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Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier
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From Science of Sport's analysis of Contador's climb: http://www.sportsscientists.com/...-contador-climb.html

He has the highest VAM ever recorded in the Tour. What is disturbing to me is the last time this happened - last year - it was Ricardo Ricco, who then immediately got popped for CERA. 2nd on the list below Contador is Riis, who admitted to taking EPO in the 96 TdF. Below him are several performances from Pantani, who had a less than stellar track record regarding drugs, both PED and otherwise.

Does anyone else find this really, really disturbing? I actually find this surprisingly supportive of the "Lance is clean" argument, since his best performance - which was in the 2004 Alpe d'Huez TIME TRIAL, when they ONLY did the Alpe climb, nothing else, no hard lead in, etc. - is 8th on the list. EIGHTH! For a sub-1hr time trial effort.

I'm a Contador fan, in that I just like to see someone who is clearly at the top of their game. But this just doesn't sit well with me.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Dude, as I have been warned by the masses, you should take care in what you are insinuating here. You don't want to get yourself banned.
Last edited by: aerobike: Jul 20, 09 21:13
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Shorter climb than the others, they dawdled the rest of the day, hell, the rest of the tour to date almost...

Forget speedwork. Speedwork is the icing on the cake and you don't have a cake yet. - MattinSF

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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interesting analysis to say the least

Member HED, Cervelo, De Soto Mafia
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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You're right on .... I hope Dan isn't a Contador fan or the Rappstar is banned for sure .... Cera or not ;-)
Dave
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Plus he shot at the camera, a clear indication he was 'shooting up'.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Not disturbed, just not surprised. Dude, it's professional cycling.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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Dude, as I have been warned by the masses, you should take care in what you are insinuating here. "God-willing," you don't want to get yourself banned.


so you were insinuating that AC took peds like Floyd in your other retard post? I can swear that you said that you did not insinuate anything in that post.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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I am saying that I am disturbed by someone setting a record that is much faster than records set by people that either admitted to doping or were busted for it. I am saying that this is disturbing because the most recent time this happened, the individual who set the record was then immediately busted for doping.

Ross does a good job of addressing the issue of doping in the blog post - saying that it's naive to jump to conclusions either way - and that most likely the results over the entire tour - i.e. repeatability - matter more than a single performance. I.e., a tailwind, discrepancies about the actual grade, etc. all could play a role.

I don't think what I am saying is - in large part - any different than if I posted a listing of all of the swimming world records that have been broken with the LZR suit and asking if people were disturbed by that. Unfortunately, history has taught us to be cautious.

I actually wish that - for comparison - they had done an analysis of Andy Schleck's VAM and also Pelizotti. If those guys really had very high VAMs, then it would be reasonable to conclude that wind (and perhaps misinformation about the climb's grade/length) played a role.

However, as the data is presented, I find it troubling. I say this as someone who thinks that cycling has done a very good job of trying to clean up the sport, much moreso than NFL, MLB, etc. where they just sweep it under the rug and/or don't even seriously enforce it. I am *not* disturbed when they catch someone. I think it means that the system is working.

I also think it's important to note that I think there is a big difference between inferring something by performance relative to others (i.e., "it is disturbing that Contador climbed so much faster than Andy Schleck, Pelizotti, etc.") as compared to performance relative to past performers, especially when those past performers are established cheaters.

EDIT: I am DEFINITELY not insinuating that Contador is doping. I am simply saying that I find it troubling that Contador is so much faster than folks who did. I also found it interesting, regarding those who have argued that Lance is clean (including Lance himelf), that his own performances were very strong - relative to his competition - but were not overwhelmingly strong compared to historical performances. I think, for example, that is much more compelling than Ed Coyle's paper (which has been attacked/defended endlessly) on Armstrong's efficiency gains for those who support Lance.


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Last edited by: Rappstar: Jul 20, 09 14:16
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Interesting for sure:


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [OldFart] [ In reply to ]
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Dude, as I have been warned by the masses, you should take care in what you are insinuating here. "God-willing," you don't want to get yourself banned.


I can swear that you said that you did not insinuate anything in that post.
And I wasn't.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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yeah, I find it pretty disturbing.

At first I thought 'there was a huge tailwind and his calculations are off'. Then I saw C Anker Sorenson's power file. Assuming that his SRM is calibrated correctly (and that's a big assumption with any pro's SRM), it would appear there wasn't a massive tailwind effect. Sorenson did something like 5.6 w/kg over the same period and lost 4 minutes to Contador? That's not passing the sniff test to me.
Last edited by: roady: Jul 20, 09 14:25
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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From Science of Sport's analysis of Contador's climb: http://www.sportsscientists.com/...-contador-climb.html

He has the highest VAM ever recorded in the Tour. What is disturbing to me is the last time this happened - last year - it was Ricardo Ricco, who then immediately got popped for CERA. 2nd on the list below Contador is Riis, who admitted to taking EPO in the 96 TdF. Below him are several performances from Pantani, who had a less than stellar track record regarding drugs, both PED and otherwise.

Does anyone else find this really, really disturbing? I actually find this surprisingly supportive of the "Lance is clean" argument, since his best performance - which was in the 2004 Alpe d'Huez TIME TRIAL, when they ONLY did the Alpe climb, nothing else, no hard lead in, etc. - is 8th on the list. EIGHTH! For a sub-1hr time trial effort.

I'm a Contador fan, in that I just like to see someone who is clearly at the top of their game. But this just doesn't sit well with me.

Not really...what actually disturbs me is how many people are suckered into thinking VAM is the "be all and end all" of evaluating climbing performance, when in reality it's just a poor proxy for W/kg.

Check out Alex Simmon's final post in the comments from that blog's previous entry:

http://www.sportsscientists.com/...or-takes-yellow.html


Quote:
On the basis of these revised values for gradient and distance:

Speed is revised to 22.36km/h on an 8.21% gradient.

Maintaining other assumptions per my previous post:

Tailwind (m/s) ___ Watts ___ W/kg
0 ___ 391 ___ 6.52
1 ___ 381 ___ 6.34
2 ___ 372 ___ 6.20
3 ___ 365 ___ 6.09

More than plausible 20-min power from a world class climber.

I agree with Alex...



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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I just really hope that he is in the Usein Bolt category...one in 5 billion humans..a cut above the rest. Of course, I am hoping that Usein is also clean.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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He did compare Andy's climb in the previous article and it was 1837 VAM which should put him 3rd on the list. Armstrong's 1764 for the day was equal to his 2001 Alp d'Huez climb and we know where he finished on the day so the way I look at it the top 5 or 6 on this climb should all be on this list.

JJ


Beta testing this sig line. The old one was so old I can't remember where I got it from. Or maybe I'm so old I can't remember where I got it from. I forget.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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The easy with which he did it was very disturbing to me. He was not exactly gasping for air as he blew the best in the world away.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [roady] [ In reply to ]
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yeah, I find it pretty disturbing.

At first I thought 'there was a huge headwind, and his calculations are off'. Then I saw C Anker Sorenson's power file. Assuming that his SRM is calibrated correctly (and that's a big assumption with any pro's SRM), it would appear there wasn't a massive tailwind effect. Sorenson did something like 5.6 w/kg over the same period and lost 4 minutes to Contador? That's not passing the sniff test to me.

You DO realize that Sorenson buried himself for the opening kilometers of that climb, right? Something like 450W for the first 4 minutes! He averaged only 355W for the total duration of the climb (when his current FTP is apparently closer to 380W) and he'd recorded a maximum 20minute power of 388W on stage 9, i.e. 6.1W/kg.

You might need some antihistamines or something to help you "sniff" a little better ;-)



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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JR,

Not going to comment on this, but the first time I really felt like I was watching a fraud was when Johann Muelhagg, the German/Spanish Nordic skier dropped completely a fully rested a tapered world class field of nordic skiers, at altitude at the Olympic Games 30K Skate in Salt Lake City. Muelhagg made the rest of the best guys in the world look like a bunch of club skiers. As the race wrapped up and he had put over 2:00 minutes into all the best skiers in the world, for the first time, I said to myself, "He's on something", and it turned out that I was right.


Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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I am saying that I am disturbed by someone setting a record that is much faster than records set by people that either admitted to doping or were busted for it. I am saying that this is disturbing because the most recent time this happened, the individual who set the record was then immediately busted for doping.

Except the problem is that in this case, the supposed "record" is the result of using a half-assed estimation....



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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From Science of Sport's analysis of Contador's climb: http://www.sportsscientists.com/...-contador-climb.html

He has the highest VAM ever recorded in the Tour. What is disturbing to me is the last time this happened - last year - it was Ricardo Ricco, who then immediately got popped for CERA. 2nd on the list below Contador is Riis, who admitted to taking EPO in the 96 TdF. Below him are several performances from Pantani, who had a less than stellar track record regarding drugs, both PED and otherwise.

Does anyone else find this really, really disturbing? I actually find this surprisingly supportive of the "Lance is clean" argument, since his best performance - which was in the 2004 Alpe d'Huez TIME TRIAL, when they ONLY did the Alpe climb, nothing else, no hard lead in, etc. - is 8th on the list. EIGHTH! For a sub-1hr time trial effort.

I'm a Contador fan, in that I just like to see someone who is clearly at the top of their game. But this just doesn't sit well with me.

Not really...what actually disturbs me is how many people are suckered into thinking VAM is the "be all and end all" of evaluating climbing performance, when in reality it's just a poor proxy for W/kg.

Check out Alex Simmon's final post in the comments from that blog's previous entry:

http://www.sportsscientists.com/...or-takes-yellow.html


Quote:
On the basis of these revised values for gradient and distance:

Speed is revised to 22.36km/h on an 8.21% gradient.

Maintaining other assumptions per my previous post:

Tailwind (m/s) ___ Watts ___ W/kg
0 ___ 391 ___ 6.52
1 ___ 381 ___ 6.34
2 ___ 372 ___ 6.20
3 ___ 365 ___ 6.09

More than plausible 20-min power from a world class climber.

I agree with Alex...



I saw Alex' post, but I don't agree with some of his assumptions--and I think Sorenson's file is in conflict with is as well.

-weight (I don't know how much he weighs--130 seems a little low, even at the end of the day, but who really knows)

-CdA there's no possible way his CdA is anywhere close to .28, particularly since he was standing for most of the climb. I'd suggest it could literally be almost double that figure

-wind. I didn't really see any indications of a straight wind that strong, and the climb had switchbacks. Sure, there probably was a prevailing wind, and by all accounts it was a tailwind. People normally over-estimate wind-speed though. Still, the best indicator to me at least is Sorensen's file (and keep in mind he was in a group for most of the climb--he was on the front of the group for a brief period).
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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yeah, I find it pretty disturbing.

At first I thought 'there was a huge headwind, and his calculations are off'. Then I saw C Anker Sorenson's power file. Assuming that his SRM is calibrated correctly (and that's a big assumption with any pro's SRM), it would appear there wasn't a massive tailwind effect. Sorenson did something like 5.6 w/kg over the same period and lost 4 minutes to Contador? That's not passing the sniff test to me.

You DO realize that Sorenson buried himself for the opening kilometers of that climb, right? Something like 450W for the first 4 minutes! He averaged only 355W for the total duration of the climb (when his current FTP is apparently closer to 380W) and he'd recorded a maximum 20minute power of 388W on stage 9, i.e. 6.1W/kg.

You might need some antihistamines or something to help you "sniff" a little better ;-)
Yep, I looked at it--and I looked at his power AFTER that 4 minute section as well. You're right, his absolute time would have been better if he'd paced it differently (i.e. if he were riding for himself). I'm still sniffing!!
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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i agree that most performances that seem too good to be true have been proven to be too good to be true. however, does the calculation take into account that jens then fabian were at the front absolutely turning themselves inside out for a couple k before contador took off, and that he didn't ride the entire thing solo? and just looking at the landing page of that study shows that the gradient and distance of it could be well off, potentially making the vam # wonky.

as an aside, what about wellington at kona and roth? when you're talking about 'too good to be true' performances, those are both up there. not insinuating in any way that she's cheating, just saying that big performaces do happen.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks Tom. As always, more than one side to every story. Thanks for your input. As always, a voice of reason. Nice to see that there are other numbers that tell a different story.


"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | Facebook - Rappstar Racing | @rappstar | I work @ Zwift

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [roady] [ In reply to ]
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From the Science of Sport site:




It turns out that with NO WIND, the power output required on the climb is approximately 422W. A tail-wind speed of 3m/s (10km/hour) reduces the power output required to 387W, which is a pretty sizeable difference.
in all likelihood the wind effect probably creates a number somewhere in the middle, which doesn't seem all that crazy for ~20 minutes.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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From the Science of Sport site:




It turns out that with NO WIND, the power output required on the climb is approximately 422W. A tail-wind speed of 3m/s (10km/hour) reduces the power output required to 387W, which is a pretty sizeable difference.
in all likelihood the wind effect probably creates a number somewhere in the middle, which doesn't seem all that crazy for ~20 minutes.
But that was for a straight tailwind the whole way. As Ross further stated, with the switchbacks, it would be headwind/tailwind, which isn't clear how that'd factor in.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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From the Science of Sport site:




It turns out that with NO WIND, the power output required on the climb is approximately 422W. A tail-wind speed of 3m/s (10km/hour) reduces the power output required to 387W, which is a pretty sizeable difference.
in all likelihood the wind effect probably creates a number somewhere in the middle, which doesn't seem all that crazy for ~20 minutes.

True. I think that Joaquin dude put up those same numbers on that climb.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [roady] [ In reply to ]
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True. I think that Joaquin dude put up those same numbers on that climb.

LOL!

Forget speedwork. Speedwork is the icing on the cake and you don't have a cake yet. - MattinSF

Basically they have 9 tenants, live life to the fullest, do not turn the cheak, and embrace the 7 deadly since. - TheForge (on satanists)
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [roady] [ In reply to ]
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One thing I have really noticed riding in the Alps on hot summer afternoons. You'll generally find a STRONG wind blow from the valley up the slopes of the col. That's why the parasailing guys are always taking off on a peak that is just above a mountain pass, cause the warm air from each valley rises up and meets and forms a nice thermal effect.

In the case of a climb like this, although it is not a col, you would then get a crosswind on each straight section and a tailwind on each switchback propelling you with some acceleration into the next straight. Don't know if this dynamic played out on this climb from a wind perspective.

Dev
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [roady] [ In reply to ]
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I saw Alex' post, but I don't agree with some of his assumptions--and I think Sorenson's file is in conflict with is as well.

In what way? Based on the fact that he (Sorensen) went at nearly 20% over his FTP for the first 4 minutes, how is it unthinkable that his power over the climb duration could be that low? Don't forget, he's already demonstrated in this tour that he can put out 6.1W/kg over 20 minutes in the middle of a stage.

Also, as you pointed out yourself, relying on Sorensen's file as a "clue" operates under the risky assumption that his SRM is not only calibrated correctly, but that it was zero'd properly as well.


In Reply To:
-CdA there's no possible way his CdA is anywhere close to .28, particularly since he was standing for most of the climb. I'd suggest it could literally be almost double that figure


Double? I doubt it. Heck, I'm a lot bigger than Alberto and my CdA on the hoods of my road bike isn't much more than what Alex assumed. Besides, even if I bump the CdA up to .35 (a 50% increase over Alex's CdA assumption) that increases the power requirement with zero wind to 410W for 20 minutes, i.e. 6.8W/kg at an assumed 60kg of body weight. That's still not out of the realm of possibility for a world class climber over that duration.



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I think everybody's missing the point.

9 guys on this one climb finished with a VAM that would make this all time list!!!!!!!

The climb was an outlier. Maybe it was the wind, maybe something's off with the calculations but 9 guys making this list tells me it's something other than some theoretical doping by Contador.

JJ


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RACERX] [ In reply to ]
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Andy Schleck's performance should also be on this chart.

Dave in VA
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jsquared] [ In reply to ]
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I guess that is my point. About wind/thermals. Maybe it was a fast climbing day and we know those days exist. It is not like he demolished the field, by something like 3 minutes...it was 40-120 seconds. Large but believable.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jsquared] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
I think everybody's missing the point.

9 guys on this one climb finished with a VAM that would make this all time list!!!!!!!

The climb was an outlier. Maybe it was the wind, maybe something's off with the calculations but 9 guys making this list tells me it's something other than some theoretical doping by Contador.

JJ

Or...maybe VAM is, as I said before, just a poor estimate? It's fine as a "quick and dirty" rule of thumb...but that's about it.



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Good observation as usual. I hope there is nothing subversive going on.

Eh gad- the possibilities are cause for concern....


Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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I think everybody's missing the point.

9 guys on this one climb finished with a VAM that would make this all time list!!!!!!!

