rain from Irma and other wet weather patterns experienced this year. Could it be that this change is a good thing? Can that be a possibility with global warming? Good things?


nice troll.

what is it with the right-wing nuts and their knee jerk response to all things to do with global warming? I've tried to figure this out and the only thing I can come up with is that Al Gore's involvement in this issue turned it into a political thing. I'm sure you and jwbeuk would deny it's political for you, but there is such a consistent link now between die-hard Republicans and anti-global warming advocates that it's impossible to ignore.

Here's a suggestion: think for yourselves with an independent mind for a change.


Nice jump right into insults. I have always believed that the first to use insults is usually in the wrong, thank you for keeping that belief alive.

The reality is that much of the data is so hosed up that no one can really say whether or not there has been global warming at all. All of the Australian numbers were just revised downward because they were using the wrong calculations in processing the raw data. None of the US data factors in urban growth over the decades, the temps were taken from rural airports or smaller airports in the 1960s which are either now surrounded by buildings and parking lots or newer airports with more concrete and bigger parking lots. Many of the Russian weather locations went dark in the 1990s, which changed the raw data input but I have never seen a real means of factoring in that missing data in any of the research that I have seen.

The truth is the only real way to determine global warming is sea surface temps, which are taken in much more varied locations daily by every Navy ship in the fleets. The ocean does not change like airport locations do over time. If it is shown that the sea surface temps are going up worldwide, then I would believe it.

The funny thing is we are overdue for a lot of volcanic activity these days, and it would only take couple of conventional volcanoes or one super volcano to make us wish for global warming.

Calling Old Hick a right wing nut is probably a compliment in his eyes.

It's hard to respond sensibly to someone asking if global warming could be a good thing.
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [vecchia capra] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
vecchia capra wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Old Hickory wrote:
We're pretty happy about the extreme rain from Irma and other wet weather patterns experienced this year. Could it be that this change is a good thing? Can that be a possibility with global warming? Good things?


nice troll.

what is it with the right-wing nuts and their knee jerk response to all things to do with global warming? I've tried to figure this out and the only thing I can come up with is that Al Gore's involvement in this issue turned it into a political thing. I'm sure you and jwbeuk would deny it's political for you, but there is such a consistent link now between die-hard Republicans and anti-global warming advocates that it's impossible to ignore.

Here's a suggestion: think for yourselves with an independent mind for a change.


Nice jump right into insults. I have always believed that the first to use insults is usually in the wrong, thank you for keeping that belief alive.

The reality is that much of the data is so hosed up that no one can really say whether or not there has been global warming at all. All of the Australian numbers were just revised downward because they were using the wrong calculations in processing the raw data. None of the US data factors in urban growth over the decades, the temps were taken from rural airports or smaller airports in the 1960s which are either now surrounded by buildings and parking lots or newer airports with more concrete and bigger parking lots. Many of the Russian weather locations went dark in the 1990s, which changed the raw data input but I have never seen a real means of factoring in that missing data in any of the research that I have seen.

The truth is the only real way to determine global warming is sea surface temps, which are taken in much more varied locations daily by every Navy ship in the fleets. The ocean does not change like airport locations do over time. If it is shown that the sea surface temps are going up worldwide, then I would believe it.

The funny thing is we are overdue for a lot of volcanic activity these days, and it would only take couple of conventional volcanoes or one super volcano to make us wish for global warming.

1) If the Earth *isn't* warming, then how do you explain the polar ice sheets shrinking dramatically? You might be able to debate the finer points of exactly how much vs how fast and what all the governing feedbacks are, but at the most fundamental level it's a pretty straightforward relationship between warming = melting.

2) You must be trying awfully hard to not see any/all of the data that's been published regarding exactly that. Maybe in language you could relate to, that's like saying "IF" it is shown that Hillary is a self-serving liar, then I would believe it.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [OneGoodLeg] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
OneGoodLeg wrote:
vecchia capra wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Old Hickory wrote:
We're pretty happy about the extreme rain from Irma and other wet weather patterns experienced this year. Could it be that this change is a good thing? Can that be a possibility with global warming? Good things?


nice troll.

what is it with the right-wing nuts and their knee jerk response to all things to do with global warming? I've tried to figure this out and the only thing I can come up with is that Al Gore's involvement in this issue turned it into a political thing. I'm sure you and jwbeuk would deny it's political for you, but there is such a consistent link now between die-hard Republicans and anti-global warming advocates that it's impossible to ignore.

