This should be a great season, though the loss of cancellara will be palpable. Boonen is looking very good and a third at world's demonstrates he is still a serious threat. I think degenkolb is going to be dangerous this season, Kristoff appears to have found his misplaced epo vials, and Sagan is Sagan. I am very excited to watch Sagan destroy the hopes and dreams of GVA every single day. cav is also looking very fit, if he toes the line always a threat.

Sagan, degenkolb, boonen

WC: Kristoff and Kiwat

For those of us in TV deprived countries like the US, NBC Sports Gold is now offering a live viewing package for only $20 a year. It will stream most of the classics (Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Paris-Roubaix) and the Tour, the Vuelta, Paris-Nice, Dauphine, Tour de Suisse, many more).

http://www.nbcsports.com/gold

Amazing trio, not only held onto the lead, but stretched it! With a very tough chase group bearing down.

No tactics to analyze, GVA had the best legs. Game over.

2 days left!

Also, who here wants to do a season-long pick'em series going from Het Nieuwsblad to Liege like we have done for 2015 and 2016? I need at least ten other participants before i'd organize it like I did previous years.

My personal picks:

Podium: Sagan, GvA, Vanmarcke
Wildcards: Benoot and Boonen

Holy Crap, I want your crystal ball!
Nice call

Obviously most guys are coming off large training blocks (Sagan three weeks in the mountains) so not too much to glean. Sort of tacky to attack after the crash with 62 k's left. If Sagan can pull that much and still hang at the end after a huge training block he is going to be dangerous in a few weeks. You can always tell when guys have a lot of training fatigue, they just have no pop in their sprint. My guess is Sagan was truly using this as a training race, he was taking some massive pulls for no real reason. Even in the last few k's there was no reason to pull, the gap was close to a minute.

Well shit... I spaced out on this. I now have 2 kids and we were in Florida all week.

This is "kollac" speaking btw.

Just watching the replay. At least slugging back Belgian beers at 9pm is OK vs. doing the same before lunch:D

...You can always tell when guys have a lot of training fatigue, they just have no pop in their sprint...

And their interviewing skills go all to hell: http://nos.nl/...a-tweede-plaats.html.

Awesome how the front group came together. Good old fashion aggressive racing

And their interviewing skills go all to hell: http://nos.nl/...a-tweede-plaats.html.

SEP!!!!!!
Nice seeing Cannondale up there. JV is quietly putting some pieces in place.
Do we still have You Tube for KBK today or do I have to do the dodge the pop up dance?

I saw some criticism on this particular interview but you should take the context into consideration. Just seconds before, in the Sporza mobile studio, they were told that Sagan would not make it to the mobile studio for an interview because he was not feeling well. Supposedly, he also ran straight to the toilet right after the finish. So the information the journalist (Karl Van Nieuwkerke in the mobile studio, and Renaat Schotte at the podium) had received was not correct. That's where Schotte was asking Sagan about his health problems, trying to figure out what it was all about, but then Sagan wasn't quite sure what he was talking about.

Sagan is on another level... I don't understand WHY they take turns when he is in the group. F THAT... u are THAt strong then u pull and I take my chances on the final sprint or in 2-3k solo attack.

Fabian used to do the same but nobody pulled for him lol

And this: gummy bears ftw?

http://cyclocosm.tumblr.com/post/157736992262/today-in-peter-sagan-does-weird-crapan-entire

and there's this gem: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtwlVEmLwFs

perhaps for the sponsors? that was a full of win moment

not actually sure if it's gummy bears

------------------------------------------

Also, I think Stuyvens will place prominently in a race this year. He was close at E3 last year, after all.

Great start to the classics!


"In both Omloop and KBK, I don't seem to recall there being any other Bora riders with him late in the race! "

He's used to it. :)

Truly, Stuyven was taking such strong pulls for the Sagan group, you could see Sagan relax. And then, well, that was that.

I think Sagan adds 1 or 2 kph if he shaves and cuts his hair.

Great start to the classics!


Interesting that with 4 riders BMC could not close that 30 - 40 second gap down from the leaders in the finale at KBK - but they had a number in the group, SKY (Stannard I think) etc . ., who would NOT contribute.

Great start to the classics!


Indeed it was a good start to the REAL bike racing season! :)

Sagan appears to be on-form. He admitted in the post-race interview at Omloop that, these are "training races", and he's not to worked up about results - but a 2nd and a win in the first two significant races of the European season, shows he's in far better form than he's letting on.