The climb was an outlier. Maybe it was the wind, maybe something's off with the calculations but 9 guys making this list tells me it's something other than some theoretical doping by Contador.

JJ

Or...maybe VAM is, as I said before, just a poor estimate? It's fine as a "quick and dirty" rule of thumb...but that's about it.
And I can buy into that theory but all the hubbub of this thread is based on this "impossible VAM" number of Contador's and my take is that it was a great performance but since 9 guys made the gold list on this one climb there's something about the dynamics of this particular climb on this particular day that's points to the climb itself and not an indictment of Contador. His winning by 47 seconds is pretty common place over the history of the tour.

JJ


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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The difference is there is no competition in the women's field. There is more likely to be outliers when you are only sampling from a small portion of the population. Now that more women are actually training her performances don't look as spectacular.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Not really...what actually disturbs me is how many people are suckered into thinking VAM is the "be all and end all" of evaluating climbing performance, when in reality it's just a poor proxy for W/kg.

Check out Alex Simmon's final post in the comments from that blog's previous entry:

http://www.sportsscientists.com/...or-takes-yellow.html

[..]

I agree with Alex...

My general impression is that the authors of that blog are a tad too quick in hitting the "publish" button.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Are you serious?

I would have been disturbed if the numbers would have been a lot smaller.
Is it still not common knowledge that the top contenders are drugged up? What else has to happen? It has been that way for almost EVER.
Do you really believe Floyd Landis or Ricco have been the only guys on juice when they got caught?

Guys... get a grip!

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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what we used to have here on this site were thread titles like, "lance is a doper." we don't allow accusations like that. i treat those sorts of accusations just like i'd treat them if it was a pro triathlete, or an age group triathlete, or a slowtwitch forum reader. you don't make an accusation that might be harmful to a person's reputation, any more than i would go to your place of work and say, to everyone who worked with you, that you were an embezzler, or that you were surfing the internet on work time ;-)

rappstar is not saying contador is a doper. he is noting some calculations done by someone who studies professional cycling in an analytic way, in as tasteful a way as he can while raising a distasteful question.

in 1983 a 32 year old woman from czechoslovakia, jarmila kratochvilova, who had never shown anything like this sort of talent, broke 1:54 for 800m and 48sec for 400m, the first time, i believe, either of those feats had ever been accomplished by a woman. it might be instructive to google images of her. i'm not accusing her of doping, because i have no evidence. but i do think it's fair to raise a question where the evidence begs questions, as tastefully as one can, and while honoring one's presumption of innocense.

where's the line? i don't know. i, like you, am making this up as i go along. we all have to use our best judgment.


Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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what we used to have here on this site were thread titles like, "lance is a doper." we don't allow accusations like that. i treat those sorts of accusations just like i'd treat them if it was a pro triathlete, or an age group triathlete, or a slowtwitch forum reader. you don't make an accusation that might be harmful to a person's reputation, any more than i would go to your place of work and say, to everyone who worked with you, that you were an embezzler, or that you were surfing the internet on work time ;-)

rappstar is not saying contador is a doper. he is noting some calculations done by someone who studies professional cycling in an analytic way, in as tasteful a way as he can while raising a distasteful question.

in 1983 a 32 year old woman from czechoslovakia, jarmila kratochvilova, who had never shown anything like this sort of talent, broke 1:54 for 800m and 48sec for 400m, the first time, i believe, either of those feats had ever been accomplished by a woman. it might be instructive to google images of her. i'm not accusing her of doping, because i have no evidence. but i do think it's fair to raise a question where the evidence begs questions, as tastefully as one can, and while honoring one's presumption of innocense.

where's the line? i don't know. i, like you, am making this up as i go along. we all have to use our best judgment.

You know what, though? Whenever the subject of "outlier performances" being indicative of nefarious actions comes up...I always think of a single name: Bob Beamon



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Duck?



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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Watching him climb reminded me very much of Ricco and Chicken Legs. That said, I really would be shocked (to the extent that is possible in cycling anymore) if he tested positive. Doesn't Astana do the biological passport thing (yes, I am sure I have the wrong term for it), which I thought all but eliminated the chance of doping.

I think he's clean and amazing.

(oh and since everything must have a Lance component and I am a HUGE Lance fan- that dude is simply old and past his prime. Hate to see it, but still love watching him kind of mix it up)
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Agreed. And also Michael Phelps, who might be the single athlete who would surprise me if he got busted.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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"Whenever the subject of "outlier performances" being indicative of nefarious actions comes up...I always think of a single name: Bob Beamon"

good point. i don't believe beamon took drugs, and really one assumes if he did there would have been a few other such jumps. at least something in the 28 foot range (he flew right over that). and that's why it's a good idea not to just say, "he takes drugs." i bring up the story of kratochvilova, because afaik she still holds both the 400m and 800m world records, except for the 400m record set in 1985 by east german marita koch, who has been implicated as a doper with documentary evidence in support. (koch's 400m WR still stands.) i don't know if kratochvilova took drugs and, while i would pull a post that unequivocally states that she did, i think it's fair to talk about it. likewise contador. i believe he was implicated in fuentes but then cleared, was he not? i don't remember all the details. so, talk, but don't accuse. that's about as much guidance as i can give.



Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tri Poseur] [ In reply to ]
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"Bernhard Kohl, the Austrian cyclist who finished third in last year's Tour de France before testing positive for a previously undetectable form of EPO, has revealed the extent of his doping practices, and claimed the much-vaunted biological passport programme of the International Cycling Union (UCI) is ineffective in catching cheats."

the biological passport isn't there to catch cheaters, it is there to make fans think the sport is clean

Ride Scoozy Electric Bicycles
http://www.RideScoozy.com
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [hank rearden] [ In reply to ]
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thats a MAN, baby!

In Reply To:
Duck?


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Agreed. And also Michael Phelps, who might be the single athlete who would surprise me if he got busted.

But, he already did get "busted"...it just wasn't for a PED. Well...at least it's not a PED for swimming ;-)



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Zooma] [ In reply to ]
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He was not exactly gasping for air as he blew the best in the world away.

Did you see Contador completely collapse after he crossed the line though? There is ALWAYS someone who is the best in the world, doping or not. Maybe AC is dirty (I hope not, and he has been fairly consistent which I think speaks in his favour), hopefully he is clean, but I don't think he is doing anything that the rest of the peloton is not.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jsquared] [ In reply to ]
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If you watched the lead-up to the climb, there were massive power windmills that face up the valley up to Martigny. I rode that valley a ton last year, (and did the ride from TeamTBB camp near the Col de Mosses to Sion a couple weeks ago), and the Verbier climb to watch the Tour de Suisse last year. There's always a jamming tailwind on the way to Martigny, and there's a tailwind leading up to foot of the climb. The peloton was hand-delivered to the break and the foot of the climb at the base of the big climb without even trying.

But the other factor is that it was once they came off the false flat and hit the base of the climb, it was "only" 8.7k to the top, relatively short. So everyone was just going balls to the wall. I think that's why you saw nine guys with amazing VAMs; it didn't require the pacing that something like the 21k Mont Ventoux will require, so everyone figured this was the moment to turn yourself inside out and gut it out to the finish. In my experience, there's no wind once on the switchbacks, it was only through the valleys. But for as steep and hard as it was, it was short. So everyone was going redline without regard of potentially blowing up. Methinks.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [uli] [ In reply to ]
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Totally agree.

I can't find the link but within the last 2 weeks there was a thread with a link to an article on Lance and the Tour it which it was said that doping in cycling is common knowledge and accepted in Europe (much like affairs for politicians "but of course") and that Americans are absolutely kidding themselves if they think otherwise. Seems that many still are.

I just assume that they're all on it and why should that effect my enjoyment? Regardless Contador is the best and amazing to watch.


[edit: No need to tell me that one speculative article is proof of nothing]
Last edited by: moulli: Jul 20, 09 16:28
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [moulli] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:

I just assume that they're all on it and why should that effect my enjoyment?

Ummm...because it's cheating???

In any case, I find the "assume they're all guilty" attitude (as you claim the seemingly "enlightened" euros know all so well) to be highly cynical...



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Agreed. And also Michael Phelps, who might be the single athlete who would surprise me if he got busted.

which is why i think swimming might still be cleaner than most other sports. no doubt there are a large number of dopers, but so far, there are no drugs for flexible joints, long torsos, etc. you just look at the flexibility someone like phelps, or amanda beard, or aaron peirsol has, and you can see why they are the world's best.

too bad the sport is now being ruined by the whole suit thing.
Last edited by: brentl: Jul 20, 09 16:37
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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You know what, though? Whenever the subject of "outlier performances" being indicative of nefarious actions comes up...I always think of a single name: Bob Beamon

Tom,

That was a different age of sport. I think it was different. Perhaps I am being naive but we were all innocent back then. When records were broken the way Beamon did on that Jump in Mexico City - it was a jaw dropping, gee-whiz kinda moment. I was 7 years old. I remember going out in the back yard and my Dad walking off 28 feet to show me how far he had jumped. It was shocking! Now, if someone breaks a record by that amount and magnitude, in any sport, unfortunatly we have had that inocense taken away. We are, a bit to a lot, skeptical of it and that's unfortunate.




Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [moulli] [ In reply to ]
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Now that it has come common place to cheat just to stay with the main group, we must not forget that the basis of cheating is to get an advantage over your teammates. So while they all may be using the same drugs to stay at the top, they are all still searching for other ways to get that extra advantage over one another.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Fleck] [ In reply to ]
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You know what, though? Whenever the subject of "outlier performances" being indicative of nefarious actions comes up...I always think of a single name: Bob Beamon

Tom,

That was a different age of sport. I think it was different. Perhaps I am being naive but we were all innocent back then. When records were broken the way Beamon did on that Jump in Mexico City - it was a jaw dropping, gee-whiz kinda moment. I was 7 years old. I remember going out in the back yard and my Dad walking off 28 feet to show me how far he had jumped. It was shocking! Now, if someone breaks a record by that amount and magnitude, in any sport, unfortunatly we have had that inocense taken away. We are, a bit to a lot, skeptical of it and that's unfortunate.


I agree that it's unfortunate about the skepticism, but I highly doubt that Mr. Beamon was on anything, let alone something that would allow that sort of "leap" (pun intended) in performance. I just always look back on that example as "proof" that outlier performances don't necessarily imply cheating.

Your story about walking off Beamon's jump is pretty funny. But, remember, even if you'd just walked off the previous world record in that event, it would've looked pretty shocking as well since it was "only" 2 feet shorter. I was a fairly mediocre high jumper in high school (although not really that bad for my height - I was only 5'7" to 5'8" at the time)...but I recall in practice setting the bar at the current world record and just staring up at the bar thinking "No freakin' way"...



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
Last edited by: Tom A.: Jul 20, 09 16:58
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Fleck] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
You know what, though? Whenever the subject of "outlier performances" being indicative of nefarious actions comes up...I always think of a single name: Bob Beamon

Tom,

That was a different age of sport. ...
It was a year "After" Tommy Simpson died on the Ventoux doped to the freaking gills.... Just saying.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:
You know what, though? Whenever the subject of "outlier performances" being indicative of nefarious actions comes up...I always think of a single name: Bob Beamon

Tom,

That was a different age of sport. I think it was different. Perhaps I am being naive but we were all innocent back then. When records were broken the way Beamon did on that Jump in Mexico City - it was a jaw dropping, gee-whiz kinda moment. I was 7 years old. I remember going out in the back yard and my Dad walking off 28 feet to show me how far he had jumped. It was shocking! Now, if someone breaks a record by that amount and magnitude, in any sport, unfortunatly we have had that inocense taken away. We are, a bit to a lot, skeptical of it and that's unfortunate.


I agree that it's unfortunate about the skepticism, but I highly doubt that Mr. Beamon was on anything, let alone something that would allow that sort of "leap" (pun intended) in performance. I just always look back on that example as "proof" that outlier performances don't necessarily imply cheating.

Your story about walking off Beamon's jump is pretty funny. But, remember, even if you'd just walked off the previous world record in that event, it would've looked pretty shocking as well since it was "only" 2 feet shorter. I was a fairly mediocre high jumper in high school (although not really that bad for my height - I was only 5'7" to 5'8" at the time)...but I recall in practice setting the bar at the current world record and just staring up at the bar thinking "No freakin' way"...

Jesse Owens' WR in the 100m dash stood for 20 years. His LJ WR record stood for 25 years, and would still be considered US national caliber over 70 years later. Anyone want to claim that Owens was doping in 1936? There are times when an athlete is just that much better than everyone else; to use "outlier" as some kind of clue is flat wrong. IIRC, Beamon hurt his leg after the Olympics, and switched to his other leg and was still world class (holds the record for combined jumps for both legs).

(off-topic)

I was at a science center in NH last week. Right outside the mountain lion enclosure, they had the men's LJ record measured out. They pointed out that the mountain lion could clear 30'...from a standing start. They also had a mark on a tree showing how high a mountain lion could go from a standing start. It was 15' up.

(way off topic)

At one point, my HJ PR was 2.00 meters. I broke that with a 2.05m jump at one meet. They then raised the bar to 2.10m. I still recall, 30 years later, the feeling of planting my foot and looking up, up, up at that bar.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Fleck] [ In reply to ]
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JR,

Not going to comment on this, but the first time I really felt like I was watching a fraud was when Johann Muelhagg, the German/Spanish Nordic skier dropped completely a fully rested a tapered world class field of nordic skiers, at altitude at the Olympic Games 30K Skate in Salt Lake City. Muelhagg made the rest of the best guys in the world look like a bunch of club skiers. As the race wrapped up and he had put over 2:00 minutes into all the best skiers in the world, for the first time, I said to myself, "He's on something", and it turned out that I was right.
Dude, I was there and saw that race in person. He was so far in front of everybody it was a joke, like 8th graders playing basketball with kindergarten kids. He even crashed on the final lap and still crushed it by 2+ minutes - too bad they couldn't get all of his medals back.
Last edited by: dutchboy: Jul 20, 09 17:26
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Just Old] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Jesse Owens' WR in the 100m dash stood for 20 years. His LJ WR record stood for 25 years, and would still be considered US national caliber over 70 years later. Anyone want to claim that Owens was doping in 1936? There are times when an athlete is just that much better than everyone else; to use "outlier" as some kind of clue is flat wrong. IIRC, Beamon hurt his leg after the Olympics, and switched to his other leg and was still world class (holds the record for combined jumps for both legs).

Jesse Owens is an excellent example.


In Reply To:
I was at a science center in NH last week. Right outside the mountain lion enclosure, they had the men's LJ record measured out. They pointed out that the mountain lion could clear 30'...from a standing start. They also had a mark on a tree showing how high a mountain lion could go from a standing start. It was 15' up.

I live in mountain lion country. Although encounters with them are pretty rare, just the thought of something with the instincts and "attitudes" of my house cats amplified up to the size of a mountain lion just flat out scares the crap out of me! I don't go mountain biking alone very often anymore...



In Reply To:
At one point, my HJ PR was 2.00 meters. I broke that with a 2.05m jump at one meet. They then raised the bar to 2.10m. I still recall, 30 years later, the feeling of planting my foot and looking up, up, up at that bar.

Speaking of "outliers" and high school athletics...I jumped an entire foot further than I ever had in the final jump of my high school career. On a percentage basis, that increase was a greater "leap" in performance for me that day than Beamon's jump was for him. Go figure... ;-)



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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I am mostly disturbed that you aren't disturbed about witnessing Lance's first 'clean' tour. Watch any of his 7 victories and you will be 'disturbed' by those rides as well
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [hank rearden] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Duck?

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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"But this just doesn't sit well with me."

It doesn't sit well with me, either. I've already considered the possibilities, and I think it's very disturbing. And to the poster who mentioned Phelps, I wouldn't be surprised if he got busted for PED's. A long time ago, I got over being surprised when pro athletes in any sport get dinged for taking performance-enhancers.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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What is interesting, is in the latest Procycling, is that the most watts for a climb ever was Jan in 1997 at arclis for an avg. of 497 watts. Its not even in our sample.As far as meters climbed? ..................I would go with Lemond on saying watts shows more for doping.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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I think the simpler answer or maybe question is- why wouldn't they all dope? and how could they possibly stop doping?- versus having shock with any given performance. Contador along with many other riders were connected to Operation Puerto- but that was shoved under the rug by the Spanish cycling mafia. Valverde is defended in Spain- yet banned in Italy because of compelling evidence. Nearly everyone on that top list of performances of VAM- has tested positive, been banned, highly implicated, or tested positively retroactively. Ever wonder why many athletes that initially race with lance and then go onto other teams get busted... heras, landis, hamilton, etc. Lance did donate 500k to the UCI- that's sort of a conflict of interest to take that- especially if the UCI has power to ban a rider for dope.