Here's a suggestion: think for yourselves with an independent mind for a change.


Nice jump right into insults. I have always believed that the first to use insults is usually in the wrong, thank you for keeping that belief alive.

The reality is that much of the data is so hosed up that no one can really say whether or not there has been global warming at all. All of the Australian numbers were just revised downward because they were using the wrong calculations in processing the raw data. None of the US data factors in urban growth over the decades, the temps were taken from rural airports or smaller airports in the 1960s which are either now surrounded by buildings and parking lots or newer airports with more concrete and bigger parking lots. Many of the Russian weather locations went dark in the 1990s, which changed the raw data input but I have never seen a real means of factoring in that missing data in any of the research that I have seen.

The truth is the only real way to determine global warming is sea surface temps, which are taken in much more varied locations daily by every Navy ship in the fleets. The ocean does not change like airport locations do over time. If it is shown that the sea surface temps are going up worldwide, then I would believe it.

The funny thing is we are overdue for a lot of volcanic activity these days, and it would only take couple of conventional volcanoes or one super volcano to make us wish for global warming.

1) If the Earth *isn't* warming, then how do you explain the polar ice sheets shrinking dramatically? You might be able to debate the finer points of exactly how much vs how fast and what all the governing feedbacks are, but at the most fundamental level it's a pretty straightforward relationship between warming = melting.

2) You must be trying awfully hard to not see any/all of the data that's been published regarding exactly that. Maybe in language you could relate to, that's like saying "IF" it is shown that Hillary is a self-serving liar, then I would believe it.

The first sentence you bolded above is the classic global warming denier's refrain. "Oh the data is being [manipulated/distorted/embellished...] and there are plenty of studies that show it's just as likely natural cycles."

The problem is, as you point out, they selectively choose to ignore the vast majority of scientific studies published by reputable scientists on the topic. There is actually no persuading people who are both laymen on a topic and have preconceived ideas about the answers. It's a bit like trying to present fossil evidence to a creationist.
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [vecchia capra] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
vecchia capra wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Old Hickory wrote:
We're pretty happy about the extreme rain from Irma and other wet weather patterns experienced this year. Could it be that this change is a good thing? Can that be a possibility with global warming? Good things?


nice troll.

what is it with the right-wing nuts and their knee jerk response to all things to do with global warming? I've tried to figure this out and the only thing I can come up with is that Al Gore's involvement in this issue turned it into a political thing. I'm sure you and jwbeuk would deny it's political for you, but there is such a consistent link now between die-hard Republicans and anti-global warming advocates that it's impossible to ignore.

Here's a suggestion: think for yourselves with an independent mind for a change.


Nice jump right into insults. I have always believed that the first to use insults is usually in the wrong, thank you for keeping that belief alive.

The reality is that much of the data is so hosed up that no one can really say whether or not there has been global warming at all. All of the Australian numbers were just revised downward because they were using the wrong calculations in processing the raw data. None of the US data factors in urban growth over the decades, the temps were taken from rural airports or smaller airports in the 1960s which are either now surrounded by buildings and parking lots or newer airports with more concrete and bigger parking lots. Many of the Russian weather locations went dark in the 1990s, which changed the raw data input but I have never seen a real means of factoring in that missing data in any of the research that I have seen.

The truth is the only real way to determine global warming is sea surface temps, which are taken in much more varied locations daily by every Navy ship in the fleets. The ocean does not change like airport locations do over time. If it is shown that the sea surface temps are going up worldwide, then I would believe it.

The funny thing is we are overdue for a lot of volcanic activity these days, and it would only take couple of conventional volcanoes or one super volcano to make us wish for global warming.

One thing is really strange. All the so called skeptics are active on blogs, talk radio, tv, but they never write any rebuttals in the science journals.

To say it in another way. The so called skeptics have no data and not arguments. That is why they are not taking part in the science debate.

If they had data and arguments, they could just stat writing rebuttals in Science or Nature.

You should ask one questions to the skeptics, where is the data supporting their view.
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [H-] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Apologies if you actually intended to engage in sensible dialogue.

