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Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10?
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tri@thlete
Mar 21, 12 13:15
Post #1 of 39
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Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10?
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Hi STers - I will be running in the Paris marathon in about a month and really want to go for a Boston spot (sub 3:10 in my AG). My best open marathon is 3:18 in London a few years ago and I've done about 4 other marathons + 5 IM's the past 3/4 years.
I've been looking at the Macmillan calculator and based off my best Half marathon (1:29 - 2 years ago), I can run a 3:07. Not sure if that's true or what. I've been trying to do all my weekend long runs at 7:15-7:25/mi pace. It's pretty tough, but I've held on for runs up to 17 miles. Last weekend, I ripped myself w/ 1:15 @ 7:25/mi, 30 min @ 7:15, 15 min @ 7. Been doing hill and long interval work for the past 4-6 weeks, so feeling stronger and a little lighter.
Any thoughts on how I should tackle Paris? (it's relatively flat, but huge crowds)
Thanks! Joe
morey000
Mar 21, 12 13:31
Post #2 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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2 years ago is a long time in the running world for McMillan to predict.
And- I don't believe that you can predict race pace off of training paces. Perhaps if you were also tracking heart rate and you know that you can be at BQ pace in Zone 3 and are putting in 50-60mpw.
Not sure how long before Paris, but if you have time to get in a half mary tune-up race, that will tell you a lot.
if not, and your goal is to BQ- then set your garmin Virtual Partner to BQ pace. Go out just a touch faster than that pace- and hold it, for 26 miles. Granted, this is a 'go for broke' strategy- but
you'll find out if you can BQ... or not.
tri@thlete
Mar 21, 12 13:48
Post #3 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [morey000]
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Thanks! I'll use the Garmin as a rough guide, but know what points of the race I need to hit at what times. I don't completely trust the Garmin b/c there might be some tunnels. My friend thought he was 3-4 min under 3 hours, but the Garmin shut out and he ended up 3:01.
I agree that 2 years is a long time. Before I did the 3:18, my previous best marathon was 3:29. I was consumed doing IM's and didn't do that many standalone marathons.
I'll go for broke, might as well...thinking of holding 3:10 pace the first half, then try and crank it up the 2nd half. The 3rd 10k always seems to be a tough spot, so hopefully I can push through that and gut my way to the end.
NoBrakes
Mar 21, 12 14:02
Post #4 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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I'd do a 5km or 10km TT later this week and plug that into the calculator or the Daniel's tables and see what marathon pace that predicts.
fred_h
Mar 21, 12 14:59
Post #5 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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Keep in mind the profile of the race as well.
you can expect the same pace if 1 mile is uphill and another mile is downhill...
Fred.
morey000
Mar 21, 12 15:18
Post #6 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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Well, you've only got 24 more days- so a HM race is probably not a good idea at this point. Looks like a beautiful course- and fairly flat. a little up in the beginning and a nice little incline in the early 20's and downhill to the end.
for me- my brain stops being able to do simple math at about mile 5- so I totally rely on my Garmin. But if a pace tatoo and a timing watch works for you- then by all means... Just make sure you have the autopause turned off- so your time will be correct, even if you distance isn't.
If you're on the hairy edge and BQ is your goal, I like the 'go for broke' strategy. For the Paris course- you might want to go out AT BQ pace for the 1st 10K as it's a little up hill, then try to pick up some time through the downhills in the middle- getting enough ahead to handle that last hill in the 20's. You'll either be able to hold pace... or not. Granted, you risk having a worse time overall by potentially going out too fast- but at least you went down swinging. Can't criticize that- unless you pussy out and can't handle a little pain.
DC Pattie
Mar 21, 12 15:22
Post #7 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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Yes. I ran it in 2009. Very fast course. Just know that you'll be shoulder-to-shoulder the entire time.
SpicedRum
Mar 21, 12 15:30
Post #8 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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if you don't have the garmin on autostop (stops recording when you fall below a certain pace, ie, at a stoplight...it also stops timing when you lose satellite connection), then it will keep the time running even if you lose a satellite. The distance might not be spot on (but it wouldn't be anyway), but the time will still be running and you can use KM markers on the course (assuming they have them) for that.
earthling
Mar 21, 12 15:34
Post #9 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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2 weeks out you want to aim for 22 miles at 3:10 pace. If you can nail that start a full on taper, hitting 2 - 1 weeks out with some tempo and L4 stuff, last week make sure you hit at least 1 good L5 sessions early in the week. For a flat race like Paris you should aim for an even pace, or even possibly a negative split. Whatever you don't expect to nail the last mile, unfortulately you have left it a couple of weeks too late.