Here's an interesting interview: http://www.bikeraceinfo.com/oralhistory/lemond.html

Mabye Contador and the other top GC pros have VO2 maxes above 100... notice how you'll never see a top Pro publish their power data- but it's only domestiques.... you don't want to publish numbers that are physiologically not possible without assistance.....
-----------------------

CB: Were you aware of what you could do in terms of average rate of vertical ascent? For instance, Ivan Basso made everyone's eyes bug out when he was ascending at 1800 vertical meters an hour on the Colle San Carlo in the 2006 Giro.
GL: What wattage was he doing? I would look more at wattage because the rate of vertical ascent could vary so much depending on the pavement. Wattage is the ultimate truth. You know I'm very controversial because I think that you have to look at numbers.
My wattage, relative to VO2 Max...a VO2 Max of 92 or 93 in a fully recovered way...I think I was capable of producing 450 to 460 watts. The truth is, even at the Tour de France, my Tour de France climb times up l'Alpe d'Huez yielded a wattage of around 380 and 390. That was the historic norm for Hinault and myself. You've got times going back many, many years. But what was learned recently, in the last 5 years, was that when you start the Tour de France, you start with a normal hematocrit of, say, 45 percent. By the time you finish, it's probably down 10 or 15 percent. Which means my VO2 Max dropped 10 or 15 percent. So that's why I was never producing the same wattage. And then there a lot of other factors that help performance if you've recovered. My last time trial in '89, I averaged about 420, 430 watts, which would match or be slightly down from what my real VO2 Max was.
Of course, in the '90s drugs came on the scene, so the wattages have gone out. There are some things that are just not explainable, people with VO2 Maxs in the low 80s producing 500 watts. A physiologist friend of my said that for a person to do that, 500 watts, he has to have to have nearly 100 milliliters of Oxygen. There are a lot of questions there for me.
When I start seeing wattage down to the historic norm, I'll know that the battle of the drugs is starting to get back in place.
CB: We can at least understand that statistically, the physical gift that you possessed was one in millions?
GL: I read in a deposition in a trial that an expert witness said that I couldn't have had a ninety [VO2 Max]...that I would have been a one in a thousand in the pro ranks to have that. I happened to have been in the 1980s and was probably the best rider out of a thousand pros. So [laughs], I was one in a thousand.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [uli] [ In reply to ]
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Is it still not common knowledge that the top contenders are drugged up?

Apparently not.

No test for autologous blood doping. Probably means that autologous blood doping is rampant.

Micro-dosing of EPO and hormones carefully monitored so they don't trigger positives.

The testing programs don't breed compliance, they breed innovation and creativity. The question probably isn't "clean" vs. "doping" but just the scale and sophistication of the doping.

Contador's team has a depth of experience unparalleled in cycling.....
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
I think the simpler answer or maybe question is- why wouldn't they all dope? and how could they possibly stop doping?- versus having shock with any given performance. Contador along with many other riders were connected to Operation Puerto- but that was shoved under the rug by the Spanish cycling mafia. Valverde is defended in Spain- yet banned in Italy because of compelling evidence. Nearly everyone on that top list of performances of VAM- has tested positive, been banned, highly implicated, or tested positively retroactively. Ever wonder why many athletes that initially race with lance and then go onto other teams get busted... heras, landis, hamilton, etc. Lance did donate 500k to the UCI- that's sort of a conflict of interest to take that- especially if the UCI has power to ban a rider for dope.

Here's an interesting interview: http://www.bikeraceinfo.com/oralhistory/lemond.html

Mabye Contador and the other top GC pros have VO2 maxes above 100... notice how you'll never see a top Pro publish their power data- but it's only domestiques.... you don't want to publish numbers that are physiologically not possible without assistance.....
-----------------------

CB: Were you aware of what you could do in terms of average rate of vertical ascent? For instance, Ivan Basso made everyone's eyes bug out when he was ascending at 1800 vertical meters an hour on the Colle San Carlo in the 2006 Giro.
GL: What wattage was he doing? I would look more at wattage because the rate of vertical ascent could vary so much depending on the pavement. Wattage is the ultimate truth. You know I'm very controversial because I think that you have to look at numbers.
My wattage, relative to VO2 Max...a VO2 Max of 92 or 93 in a fully recovered way...I think I was capable of producing 450 to 460 watts. The truth is, even at the Tour de France, my Tour de France climb times up l'Alpe d'Huez yielded a wattage of around 380 and 390. That was the historic norm for Hinault and myself. You've got times going back many, many years. But what was learned recently, in the last 5 years, was that when you start the Tour de France, you start with a normal hematocrit of, say, 45 percent. By the time you finish, it's probably down 10 or 15 percent. Which means my VO2 Max dropped 10 or 15 percent. So that's why I was never producing the same wattage. And then there a lot of other factors that help performance if you've recovered. My last time trial in '89, I averaged about 420, 430 watts, which would match or be slightly down from what my real VO2 Max was.
Of course, in the '90s drugs came on the scene, so the wattages have gone out. There are some things that are just not explainable, people with VO2 Maxs in the low 80s producing 500 watts. A physiologist friend of my said that for a person to do that, 500 watts, he has to have to have nearly 100 milliliters of Oxygen. There are a lot of questions there for me.
When I start seeing wattage down to the historic norm, I'll know that the battle of the drugs is starting to get back in place.
CB: We can at least understand that statistically, the physical gift that you possessed was one in millions?
GL: I read in a deposition in a trial that an expert witness said that I couldn't have had a ninety [VO2 Max]...that I would have been a one in a thousand in the pro ranks to have that. I happened to have been in the 1980s and was probably the best rider out of a thousand pros. So [laughs], I was one in a thousand.


Hmmm...looks to me like Mr. LeMond is actually offering information affirming the assumption that AC is NOT on drugs (given the assumption that GL wasn't on them either)...since those power numbers he spouts out are in the same ballpark as to what has been estimated that Contador put out during that short climb...

Interesting.



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Lemond is heavier than Contador, so compare w/Kg vs just watts- and Contador crushes Lemond and everyone else. Plus with decreased power as the tour goes on- I don't see how his statements would support an off the charts Contador. The interview appears to be a couple years old. As to who uses drugs and doesn't- I assume all professionals act professionally and use any method they can to get their best performance for their team, sponsor, and family- whether today, or in Lemond's day or in Merckx's day or Coppi's day, etc. I've read many, many, many accounts of Sunday's stage- where riders give their thoughts and feedback- and I couldn't find one statement that thought Contador's feat was beyond normal limits. Obviously a sign (to me) that the field is level- the mafia omerta is strong as ever, and the riders are still at the most 'professional level' (i.e. all doing what they can do - to be the fastest cyclists they can be). Just like a baseball or football player would do. I don't fault any of the cyclists for the system they are in- or their choices- it's just the way it is- in Pro Tour- and they are working hard, paying their bills, having a family- just like us. MOst people on boards- are armchair followers of sport- and yes- lots of people here ride- but how many have ridden 500 miles in a week- let alone 800 miles in a week- climbing thousands and thousands of vertical feet. I think many would have a different perspective on 'ethics and sport' if they actually had to do what these riders do. I am a very much by the book person- feel that I am highly ethical, yet- I have ridden 500 mile weeks (and can't even imagine 800-900 mile weeks)- and if my income and career depended upon it and if it was my work- I would do exactly what the top cyclists are doing to prepare. As the research clearly shows- doping can increase performance and wattage by 20% and help recovery much more. When times are only several % apart for the entire peloton- there is only ONE choice a pro can make to be a pro and compete (within the time cut off limits and not be kicked out for being too slow). Luckily- I only ride for fun (don't remotely have the genetics) and don't have to face their reality.


This is an interesting historical chart- and backgroup on the performances
http://www.sportsscientists.com/...power-estimates.html


Last edited by: mlinenb: Jul 20, 09 19:10
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Agreed. And also Michael Phelps, who might be the single athlete who would surprise me if he got busted.

But, he already did get "busted"...it just wasn't for a PED. Well...at least it's not a PED for swimming ;-)
Yeah, it's only a PED for playing bass guitar.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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"Hmmm...looks to me like Mr. LeMond is actually offering information affirming the assumption that AC is NOT on drugs (given the assumption that GL wasn't on them either)...since those power numbers he spouts out are in the same ballpark as to what has been estimated that Contador put out during that short climb..."


I just wanted to highlight this.

Thanks, Tom.

It's been entertaining watching people tilt at windmills, but it seems pretty clear that using a flawed metric to analyze crude data with unclear and poorly defined waypoints is an excercise in futility - at best.

'nuff said, right?

Nope.

When the info derived from a better than cursory examination of the (crude) data actually seems to contradict the thinly-veiled accusations being thrown around, this all begins to get more than a little bit sad...


.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [trail] [ In reply to ]
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Is it still not common knowledge that the top contenders are drugged up?

Apparently not.

No test for autologous blood doping. Probably means that autologous blood doping is rampant.

Micro-dosing of EPO and hormones carefully monitored so they don't trigger positives.

The testing programs don't breed compliance, they breed innovation and creativity. The question probably isn't "clean" vs. "doping" but just the scale and sophistication of the doping.

Contador's team has a depth of experience unparalleled in cycling.....
One of the comments that both Bob Roll and the Liggett/Sherwin duo have made regularly is about how Yaroslav Popovych, who rode very badly with Silence-Lotto, immediately upon returning to ride for Johan Bruyneel is back on the same form he was when he rode for Disco, kicking ass - setting tempo, etc. Now, there are plenty of examples of players going to other teams - both good and bad - and not doing well (Jose Contreras sucking for the Yankees and awesome for the White Sox, as an example). I can see if you were the only person who was any good to work for Evans, who may suck to be a domestique for (I have no idea), that could suck and you could just not be motivated. But, I also don't think it's necessarily the most positive message.

In any case, as Dan said, I'm simply trying to tastefully discuss a distasteful topic. I'm glad I did, since Tom A.'s thoughts on VAM were really valuable, and if I'd never asked, I wouldn't have known.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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It is no matter how 'disturbed' you might be by these figures. Fortunately, in most of the societies readers of this forum live in, there are some maxims that apply. Foremost amongst them is that you are Innocent until proven guilty.

We all know that doping/cheating has been prevalent in the Tour de France ever since it first started. That also happens to be the nature of sport in general. Competitors are always looking for ways to win. Some look for legal methods other not legal.

Surmising whether an athlete is using illegal methods is pointless speculation and a waste of time. Anyone can cheat, and some will cheat, as much they want. But at the end of the day, it is only cheating when they are caught.

At the moment AC is not cheating. He's having a good tour.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [irncpl] [ In reply to ]
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It is no matter how 'disturbed' you might be by these figures. Fortunately, in most of the societies readers of this forum live in, there are some maxims that apply. Foremost amongst them is that you are Innocent until proven guilty.

We all know that doping/cheating has been prevalent in the Tour de France ever since it first started. That also happens to be the nature of sport in general. Competitors are always looking for ways to win. Some look for legal methods other not legal.

Surmising whether an athlete is using illegal methods is pointless speculation and a waste of time. Anyone can cheat, and some will cheat, as much they want. But at the end of the day, it is only cheating when they are caught.

At the moment AC is not cheating. He's having a good tour.
thoughts to ponder- guilty of what? if they all train the same way? Is AC cheating- if he prepares the same way as every other rider? He's certainly not 'cheating' if he's doing the same thing as his peers? right? you don't hear other riders speculating about other riders performances? instead- you hear them give congrats... and probably think- what is he doing- i need to add that to my 'program'. the press loves records and strong performances. the fans love record breaking performances. the sponsors love when their riders win. i'm not sure anyone is being cheated... except the riders themselves- not each other- but sadly themselves- who will ultimately suffer whatever consequences come from their doctor's training aids. who knows what the health will be of the cycling rat generation and all the tests they have put into and through their body.
Last edited by: mlinenb: Jul 20, 09 19:22
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Conversely, you have guys like Kevin Livingston, Bobby Julich and Santiago Botero sucking on T-mobile which had an organized program apparently.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [irncpl] [ In reply to ]
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Innocent until proven guilty is a legal standard. And cheating is still cheating is still cheating whether others are doing it or not. i.e. to think AC is innocent is pure folly.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [irncpl] [ In reply to ]
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But at the end of the day, it is only cheating when they are caught.

What a load of crap!!!

Doping is doping. It is against the rules, and hence illegal, and hence cheating, whether you get caught or not. Same with drafting, or cutting the run short. It's still cheating.

That mindset is the problem, not the solution.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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This is an interesting historical chart- and backgroup on the performances
http://www.sportsscientists.com/...power-estimates.html

Ummm...I'd be careful with drawing any conclusions based on that "analysis" or that chart.

The power values "estimated" that form the basis of that analysis (by a Mr. Vayer) haven't been shown to be exactly...ummm, reliable. Not to mention the assumptions made by Vayer, and also Mr. LeMond, about the correlation between VO2max and FTP. Just ask Mr. Chung ;-)



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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This is an interesting historical chart- and backgroup on the performances
http://www.sportsscientists.com/...power-estimates.html

Ummm...I'd be careful with drawing any conclusions based on that "analysis" or that chart.

The power values "estimated" that form the basis of that analysis (by a Mr. Vayer) haven't been shown to be exactly...ummm, reliable. Not to mention the assumptions made by Vayer, and also Mr. LeMond, about the correlation between VO2max and FTP. Just ask Mr. Chung ;-)
Ferrari's been estimating VAM and he's seen the power data of many of his riders from their top performances over the years- so I would trust his data (which is very close to Mr. Vayer's data). I think Ferrari know's Lance's data better than anyone here ;) But you can feel free to armchair it otherwise ;)

http://www.53x12.com/...epth.view&id=104

Performances at the Tour 2009
By: Michele Ferrari
Published: 19 Jul 2009

On the ascent to Verbier (638m of difference in height at 7.5%) Alberto Contador (62kg) climbed at 1852 m/h, equal to 6.73 w/kg, developing an average of 417w.

Lance Armstrong (72 kg) climbed at 1720 m/h, equal to 6.25 w/kg, developing 450w.

The difference between their VAM's is 7.4% in favor of Alberto, while Lance, whose body weight is 16% heavier, pushed 8% more watts: a suggestion that in the upcoming time trial in Annecy it could be a very close and uncertain duel.

In Arcalis (751m of ascent at 7.1%) Contador climbed at 1671 m/h, equal to 6.18 w/kg, with Armstrong and all the other best riders at 1649 m/h (6.10 w/kg); but in the last couple of km Alberto had already showed a power that was 7.2% superior to his rivals'.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Maybe this was pointed out, but the chart is an apples oranges comparison in the sense that most of the climbs, save the rare time trials, are not balls out from the bottom. One team typically sets tempo, but on yesterday's stage even Armstrong said that right from the base the pace was so severe that even the best climbers were red lined. Add to that a short climb where a climber like AC can still find an extra gear and hold it, and a tailwind, and some of the other factors mentioned, and I'm not surprised at the numbers.

On the other hand, Contador's climb, while spectacular, was no more impressive than Pantani's flyer up Alpe Duez, or even some of Armstrong's better climbs. Sastre had a climb almost as impressive as Contador's, coming from a bit back to pass nearly everyone.

I think you guys make way too much of this. Are the top riders on something? No way of knowing, especially if it's their own blood they are transfusing. Until proven guilty, I'll give them all the benefit of the doubt. If you don't, you will wrongly implicate the clean riders, and that is worse than letting the bad ones get away with it (just barely).
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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that VO2 Max comment by Lemond didn't sound right... I know cycling is not a skill sport as the contact points of the bike pretty much force you to do it correctly, but I remember back to a comment by someone who noted that Frank Shorter or some old school marathoner won an Olympic gold medal with a much lower VO2 Max than the 2nd place guy... basically saying that efficiency was better for Shorter (or whoever it was).

Does this apply in cycling too?

No doubt Lemond is mixing his acronyms he's such a dinosaur.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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This is an interesting historical chart- and backgroup on the performances
http://www.sportsscientists.com/...power-estimates.html


My general impression is that the authors of that blog are a tad too quick in hitting the "publish" button.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [irncpl] [ In reply to ]
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not exactly, that is the standard we apply before we put someone in jail.

it is not the standard we apply for casual opinions and discussion

or the standard you would apply if deciding to let an accused child molestor, not yet found guilty, babysit your daughter.

i think top athletes in most sports, have earned the right to be guilty until proven innocent.

its just how people are, and always have been. champion are rarely the idealistic role models we wish they were, they never have been, never will be. champions are people who get it done, often by any means necessary. they always have the good qualities of hard work, never giving up

but they often have the darker side too. cest la vie

cest la tour

In Reply To:
It is no matter how 'disturbed' you might be
by these figures. Fortunately, in most of the societies readers of this forum live in, there are some maxims that apply. Foremost amongst them is that you are Innocent until proven guilty.