Ad hominem attack? Hardly up to your standards of calling all men pigs.

Restaurant_dress_code_and_pregnant_woman_P6415391-2/
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Kay Serrar wrote:
Apologies if you actually intended to engage in sensible dialogue.

Ad hominem attack? Hardly up to your standards of calling all men pigs.

Restaurant_dress_code_and_pregnant_woman_P6415391-2/

No problem. But to be clear, that post in the dress code thread was not ad hominem as I was not using it to refute any argument. I was simply pointing out that men are pigs. Also, that thread was completely one sided.

________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [H-] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
H- wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Apologies if you actually intended to engage in sensible dialogue.

Ad hominem attack? Hardly up to your standards of calling all men pigs.

Restaurant_dress_code_and_pregnant_woman_P6415391-2/

No problem. But to be clear, that post in the dress code thread was not ad hominem as I was not using it to refute any argument. I was simply pointing out that men are pigs. Also, that thread was completely one sided.

To be super clear, an ad hominem is simply an insult and has nothing to do with an argument. An ad honinem fallacy does, but they are not the same thing.

who's smarter than you're? i'm!
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Guffaw] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Guffaw wrote:
But wait, there is more! There is a 99.26% correlation between Divorce Rates in Maine & Consumption of Margarine.



If my wife came home and found me naked and smothered in 8lbs of margarine, I reckon she'd file for divorce.
Quote Reply
Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [veganerd] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
veganerd wrote:
H- wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Apologies if you actually intended to engage in sensible dialogue.

Ad hominem attack? Hardly up to your standards of calling all men pigs.

Restaurant_dress_code_and_pregnant_woman_P6415391-2/


No problem. But to be clear, that post in the dress code thread was not ad hominem as I was not using it to refute any argument. I was simply pointing out that men are pigs. Also, that thread was completely one sided.


To be super clear, an ad hominem is simply an insult and has nothing to do with an argument. An ad honinem fallacy does, but they are not the same thing.

To be super, super clear, looking at Webster's dictionary, ad hominem is not defined as a synonym for insult:

Quote:
Definition of ad hominem
1 :appealing to feelings or prejudices rather than intellect
  • an ad hominem argument

2 :marked by or being an attack on an opponent's character rather than by an answer to the contentions made
  • made an ad hominem personal attack on his rival

Ad hominem is an adjective and insult is a noun or verb.

________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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It's hard to respond sensibly to someone asking if global warming could be a good thing.

A warmer planet would be beneficial to humankind in many ways. More food is one example.

During what time period would you say that the earth experienced the ideal climate?

Civilize the mind, but make savage the body.

- Chinese proverb
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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klehner wrote:
svennn wrote:
klehner wrote:
DJRed wrote:

Common sense tells you it doesn't matter who you vote for because after placing that vote, you have no control over what that politician does.

But, regardless of who I vote for, if we all took care of our own little corner of the world, we wouldn't need these yahoos in government to legislate cars, and gas mileage, and recycling, and...


Your common sense needs some tuning. Government policy is the most important factor in global warming.


Now we get to the (in my opinion) heart of the matter.

What government policy do we have that actually stops AGW? What proposed policy would really stop it?


How about stopping funding for supposed clean energy and other energy initiatives, and setting in place a policy that will lead to stopping reliance on fossil fuels? Just think what the world would be like if we could tell all the Islamists to go pound sand, because we don't care about the Middle East any more?

FIFY - rare earth metal mining is extremely harmful to the environment and non-renewable yet very much necessary for "renewable" energy sources.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [vecchia capra] [ In reply to ]
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vecchia capra wrote:
The reality is that much of the data is so hosed up that no one can really say whether or not there has been global warming at all.

Unsubstantiated assertion.

vecchia capra wrote:
All of the Australian numbers were just revised downward because they were using the wrong calculations in processing the raw data.

Well, no, it wasn't all of them - it was about six stations (of nearly 700) that had buggy firmware on cards installed in the 90s, such that temperatures below -10.4C were not recorded properly. That's not a good thing, but it seems like you might be blowing things a little out of proportion.

vecchia capra wrote:
None of the US data factors in urban growth over the decades, the temps were taken from rural airports or smaller airports in the 1960s which are either now surrounded by buildings and parking lots or newer airports with more concrete and bigger parking lots.