One thing that may become an issue as they progress through the Spring season - team support for Sagan. In both Omloop and KBK, I don't seem to recall there being any other Bora riders with him late in the race! The other teams with favourites - SKY, Quick-Step, BMC, Trek, and a few others had multiple riders up front deep into both races.

Interesting that with 4 riders BMC could not close that 30 - 40 second gap down from the leaders in the finale at KBK - but they had a number in the group, SKY (Stannard I think) etc . ., who would NOT contribute.

Also nice to see new faces in the front group. Benoot, Stuyven, Jules.

They couldnt close the gap because the motos were way too close and it really bothers me. If you watch the footage at the point where the 5man break forms, Sagan is in front for the whole time drafting from a moto. Later on, they always have 2motos in front whereas the chasers have only a side-moto. This annoys me......

They couldnt close the gap because the motos were way too close and it really bothers me. If you watch the footage at the point where the 5man break forms, Sagan is in front for the whole time drafting from a moto. Later on, they always have 2motos in front whereas the chasers have only a side-moto. This annoys me......

Hi Brooke,

Yes, you are correct. I paid $20 for basically a couple of pre-Tour races. I've asked them for a refund.

Not a customer friendly move by NBC Sports. Advertise a special then tell the customer it is valid until the biggest race starts...

Jules? Who's that?

Stuyven is going to win some big races, he caused the key split in OHN. I watched OHN again as I only saw the last 20k, wow Sagan literally pulled for 50k. As contador says style is more important than winning. It's like 2011 roubaix, I remember that race for Cancellara riding through the entire field, making the cobbles look like he was riding on glass.

The Moto's played a part. But a bigger issue was that the chasers only had 3.5 BMC guys pulling and 15odd passengers. The leaders were working very well together and you could argue that pretty much all of them were simply stronger than the 3 poor BMC chaps who did the lion's share of the chase (with GvA only doing quick turns in hopes of saving some.juice for the presumed catch).

i didnt see Saturday's result or anything, but what is the interview w Sagan and another rider, and Sagan goes "why didnt you attack". What was situation there?

-thx for these threads. don't always get to watch the classics but love the commentary on it from you guys!

If Sep was really waiting for the final sprint then he knew he would be second or third... dude hasn't win a classic sprint like never LOL

Strade Bianche
Stybar
KWIATKOWSKI
Sagan

Let's get this post back on front page where it belongs.

Stride Bianche coming up (semi-classic that deserves better). Stybar and Kwiatkowski haven't shown much while GvA, Sagan and Valvede are all going good. Going to be a touch pick.

Except of course, that time he beat Boonen and Flecha in a 3 man sprint... at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. ;-) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ss82UA9j1RA

Let's get this post back on front page where it belongs.

Stride Bianche coming up (semi-classic that deserves better). Stybar and Kwiatkowski haven't shown much while GvA, Sagan and Valvede are all going good. Going to be a touch pick.

The year Cadel got 7th, you mean?

Battenkill 2014... ahhh what awesome shit show!


looks like right about the place i ate it....awesome fun day though

I like Brambilla for this one. Wellens and Stybar to round out the podium. Dumoulin as a wildcard.

More Sagan Gold: http://www.cyclingnews.com/...-in-a-mixed-peloton/

"I don't think I'll use them…"
"No, not for safety. Safety left cycling a while ago..."
"Every race is different; nobody knows how I'll go tomorrow. For sure someone will win."
"If it rains, it rains for everyone. I don't know if that changes things. It could be more dangerous; the group could split. I've never raced Strade Bianche in the rain. It will change things for sure."

Tomorrow should be interesting, as always it tends to favor those who dare. Hard to count out GVA, Sagan, or even the likes of Nibali or Brambilla.

Sagan
Nibali
Brambilla

WC: Felline or Kwiat

, Sagan, Cav, all the big names are doing well.

Can there be a one day race to follow this Saturday? Paris-Nice, Tirenno-Adriatico . nbc gold, good for PN i reckon.
(ps-this thread should be on the front page until late april at least, and that's what i'm doing, dammit)

Tirenno, though not a classic, has been quite fun to watch this week. GVA has to be one of the most self absorbed cyclists, he has twice this week stated he is "one of the best classics riders" somewhat ironically after Sagan winning the stage and not talking about himself....though admittedly you are never quite sure what Sagan is talking about.