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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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Hmmm. I bet Billy Mills 10K in Tokyo doesn't sit well either. Dude goes through the 5K 1 second off his PR, and holds it for another 5K, beating the world champ, winning the gold medal, and PRing by nearly 2 minutes. Sometimes these guys really are this good. Too bad we now never know if they are legit. That's the real damage that dopers do to sport.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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I view this performance with healthy skepticism on two fronts:

1) AC didn't merely set the VAM record, he destroyed it. No matter if the equations are flawed or not or whether the climb was short, he destroyed a record much like Mike Powell did in the long jump and Michael Johnson in the 200 meter dash in 1996.

That said, AC's numbers on, I believe, the Mortirolo in 2008 Giro were off the VAM charts as well. While not record setting, he was climbing with wings 14 months ago.

2) This performance also says to me that Lance Armstrong from any year of his 7 wins couldn't beat AC. Lance's best VAM was from a stand alone TT, not a stage.

Finally, if, as I hope, AC is as clean as a whistle, we could be looking at a rider of historic proportions. Contador is 3 for his last 3 GT's. At 26 he's not even in the 27-33 sweet spot where GT riders normally hit their peak.

So say AC enters two GT's a year for the next 5 years (16 chances counting the Vuelta this year) and he "only" wins 50% of them, he could well wind up with another 8-10 GT victories to go along with the three (possibly four) he already has. That would be a career total of, what, maybe 12 or 14, which is more than Eddy Merckx's 11 total.

Yes, there are a lot of factors involved there, but it is mind-boggling to think of the possibilities.

Bob



"If you have a dream, pursue it as hard as you can. The world needs more of that." - Jordan Rapp
Last edited by: Macho Grande: Jul 20, 09 21:50
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Bum] [ In reply to ]
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Hmmm. I bet Billy Mills 10K in Tokyo doesn't sit well either. Dude goes through the 5K 1 second off his PR, and holds it for another 5K, beating the world champ, winning the gold medal, and PRing by nearly 2 minutes. Sometimes these guys really are this good. Too bad we now never know if they are legit. That's the real damage that dopers do to sport.
Robby Benson is the real dope that did damage to Billy Mills.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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  • VAM is a strange measure for such an evil genius like Ferrari
  • Sorensen's FTP is 6.22w/kg and he's not a team leader?! (380/61)
  • Has Lemond ever released some sort of a watts:blood test protocol that would satisfy his scrutiny?
  • Any thought as to what Contador, or the pinnacle of humanity for that matter, should be able to hold in terms of w/kg for a 20' climb?

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [ericM35-39] [ In reply to ]
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that VO2 Max comment by Lemond didn't sound right... I know cycling is not a skill sport as the contact points of the bike pretty much force you to do it correctly, but I remember back to a comment by someone who noted that Frank Shorter or some old school marathoner won an Olympic gold medal with a much lower VO2 Max than the 2nd place guy... basically saying that efficiency was better for Shorter (or whoever it was).

Does this apply in cycling too?

No doubt Lemond is mixing his acronyms he's such a dinosaur.

Here's one of Mr. Chung's favorite charts on the subject of correlation (or lack thereof) between VO2max and 1 hour average wattage:





http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Macho Grande] [ In reply to ]
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I would have to agree with you, but only if he has a good team around him. He could end up like Cadel, very good rider, but no team to back him up! I am very curious as to what will happen to Astana, AC, LA, Levi, Kloden, JB and the rest after this tour.

And those Shleck brothers get better every year!


Bike racing is going to be very good for the next 5 years....
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Ferrari's been estimating VAM and he's seen the power data of many of his riders from their top performances over the years- so I would trust his data (which is very close to Mr. Vayer's data). I think Ferrari know's Lance's data better than anyone here ;) But you can feel free to armchair it otherwise ;)

Ferrari's a quack...and if his power estimates come close to Vayer's, then that's just more confirmation that his numbers aren't to be believed. But, don't take my word for it, just do the simple calculations yourself. It's just simple physics ;-)

Heck, wasn't it LeMond himself who recently related an incident where he first met Ferrari and was asked what that device was on his bike? And LeMond claims that after telling him it was a power meter, that Ferrari basically looked at him like he didn't comprehend the usefulness?



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Macho Grande] [ In reply to ]
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1) AC didn't merely set the VAM record, he destroyed it..... he destroyed a record much like Mike Powell did in the long jump



Don't you mean Bob Beamon? Beamon increased the mark from 8.35 to 8.90. Powell then only raised it to 8.95.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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According to Chris Carmichael: "Lance's speed on the climb was close to what he achieved on major summit finishes during the Tours he won, which provides an indication of how powerful and explosive Contador is right now." Interesting....
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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Hmmm. I bet Billy Mills 10K in Tokyo doesn't sit well either. Dude goes through the 5K 1 second off his PR, and holds it for another 5K, beating the world champ, winning the gold medal, and PRing by nearly 2 minutes. Sometimes these guys really are this good. Too bad we now never know if they are legit. That's the real damage that dopers do to sport.
Robby Benson is the real dope that did damage to Billy Mills.
Touche' !!!!!
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Ferrari's been estimating VAM and he's seen the power data of many of his riders from their top performances over the years- so I would trust his data (which is very close to Mr. Vayer's data).

Ferrari's a quack...and if his power estimates come close to Vayer's, then that's just more confirmation that his numbers aren't to be believed.

My general impression is that Vayer is a tad too quick in hitting the "publish" button.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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I think far too much has been made of this
The Verbier climb has no precendents - if Pantani, Armstrong in his prime had climbed this you would have far better data
As it is, VAM is apples to oranges:
Weather, length of climb, gradient etc
The Verbier stage was much shorter than many of the Hautacam, ADH stages
There was also a rest day the next day, and Contador had to explode to dominate his own team, let alone his rivals

Lastly, you change the scale of the VAM chart and you will see (despite all the caveats above) its actually very close. Say Contador climbs 50metres an hr quicker than Pantani - over 25 min climb he drops him by 20 metres. That is seconds......
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [bespoke] [ In reply to ]
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"over 25 min climb he drops him by 20 metres. That is seconds......"


Hmmmm...methinks your geometry is off.

***********************
Back in the saddle!
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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From Science of Sport's analysis of Contador's climb: http://www.sportsscientists.com/...-contador-climb.html

He has the highest VAM ever recorded in the Tour. What is disturbing to me is the last time this happened - last year - it was Ricardo Ricco, who then immediately got popped for CERA. 2nd on the list below Contador is Riis, who admitted to taking EPO in the 96 TdF. Below him are several performances from Pantani, who had a less than stellar track record regarding drugs, both PED and otherwise.

Does anyone else find this really, really disturbing? I actually find this surprisingly supportive of the "Lance is clean" argument, since his best performance - which was in the 2004 Alpe d'Huez TIME TRIAL, when they ONLY did the Alpe climb, nothing else, no hard lead in, etc. - is 8th on the list. EIGHTH! For a sub-1hr time trial effort.

I'm a Contador fan, in that I just like to see someone who is clearly at the top of their game. But this just doesn't sit well with me.
I said it immediately after seeing that Cobra like performance... JUICE!
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [TriBriGuy] [ In reply to ]
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"over 25 min climb he drops him by 20 metres. That is seconds......"


Hmmmm...methinks your geometry is off.
It's a really steep climb. He did say "drop", didn't he?

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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Alberto Contadope. I imagine others have made that joke, though.

I still love roid landis and lance pharmstrong.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Ferrari's been estimating VAM and he's seen the power data of many of his riders from their top performances over the years- so I would trust his data (which is very close to Mr. Vayer's data). I think Ferrari know's Lance's data better than anyone here ;) But you can feel free to armchair it otherwise ;)

Ferrari's a quack...and if his power estimates come close to Vayer's, then that's just more confirmation that his numbers aren't to be believed. But, don't take my word for it, just do the simple calculations yourself. It's just simple physics ;-)

Heck, wasn't it LeMond himself who recently related an incident where he first met Ferrari and was asked what that device was on his bike? And LeMond claims that after telling him it was a power meter, that Ferrari basically looked at him like he didn't comprehend the usefulness?
Lemond's claim about powermeter was when he was using an SRM in the early 90s. Ferrari fully understands watts today as a measure of riders capabilities. Ferrari- you might call him a quack- but his riders have the best palmares of the last 2 decades- so he's an extremely effective quack. Lastly- Ferrari, should have tons of power data points- tons of them- for climbs in races, training, etc. So- for him to fairly accurately calculate VAM- knowing the watts riders have actually produced in the past- is not far fetched at all. We (fans) have a handful of data points- like one in 2009 TdF- he might have hundreds... Maybe it's time to see the forest and stop focusing on the tree.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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According to Chris Carmichael: "Lance's speed on the climb was close to what he achieved on major summit finishes during the Tours he won, which provides an indication of how powerful and explosive Contador is right now." Interesting....

After reading this thread it seems that your attempts to discredit AC have failed again.

It's okay though, Lance will be a great domestique...
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Nope. Not disturbed by that at all. There's doping in cycling, there's doping in all major sports where there's a paycheck (hell, even on the amatuer ranks as well). We all know this is a fact.

What disturbs me the most are the kids and babies who come to the hospital where I work whose lovely parents decided in a drug fueled haze to beat the piss out if them and turn them into neuro cases, aka "vegetables". That bothers me. Doping in cycling? Not a problem that affects me one bit.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jackmott] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
not exactly, that is the standard we apply before we put someone in jail.

it is not the standard we apply for casual opinions and discussion

or the standard you would apply if deciding to let an accused child molestor, not yet found guilty, babysit your daughter.

i think top athletes in most sports, have earned the right to be guilty until proven innocent.

its just how people are, and always have been. champion are rarely the idealistic role models we wish they were, they never have been, never will be. champions are people who get it done, often by any means necessary. they always have the good qualities of hard work, never giving up

but they often have the darker side too. cest la vie

cest la tour
[/reply]Just wanted to reiterate your post. SPOT ON!

_________________________________________________
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Lastly- Ferrari, should have tons of power data points- tons of them- for climbs in races, training, etc. So- for him to fairly accurately calculate VAM- knowing the watts riders have actually produced in the past- is not far fetched at all. We (fans) have a handful of data points- like one in 2009 TdF- he might have hundreds... Maybe it's time to see the forest and stop focusing on the tree.

I'm not the one focusing on one guy and his flawed estimates of power.

It's fairly easy to calculate the required power for climbs...and the equations to do so are readily available. Maybe you should see about confirming the physician's grasp of physics? After all, there are some posters on this very forum who have demonstrated that just because someone is trained as a physician, it doesn't mean that they have a good grasp of basic physics ;-) I'd put my money on Alex Simmons being able to give a better estimate of the power required than Dr. Ferrari.

To paraphrase Mr. Chung...my general impression is that mlinenb is a bit too quick to hit the "publish" button...



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
Last edited by: Tom A.: Jul 21, 09 8:34
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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(don't mean to point you out personally just trying to respond)

did anybody look at this one?

French Sports minister Roselyne Bachelot confirmed on Thursday that Astana team riders at the Tour de France stayed too long out of sight of an UCI inspector during a random doping test last week.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...-test-avoidance.html

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [msuguy512] [ In reply to ]
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French Sports minister Roselyne Bachelot confirmed on Thursday that Astana team riders at the Tour de France stayed too long out of sight of an UCI inspector during a random doping test last week.

Well then both Lance and AC are guilty, both are on drugs and......AC is still ahead....


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Lastly- Ferrari, should have tons of power data points- tons of them- for climbs in races, training, etc. So- for him to fairly accurately calculate VAM- knowing the watts riders have actually produced in the past- is not far fetched at all. We (fans) have a handful of data points- like one in 2009 TdF- he might have hundreds... Maybe it's time to see the forest and stop focusing on the tree.

I'm not the one focusing on one guy and his flawed estimates of power.

It's fairly easy to calculate the required power for climbs...and the equations to do so are readily available. Maybe you should see about confirming the physician's grasp of physics? After all, there are some posters on this very forum who have demonstrated that just because someone is trained as a physician, it doesn't mean that they have a good grasp of basic physics ;-) I'd put my money on Alex Simmons being able to give a better estimate of the power required than Dr. Ferrari.

To paraphrase Mr. Chung...my general impression is that mlinenb is a bit too quick to hit the "publish" button...

I didn't publish anything original like the blog posts etc. Take VAM analysis out of the equation. Do you think Ferrari is not intimately familiar with numerous top riders wattage data- such as Lance?

On a different note- This is the first public rider comment that maybe thought (sadly thought) that this year would be a clean(er) tour.... how naive can he be?

from velonews.com
The yellow jersey crossed a minute later, the balance of power unaltered between Saxo and Astana. The real loser on the day was Evans, who finished 46th on the day, nearly three minutes behind Contador.
"I'm out of it," the two-time Tour runner-up said. "I'm out of the race. For a place on the podium at least."
The Silence-Lotto rider then added, cryptically: "Physically, everything (is) fine. But for professional reasons I can't comment on the problems I've been having."
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [msuguy512] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
(don't mean to point you out personally just trying to respond)

did anybody look at this one?

French Sports minister Roselyne Bachelot confirmed on Thursday that Astana team riders at the Tour de France stayed too long out of sight of an UCI inspector during a random doping test last week.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...-test-avoidance.html
Were they both sweaty and needing to take a 30 minute shower? Like LA earlier in the year?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
On a different note- This is the first public rider comment that maybe thought (sadly thought) that this year would be a clean(er) tour.... how naive can he be?

Evans gets dropped, so they're all doping!?!

If you've followed Wiggins at all, you'll know he's clean.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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"But for professional reasons I can't comment on the problems I've been having."

I wouldn't automatically assume that quote has anything to do with doping. More likely, its the complete and utter lack of support that he gets from his team. Saxo has 3 or 4 guys, Astana has 4 or 5, Garmin has a couple, hell, even Cervelo, which isn't even a Protour team, has had someone to help Sastre.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Do you think Ferrari is not intimately familiar with numerous top riders wattage data- such as Lance?

I already told you what I thought of Ferrari...he's a quack...and he also plays loosey-goosey with the power numbers he throws around.


In Reply To:
On a different note- This is the first public rider comment that maybe thought (sadly thought) that this year would be a clean(er) tour.... how naive can he be?

from velonews.com
The yellow jersey crossed a minute later, the balance of power unaltered between Saxo and Astana. The real loser on the day was Evans, who finished 46th on the day, nearly three minutes behind Contador.
"I'm out of it," the two-time Tour runner-up said. "I'm out of the race. For a place on the podium at least."
The Silence-Lotto rider then added, cryptically: "Physically, everything (is) fine. But for professional reasons I can't comment on the problems I've been having."

Oh please...he most likely didn't want to say "Well...once again my team wouldn't pony up the money to get me some real help in the mountains. My team sucks."



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:
(don't mean to point you out personally just trying to respond)

did anybody look at this one?

French Sports minister Roselyne Bachelot confirmed on Thursday that Astana team riders at the Tour de France stayed too long out of sight of an UCI inspector during a random doping test last week.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...-test-avoidance.html
Were they both sweaty and needing to take a 30 minute shower? Like LA earlier in the year?

IIRC, wasn't this the case where the UCI inspector showed up in the wee hours of the morning, and then realizing how early it was, that's when HE decided to wait and have coffee with the mechanics?

Sounds to me like another UCI/AFLD squabble with Astana caught in the middle



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:
Do you think Ferrari is not intimately familiar with numerous top riders wattage data- such as Lance?

I already told you what I thought of Ferrari...he's a quack...and he also plays loosey-goosey with the power numbers he throws around.


In Reply To:
On a different note- This is the first public rider comment that maybe thought (sadly thought) that this year would be a clean(er) tour.... how naive can he be?

from velonews.com
The yellow jersey crossed a minute later, the balance of power unaltered between Saxo and Astana. The real loser on the day was Evans, who finished 46th on the day, nearly three minutes behind Contador.
"I'm out of it," the two-time Tour runner-up said. "I'm out of the race. For a place on the podium at least."
The Silence-Lotto rider then added, cryptically: "Physically, everything (is) fine. But for professional reasons I can't comment on the problems I've been having."

Oh please...he most likely didn't want to say "Well...once again my team wouldn't pony up the money to get me some real help in the mountains. My team sucks."
I don't disagree with your statement, as Cadel has a record of ripping apart his teammates and their (lack of) athletic ability. That's why his statement is interesting- why hold back now if it was an attack against his teammates versus something else.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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possibly, are french not able to tell time?

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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I don't disagree with your statement, as Cadel has a record of ripping apart his teammates and their (lack of) athletic ability. That's why his statement is interesting- why hold back now if it was an attack against his teammates versus something else.

Oh, I don't know...maybe he's just finally realized that if he stays with his current team all his complaining isn't going to do any good. It hasn't in the past, so why would it make a difference going forward. In other words, he's given up on them.

