I view this performance with healthy skepticism on two fronts:
1) AC didn't merely set the VAM record, he destroyed it. No matter if the equations are flawed or not or whether the climb was short, he destroyed a record much like Mike Powell did in the long jump and Michael Johnson in the 200 meter dash in 1996.
That said, AC's numbers on, I believe, the Mortirolo in 2008 Giro were off the VAM charts as well. While not record setting, he was climbing with wings 14 months ago.
2) This performance also says to me that Lance Armstrong from any year of his 7 wins couldn't beat AC. Lance's best VAM was from a stand alone TT, not a stage.
Finally, if, as I hope, AC is as clean as a whistle, we could be looking at a rider of historic proportions. Contador is 3 for his last 3 GT's. At 26 he's not even in the 27-33 sweet spot where GT riders normally hit their peak.
So say AC enters two GT's a year for the next 5 years (16 chances counting the Vuelta this year) and he "only" wins 50% of them, he could well wind up with another 8-10 GT victories to go along with the three (possibly four) he already has. That would be a career total of, what, maybe 12 or 14, which is more than Eddy Merckx's 11 total.
Yes, there are a lot of factors involved there, but it is mind-boggling to think of the possibilities.
Bob
1) AC didn't merely set the VAM record, he destroyed it. No matter if the equations are flawed or not or whether the climb was short, he destroyed a record much like Mike Powell did in the long jump and Michael Johnson in the 200 meter dash in 1996.
That said, AC's numbers on, I believe, the Mortirolo in 2008 Giro were off the VAM charts as well. While not record setting, he was climbing with wings 14 months ago.
2) This performance also says to me that Lance Armstrong from any year of his 7 wins couldn't beat AC. Lance's best VAM was from a stand alone TT, not a stage.
Finally, if, as I hope, AC is as clean as a whistle, we could be looking at a rider of historic proportions. Contador is 3 for his last 3 GT's. At 26 he's not even in the 27-33 sweet spot where GT riders normally hit their peak.
So say AC enters two GT's a year for the next 5 years (16 chances counting the Vuelta this year) and he "only" wins 50% of them, he could well wind up with another 8-10 GT victories to go along with the three (possibly four) he already has. That would be a career total of, what, maybe 12 or 14, which is more than Eddy Merckx's 11 total.
Yes, there are a lot of factors involved there, but it is mind-boggling to think of the possibilities.
Bob
Last edited by:
Macho Grande: Jul 20, 09 21:50