If you can only do 19 miles at 3:10 pace 2 weeks out you may still be able to hit a sub 3:10 but you are going to have to give yourself a 1 week taper, and kill yourself for a week crossing your fingers your body can recover in time. Do not underestimate the value of carbo loading in this situation, make sure you hit race morning full or energy but with a fairly empty stomach. Be ready to suck up the pain and really try to put yourself in your zone during the race.
If you can't hit 19 miles at race pace 2 weeks out move on. You may still hit a very close time but its unlikely you will get 3:10.
Good luck.
Born to Tri - forced to work..........
kcb203
Mar 21, 12 16:52
Post #10 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [earthling]
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earthling wrote:
2 weeks out you want to aim for 22 miles at 3:10 pace. If you can nail that start a full on taper, hitting 2 - 1 weeks out with some tempo and L4 stuff, last week make sure you hit at least 1 good L5 sessions early in the week. For a flat race like Paris you should aim for an even pace, or even possibly a negative split. Whatever you don't expect to nail the last mile, unfortulately you have left it a couple of weeks too late.
If you can only do 19 miles at 3:10 pace 2 weeks out you may still be able to hit a sub 3:10 but you are going to have to give yourself a 1 week taper, and kill yourself for a week crossing your fingers your body can recover in time. Do not underestimate the value of carbo loading in this situation, make sure you hit race morning full or energy but with a fairly empty stomach. Be ready to suck up the pain and really try to put yourself in your zone during the race.
If you can't hit 19 miles at race pace 2 weeks out move on. You may still hit a very close time but its unlikely you will get 3:10.
Good luck.
A 22-mile marathon pace run two weeks before the race? Yikes, I'd never do a run like that even 3 or 4 weeks before the race. The recovery is almost like doing a full marathon. I ran a 3:13 to BQ with three 20-mile long runs at 8:10 or so, with a handful of 10-12 MP runs at 7:20-7:25.
WillyMFire
Mar 21, 12 18:36
Post #11 of 39
(2431 views)
Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [earthling]
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what are you smoking? this is by far the worst advice i've ever read on this forum
I've found If i can hold pace for 11 miles 3 weeks out on tired legs, im good to go on well tapered legs
"If he dies, he dies" -Ivan Drago
DTV
Mar 21, 12 18:56
Post #12 of 39
(2418 views)
Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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I got a BQ out of Hong Kong Marathon (just.. 3:06) and my last couple if years have been pretty similar to what you describe.
I did a Yasso 800 set (run 10x 800m interval with 400m rbi). Your time in interval 8 & 10 is your predicted marathon time.. Ie if you do it in 3mind 10 sec your marathon time is 3hr 10 min.
Worked spot on for me, but I've heard more expert runners are dubious on how accurate it is.
I agree with the go for it & succeed or blow up having tried your best advice.. Nothing to lose right
tri@thlete
Mar 22, 12 3:37
Post #13 of 39
(2335 views)
Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [DTV]
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Wow - this is great feedback guys. Thanks so much!
10x800 sounds pretty fun. The last 1.5 months I've been consistent about intervals of usually 3x8,10,12,15 min at 6:10-6:40/min pace (2:50-3:00 marathon pace). I can usually hold those painfully long intervals.
As for doing a 22 mile run at marathon pace that close to the race, I think it might do me more harm at this point. This weekend will be my last "long" run. Like I said, last weekend on my last 2 miles (on a 20 miler), I was able to hold 7 min/mile (3 hour marathon pace)....but this wasn't easy.
I've heard a lot of different views on Long Run's, for example if you are shooting for 7:30/mi race pace, you should do long runs at around 7:45-8 min/mi pace. I know this is generalizing, but in the past, when I did my 3:18 (7:33/mi pace and negative split the race 1:41/1:37), I was doing my long runs around 7:50-8:05/mi pace (3:29 pace). For Paris, I took a bit of a different approach and am trying to run my Long Runs as close or faster than my race pace.
Who knows what will happen on Race day! I guess that's the fun of racing! :) Most likely, I'll stick w/ the 3:10 pacers for the first half, then on the slightly flat/downhill middle part, I'll look to create some space and gain a few minutes, then see whatever I have left for the last 3-4 miles (includes a short hill at around mile 22).
Will let you guys know how it goes!
FJB
Mar 22, 12 3:52
Post #14 of 39
(2325 views)
Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [earthling]
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2 weeks out you want to aim for 22 miles at 3:10 pace.
For a minute there I thought you were serious.