Completely untrue. Heat island effects are taken into account data processing.

vecchia capra wrote:
Many of the Russian weather locations went dark in the 1990s, which changed the raw data input but I have never seen a real means of factoring in that missing data in any of the research that I have seen.


You must not be looking at very much research, then. The loss of Russian weather stations has been addressed in the scientific literature on the GHCN. The interesting thing is that observed surface warming would be greater if those stations had remained operational. This is because many of those stations were high-latitude stations with a continental climate - which is where we see pronounced surface warming. So that "missing data" you're complaining about? It most likely reduces the observed global warming.

vecchia capra wrote:
The truth is the only real way to determine global warming is sea surface temps, which are taken in much more varied locations daily by every Navy ship in the fleets.


Completely untrue. And I say that despite the fact that SSTs show a consistent upward trend.

vecchia capra wrote:
The ocean does not change like airport locations do over time. If it is shown that the sea surface temps are going up worldwide, then I would believe it. .

Then believe it, brother!



vecchia capra wrote:
The funny thing is we are overdue for a lot of volcanic activity these days, and it would only take couple of conventional volcanoes or one super volcano to make us wish for global warming.

Overdue for volcanic activity? Did someone provide you with a schedule?
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [H-] [ In reply to ]
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H- wrote:
veganerd wrote:
H- wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Apologies if you actually intended to engage in sensible dialogue.

Ad hominem attack? Hardly up to your standards of calling all men pigs.

Restaurant_dress_code_and_pregnant_woman_P6415391-2/


No problem. But to be clear, that post in the dress code thread was not ad hominem as I was not using it to refute any argument. I was simply pointing out that men are pigs. Also, that thread was completely one sided.


To be super clear, an ad hominem is simply an insult and has nothing to do with an argument. An ad honinem fallacy does, but they are not the same thing.

To be super, super clear, looking at Webster's dictionary, ad hominem is not defined as a synonym for insult:

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Definition of ad hominem
1 :appealing to feelings or prejudices rather than intellect
  • an ad hominem argument

2 :marked by or being an attack on an opponent's character rather than by an answer to the contentions made
  • made an ad hominem personal attack on his rival

Ad hominem is an adjective and insult is a noun or verb.

Ad hominem is latin for to the man. Its an insult, distinct from the ad honinem fallacy.


Many people use it as shorthand, as you are.

who's smarter than you're? i'm!
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [H-] [ In reply to ]
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H- wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Apologies if you actually intended to engage in sensible dialogue.

Ad hominem attack? Hardly up to your standards of calling all men pigs.

Restaurant_dress_code_and_pregnant_woman_P6415391-2/

No problem. But to be clear, that post in the dress code thread was not ad hominem as I was not using it to refute any argument. I was simply pointing out that men are pigs. Also, that thread was completely one sided.

I said your comment was typical of a knee-jerk Republican anti-global warmist. You said all men are pigs. mmmkay.

A one-sided thread is one where most people agree. You're correct that most people agreed the restaurant did little wrong, including many women. But at least we clarified your view of all men.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Halvard wrote:
One thing is really strange. All the so called skeptics are active on blogs, talk radio, tv, but they never write any rebuttals in the science journals.

To say it in another way. The so called skeptics have no data and not arguments. That is why they are not taking part in the science debate.

If they had data and arguments, they could just stat writing rebuttals in Science or Nature.

You should ask one questions to the skeptics, where is the data supporting their view.

I personally knew a scientist who published anti-warming papers and was often quoted on the denier's side. He made no bones about the fact that it was a political fight for him (in private). He would practically curse Al Gore's name. After a while, it was shown that many of his papers were in error. I should add that climate science was not his field, nor very close to his field, but he felt that his scientific mind made him better at parsing data than any climate researcher.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kay Serrar wrote:
vecchia capra wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Old Hickory wrote:
We're pretty happy about the extreme rain from Irma and other wet weather patterns experienced this year. Could it be that this change is a good thing? Can that be a possibility with global warming? Good things?


nice troll.

what is it with the right-wing nuts and their knee jerk response to all things to do with global warming? I've tried to figure this out and the only thing I can come up with is that Al Gore's involvement in this issue turned it into a political thing. I'm sure you and jwbeuk would deny it's political for you, but there is such a consistent link now between die-hard Republicans and anti-global warming advocates that it's impossible to ignore.

