Despite over 300 posts, I am actually surprised there has been little, if any, mention of the psychological influence Lance's presence may play on the top pro triathletes. Since there will be very little basis to predict what LA will actually be able to run, doesn't anyone think his appearance at the event might cause other pros to push a little harder on the bike (which, presumably, will cause them to run a little slower in the marathon) for fear that they may not be able to catch LA on the run--whether or not that is actually true.

I know, in theory, you race your own race, but still, if you want to win, you can't let the race get away from you.

There's NO WAY Lance can run a 2:50 - 3:00 marathon after swimming 2.4 miles and riding 112 miles. Get real. His PR in an open marathon is 2:46:43. Lance is not a triathlete anymore people. That was 20+ years ago.

Two things:

1. He ran those marathons including the 2:46 off of minimal training - Armstrong admitted that himself. Longest run 16 miles and most weeks about 20 miles of running in total! If he got a 2:46 out of that, he has more potential. As an aside this is not fast running. Rec runners and triathletes today think you are some kind of running-God if you can run under three hours in a stand-alone marathon. That's 7 min/mile pace - not terribly fast at all.

2. You as many do are making the mistake of comparing stand-alone marathons with the marathon run in an IM and thinking they are the same. They are not. About the only similarity is that they are both 26.2 miles long. The add-on time for someone who can run a 2:40's stand-alone marathon to an IM marathon run leg is about 20 minutes. So assuming Armstrong can go 2:40 for the stand-alone, which if he took it at all seriously he is capable of, that get's you to 3:00 for the run leg of an IM and as I said that's Sindballe and Lieto run territory ( which has got each of them top-5's) and if Armstrong can lay down a low 50's swim and a 4:20'ish bike, he's fully capable of a top 10 perhaps even top 5 or better finish at IMH.

If they all worked equally as hard, we would never have a winner. Obviously someone ALWAYS works just a little bit harder. That person is the overall winner. That is in any sport whether it be an individual or a team. That extra work put it in is what determines the Champion/Champions.

If Lance races Kona in a year that I also race Kona, and he races as a pro, I'll let Slowtwitch vote on what I should say to him if I have the opportunity to say something to him on the bike.

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Can we vote on what you'll say to him on the run, too?

If Lance races Kona in a year that I also race Kona, and he races as a pro, I'll let Slowtwitch vote on what I should say to him if I have the opportunity to say something to him on the bike.

Jordan Rapp: Could I get a bottle of water. - - Hey, aren't you Lance Armstrong?
Lance Armstrong: Jordan Rapp!
Jordan Rapp: Yeah, that's me. But I'm a big fan of yours.
Lance Armstrong: Really?
Jordan Rapp: Yeah, I've been watching those Tour de France races on the Ocho. ESPN 8. I just can't get enough of it. But, good luck in the Ironman. I'm really pulling for you against those jerks from Globo Triathlon. I think you better hurry up or you're gonna not finish.
Lance Armstrong: Uh, actually I decided to quit... Jordan.
Jordan Rapp: Quit? You know, once I was thinking about quitting when I was run over by a car and left for dead. But with the love and support of my friends and family, I got back on the bike and I won some races. But I'm sure you have a good reason to quit. So what are you dying from that's keeping you from finishing the run?
Lance Armstrong: Right now it feels a little bit like... shame.
Jordan Rapp: Well, I guess if a person never quit when the going got tough, they wouldn't have anything to regret for the rest of their life. But good luck to you Lance. I'm sure this decision won't haunt you forever.