You aren't serious, right?
ATL Dad
Mar 22, 12 4:21
Post #15 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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Not sure if you are a vet of big city races or not, but they are very difficult on pacing the first few miles. I've done over 30 marathons in most of the big US cities, and for a crowded course like NYC, it takes about 10k before you can really take control of your pacing due to the traffic. Chicago, Marine Corp, Disney, GA, Portland, are better, but still plan on at least 5k worth of maneuvering.
I'm not sure about Paris, but best strategy is to get to one side or the other of the street, try to find sidewalks or clear gutter spaces, and keep to your planned MP as much as possible. Don't get frustrated if your first mile split isn't on track. Just know that you can't control the start and you will have to make up for that time lost slowly.
I think your last workout is enough to get sub 3:10 on a good day. If the weather is right, you are rested and ready, then just hold steady MP as long as possible and then unleash what you have left over the final 10k or 5k depending upon how you feel. I think your half marathon time from two years ago should give you confidence that a 3:07 is possible, but I have the same PR for the half marathon and it doesn't always mean from one year to the next that you still have the same potential. Since you have been doing hill work, that equates to some additional leg strength, so hopefully you will have plenty left in the tank for that final push. I'd try to go out around 1:32 half, and no slower than 1:35. If you have a little slippage from miles 15-22, then your little bank will be gone at that point, but then if you are able to turn on any jets, you'll make up the time over the final 5k.
Good luck!
http://jmassieblog.blogspot.com
Saundo
Mar 22, 12 4:38
Post #16 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [ATL Dad]
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Thats good advice from ATL. The big 10 marathons are very crowded and that can totally shag up your time but unlike Boston, where everyone is running sub 4, you should be able to get in front of the majority of the crowds rather quickly just don't let yourself get bogged down in the slower crowds. And I don't know if they still have the cobblestone part of the Paris Marathon...be warned....it sucks.
tri@thlete
Mar 22, 12 8:30
Post #17 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [ATL Dad]
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Thanks ATL - really good advice. Really not that much I could do at this point, other than staying pretty fresh and healthy. I've done some pretty crowded races - NYC, London, and Paris. It is pretty crazy at the beginning. I have to say, NYC is well-oiled and you can really stay away from the crowds early.
I like your strategy. Looking at the course, definitely looks like I can gain time by being patient from miles 1-10 (eg: stick w/ the 3:10 guys up the short hills), gain some time from 10-20 (w/ the downhill and flat), then be patient from 20-22 (up the short hill), and then give it all I have until the end. Good thing they'll be giving out bottles instead of cups, I can carry the bottle and sip on water or even put a Nuun tablet for a bit of kick. I usually try and take a gel pretty early on (around 35-40 min) then around every 45 min afterwards. Hope the glycogen's hold up!
Thanks again guys!
tri@thlete
Mar 25, 12 13:23
Post #18 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [ATL Dad]
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Hi guys -
Today was my last long training run until Paris. I did:
2hr 30m
20.7 miles
pace: 2 hrs @ about 7:17-7:18/mi pace (appox. 3hr 11m marathon pace), pushed the next 30 min at 7:13-7:14/mi pace (approx. 3hr 9m marathon pace)
I slowly walked/jogged home so probably finished about 21 miles. The first few hours seemed pretty easy. I was cruising to about half marathon at 1hr 35m, then had to push a little to the 2 hour mark. Then tried to push the pace the final 30 min and REALLY had to push the final 15 min. That's 2 back/back weekends of 20 milers, now it's just going to be about rest, refining, and staying healthy. Like you guys all said, it's going to be REALLY close on that day.
Any tapering suggestions/plans are welcome! 3 weeks left.
Thanks again - Joe
seamusisidle
Mar 25, 12 16:14
Post #19 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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Best of luck mate. I ran a 1:28 half two weeks ago about 90% effort and have 4 runs over 20 in the bank, I think macmillan sounds a tad ambitious. I'm in the blue zone 3:30 (entered ages ago) although
feel like i could do 3:20, weather permitting.
Ann Arbor Jeff
Mar 25, 12 16:52
Post #20 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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I was in a similar predicament a few years ago, 20 miler at 7:10 pace and every thing felt great. Decided to shoot for sub 3 hours or around 7:00 pace. First half felt great, 1:32. Fell apart about 15 miles, walked ran last 9 miles for a 3:14:55 (needed the 3:15:59 for Boston). Just an example that just :10 per mile can make a difference. Good luck and make sure to start conservative.
tri@thlete
Mar 26, 12 0:03
Post #21 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [Ann Arbor Jeff]
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Thanks @seamusisdle and @annarborjeff!