Here's a suggestion: think for yourselves with an independent mind for a change.


Nice jump right into insults. I have always believed that the first to use insults is usually in the wrong, thank you for keeping that belief alive.

The reality is that much of the data is so hosed up that no one can really say whether or not there has been global warming at all. All of the Australian numbers were just revised downward because they were using the wrong calculations in processing the raw data. None of the US data factors in urban growth over the decades, the temps were taken from rural airports or smaller airports in the 1960s which are either now surrounded by buildings and parking lots or newer airports with more concrete and bigger parking lots. Many of the Russian weather locations went dark in the 1990s, which changed the raw data input but I have never seen a real means of factoring in that missing data in any of the research that I have seen.

The truth is the only real way to determine global warming is sea surface temps, which are taken in much more varied locations daily by every Navy ship in the fleets. The ocean does not change like airport locations do over time. If it is shown that the sea surface temps are going up worldwide, then I would believe it.

The funny thing is we are overdue for a lot of volcanic activity these days, and it would only take couple of conventional volcanoes or one super volcano to make us wish for global warming.


Calling Old Hick a right wing nut is probably a compliment in his eyes.

It's hard to respond sensibly to someone asking if global warming could be a good thing.

Not really, the global temperature could drop more than 5 degrees F (double digit decreases for a supervolcano), due to volcanic activity. That happened in the 14th century when global temps dropped about 11 degrees F resulting in drastic changes in agriculture, exploration and was a direct contributor to the Black Plague in Europe. Before the Little Ice age, agriculture could feed everyone in Europe, afterwards there was famine because many of the crops were inhibited by the lower temps.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [vecchia capra] [ In reply to ]
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vecchia capra wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
vecchia capra wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
Old Hickory wrote:
We're pretty happy about the extreme rain from Irma and other wet weather patterns experienced this year. Could it be that this change is a good thing? Can that be a possibility with global warming? Good things?


nice troll.

what is it with the right-wing nuts and their knee jerk response to all things to do with global warming? I've tried to figure this out and the only thing I can come up with is that Al Gore's involvement in this issue turned it into a political thing. I'm sure you and jwbeuk would deny it's political for you, but there is such a consistent link now between die-hard Republicans and anti-global warming advocates that it's impossible to ignore.

Here's a suggestion: think for yourselves with an independent mind for a change.


Nice jump right into insults. I have always believed that the first to use insults is usually in the wrong, thank you for keeping that belief alive.

The reality is that much of the data is so hosed up that no one can really say whether or not there has been global warming at all. All of the Australian numbers were just revised downward because they were using the wrong calculations in processing the raw data. None of the US data factors in urban growth over the decades, the temps were taken from rural airports or smaller airports in the 1960s which are either now surrounded by buildings and parking lots or newer airports with more concrete and bigger parking lots. Many of the Russian weather locations went dark in the 1990s, which changed the raw data input but I have never seen a real means of factoring in that missing data in any of the research that I have seen.

The truth is the only real way to determine global warming is sea surface temps, which are taken in much more varied locations daily by every Navy ship in the fleets. The ocean does not change like airport locations do over time. If it is shown that the sea surface temps are going up worldwide, then I would believe it.

The funny thing is we are overdue for a lot of volcanic activity these days, and it would only take couple of conventional volcanoes or one super volcano to make us wish for global warming.


Calling Old Hick a right wing nut is probably a compliment in his eyes.

It's hard to respond sensibly to someone asking if global warming could be a good thing.


Not really, the global temperature could drop more than 5 degrees F (double digit decreases for a supervolcano), due to volcanic activity. That happened in the 14th century when global temps dropped about 11 degrees F resulting in drastic changes in agriculture, exploration and was a direct contributor to the Black Plague in Europe. Before the Little Ice age, agriculture could feed everyone in Europe, afterwards there was famine because many of the crops were inhibited by the lower temps.

It does not follow from what you just wrote that warmer and warmer is therefore better.