Lots of on form sprinters right now, Greipel looks like he is on exceptional form, Demare i think will be very dangerous. Degenkolb seems to be right on the cusp of good form. Groenewegen has been sprinting well, Sagan, Cav, all the big names are doing well. MSR should be great. I think Gavaria will be the danger, anyone who watches track knows he is a phenom. In fact i am surprised people did not believe he could ride off the front of a race with 500m to go, he does that all the time in track sprints where he turns the pace up so high nobody has the chance to sprint. With this many sprinters i wonder if it will change team tactics and they really rip up the Cipressa and Poggio? Possibly some collusion between GVA/Sagan/Kiwat? Thomas taking a flyer?

No one is getting away, and Sagan sprints from a small pack. No place for GvA and Kwiatek to shine. There were two really exciting MSR in recent memory, one in 2011 and the other in 2013; the others were just meh

Goss? Meh - he never won anything big before or after.

But Ciolek? Yeah, that was awesome. A tremendous talent that never fully materialized, though. And he's already retired!

unfortunately not the situation

Contador is living up the tradition of attacking the hell out of the last stage of Paris-Nice. Infiltrates into front group; gap of 40 seconds with 25 km left

Gotta love his racing spirit regardless of his past

It's become a 290 km procession to the bottom of the Poggio, and riders inevitably regroup at the bottom. In the old days, you had grand tour winners slugging it out with classics specialists (and the overlap between the two was significant back then).

Thinking Joe D takes a shot at this stage in PN. He lives in Nice, loves the roads and pulled the plug pretty early yesterday so if he's got anything left he'll may be in the front group. Here's hoping, anyway.

Good for Sergio.

what has changed? specialization of riders? financial incentives? Lance's "the Tour is everything" approach?
I am pretty new to watching the spring races. maybe the 6-7 years. the cobbles are great but MSR does seem dull. duller than LBL. almost FW dull.

The same could be said for LBL. Once an exciting race even during the EPO years, as evidenced by Vino stampeding from 40km out. Now you have a glorified 25-person sprint up the final incline the way Amstel was.

That was an amazing P-N finale!
De la cruz passes contador with metres to go and wins the stage AND the time bonuses, Henao struggles across the line with the sprinters and wins by 2 seconds, GREAT STUFF!

Man, this makes me miss the days with a good Frank Vandenbroucke. VDB vs Michele Bartoli on the La Redoute... the two favorites throwing down a bomb who was faster... VDB ended up killing everyone later in the race. That was the best LBL ever (together with that time a relatively modest rider from my hometown won it). VDB, gone too soon... :-(

There is no love between Trek and QST today, they should have agreed to have De La Cruz help Contador out and then give him the stage win, instead he sat on for 50k then then took the time bonus.

Cannondale just seems a shambles this year, more than most. Formolo and Craddock DNF. Joe D coming back from injury. Rolland seemingly regressing a bit. Woods kind of doing OK

The only thing they can take to the bank is Sep in a Classic.

That was Eric van Lancker in 1990. Couldn't find any video of it though. But he also won the Amstel Gold Race (in 1989).

Well, VDB did announce in an interview ahead of the race that he'd attack on La Redoute, though. Maybe not exactly where but it was telegraphed ahead of time, he did it, and smoked 'em. Dope or not, it was awesome.

Attention now shifts this week to Milan-San Remo - the longest of the classics at almost 300km and one of the trickiest races of the year to predict and handicap!

I always find it a fascinating race - typically not much happens before they reach the Cipressa with about 30k to go, but then from there it can be high-drama all the way to the finish line with the outcome in doubt right to the line.

Both the Cipressa and the Poggio the other climb that comes with just 6km are not that long, but with nearly 300km of racing in the legs, they can really take a toll on riders. There is then the tricky twisting and turning descent of the Poggio right into San Remo and the about 2km drag-race from there to the finish. What's interesting is due to unusual nature of the race - in the finale mixing it up you will usually have a mixture of contenders still in the game - pure sprinters, strong-men and all-rounders, and even some climber/GC types all going for it. That's why it's such a hard race to predict. Just because, say a Mark Cavendish a pure sprinter and former winner makes it to the finale, is no guarantee of a win if it does come down to real sprint at the end. Cav like the other pure sprinters will often have no real lead-out, and they have WAY more miles in their legs then they are used to - in other words is ability to really sprint they way he is used to is diminished significantly.

More recently, it's been more of a race for the strong-men-all-rounder types - and Fabian Cancellara's stellar record here of making it to the finale regularly and being on the podium a number of times and winning it out-right one year is a testament to that.

In that light - an on-form Peter Sagan, has to be a good pick for the win. He has the fitness to go 300K, can mix-it up and win from various scenarios, and has great bike handling skills to master the descent of the Poggio (or last year avoiding a crash in the final 1K). Sagan for the win!