Knowing that, maybe he doesn't want to look like a whiner in the eyes of any other potential teams to which he might switch? Does anyone know if Evans' contract is up this year?



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Just Old] [ In reply to ]
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I was at a science center in NH last week. Right outside the mountain lion enclosure, they had the men's LJ record measured out. They pointed out that the mountain lion could clear 30'...from a standing start. They also had a mark on a tree showing how high a mountain lion could go from a standing start. It was 15' up.

That's incredible.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Does anyone know if Evans' contract is up this year?

He renewed last year for two years.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [FJB] [ In reply to ]
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I was at a science center in NH last week. Right outside the mountain lion enclosure, they had the men's LJ record measured out. They pointed out that the mountain lion could clear 30'...from a standing start. They also had a mark on a tree showing how high a mountain lion could go from a standing start. It was 15' up.

That's incredible.

"With powerful, long hind legs, mountain lions can jump 15 to 18 feet vertically and 30 to 45 feet horizontally. "

http://www.nhnature.org/mountain_lion.html

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Lastly- Ferrari, should have tons of power data points- tons of them- for climbs in races, training, etc. So- for him to fairly accurately calculate VAM- knowing the watts riders have actually produced in the past- is not far fetched at all. We (fans) have a handful of data points- like one in 2009 TdF- he might have hundreds... Maybe it's time to see the forest and stop focusing on the tree.

I'm not the one focusing on one guy and his flawed estimates of power.

It's fairly easy to calculate the required power for climbs...and the equations to do so are readily available. Maybe you should see about confirming the physician's grasp of physics? After all, there are some posters on this very forum who have demonstrated that just because someone is trained as a physician, it doesn't mean that they have a good grasp of basic physics ;-) I'd put my money on Alex Simmons being able to give a better estimate of the power required than Dr. Ferrari.

To paraphrase Mr. Chung...my general impression is that mlinenb is a bit too quick to hit the "publish" button...
Last time someone put money on me it was for winning the sprint at the end of a two man 75km breakaway. As the resident "trackie" I was a shoo-in apparently. They lost their money, then had the temerity to abuse me for it! LOL

I have said if someone can help provide me with the data and assumptions used by the French scientists quoted in that blog or Vayer or whomever, I'll run them through the mincer, which by the way is based on the Martin et al paper*. All I've done is to solve the (cubic) equations in Excel.


And the comment about AC's climbing CdA being no-where near 0.28m^2 (that may well be true, but I have data from a simlarly sized rider that suggests it isn't actually that far off the mark), nevertheless, I made it pretty clear in my posts on the blog which assumptions matter more than others in terms of the sensitivity to the estimated power. The power estimate on a steep climb is not overly sensitive to CdA. It is much more sensitive to mass, gradient, speed and wind assumptions. And it would appear that none of those assumptions have been properly validated.

*Validation of a Mathematical Model for Road Cycling Power, by (Jim) Martin, Milliken, Cobb, McFadden & Coggan

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Alex Simmons] [ In reply to ]
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It is hard to compare VAM depending on the type of ascents (gradient, altitude): here is an analysis from Dr Ferrari, an "expert" ;-) (www.53x12.com)

VAM: Effects of Gradient & Altitude
By: Michele Ferrari
Published: 19 Jun 2009



When evaluating the VAM of a certain climbing performance we need to consider wind, drafting, asphalt conditions but also average SLOPE GRADIENT of the climb and the ALTITUDES at the start and end of the ascent.

There is quite a difference between a VAM obtained on an average gradient of 10% than one with the same value but obtained over a climb at 7%.
Over the years I have been putting together and using a simple formula which is useful when comparing VAM's expressed over different gradients.
For example, a VAM=1800 m/h corresponds to a different value in watt/kg, depending on the average gradient of the climb:

- gradient 11% 1800/3.1 = 5.80 w/kg
- gradient 10% 1800/3.0 = 6.00 w/kg
- gradient 9% 1800/2.9 = 6.20 w/kg
- gradient 8% 1800/2.8 = 6.42 w/kg
- gradient 7% 1800/2.7 = 6.66 w/kg
- gradient 6% 1800/2.6 = 6.92 w/kg

It is therefore simply enough to subdivide the VAM value with a certain number, between 2.6 up to 3.1, in accordance with the steepness of the climb (from 6% to 11%).

At higher ALTITUDES, barometric pressure and the partial oxygen pressure (PpO2) reduce by about 6% every 500m of elevation.

A very interesting study (J.Appl.Physiol. 1996;80:2204-2210) verified in laboratory how 11 elite cyclists (VO2max = 77ml/kg/min) presented an average decrease in their VO2max by 6.8% at an altitude of 580 m, compared to sea level values.

It is therefore opportune to consider also the average altitude of the climb when comparing VAM's obtained at different elevations; the intrinsic values of a VAM done on a climb starting at 200m asl and ending at 1200m asl (average altitude of 700m) and one done on a climb starting at 1000m asl and ending at 1800m asl (average altitude of 1400m) will differ greatly.

A difference in average altitude of 700m means a reduction of PpO2 of 8%.
In reality the performance on the road will "only" decrease by about 5%, because of a more rarefied air that reduces air drag for the cyclist and friction in respiration (less dense air).

I think it is reasonable to evaluate an average reduction in VAM values by approximately 3% every 500m of elevation, while still considering individual variations due to efficiency in pulmonary gaseous exchanges.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:


If you've followed Wiggins at all, you'll know he's clean.
I corrected your post.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [solarberg] [ In reply to ]
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it is reasonable to evaluate an average reduction in VAM values by approximately 3% every 500m of elevation, while still considering individual variations due to efficiency in pulmonary gaseous exchanges.
A point I thought worth emphasizing...
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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I'm usually the last person to scream "DOPE!", but from watching previous tours and seeing the performance of those who were later caught doping, Contador is either the best climber in the world or is beating the drug tests (which from what I heard would be possible, but expensive and not without consequence.

I'm just glad (from an outside observer's POV) cycling is getting cleaner.


Ryan
Engineer. Duathlete. Roadie. Human.
CAPA Cycling
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [DuGuy] [ In reply to ]
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I'm just glad (from an outside observer's POV) cycling is getting cleaner.

Fixed your post for you too.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Alex Simmons] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:

It is much more sensitive to mass, gradient, speed and wind assumptions. And it would appear that none of those assumptions have been properly validated.

There was certainly a strong tail wind up the base of the valley to the start of the final 8 km last Sunday. As for the climb itself I'm not so sure. I rode up it before the Tour arrived, and, overall, conditions felt pretty easy and I don't remember any problematic headwind. Since it switch backs there may also have been varying wind throughout its course.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [FJB] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks for that.

;)


Ryan
Engineer. Duathlete. Roadie. Human.
CAPA Cycling
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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You're not alone. Lemond doubts the credibility of Contador, too and in today's interview- he refused to answer plenty pertinent questions.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/...nning-time-trial-win

LeMond, who writes an opinion piece in France's Le Monde newspaper during the Tour, questioned Contador's performance on the final climb to Verbier on stage 15, which the Spaniard won ahead of Andy Schleck by 43 seconds and took over the race lead. The climb came at the end of a 207.5-kilometre stage that also held five other categorised climbs.

"Alberto Contador established a speed record: he went up the 8.5 km climb in 20:55. How to explain such a performance?" wrote LeMond. "He would have required a VO2 max [maximal oxygen consumption] of 99.5 ml / min / kg to produce the effort. To my knowledge, this is a figure that has never been achieved by any athlete in any sport.

"It is like a Mercedes sedan winning a on a Formula 1 circuit. There is something wrong. It would be interesting to know what's under the hood."

Two journalists, one from Le Monde newspaper, asked Contador his VO2 max. Contador refused to answer the questions.

LeMond based his article on data from former Festina trainer and specialist in performance, Antoine Vayer. He said the burden is on Contador to prove he is capable of his performance without the use of drugs.

"Given the recent history of our sport, doubt is required. It should lead us to ask ourselves about performances."

LeMond believes that cycling can use performance tests such as VO2 max to create rider profiles and detected if a rider has doped. He said it would be similar to how the International Cycling Union's tracks blood values in its biological passport it introduced at the beginning of 2008.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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at least he's consistant in his questioning results.

He doubts everyone but himself ;)


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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LeMond, who writes an opinion piece in France's Le Monde newspaper during the Tour, questioned Contador's performance on the final climb to Verbier on stage 15, which the Spaniard won ahead of Andy Schleck by 43 seconds and took over the race lead.

Here is lemond's article (in french.) Babelfish it if you're interested.
http://www.lemonde.fr/...nd_1221871_3242.html



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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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I love Lemond, but he thinks everyone is on dope. And he may be right. If there is still serious drug use, I don't think it would be just one or two of the top. It's probably all or none, and none of us will know unless someone gets caught. Just relax and enjoy folks.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Maybe Lemond forgot that a big-ass tailwind helps quite a bit. Doesn't look like he rides enough anymore to relate to the aid provided by a strong tailwind, especially for a tiny guy like Alberto.

I guess this counts as another Tour that Lemond would have, could have won...who has the link that that?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [remnfa] [ In reply to ]
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This is pretty crazy- from the Lemond article in Lemonde.... and very easy to come to the sad conclusion that 100% of the cyclists do the same thing- regardless of their marketing gimickry- as the sport has only gotten faster.

At the time of the Festina lawsuit, in 2000, in Lille, of testimonys had made the point that cyclists with VO2 max in the 70 were able to carry them to approximately 90. This jump of performance was so important that no clean cyclist then could compete. If one had used the method evaluation of V02 max, one could have noted the intensive use of the EPO and the blood transfusions in the group well before these practices are not also deeply anchored in our sport. This is why I remain dubitative vis-a-vis any performance which appears too good to be true
Last edited by: mlinenb: Jul 23, 09 13:43
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:
In Reply To:
Do you think Ferrari is not intimately familiar with numerous top riders wattage data- such as Lance?

I already told you what I thought of Ferrari...he's a quack...and he also plays loosey-goosey with the power numbers he throws around.


In Reply To:
On a different note- This is the first public rider comment that maybe thought (sadly thought) that this year would be a clean(er) tour.... how naive can he be?

from velonews.com
The yellow jersey crossed a minute later, the balance of power unaltered between Saxo and Astana. The real loser on the day was Evans, who finished 46th on the day, nearly three minutes behind Contador.
"I'm out of it," the two-time Tour runner-up said. "I'm out of the race. For a place on the podium at least."
The Silence-Lotto rider then added, cryptically: "Physically, everything (is) fine. But for professional reasons I can't comment on the problems I've been having."

Oh please...he most likely didn't want to say "Well...once again my team wouldn't pony up the money to get me some real help in the mountains. My team sucks."
I don't disagree with your statement, as Cadel has a record of ripping apart his teammates and their (lack of) athletic ability. That's why his statement is interesting- why hold back now if it was an attack against his teammates versus something else.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/...5826914-2722,00.html

Hehe...looks like I was fairly prescient the other day about Cadel and his comments...he HAS given up on them ;-)



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
This is pretty crazy- from the Lemond article in Lemonde.... and very easy to come to the sad conclusion that 100% of the cyclists do the same thing- regardless of their marketing gimickry- as the sport has only gotten faster.

At the time of the Festina lawsuit, in 2000, in Lille, of testimonys had made the point that cyclists with VO2 max in the 70 were able to carry them to approximately 90. This jump of performance was so important that no clean cyclist then could compete. If one had used the method evaluation of V02 max, one could have noted the intensive use of the EPO and the blood transfusions in the group well before these practices are not also deeply anchored in our sport. This is why I remain dubitative vis-a-vis any performance which appears too good to be true

I think Mr. LeMond needs to look at Mr. Vayer's calculations and, more importantly, his assumptions (the important one being the correlation, or lack thereof, between FTP and VO2max) with perhaps the same level of skepticism he applies to athlete's performances...



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:
This is pretty crazy- from the Lemond article in Lemonde.... and very easy to come to the sad conclusion that 100% of the cyclists do the same thing- regardless of their marketing gimickry- as the sport has only gotten faster.

At the time of the Festina lawsuit, in 2000, in Lille, of testimonys had made the point that cyclists with VO2 max in the 70 were able to carry them to approximately 90. This jump of performance was so important that no clean cyclist then could compete. If one had used the method evaluation of V02 max, one could have noted the intensive use of the EPO and the blood transfusions in the group well before these practices are not also deeply anchored in our sport. This is why I remain dubitative vis-a-vis any performance which appears too good to be true

I think Mr. LeMond needs to look at Mr. Vayer's calculations and, more importantly, his assumptions (the important one being the correlation, or lack thereof, between FTP and VO2max) with perhaps the same level of skepticism he applies to athlete's performances...
Lemond's article- mentioned testimony given in the Festina Lawsuit. I assume testimony is given by witness or expert witnesses in the court of law. Lemond is not making the conclusions- but stating what a court case found. Take Lemond out of this, Tom A. Once again- it's time to view the forest- versus focusing on a tree.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Lemond's article- mentioned testimony given in the Festina Lawsuit. I assume testimony is given by witness or expert witnesses in the court of law. Lemond is not making the conclusions- but stating what a court case found. Take Lemond out of this, Tom A. Once again- it's time to view the forest- versus focusing on a tree.

Ummm...have you ever sat on a jury where "experts" gave testimony? I have. If you did, then like me you probably heard "experts" give testimony that was almost 180 degrees from each other. Shows the value of "expert testimony" in a court case as being valid just because it was entered in the record, huh?

Me? I think I'll go with the science, rather than the unexamined "expert testimony" in this particular situation.

Why do you keep ignoring that the underpinning's of Vayer's estimates are faulty? Especially since LeMond bases his criticisms on those estimates? If that's the "tree" you're accusing me of focusing on, well...you'd better stop looking at that "forest" so much so you don't go bonkin' your head walking straight into "trees" like that ;-)



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
You're not alone. Lemond doubts the credibility of Contador, too and in today's interview- he refused to answer plenty pertinent questions.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/...nning-time-trial-win

LeMond, who writes an opinion piece in France's Le Monde newspaper during the Tour, questioned Contador's performance on the final climb to Verbier on stage 15, which the Spaniard won ahead of Andy Schleck by 43 seconds and took over the race lead. The climb came at the end of a 207.5-kilometre stage that also held five other categorised climbs.

"Alberto Contador established a speed record: he went up the 8.5 km climb in 20:55. How to explain such a performance?" wrote LeMond. "He would have required a VO2 max [maximal oxygen consumption] of 99.5 ml / min / kg to produce the effort. To my knowledge, this is a figure that has never been achieved by any athlete in any sport.

"It is like a Mercedes sedan winning a on a Formula 1 circuit. There is something wrong. It would be interesting to know what's under the hood."

Two journalists, one from Le Monde newspaper, asked Contador his VO2 max. Contador refused to answer the questions.

LeMond based his article on data from former Festina trainer and specialist in performance, Antoine Vayer. He said the burden is on Contador to prove he is capable of his performance without the use of drugs.

"Given the recent history of our sport, doubt is required. It should lead us to ask ourselves about performances."

LeMond believes that cycling can use performance tests such as VO2 max to create rider profiles and detected if a rider has doped. He said it would be similar to how the International Cycling Union's tracks blood values in its biological passport it introduced at the beginning of 2008.
Comments about the two parts in bold:

1) An extraordinarily poor analogy, it may be like Force India winning races. His analogy would be more along the lines of one of us winning the Tour

2) Two comments about the second one:

a) How sad is it that our society has come to this, guilty before proven innocent and never truly proven innocent in some peoples minds...an this is for all sports, just ask Beke.
b) If Greg is dead on then shouldn't he have to he was capable of his performances without the use of PED's?

Greg was the person who got me to start riding and racing back in the 80's but he really needs to step back gracefully.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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http://www.cyclingnews.com/...edibility-questioned

I actually think AC was being "kind" in his power estimate...by my reckoning, Vayer's estimate could be off by as much as 70-100W....

garbage in : garbage out



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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by my reckoning, Vayer's estimate could be off by as much as 70-100W....

If so, it wouldn't be the first time.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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by my reckoning, Vayer's estimate could be off by as much as 70-100W....

If so, it wouldn't be the first time.

...and yet, why do people keep taking his estimations as "gospel"? Is it because he's a former Festina doctor? Are those kinds of guys able to change the laws of physics?



