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Electoral college nightmare: 269-269

 
   
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mopdahl

Jun 10, 12 8:09

Post #1 of 14 (1010 views)
Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 Quote | Reply
I was playing around with the NY Times Electoral map: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map and now believe that a EC tie is well within the realm of possibility. If Obama pulls PA, OH, WI, NH but somehow loses VA & CO (I'm fairly sure that NV, IA & FL will go Repub) we'll have a tie.

If you thought the aftermath of 2000 was a nightmare/problem for the country (putting aside the disaster that was Bush, I'm referring to the media/court carnival), just wait for 2012.

FWIW I think its still a long shot, as I can't see NH going for Obama if he were to lose VA & CO (and given the current polls + demographics in those states I can't see them going red at this point).
____________
“There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.” John Rogers


Glade Runner

Jun 10, 12 8:13

Post #2 of 14 (1002 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [mopdahl] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
One or more of those states will be really close, ala Florida.
Soros and his SecState drive are looking more and more like genius...


It's simple, but it isn't easy.


Duffy

Jun 10, 12 8:33

Post #3 of 14 (987 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [mopdahl] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
Don't worry about it. It won't be close.


____________________________________________________
"This hip-hoppers ended up tightly connected with basketball along with highway dances."


dave_w

Jun 10, 12 8:38

Post #4 of 14 (984 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [mopdahl] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
   If it's that close do you and BK both go? :)


YaHey

Jun 10, 12 11:01

Post #5 of 14 (919 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [mopdahl] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
Mittens is going to pull in Rubio as his VP to try and capture FL. With Florida, he has a solid chance. But he'll still need OH and PA to win. Possibly WI would make a difference. No matter what, it will be close.


mopdahl

Jun 10, 12 11:41

Post #6 of 14 (899 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [Duffy] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
If you are so sure, shall we bet on it?
____________
“There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.” John Rogers


Duffy

Jun 10, 12 12:07

Post #7 of 14 (889 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [mopdahl] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
I don't gamble. Sorry.


____________________________________________________
"This hip-hoppers ended up tightly connected with basketball along with highway dances."


oldandslow

Jun 11, 12 7:28

Post #8 of 14 (749 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [mopdahl] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
Unlikely, specifically, Nevada is more likely to go for Obama than Colorado (based on 2008 results, present polling, demographic trends). If it is close (which can be endlessly debated), 269-269 is extremely unlikely. Go to 538.com, there is a distribution plot of probable electoral votes for each candidate, with a big dip right at 269.


Eppur si muove

Jun 11, 12 8:02

Post #9 of 14 (728 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [dave_w] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
dave_w wrote:
If it's that close do you and BK both go? :)
I was thinking about that too. I can imagine it now--the Electors cast their votes on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, and it's a tie! We're all left sitting on the edges of our seats to find out who stays in the LR and who leaves until January, when the next President is chosen in the House and the next VP is chosen in the Senate. There's also the possibility that the President and VP would be of different parties, but I suppose only the presidential choice would matter for purposes of this LR battle.


triengineer

Jun 11, 12 9:48

Post #10 of 14 (689 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [mopdahl] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
That would be awesome, and then make them share the WH. One gets the left wing the other the right wing and all decisions they both have to sign off on!


toto

Jun 11, 12 12:17

Post #11 of 14 (643 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [mopdahl] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
Presidential elections don't have to even possibly result in an Electoral College tie, then decided by Congress.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in more than 3/4ths of the states that now are just 'spectators' and ignored after the primaries.

When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.

The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.

In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: AZ – 67%, CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.

The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.


NationalPopularVote
Follow National Popular Vote on Facebook via NationalPopularVoteInc


LorenzoP

Jun 11, 12 12:31

Post #12 of 14 (633 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [mopdahl] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
anyone setup a bet with me so I get to be the one that gets out?


TheForge

Jun 11, 12 12:41

Post #13 of 14 (629 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [toto] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
Who the fuck are you?


dave_w

Jun 11, 12 13:07

Post #14 of 14 (609 views)
Re: Electoral college nightmare: 269-269 [toto] [In reply to] Quote | Reply
I disagree

   
 
 
 
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