Who do you like?

The big problem with this race is the finish line is 1k too far, if they moved it up it would be a much more dynamic race and Cancellara would probably have 4 wins. That last 1k is just enough to neutralize any late attacks and often the one who dares does not win in this race as Cancellara is all to aware.

Last year was incredibly slow towards the finish and i suspect that will not happen again, teams like Sky, UAE, and BMC need the race to be very hard. Additionally Sagan wants a hard finish so Bora also has a vested interest to drop the pure sprinters and hurt the more dynamic sprinters such as Gavaria, Kristoff, Demare, Degenkolb and company. I don't think Cav is seriously racing this spring, he has stated multiple times he is trying to take it easy and recover from last year. Cav has to be in peak form and weight to not get dropped.

Dan Loyd, commenting on Sagan, suggested that he has developed even more as a rider this year evidenced by his ability to hang with the GC riders yesterday while GVA/Kiwat/Boonen were all 1+ minute back. I think Sagan's ability to hang on steeper climbs and sprint alongside Gavaria makes him the most dangerous rider for MSR, but Sagan does not want Gavaria/Demare/Kiristoff on his wheel. With all this preamble here is what i think develops:

Sky has to go long, possibly Thomas goes on the Cipressa to set up Kiwat, similar to last year. Gilbert decides to make a move, drawing out a few other attackers, at this point its strung out going down the Cipressa. Up the poggio the pace is extremely hard, some attacks and Sagan gets on the coat tails, pushes the descent. Reduced bunch sprint of 10-12 riders, main field right behind.

Sagan
GVA
Valverde (why not)

MSR is about 2.5k too long (out of a possible 2.8k).

Sagan has to make up his damn mind. Either go all out at the middle of Poggio or wait for the sprint. No middle ground. He's good at freelancing, and can get a free tow for most of the flat section

Truth is, a 3.7% hill just isn't that selective to these guys. I'd love to see something different pan out, but i'm not holding my breath

Created a league on Velogames.com for the Spring Classics

League Name: Slowtwitch
League Code: 14164018

I think you're right that Bouhanni will be a factor. His win at Noekere was pretty solid despite the lack of competition. But I can't put him on the podium because he's a petulant twerp.

Podium:
Degenkolb
Gaviria
Sagan

WC
Bouhanni
Demare

For Gilbert, does he has the potential to win, absolutely, but his chances reside in the perfect set of circumstances unfolding. His talent level is quite high for a wildcard but i think it is justified. Kiwat would be another borderline wildcard, likely has not chance, but if he did win it would not be completely shocking either.

I think the only rider who *doesn't* require a particular set of circumstances is Sagan. He's the only one who can win from almost any situation, e.g. he can win like Cancellara (long range), Gilbert (medium long) or Cav (closer). Even being the most marked guy out there.

This is my longstanding beef with the use of the "Wildcard" status. It shouldn't be used to merely extend your podium list because you want to list more than 3 likely winners. Demare won MSR last year, and is on form this year. Puh-lease. I'll *maybe* grant Bouhanni since he typically does a disappearing act immediately after demonstrating great promise.

Their "Spring Classics" game is a lot of fun.

You need to enter by 10:00 CET on Saturday (3/18) in order to get in on MSR.

This is my longstanding beef with the use of the "Wildcard" status. It shouldn't be used to merely extend your podium list because you want to list more than 3 likely winners. Demare won MSR last year, and is on form this year. Puh-lease. I'll *maybe* grant Bouhanni since he typically does a disappearing act immediately after demonstrating great promise.

Wildcard is to take a flyer on someone no one really expects to crash the party, like Hayman at Paris-Roubaix. Someone in the early break of anonymous Pro Continental riders that everyone chuckles over, but somehow manages to still have 2:00 with 10K to go. The early-career great hope that petered out into a dreary career as a domestique showing flashes of greatness at just the right time (Hayman).

Podium:
Demare
GVA
P. Sagan (don't want to, but have to at this point)

Wildcard:
Boasson Hagen
Tim Wellens

Sagan
Gaviria
Stuyven

GvA
Degenkolb as WC's

Sagan sitting too much to the front at this juncture of the race

at least at wasn't Alaphilippe...

Damn, Sagan started sprinting from way too far out. Think he could have held on if he started at 150-175m as opposed to 225-250m like he did

Kwiatkowski should be commended for having the reserves to close that gap, but damn...