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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http://www.cyclingnews.com/...edibility-questioned

I actually think AC was being "kind" in his power estimate...by my reckoning, Vayer's estimate could be off by as much as 70-100W....

garbage in : garbage out
You think everyone is being kind with their numbers. But AC thinks he could do 450 watts- and that's after 15 stages and the 3rd mt stage in a row. So 7.25 W/Kg 15 days in, that's mighty impressive. Lemond at only 5.7 W/Kg with a VO2 max of 92- would be relegated to water bottle carrying with today's speeds. AC doesn't address that the performance was 15 days into the tour, the 3rd mt stage, a clean rider would have lower HCT as the tour goes on, and I've read that athletes power drops 10-15% that far into the tour- b/c of decreased recovery, fatigue, and lower HCT, and having the climb 125 miles into the race. So- add back another 10-15%- and his clean power rested- would be 495 to 518 watts or 7.98 to 8.35 W/KG. AC's summary doesn't mention any of the preceding- but surmises: "That is still quite high, but not so high that you can definitively state that it can only be achieved via doping." Yeah right. Lemond has a valid point with his testing- as it would be interesting to truly see what's under his hood. Notice how GC guys never release the power or statistics anymore? It's not b/c it's a big secret from their competitors- it's b/c the press would have a hayday with it. Lastly- I feel that the playing field is level for all the GC guys and level for all the domestiques, etc.
Last edited by: mlinenb: Jul 23, 09 18:35
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Ivan Basso posts every workout he does, they are available @ mapei. Every workout, Giro stages if he used a powermeter, etc.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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This is pretty crazy- from the Lemond article in Lemonde.... and very easy to come to the sad conclusion that 100% of the cyclists do the same thing- regardless of their marketing gimickry- as the sport has only gotten faster.

At the time of the Festina lawsuit, in 2000, in Lille, of testimonys had made the point that cyclists with VO2 max in the 70 were able to carry them to approximately 90. This jump of performance was so important that no clean cyclist then could compete. If one had used the method evaluation of V02 max, one could have noted the intensive use of the EPO and the blood transfusions in the group well before these practices are not also deeply anchored in our sport. This is why I remain dubitative vis-a-vis any performance which appears too good to be true

I think Mr. LeMond needs to look at Mr. Vayer's calculations and, more importantly, his assumptions (the important one being the correlation, or lack thereof, between FTP and VO2max) with perhaps the same level of skepticism he applies to athlete's performances...
I think it's funny how you focus on the VO2 max numbers and how they got them- versus the fact that the testimony from the riders said you have to dope- just to compete- let alone attempt to do well.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Bnjmn] [ In reply to ]
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Ivan Basso posts every workout he does, they are available @ mapei. Every workout, Giro stages if he used a powermeter, etc.
and his performances are now a shadow of his former self.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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its not sad at all

it suggests that humans, stupid as they are, can learn from repeated instruction.

pro cyclists have repeatedly taught us that they use PEDs.

we the fans, most of us, have learned.


I admire your optimism,but I don't think it is rational.

In Reply To:
a) How sad is it that our society has come to this, guilty before proven innocent and never truly proven innocent in some peoples minds...an this is for all sports, just ask Beke.



Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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http://www.cyclingnews.com/...edibility-questioned

I actually think AC was being "kind" in his power estimate...

And/or lazy (i.e., there are so many uncertainties involved that it isn't worth the trouble to try to come up with a more precise estimate).

In Reply To:
by my reckoning, Vayer's estimate could be off by as much as 70-100W....

Vayer's estimate was actually 550 W, not the 490 W quoted by cyclingnews.com....so it would seem that we are in the same ballpark (which isn't very surprising, really).

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garbage in : garbage out

Well put.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Lemond's article- mentioned testimony given in the Festina Lawsuit. I assume testimony is given by witness or expert witnesses in the court of law. Lemond is not making the conclusions- but stating what a court case found. Take Lemond out of this, Tom A. Once again- it's time to view the forest- versus focusing on a tree.

Ummm...have you ever sat on a jury where "experts" gave testimony? I have. If you did, then like me you probably heard "experts" give testimony that was almost 180 degrees from each other. Shows the value of "expert testimony" in a court case as being valid just because it was entered in the record, huh?

Me? I think I'll go with the science, rather than the unexamined "expert testimony" in this particular situation.

Why do you keep ignoring that the underpinning's of Vayer's estimates are faulty? Especially since LeMond bases his criticisms on those estimates? If that's the "tree" you're accusing me of focusing on, well...you'd better stop looking at that "forest" so much so you don't go bonkin' your head walking straight into "trees" like that ;-)
Why is this always the criticism that is hurled at detail oriented people? What's that old joke about managers and engineers...


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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a) How sad is it that our society has come to this, guilty before proven innocent and never truly proven innocent in some peoples minds...an this is for all sports, just ask Beke.

It's not sad that 'our society' has come to this, it's sad that CYCLING has come to this. If you don't rationally assume that cycling is rife with cheaters/dopers, given the mountain of evidence to that effect, then you're either hopelessly naive, or worse yet have some sort of ulterior motive to protect dopers.

You can't look at the huge numbers of positive tests across all 'demographics' within cycling and not extend that to assuming that many if not most of the 'stars' of the sport are cheaters and dopers.

I love the sport enough that I can watch it and enjoy it while knowing that cheating is rampant and pervasive. I don't need to fool myself into thinking that cycling, or baseball, or MMA are clean, in order to be a passionate fan of any of them. Reality is what it is. Given the history of the sport and the present state of technology, it's likely that Contador is juiced to the gills. That's just a sad fact. Wishful thinking doesn't help the situation any.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [gbot] [ In reply to ]
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scottie may just be extremly noble.

that he will assume innocence until absolutely proven otherwise

even if it requires cognitive dissonance.

its not a totally crazy ethos really.


In Reply To:
In Reply To:
In Reply To:

a) How sad is it that our society has come to this, guilty before proven innocent and never truly proven innocent in some peoples minds...an this is for all sports, just ask Beke.

It's not sad that 'our society' has come to this, it's sad that CYCLING has come to this. If you don't rationally assume that cycling is rife with cheaters/dopers, given the mountain of evidence to that effect, then you're either hopelessly naive, or worse yet have some sort of ulterior motive to protect dopers.

You can't look at the huge numbers of positive tests across all 'demographics' within cycling and not extend that to assuming that many if not most of the 'stars' of the sport are cheaters and dopers.

I love the sport enough that I can watch it and enjoy it while knowing that cheating is rampant and pervasive. I don't need to fool myself into thinking that cycling, or baseball, or MMA are clean, in order to be a passionate fan of any of them. Reality is what it is. Given the history of the sport and the present state of technology, it's likely that Contador is juiced to the gills. That's just a sad fact. Wishful thinking doesn't help the situation any.



Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jackmott] [ In reply to ]
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I tend to think that there's no such thing as 'absolute' proof, and at some point you just have to step back and make assumptions based on the evidence you have. And when we're talking cycling, this is pretty easy given that we've got a massive mountain of evidence to draw on.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Vayer's estimate was actually 550 W, not the 490 W quoted by cyclingnews.com....so it would seem that we are in the same ballpark (which isn't very surprising, really).

Woah..how much does Vayer think Contador weighs??

Alex came up with an estimate of ~390-420W...which means that Vayer is off by ~150W. That's pretty bad.

You know, Sorenson's file of the climb is out there...one would think that would be the best source to "calibrate" AC's power estimate against. Yeah, it won't be super-accurate...but heck, I'm sure it'll be closer than 150W :-)



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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This is pretty crazy- from the Lemond article in Lemonde.... and very easy to come to the sad conclusion that 100% of the cyclists do the same thing- regardless of their marketing gimickry- as the sport has only gotten faster.

At the time of the Festina lawsuit, in 2000, in Lille, of testimonys had made the point that cyclists with VO2 max in the 70 were able to carry them to approximately 90. This jump of performance was so important that no clean cyclist then could compete. If one had used the method evaluation of V02 max, one could have noted the intensive use of the EPO and the blood transfusions in the group well before these practices are not also deeply anchored in our sport. This is why I remain dubitative vis-a-vis any performance which appears too good to be true

I think Mr. LeMond needs to look at Mr. Vayer's calculations and, more importantly, his assumptions (the important one being the correlation, or lack thereof, between FTP and VO2max) with perhaps the same level of skepticism he applies to athlete's performances...
Lemond's article- mentioned testimony given in the Festina Lawsuit. I assume testimony is given by witness or expert witnesses in the court of law. Lemond is not making the conclusions- but stating what a court case found. Take Lemond out of this, Tom A. Once again- it's time to view the forest- versus focusing on a tree.
Don't be so quick to hold up eyewitness testimony as truth. This is one of the main flaws within the judicial system.
http://agora.stanford.edu/...sher&tversky.htm
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [gbot] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:

a) How sad is it that our society has come to this, guilty before proven innocent and never truly proven innocent in some peoples minds...an this is for all sports, just ask Beke.

It's not sad that 'our society' has come to this, it's sad that CYCLING has come to this. If you don't rationally assume that cycling is rife with cheaters/dopers, given the mountain of evidence to that effect, then you're either hopelessly naive, or worse yet have some sort of ulterior motive to protect dopers.

You can't look at the huge numbers of positive tests across all 'demographics' within cycling and not extend that to assuming that many if not most of the 'stars' of the sport are cheaters and dopers.

I love the sport enough that I can watch it and enjoy it while knowing that cheating is rampant and pervasive. I don't need to fool myself into thinking that cycling, or baseball, or MMA are clean, in order to be a passionate fan of any of them. Reality is what it is. Given the history of the sport and the present state of technology, it's likely that Contador is juiced to the gills. That's just a sad fact. Wishful thinking doesn't help the situation any.
You did a fantastic job giving an example how pathetic and sad it is. Going on the attack against anyone who prefers to see guilt proven before condemning the person, using double standards (are you in fear of everyone as you walk the streets considering the mountain of evidence of the horrible things people do?) You can make all the assumptions you want and you can look at all the numbers you want but it doesn't make it any less sad that you feel a group of people don't deserve the same right to be innocent until proven guilty. It's a double standard. Who said anything about wishful thinking? Sounds to me like you like to make things up to help you feel superior to someone who doesn't buy into your double standard. All pro athletes might be doping (yes my comment was about all sports, not just cycling, but don't let that stand in the way) but let someone prove it before you convict someone. I that really such a horrible thing in your mind?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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(are you in fear of everyone as you walk the streets considering the mountain of evidence of the horrible things people do?) You can make all the assumptions you want and you can look at all the numbers you want but it doesn't make it any less sad that you feel a group of people don't deserve the same right to be innocent until proven guilty.

Work with statistics when it comes to cycling; the rate of positive tests to drugged up cyclists is terrible. If you had a similar conviction rate in every day court cases, well, we wouldn't have a problem with prison overcrowding!

The brushing under the carpet of Puerto hasn't helped.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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(are you in fear of everyone as you walk the streets considering the mountain of evidence of the horrible things people do?) You can make all the assumptions you want and you can look at all the numbers you want but it doesn't make it any less sad that you feel a group of people don't deserve the same right to be innocent until proven guilty.

Work with statistics when it comes to cycling; the rate of positive tests to drugged up cyclists is terrible. If you had a similar conviction rate in every day court cases, well, we wouldn't have a problem with prison overcrowding!

The brushing under the carpet of Puerto hasn't helped.
1) What is the percentage of positive results to cyclists?

2) Even if the rate is not the same does that mean that one group (pro athletes) do not deserve the opportunity to have to be proven guilty?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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I'd be happy to consider all athletes innocent until proven guilty, as soon as they (specially cyclists) agree to not only have urine, but also blood and hair tests as part of anti doping procedure, with the 'it's an invasion of privacy' argument.

Of course, that would also require a full revision of the anti doping procedure, and its agencies, with full transparency, independence, etc...
Not an easy task by any mean.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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From Ricco:
"They made 10 tests in about 13 legs - two were positive and in theory all the tests should have been positive. Therefore the method needs to be checked," he said.
That's a 20% success rate for a drug that they can actually detect!

When the dopers are not capable of being caught, then yes, it's perfectly reasonable to speculate as to who's dirty based on a range of factors. That's why we debate who's dirty and who's not.

I think I'm using your same logic in saying: if you see a cyclist taking drugs even though they never fail a test, they're innocent because they haven't failed a test?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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Of course, I meant 'without' not with the invasion of privacy argument...
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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From Ricco:
"They made 10 tests in about 13 legs - two were positive and in theory all the tests should have been positive. Therefore the method needs to be checked," he said.
That's a 20% success rate for a drug that they can actually detect!

When the dopers are not capable of being caught, then yes, it's perfectly reasonable to speculate as to who's dirty based on a range of factors. That's why we debate who's dirty and who's not.

I think I'm using your same logic in saying: if you see a cyclist taking drugs even though they never fail a test, they're innocent because they haven't failed a test?
So instead of posting the number of positives to the number of cyclists to defend your claim you post info that shows testing is unreliable so even when someone tests positive we can't trust it unless they admit it...yet you prefer to claim everyone is guilty until they do the impossible...prove they are innocent.

Francois- Do you live your whole life by double standards?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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Hardly a double standard 'scottie'...Proving that you're clean is nearly impossible, however, if you allowed for blood testing, you'd be able to test a lot more, and the doubts would be significantly lowered.

What would you think of a person on trial for rape who refuses to do a DNA test?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Francois] [ In reply to ]
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Hardly a double standard 'scottie'...Proving that you're clean is nearly impossible, however, if you allowed for blood testing, you'd be able to test a lot more, and the doubts would be significantly lowered.

What would you think of a person on trial for rape who refuses to do a DNA test?
Great example, are you willing to submit to a DNA test right now and other testing every day because people like you have been found guilty of rape?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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Francois- Do you live your whole life by double standards?

You know, if I were on an internet site and found myself making cheap shots and getting into arguments with almost every poster, I might reconsider some of my points of view and at the very least, how I am articulating my responses.

Just sayin.....
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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So instead of posting the number of positives to the number of cyclists to defend your claim ...
I really can't see what posting the number of cyclists compared to the number of positives would acheive. Should I include my gran in the number of cyclists? She cycled down to the village to get her hair cut last week.

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you post info that shows testing is unreliable so even when someone tests positive we can't trust it unless they admit it
No, my post shows that those who dope don't always come up positive.

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...yet you prefer to claim everyone is guilty until they do the impossible...prove they are innocent.
We are arguing the case here. He's not. It's a discussion. The outcome will not have any major effect for him.

Of course, it would have helped his case if he'd had his DNA sampled to prove he wasn't involved with Puerto...
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [FJB] [ In reply to ]
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Francois- Do you live your whole life by double standards?

You know, if I were on an internet site and found myself making cheap shots and getting into arguments with almost every poster, I might reconsider some of my points of view and at the very least, how I am articulating my responses.

Just sayin.....
Says the guy who gets into arguments all the time and spends most of his time on forums posting hate for one athlete. Take a look in the mirror.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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So instead of posting the number of positives to the number of cyclists to defend your claim ...
I really can't see what posting the number of cyclists compared to the number of positives would acheive. Should I include my gran in the number of cyclists? She cycled down to the village to get her hair cut last week.

You brought it up!
In Reply To:
you post info that shows testing is unreliable so even when someone tests positive we can't trust it unless they admit it
No, my post shows that those who dope don't always come up positive.
It also shows that the testing is not even close to 100% accurate.

In Reply To:
...yet you prefer to claim everyone is guilty until they do the impossible...prove they are innocent.
We are arguing the case here. He's not. It's a discussion. The outcome will not have any major effect for him.

Of course, it would have helped his case if he'd had his DNA sampled to prove he wasn't involved with Puerto...

Misdirection...very nice.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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It's a beautiful day today. 81 degrees, sunny, and I got to bike to work today with a run to follow after my bike commute home. Life is great and happy times abound. Koom-by-ah.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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and spends most of his time on forums posting hate for one athlete.

Please read my posts and then you can apologize for making an incorrect accusation.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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The accurate comparison is: if you were accused of rape, would you submit to a DNA test. And the answer is, yes, of course (unless I were guilty).