This paper estimates that by the 2080s, with no mitigation of current trends, about 60% of plants and 35% of animals will lose 50% of their climatic range. It's not all about humans. But I guess you could give a rat's ass about coral reefs, or Antarctic penguins, or polar bears, or the effects of insect population booms on local flora, or a myriad of other changes to the earth's ecosystems.

Agiculture will be negatively affected...see here.

And by the way, if the 'Atlantic conveyor' is interrupted by the melting ice cap and Greenland ice, it could send Europe and North America into much colder temperatures. See here.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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===============
Proud member of the MSF (Maple Syrup Mafia)
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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I was watching a little TV last night and caught the beginning of the Celebrity Telethon for the Texas relief effort. I thought this is great helping people, and maybe will get to see some good entertainment. Starts off with - Singer Stevie Wonder , “Anyone who believes that there’s no such thing as global warming must be blind or unintelligent.” They made the relief cause political. I was done.





Rahm Emanuel’s cynical advice to “never let a crisis go to waste.”

Weather historian Roger Pielke, Jr., says 14 Category 4-5 hurricanes made landfall along U.S. coasts, during the 44-year period between 1926 and 1969. In the ensuing 47 years, 1970 to 2017, just four struck the U.S. mainland, including Harvey. Some, like the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys, were incredibly powerful.

NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division counts 10 Category 4-5 monsters between 1920 and 1969 (50 years), but only four since then. Either way, it’s a huge reduction




1. Are Texas major hurricanes dependent on an unusually warm Gulf?
Examined all of the major hurricane (Cat 3+) strikes in Texas since 1870 and plotted them as red dots on the time series of sea surface temperature variations over the western Gulf of Mexico. As can be seen, major hurricanes don’t really care whether the Gulf is above average or below average in temperature:



Hurricane Irma is a big bad storm, like other big bad storms. Six awkward facts:
  1. It’s only the 7th most intense at landfall in US history.
  2. It formed over water that was two degrees cooler than normal,
  3. 1893, 1933, 1950, 1995, and 2005 had more Accumulated Cyclone Energy by Sept 10.
  4. In 1933 two hurricanes hit the US in just 24 hours
  5. In 1893, 1909, 2004 there were three Cat 3+ landfalls in US (blame climate change).
  6. NOAA itself says there’s no evidence anyone can detect that greenhouse gas emissions have an effect on hurricanes.

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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [eb] [ In reply to ]
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The reality is that much of the data is so hosed up that no one can really say whether or not there has been global warming at all.
Unsubstantiated assertion.

......

Very good point-by-point refutation of talking points. Kudos.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [getcereal] [ In reply to ]
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I think most people agree that using individual weather events to argue for or against global warming is asinine. So I agree with you there. Equally your small data set of Cat 3+ hurricanes hitting the Texas coast and looking at the Gulf water temperature is also pretty meaningless. But as Halvard said earlier, if you have some data worth publishing that refutes global warming and its effects, go ahead and publish it in a well respected academic journal.

By the way, why did you say Stevie Wonder was making it political? He just made a dumb statement. I didn't see anything political there. Or is this a case of you thinking that anyone who mocks a global warming denier is mocking a Republican or Trump? He probably was having a dig at Trump, but you see my point (hopefully)?
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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This thread comes out as two big hurricanes hit us. The debate is about correlation. A few minutes of google search refutes this. I am not refuting climate change just the media blaming everything that is bad weather related to being man made.

As for Stevie remark it was a few mins. into the show and he had to pick a side and attack- calling people "unintelligent". That to me is like the headline for what the tone of the show is going to be. It was a telethon for hurricane relief for us all to come together, not a moment to push a belief by insulting others.
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Re: Correlation between global warming and extreme rainstorms [getcereal] [ In reply to ]
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getcereal wrote:
This thread comes out as two big hurricanes hit us. The debate is about correlation. A few minutes of google search refutes this. I am not refuting climate change just the media blaming everything that is bad weather related to being man made.

As for Stevie remark it was a few mins. into the show and he had to pick a side and attack- calling people "unintelligent". That to me is like the headline for what the tone of the show is going to be. It was a telethon for hurricane relief for us all to come together, not a moment to push a belief by insulting others.

You do realize that the original article was talking about extreme rainstorms, which include more than just hurricanes?

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"
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