Sagan needed to pull a Cancellara and just sit up, force them to ride. He is great for bike racing....he actually races his bike.

Kwiatkowski might nip this; i really don't want to see that

Damn, Sagan started sprinting from way too far out. Think he could have held on if he started at 150-175m as opposed to 225-250m like he did

Exactly. He had the win if he just waited a little longer. Sagan has always gone early at msr, see 2013.

I was actually rooting for allaphilippe, if only because qs needs a big win this spring or they're going to have a hard time justifying big sponsorship next year.

LuisDF wrote:

for a moment it was a small gap between him a KW, I think he tho that between the sprint and that gap he will win it.

yeah, he started the sprint to early :-/

damn, what a messed up sport,


It seems that way, but there is a lot of respect and acknowledgment among the riders that this is the way it is."

I know, just feel bad for Sagan when this happens and it's a testament to his pre eminence that it does. Like I said, they all know he's king of the jungle.

Kwiatowski said as much in a post MSR interview - that he was going to take a couple of weeks to recover and train, skip the Cobbled races and be back for the Ardennes - saying it's too much to keep going full gas from MSR all the way through to the Ardennes races

If you read and believe KW's post race comments, he intentionally let that gap develop betting Sagan would see it and start his sprint. Taking those comments into consideration along with how Sagan stalled at the end, I think it's pretty hard to argue he didn't sprint a bit early. KW baited him to do it and it worked out.

I hate seeing Sagan lose (really ever) when he is so strong and does so much work, however he wins races for the same reasons he comes in second. He is going to have to continue to operate in much the same way for the foreseeable future because he chose to go with Bora and a comparably weak team who won't be able to support him. I assume it was purely financial and they would let him bring his little posse of friends/teamates. Could you imagine if he had an arsenal like QS or Sky to support him? Would be scary, however I honestly don't think he finds that appealing - seems he, like Contador, takes pride in making the races almost as much as winning them. He likes to float around and try to find ways to win or lose on his own.

Kwiat is clearly back to his old form.

On a side note i do wonder if Sagan might try his hand at Fleche Wallonne or Amstel Gold, he clearly has the ability, but can he extend his form for a few more weeks past Roubaix and still race the TDF?

because he chose to go with Bora and a comparably weak team who won't be able to support him.

After watching the final 20k of MSR again it was interesting to see how Kiwat actually could not close down the gap, Alaphillippe had to close it down after Kiwat failed to get on Sagan's wheel. Quite interesting as well that GVA could not follow.

Now we are on to DDV, a semi-classic, some definite climbing, but not at the same level as races to come, who do you have for the podium? It seems a lot of the favorites tend to sit in during this race, possibly still recovering from MSR and saving some for the following weekend. I think we will see a small group get away on the final climb at 10k to go, possibly Sep/Stybar getting on the podium. Not sure if Sagan will seriously race DDV, he will probably want to cruise and prepare for E3 then GW two days later.

On a side note i do wonder if Sagan might try his hand at Fleche Wallonne or Amstel Gold, he clearly has the ability, but can he extend his form for a few more weeks past Roubaix and still race the TDF?

Have to differ on the team support thing. I think he'd love to have a gang like Quick Step or Sky to roll with all day, until which time he deems right to release the fury. But at the same time, I bet he doesn't follow team direction or strategy too well. Anything beyond "ride for Peto" might not sink in.

Sagan used to do Amstel instead of Roubaix. I think he was on the podium there in '12 or '13. He could certainly win it now that they don't finish on top of the Cauberg. But I think Fleche would prove a bit much for him.

:
Coquard (will let the wildcard committee decide if this qualifies)

Hey y'all.. I noticed a hole in my schedule and just booked a flight to Brussels next week..staying in Ghent, and going to spectate the Tour of Flanders.
Anyone ever been and have any suggestions? I'm going solo. Bummed that the sportive is sold out on saturday.

ride....drink beer......repeat...the Kopp......truly nuts

E3 Harelbeke

I got Sagan, GvA, Stybar,
Rowe and Benoot

This is not the move. GvA should not be there.

Naessen has a good kick; let's see what happens

That whining over nothing is going to hunt him for longggg time... (TJ)

as of right now the teams that look lost are Katusha and Trek.

Let see how Flanders and PRBX play out but hard to bet against Sagan, GVP and prob Sep/KW

You are spot on with your disappointments. I expected Tony Martin/Kristoff to be a formidable team, and what happened to Stuyven today? Such a bummer for Dege...Goes to show you how guys like Drucker and Oss don't get nearly the respect they deserve on these races.