Your comparison about 'testing every day' doesn't hold water. My initial analogy was simply to point out that if there is a way to significantly reduce doubt and show that you're clean, why not do it?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Francois] [ In reply to ]
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I should have learned my lesson yesterday "francois" that you are just a closed minded troll. Enjoy your last word.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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Actually...Francois is my real name...And it seems you're the one disagreeing with everybody...moreover, you deleted your stupid post I was answering to...It was really funny...You're an idiot.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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You did a fantastic job giving an example how pathetic and sad it is. Going on the attack against anyone who prefers to see guilt proven before condemning the person, using double standards (are you in fear of everyone as you walk the streets considering the mountain of evidence of the horrible things people do?) You can make all the assumptions you want and you can look at all the numbers you want but it doesn't make it any less sad that you feel a group of people don't deserve the same right to be innocent until proven guilty. It's a double standard. Who said anything about wishful thinking? Sounds to me like you like to make things up to help you feel superior to someone who doesn't buy into your double standard. All pro athletes might be doping (yes my comment was about all sports, not just cycling, but don't let that stand in the way) but let someone prove it before you convict someone. I that really such a horrible thing in your mind?
I'm not 'convicting' anyone. I certainly don't think the UCI should ban Contador based on a bunch of posts on Slowtwitch. However, I still think he's dirty. That's my opinion and I'm absolutely allowed to share it with anyone who'll listen. It's up to you whether or not you believe me, that's the beauty of discussion and debate. An analogy - take a street gang. Many of its members have been convicted of various crimes such as murder, drug dealing, burglary, etc etc etc - including its leader and most of his direct subordinates. Stories abound of 'initiations' where a new member has to go commit some crime to prove he's dedicated to the gang and is worthy of becoming a member. All these gangsters are standing on the corner one day. One particular one has all the tattoos signifying membership - a bunch of neighbourhood apparently locals saw him waving a gun around the other day, and he certainly seems to be accepted within the group. Can the cops arrest and charge him for anything? Of course not. Are they justified in assuming he's a threat to the peace and a criminal that should be watched closely? ABSOLUTELY. Pro cyclists aren't out there shooting people or robbing convenience stores. But they are generally known to be cheats and dopers. Can you convict an individual one based on the general knowledge that pro cyclists are cheats and dopers? Of course not. But assuming that an individual who's a part of this group is VERY LIKELY a cheat and a doper is perfectly reasonable. Contador is PROBABLY juiced to the gills. All the evidence (Puerto, Astana/Bruyneel, the TT, etc etc) certainly points that way. Assuming that he's innocent because you don't have absolute lock-down proof (especially when there are undetectable drugs out there) is just silly.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [gbot] [ In reply to ]
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You forgot that he learned his stuff with Manolo Saiz...
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [gbot] [ In reply to ]
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It is what it is, i think the best we can do is hope that they're all clean but in reality we should alway question. But i'm going to continue watching as though they're all just beasts.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mreber] [ In reply to ]
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They are all beasts. And juiced.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Francois] [ In reply to ]
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Actually...Francois is my real name...And it seems you're the one disagreeing with everybody...moreover, you deleted your stupid post I was answering to...It was really funny...You're an idiot.
"I blow my nose at you, so-called 'Francois.'"


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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Great example, are you willing to submit to a DNA test right now and other testing every day because people like you have been found guilty of rape?[/reply]
Your whole argument is based on a comparison of the WADA/UCI testing program and a governmental criminal justice system. That's a spurious argument. WADA does not criminally prosecute. It has no obligation to the idea of "innocent until proven guilty." All it does is suspend or ban riders from professional cycling.

The domain of WADA is elite athletes. The domain of a criminal justice system is everyone in a government. To suggest that they should have equivalent standards would be so restrictive to WADA as to make it essentially useless. (and it could argued it's already pretty useless) There are plenty of precedents for organizations that hold themselves to different standards than the baseline criminal justice system. For example, when you join the U.S. military you voluntarily submit yourself to much higher standards of behavior (and much lower tolerance for drug use) than a private citizen. If my current employer asks me to give a urine sample, and I refuse, they can fire me. And it's their right because when I signed on I agreed to be drug tested if I demonstrated any behavior my employer believed to be abnormal. They don't have to prove my guilt, they can just fire me.

Why should WADA be any different? Particularly given the overwhelming evidence of doping in cycling over the past decade.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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So instead of posting the number of positives to the number of cyclists to defend your claim ...
I really can't see what posting the number of cyclists compared to the number of positives would acheive. Should I include my gran in the number of cyclists? She cycled down to the village to get her hair cut last week.
You brought it up!
I questioned the number of positive test results compared to the number of dirty riders. It was you who changed it to the number of positive results to the total number of cyclists.



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you post info that shows testing is unreliable so even when someone tests positive we can't trust it unless they admit it
No, my post shows that those who dope don't always come up positive.
It also shows that the testing is not even close to 100% accurate.[/reply]Only in that dopers don't get caught. To my knowledge, clean riders have never successfully proved their innocence after tested positive.



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Of course, it would have helped his case if he'd had his DNA sampled to prove he wasn't involved with Puerto...
Misdirection...very nice.
Not really; he hasn't taken the chance to prove that he's clean when he's had specific accusations levelled at him.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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His mother is a hampster and his father smells of elderberries!

***********************
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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So instead of posting the number of positives to the number of cyclists to defend your claim ...
I really can't see what posting the number of cyclists compared to the number of positives would acheive. Should I include my gran in the number of cyclists? She cycled down to the village to get her hair cut last week.
You brought it up!
I questioned the number of positive test results compared to the number of dirty riders. It was you who changed it to the number of positive results to the total number of cyclists.

My mistake, I misread what you wrote.



In Reply To:
In Reply To:
you post info that shows testing is unreliable so even when someone tests positive we can't trust it unless they admit it
No, my post shows that those who dope don't always come up positive.
It also shows that the testing is not even close to 100% accurate.
Only in that dopers don't get caught. To my knowledge, clean riders have never successfully proved their innocence after tested positive.

I'll post one name that is simple for this forum: Rutger Beke (keep in mind I started this off talking about all sports). Cases like his (where people still think he got away with doping), the LA tests of '99 (where people still say who cares about chain of custody) and even Landis (where he was guilty but the tests where done so poorly that he should have been let off) show exactly what I mean.

To say that your proof of inaccurate testing only shows that "dopers don't get caught" is simply a case of ignoring what doesn't fit your agenda. Inaccurate testing means innocent people get busted AND guilty people get away with it.



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Of course, it would have helped his case if he'd had his DNA sampled to prove he wasn't involved with Puerto...
Misdirection...very nice.
Not really; he hasn't taken the chance to prove that he's clean when he's had specific accusations levelled at him.[/reply] But how does that go along with this discussion?

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [trail] [ In reply to ]
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Great example, are you willing to submit to a DNA test right now and other testing every day because people like you have been found guilty of rape?

Your whole argument is based on a comparison of the WADA/UCI testing program and a governmental criminal justice system. That's a spurious argument. WADA does not criminally prosecute. It has no obligation to the idea of "innocent until proven guilty." All it does is suspend or ban riders from professional cycling.

The domain of WADA is elite athletes. The domain of a criminal justice system is everyone in a government. To suggest that they should have equivalent standards would be so restrictive to WADA as to make it essentially useless. (and it could argued it's already pretty useless) There are plenty of precedents for organizations that hold themselves to different standards than the baseline criminal justice system. For example, when you join the U.S. military you voluntarily submit yourself to much higher standards of behavior (and much lower tolerance for drug use) than a private citizen. If my current employer asks me to give a urine sample, and I refuse, they can fire me. And it's their right because when I signed on I agreed to be drug tested if I demonstrated any behavior my employer believed to be abnormal. They don't have to prove my guilt, they can just fire me.

Why should WADA be any different? Particularly given the overwhelming evidence of doping in cycling over the past decade.[/reply] I am not comparing them. I am using an analogy about people outside of those systems making deciding that people in certain groups are guilty first and then must prove their innocence only after being accused. (knowing that this is impossible.) Innocent until proven guilty is not specifically a criminal justice system etho, it is smething most ethical people use in their lives.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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I mean, really, who would call himself 'Francois'?

'Scottie18' is probably 18 so we should forgive him.

_________________________________________________
CAMPAGNOLO GRAN FONDO NEW YORK
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [uli] [ In reply to ]
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I mean, really, who would call himself 'Francois'?

'Scottie18' is probably 18 so we should forgive him.
So close Uli, but about 20 years off. That was the number I have always worn in sports....and Scottie is my real name, so I put Frankie's name in quotes like he did to mine, clearly it ruffled his feathers...and Jordans and yours.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [uli] [ In reply to ]
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Geee...how about oolee...what kind of name is that?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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They deserve the right to have to be proven guilty before they go to jail or lose their job.

They do not deserve the right for the public to think they are clean, before proven guilty.

That is a right they must EARN

In Reply To:
1) What is the percentage of positive results to cyclists?

2) Even if the rate is not the same does that mean that one group (pro athletes) do not deserve the opportunity to have to be proven guilty?



Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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I don't have feathers, nor do Jordan and Ooolee. You're overly optimistic if you think that something like this would piss me off (or Jordan or Uli)...Well, clearly, you're an overly optimistic person, so at least, you're consistent.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jackmott] [ In reply to ]
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Paula Radcliffe does everything she can to ensure that people know her performances are legit.
Takes urine and blood samples, have them analyzed, or stored for when better testing becomes available. She says it's a hassle, but it's worth it.
Why wouldn't Lance, Alberto, etc do that as well, even for just 6 months? 4 months before the Tour, during the Tour and the following weeks.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Francois] [ In reply to ]
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Just a reply to the entire thread.

Just thinking about it more after watching 'Le Tour' yesterday.

Depending on ones frame of mind, they are dopers or they aren't.


They dope testers could just test the top 3 athletes and that would be enough to know if drugs are being used. My understanding is that they do target these positions.

I think the bans for positive tests need to be much harsher.


It is interesting though thinking about whether a person would submit to a DNA test. I have watched a few high profile rape/murder cases in the N.Z. news and I do find it a bit of a worry that people get convicted on a hair quite often. My two concerns are that it would be easy for the cops to plant such evidence and also you wouldn't want to have been anywhere near the victim.

A bit like saying someone is teammates with dopers so that makes them a doper. Well not quite the same but it is all very circumspect.


G.
www.TriathlonShots.com

http://www.TriathlonShots.com
Full event coverage of triathlon/ironman in photos.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Francois] [ In reply to ]
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Geee...how about oolee...what kind of name is that?
Wrong pronounciation but you do indeed have a point. :P

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CAMPAGNOLO GRAN FONDO NEW YORK
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jackmott] [ In reply to ]
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They deserve the right to have to be proven guilty before they go to jail or lose their job.

They do not deserve the right for the public to think they are clean, before proven guilty.

That is a right they must EARN

In Reply To:
1) What is the percentage of positive results to cyclists?

2) Even if the rate is not the same does that mean that one group (pro athletes) do not deserve the opportunity to have to be proven guilty?


Why must someone who has never done anything wrong prove he is innocent simply because of his profession?

What do you do for a living? Would you be ok with this standard being used for you?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [triathlonshots] [ In reply to ]
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A bit like saying someone is teammates with dopers so that makes them a doper. Well not quite the same but it is all very circumspect.

Unless you consider what we know about systematic doping.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Vayer's estimate was actually 550 W, not the 490 W quoted by cyclingnews.com....so it would seem that we are in the same ballpark (which isn't very surprising, really).

Woah..how much does Vayer think Contador weighs??

Alex came up with an estimate of ~390-420W...which means that Vayer is off by ~150W. That's pretty bad.

You know, Sorenson's file of the climb is out there...one would think that would be the best source to "calibrate" AC's power estimate against. Yeah, it won't be super-accurate...but heck, I'm sure it'll be closer than 150W :-)

Getting back to the original thread... - where you and RChung mention the calculations are flawed, it's hard to compare, assumptions are wrong-, weights are wrong, winds aren't right, people hit publish way too quickly. etc. LA, himself- confirms that at HIS BEST- Contador would have kicked his butt. Lance is a data / power nut. LA KNOWS CONTADORS power. He KNOWS his POWER and he knows both riders weights. Lance knows his W/Kg... case closed. Which tree do you want to pick apart on this one? :) I know it will be hard for you and RCHUNG to read this interview- so feel free to pass... ;)

Lance is taking a page out of Lemond's book, too- he won a virtual 8 tours- if he raced in 2008.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk:80/...g/article6725620.ece July 24, 2009

That, at least, was the preconception. For the first time since he started winning this race, the seven-times champion has had his athletic limitations unarguably exposed. And yes, he is a 37-year-old on a comeback and his achievements here, by normal standards, would be considered astounding.
Over the course of an hour, he makes some fairly astonishing claims: that he mistimed his comeback by a year because his present form would have won him the Tour in 2008; that Alberto Contador, with whom he has done battle this year and to whom he now concedes defeat, is a faster climber than he ever was.
Most astonishing of all, though, is not his bright, delighted-to-see-you, post-race demeanour, but the contention that losing does not really hurt.

I think people expect me to be devastated when I was ridden away from, he said. It's not that way. You see, despite being two minutes down, it wasn't life or death like it perhaps was before. Interesting perspective from the team that night after Verbier [on Sunday, when he could not keep pace with Contador]: people expected me to be just devastated. And the messages I got on my phone: 'Is it OK?'
Of course I'd like to be winning. I came with the intention of winning, but we did the race, we went up hard hills and people rode away. I'm cool with that.

But you cannot be, comes the contention. You are the alpha male of alpha males, seven unbeaten and now fallible, this is surely hell on two wheels? For those seven years it would have been, but not now, he said. I have no regrets at all. I've got no reason to lie.
The yellow jersey out of reach and Armstrong happy; chew on that as you will, we will return to the subject. But this is how it felt to concede defeat; there were shreds of evidence, but none as conclusive as Sunday up to Verbier.
That was the first true test, he said. I followed a couple of attacks and I was on the ropes. I knew that I was just going to be surviving. And in this game when you get on the ropes, you get into debt and, on an uphill finish, it's hard to come back.
My problem - not that it's a problem - the issue has been the red line, the fifth gear, for whatever reason, age, time away, or you could theorise. Today, when I get on the bike, I feel fresh, but I don't have that punch. I don't have that acceleration, that high-end speed on the climbs which I had before. So the last two mountain stages [after Verbier] I just followed my tempo and not those attacks.
Were you therein admitting that you could no longer win? I'm not going to do an Alpe d'Huez 2001 [one of his great climbs], not this year, it's just not going to happen, he said. I'll be 38 next year so there's no promises then, but I'll give it a shot.
Next year, indeed, is fascinating, as is Armstrong's candour on the subject of Contador. The Texan's decision to return was based largely on watching last year's Tour, from which Contador was absent - the level I have today would have won '08, he said - but on that road to Verbier, he encountered a man who was faster than I ever was. That performance would have ridden away from me on Alpe d'Huez 2001. He's very hard to beat.
So if you acknowledge that there is now another rider - Contador - indisputably superior, why put yourself through more punishment? I think the smartest guys in the room would say that next year I ought to be better because I'll have a season under my belt and I don't think between 37 and 38 is the tipping point where you head for the nursing home, he said.
Armstrong says that the time away might have cost him that fifth gear. Perhaps I'm just being optimistic, he said. And he feels that Aspen, Colorado, was not the ideal training ground, but that might be me dreaming s*** up. But look, I'll work hard for next year and if I get ridden away from again, it's all right, he said.
While it may not need to be accentuated that this all-smiling global icon is not exactly behaving to type, bear in mind that it is not only here in the Palace de Menthon that the charm offensive has been waged.
In the past, he concedes, he has been pretty hard on people who got in his way. Definitely in the past, he said. Before, I would tell the guys in the team, 'You're not talking to anybody. We're here to race, three weeks; you can talk to your friends afterwards.' Now the rest of the peloton see me and think, 'He actually talks to us!'
A reminder of Armstrong's old standing in the Tour de France is his acknowledgement of the reaction of ASO, the French owner of the Tour, to his desire to return to the event. I wouldn't say that they were thrilled with the idea, he said. If Patrice Clerc [head of the Tour until January] was still in charge of ASO, it's safe to say I wouldn't be here.
The starkest example of how far Armstrong has gone to cuddle old enemies was his insistence that his pre-stage daily interviews on Versus TV, the American broadcaster, be with Frankie Andreu. This raises interesting questions: Armstrong and Andreu had been long-term team-mates but, in 2006, when called as a witness in a case that Armstrong had taken against a company over a $5 million (now about 3 million) bonus they were refusing to pay, Andreu gave evidence against Armstrong.
The litigation raised the question whether Armstrong might have used illegal performance-enhancing drugs and Andreu gave evidence about what appeared to have been a mea culpa by Armstrong while he was ill in hospital with cancer. Armstrong vehemently denied Andreu's claims and won the case. But the fact was that, from two years before the case until the present Tour, Armstrong and Andreu barely exchanged a word.
Why, then, ask Andreu to interview him daily? I don't have anything against Frankie, personally, Armstrong said. It's been a pleasure. Frankie's a good guy.
Is it not the case that it looks good for you to be seen being friendly with Andreu? If he called me off the record and said, 'Hey, let's go have a beer, I'd say yeah,' he said. Maybe it's part of the same thing that's changed from before. I'm more relaxed about this stuff and that's an authentic answer, it's not a game
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Getting back to the original thread... - where you and RChung mention the calculations are flawed, it's hard to compare, assumptions are wrong-, weights are wrong, winds aren't right, people hit publish way too quickly. etc.

We aren't the only ones BTW...

http://www.sportsscientists.com/...contador-vo2max.html

Hmmm...it looks like the guys who basically started this whole "hub-bub" are basically at the point that they agree with my original assessment that Alex's estimations are most likely the closest to the "truth".