Sounds very similar. Just curious, what was your pace on most of your long training runs? Sounds like you tried to be at race pace? Like I said, in the past, I used to train my long runs around 15-30/mile slower than my actual race day performance (eg: did a 3:18 a few years ago at 7:33/mi pace, but never did a long run faster than 7:50-8:05). But this year, I don't really know what to expect since I pushed harder than I ever had on the long runs.
I know for a fact that I would've fallen off a big cliff yesterday from mile 20-26. Looks like I'll have to stick w/ the 3:10/3:12 pace for most of the run and try and gut out and push the last 10k.
Greggor
Mar 26, 12 2:25
Post #22 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [DTV]
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Be careful with the Yasso's as predictors. They do not necessarily indicate you have the endurance for that time. I have known many that could not hold their "Yasso predicted pace". I think in the running community it is pretty well understood that the Yasso's tell you a.) if you have adequate speed to cover the distance at that pace or b.) you have no prayer of running that pace if you can't hit the Yassos. Most people have more speed than endurance, so they have a negative deviation (pace slows more than theoretical calcs predict from the VDOT tables or McMillan predicted times) as the distance get longer.
For me, a good 15K or half marathon two to three weeks out is the best predictor with no taper. It gives me a conservative estimate, since it is done on tired legs. Then when the race comes, I go out at that pace and usually start to deviate toward negative splits from ~ mile 16 on.
I think you can go 3:10, if you have done enough good quality long runs.
Ann Arbor Jeff
Mar 26, 12 3:51
Post #23 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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Long run pace was 7:40-8:00 in a pretty hilly area.
tri@thlete
Mar 26, 12 6:30
Post #24 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [Greggor]
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Thanks @Annarborjeff and @greggor -
I would only roughly trust Yasso's like @DTV said about doing 10 and using the 8th/10th as a slight predictor. I hardly ever do/did intervals shorter than 5min. I've bumped them up from 5,8,10,12,15 min over the course of 2 months (all around 6:10-6:40/mi pace depending on the time). I will see how I feel this weekend running for 1hr45min b/c it should be about 14 miles. My guess is I'll easily be able to keep the 3hr10m marathon pace, so it's a good sign given the last 2-3 pretty heavy weeks. I'm probably like you and prefer not to have too much of a taper. I'm still swimming (1600-2k meters), cycling (1-2 hrs per session), and core work (about 40 min/week) -- 2x per week (thought not that intensive or long)....this is on top of the 4-5 runs (2x interval or hill + 1 longer run).
Thanks again!
Joe
ATL Dad
Mar 26, 12 6:45
Post #25 of 39
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Re: Paris Marathon advice - should I go for a sub 3:10? [tri@thlete]
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Over the final 3 weeks, you have to trust your training, bring down the miles a bit, keep up the intensity, get plenty of sleep, up your carbo intake slightly, try not to get sick, keep stress at work low, hope the weather is perfect, and then go nail the race. Sounds easy doesn't it!
Not a whole lot of fitness gains to be made over these final three weeks, but you can still burn the MP and faster into your legs for 20 days and it will help come race day. Just don't overdo it.
I generally follow Brad Hudson's Run Faster plans over the final three weeks. I believe he incorporates a bit more speed than Pfitzinger. Hudson calls for your final two weekend runs to be 2 miles easy with 14 miles at MP +20 seconds and then 2 miles easy, and the weekend before the marathon is 10 miles at MP +20 seconds. These aren't designed to feel hard to you given that you'll run them at 7:25s to 7:30s.
During each week that remains, I'd do some HMP work like 2 miles easy with 2 x 10 minutes at HMP (2 min recovery between the two) and then 3 miles easy. Could also do race week 2 miles easy, 4 miles at MP, 1 mile easy. This week I'd do 2 miles easy, 4 miles at HMP, 3 min easy, 4x 1 mile at HMP (3 min recovery), 2 miles easy. Other days I'd just run 4 to 6 miles at recovery pace, making sure that I was starting to feel well rested.
I think the key to the taper period is to not go crazy with eating because you don't want to put on any weight. Don't pull back on your runs so much that your muscles no longer remember what race pace feels like. And rest, sleep, rest, sleep, as much as you can. That race week should be very light. If you feel like you need to run, then just go out for an easy mile, 2 x 1 mile at MP or maybe HMP, and 1 mile recovery. No need to push the big miles that final week. Speed is much more important.
Good luck!
http://jmassieblog.blogspot.com
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