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LA, himself- confirms that at HIS BEST- Contador would have kicked his butt. Lance is a data / power nut. LA KNOWS CONTADORS power. He KNOWS his POWER and he knows both riders weights. Lance knows his W/Kg... case closed. Which tree do you want to pick apart on this one? :) I know it will be hard for you and RCHUNG to read this interview- so feel free to pass... ;)

What's your point? Why would it be hard for me to read? Nothing he says in there relates to whether or not what AC did on Verbier was "believable" or not. If you don't think that 420W power output for a 20 minute climb isn't achievable "naturally aspirated" from a world class climber, well then...you probably haven't looked at too many power files, have you?

Dang...you just ran into another tree. If you keep doing it, that's going to leave a mark... ;-)



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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They don't have to. None of them do, they get paid and have fun and we still watch and all is well.

As a software developer I would be ok with any rational assumptions being made about my peer group.

I do in fact, drink a lot of caffeine...

In Reply To:

Why must someone who has never done anything wrong prove he is innocent simply because of his profession?

What do you do for a living? Would you be ok with this standard being used for you?



Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:

Getting back to the original thread... - where you and RChung mention the calculations are flawed, it's hard to compare, assumptions are wrong-, weights are wrong, winds aren't right, people hit publish way too quickly. etc. LA, himself- confirms that at HIS BEST- Contador would have kicked his butt. Lance is a data / power nut. LA KNOWS CONTADORS power. He KNOWS his POWER and he knows both riders weights. Lance knows his W/Kg... case closed. Which tree do you want to pick apart on this one? :) I know it will be hard for you and RCHUNG to read this interview- so feel free to pass... ;)

Lance is taking a page out of Lemond's book, too- he won a virtual 8 tours- if he raced in 2008.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk:80/...g/article6725620.ece July 24, 2009

[..]

I'm not going to do an Alpe d'Huez 2001 [one of his great climbs], not this year, it's just not going to happen, he said.

Well, glad you brought up that 2001 Alpe d'Huez quote. Here's the graphic that you linked to earlier, with Vayer's estimate for 2004:

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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If you don't think that 420W power output for a 20 minute climb isn't achievable "naturally aspirated" from a world class climber, well then...you probably haven't looked at too many power files, have you? \\

Bjorn has done I believe about 455 watts for 45 minutes here on our climb..Granted he has to pull a lot more weight than Contador, and thus has the ability to generate more power overall, but it is still a big number. I have no trouble believing that Contador can hold 420 watts for 20 minutes. I will not spectulate on how he does it though, I just hope that most the guys are riding clean these days. I know for Lance, it wouldn't just be some positve that put him out for two years, it would ruin his entire career, his ability to head the Livestrong foundation, and his future plans whatever they are. It is a really big deal for him, so I am assuming that he would not take any risk there. It would not be a David Millar, or De Luca, or Tyler, or or even Floyd type of bust. It would be more like a Ben Johnson scenario, gone from the public eye forever in shame. I honestly do not think he would risk it all now for what just seems like him having some fun again....
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:

Getting back to the original thread... - where you and RChung mention the calculations are flawed, it's hard to compare, assumptions are wrong-, weights are wrong, winds aren't right, people hit publish way too quickly. etc.

We aren't the only ones BTW...

http://www.sportsscientists.com/...contador-vo2max.html

Hmmm...it looks like the guys who basically started this whole "hub-bub" are basically at the point that they agree with my original assessment that Alex's estimations are most likely the closest to the "truth".


In Reply To:
LA, himself- confirms that at HIS BEST- Contador would have kicked his butt. Lance is a data / power nut. LA KNOWS CONTADORS power. He KNOWS his POWER and he knows both riders weights. Lance knows his W/Kg... case closed. Which tree do you want to pick apart on this one? :) I know it will be hard for you and RCHUNG to read this interview- so feel free to pass... ;)

What's your point? Why would it be hard for me to read? Nothing he says in there relates to whether or not what AC did on Verbier was "believable" or not. If you don't think that 420W power output for a 20 minute climb isn't achievable "naturally aspirated" from a world class climber, well then...you probably haven't looked at too many power files, have you?

Dang...you just ran into another tree. If you keep doing it, that's going to leave a mark... ;-)
show me a W/Kg power file of a rider that's 7.25 W/Kg 2 weeks into a grand tour for a 22 minute climb. I know you dismiss Lemond- but he said riders and himself (with his own power data)- are about 10-15% weaker as the tour progresses (for CLEAN riders)- b/c of fatigue, reduced recovery, and reduced Hematacrit levels- and research backs this up, too- especially for a climb at the end of a stage. Coggan's statement didn't reflect any of this, either. So if Contador is clean and rested- he should be about 10-15% higher for his W/Kg- so maybe it's easier for you to show a file (as I'm sure you've seen many from your statement)- of a rider producing 8.34 W/Kg for a 22 minute stretch. Feel free to share it with the forum, Tom A. (and you can keep the rider anomynous).
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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I know you dismiss Lemond- but he said riders and himself (with his own power data)- are about 10-15% weaker as the tour progresses (for CLEAN riders)- b/c of fatigue, reduced recovery, and reduced Hematacrit levels- and research backs this up, too-\\

I don't know about the resarch on this, and Lemond's statements are from a time when power meters were in the dark ages, so I would not trust any of that data as accurate. Hell, there was probably a +/- on those things of 10% to 15 %.

What I do know is that a lot of riders go into the tour at a level they call fresh. They are not shaved and tapered for day one. They plan to ride into shape at some point, and become stronger as the tour progresses. I have only done an 8 day stage race, but I can attest that I did some of my best climbing late in that race, climbing I could not do in a one day race. Secondly, even if those numbers have some validity, they are not across the board. There will be a bell curve, so riders going worse, and some going better, with outlyers on both ends. I would expect that the biggest possibility of an outlyer on the positve end, would be the guy that is not only the strongest, but has done the least amount of work comparitivly. I think we all know who is the strongest rider is, and has only had to break his own wind at the end of one stage, and the tt's. So one could assume that Contador has the best possibility of being that outlyer at the positive end since he has done the least amount of work as compared to most of the others. He is the only guy in the race who has not been dropped, so we can assume he has not gone to the well too often, if at all. (besides the tt's)

So trying to pin this formula of yours on a paticular guy I think is just nonsense....
Last edited by: monty: Jul 24, 09 14:56
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:
They deserve the right to have to be proven guilty before they go to jail or lose their job.

They do not deserve the right for the public to think they are clean, before proven guilty.

That is a right they must EARN

In Reply To:
1) What is the percentage of positive results to cyclists?

2) Even if the rate is not the same does that mean that one group (pro athletes) do not deserve the opportunity to have to be proven guilty?
Why must someone who has never done anything wrong prove he is innocent simply because of his profession?

What do you do for a living? Would you be ok with this standard being used for you?

I think jack put it best in another thread, as for the concept of 'Innocent until proven guilty':

This is a concept which americans and others decided to apply as a legal standard.

Not something to regulate opinions.

Would you let an accused, but not yet convicted, child molestor babysit your kids?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Bum] [ In reply to ]
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Hmmm. I bet Billy Mills 10K in Tokyo doesn't sit well either. Dude goes through the 5K 1 second off his PR, and holds it for another 5K, beating the world champ, winning the gold medal, and PRing by nearly 2 minutes. Sometimes these guys really are this good. Too bad we now never know if they are legit. That's the real damage that dopers do to sport.

can't watch that w/o goose bumps.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7A_QUlMbvY
4:56 in.

Dave Koesel � General Manager 3T US
dave.koesel A 3Tcycling.com
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
show me a W/Kg power file of a rider that's 7.25 W/Kg 2 weeks into a grand tour for a 22 minute climb. I know you dismiss Lemond- but he said riders and himself (with his own power data)- are about 10-15% weaker as the tour progresses (for CLEAN riders)- b/c of fatigue, reduced recovery, and reduced Hematacrit levels- and research backs this up, too- especially for a climb at the end of a stage. Coggan's statement didn't reflect any of this, either. So if Contador is clean and rested- he should be about 10-15% higher for his W/Kg- so maybe it's easier for you to show a file (as I'm sure you've seen many from your statement)- of a rider producing 8.34 W/Kg for a 22 minute stretch. Feel free to share it with the forum, Tom A. (and you can keep the rider anomynous).
I'm not sure where you get 7.25 w/kg from? Contador is 60kg. So even at 420, that's a max of 7 w/kg. And 420 may not even be correct. It is entirely possible it was "only" 390, which would net out to 6.5 w/kg. But even 7w/kg is plenty reasonable for a world class climber for that duration. And that's assuming he's not 61 or 62kg, which is basically the "same" as 60kg to reporters, but which makes a pretty big difference when you are calculating w/kg.

Lemond's assertion about fatigue is impossible to prove, because folks do differing amounts of work, have different muscle mass (a smaller rider will recover faster, since they have less muscle mass). It also ignores non-PED forms of enhanced recovery. Look at the compression gear; compression machines; improvements in diet with respect to things like anti-inflammatory foods, anti-oxidants, etc. A lot more is known about recovery now than when Lemond was racing. An interesting take on this, for example, is Christian Vandevelde's article on VeloNews on the changes to his diet - one of the major changes was eliminating gluten. Considering how popular the pasta-based "carbo-load" was (and is), that sort of change is massive. All of those things would make a big difference to accumulated fatigue over the course of a grand tour.

I was initially quite disturbed by the VAM numbers, until others pointed out how much virtually every other rider on that climb smashed VAM records by. When you distill it down to w/kg, it doesn't seem nearly as remarkable, especially when you consider how sheltered Contador has been for the entire tour.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Francois] [ In reply to ]
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Why wouldn't Lance, Alberto, etc do that as well, even for just 6 months? 4 months before the Tour, during the Tour and the following weeks.

That's a very good question and once I would think Lance would be the first to do since he has heard the rumors for years. If it were me, I would insist they test me both in competition and out and I certainly would be as accomodating as I could and without first blaming the French labs, threatening lawsuits, or taking extended showers.

Didn't Lance promise to have his tests posted on the internet or something? What happened with that?
Last edited by: FJB: Jul 24, 09 16:01
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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Why must someone who has never done anything wrong prove he is innocent simply because of his profession?

What do you do for a living? Would you be ok with this standard being used for you?


If people made accusations against me and I knew I was innocent, I certainly would volunteer to be tested.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [monty] [ In reply to ]
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--
I don't know about the resarch on this, and Lemond's statements are from a time when power meters were in the dark ages, so I would not trust any of that data as accurate. Hell, there was probably a +/- on those things of 10% to 15 %.
--

SRM powermeters have been around for decades. Lemond was an early adopter. They were accurate.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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--
I'm not sure where you get 7.25 w/kg from? Contador is 60kg. So even at 420, that's a max of 7 w/kg. And 420 may not even be correct. It is entirely possible it was "only" 390, which would net out to 6.5 w/kg. But even 7w/kg is plenty reasonable for a world class climber for that duration. And that's assuming he's not 61 or 62kg, which is basically the "same" as 60kg to reporters, but which makes a pretty big difference when you are calculating w/kg.
--

Thanks for correcting me. Coggan surmised it would be 450 watts- so 450/60= 7.5 W/Kg. So his numbers are even more impressive. Pre - EPO no one has ever come close to those numbers. Bottom Line- everyone is debating what the power is/wattage was- it was probably one of the best ascents of ALL time. Lance himself- said at his best- he never would have been able to stay with Contador. If you are no longer suspicious- when Lance at his best- had riders 2-5 banned for drug usage, and Lance testing positive for EPO when he was weaker (tour 1999)- than- that's your opinion.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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--Quote--
What's your point? Why would it be hard for me to read? Nothing he says in there relates to whether or not what AC did on Verbier was "believable" or not. If you don't think that 420W power output for a 20 minute climb isn't achievable "naturally aspirated" from a world class climber, well then...you probably haven't looked at too many power files, have you?

Dang...you just ran into another tree. If you keep doing it, that's going to leave a mark... ;-)
--------

Again- Lance at his best said he wouldn't be able to keep up. So- it appears that you have 'many power files' that have better W/Kg for comparable conditions leading up to // including the 22 minute climb. Maybe you should tell those riders to ride in the TdF- as it seems like they aren't. Feel free to share any of these files. Am I still running into trees?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Maybe there's a difference between 'insinuate' and 'imply', but - to me - it reads as though you ARE insinuating that AC is doping. If you weren't saying that, you wouldn't say it is 'troubling that Contador is so much faster than folks who did'; instead, you'd probably hail it as heaven-sent proof that one doesn't have to dope to set records in a discipline that has, historically, given every appearance of being impossible to excel in without the aid of drugs. Your comparison to the swimsuit issue treads the same line: by putting the data in the context that you suggest, you ask a leading question.

For example, if one said that Contador - described by most authorities as the best climber in the world - had beaten a group of riders who have undergone a greater number of better tests than any other group in sporting history by a range of 45 seconds to 1:33 over terrain which precisely suited his talents, ones interlocutor might not be tremendously surprised. If one went on to say that a couple of the riders in the group behind were not going full gas (because they're team-mates with the first man up the hill), and the margin between the leader and these lilly-white supporting riders was still only around 90 seconds, then the performance again doesn't seem quite so supernatural. Of course, saying that Contadors time is faster than riders who have subsequently been exposed as dopers points the reader in a direction that's different to that in which he might look if you phrase your question with refrerence to all those demonstrably clean riders that were comparatively close behind him on the day.

I don't have a view on whether Contador did or didn't; I also don't believe it's wrong to question whether he did - it seems to be as valid a line of inquiry as wondering whether rider X would have been faster if he'd used a disc on a hilly time-trial, or whether a devotee of one school of training philosophy (long and slow, say) would have been even more successful had s/he been more willing to do a greater proportion of his training above threshold.

Of course, every forum has rules, and Dan's been pretty clear on where he thinks the boundaries of acceptable discourse lie. There might be some narrow technical sense in which your wording could literally be taken to mean something other than 'Contador doped', but when I read your posts on this string I don't see how you can escape the insinuation that el Pistolero has been shooting more than his finger.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [SuperDave] [ In reply to ]
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Hmmm. I bet Billy Mills 10K in Tokyo doesn't sit well either. Dude goes through the 5K 1 second off his PR, and holds it for another 5K, beating the world champ, winning the gold medal, and PRing by nearly 2 minutes. Sometimes these guys really are this good. Too bad we now never know if they are legit. That's the real damage that dopers do to sport.

can't watch that w/o goose bumps.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7A_QUlMbvY
4:56 in.
Thanks Dave! That was awesome!
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Flanagan] [ In reply to ]
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Hmmm. I bet Billy Mills 10K in Tokyo doesn't sit well either. Dude goes through the 5K 1 second off his PR, and holds it for another 5K, beating the world champ, winning the gold medal, and PRing by nearly 2 minutes. Sometimes these guys really are this good. Too bad we now never know if they are legit. That's the real damage that dopers do to sport.

can't watch that w/o goose bumps.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7A_QUlMbvY
4:56 in.
Thanks Dave! That was awesome!

*off-topic*


...indeed, if you haven't seen the movie about his life and what he overcame to even make it to the Olympics, Running Brave is worth a rent.

Better yet, watch it the night before a race.

-SD

*topic ON*
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [FJB] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Why wouldn't Lance, Alberto, etc do that as well, even for just 6 months? 4 months before the Tour, during the Tour and the following weeks.

That's a very good question and once I would think Lance would be the first to do since he has heard the rumors for years. If it were me, I would insist they test me both in competition and out and I certainly would be as accomodating as I could and without first blaming the French labs, threatening lawsuits, or taking extended showers.

Didn't Lance promise to have his tests posted on the internet or something? What happened with that?


All his test results are posted on his Livestrong website.

===============
Даффи - русский тролль
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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If you are no longer suspicious- when Lance at his best- had riders 2-5 banned for drug usage, and Lance testing positive for EPO when he was weaker (tour 1999)- than- that's your opinion.

Part of my job is working as a medical review officer. This means I am a physician who signs off on drug tests and definitively states whether they are or are not positive for a given substance. I also supervise the staff that does the testing and I have personally observed innumerable drug tests.

People need to stop this nonsense about "Lance tested positive for EPO". This is false on a number of grounds.

1) An independent investigation was commissioned, headed by Vrijman (an attorney and former head of antidoping in the Netherlands). His report can be found on the Internet. Summary: Proper records were not kept by the lab, chain of custody was not maintained, and Armstrong was specifically targeted.

You can have any opinion you like about Lance Armstrong, but an independent investigation disputes your contention. If I signed off on a drug test as "positive" when chain of custody was not maintained, I'd lose my job and would face legal action. In the United States, a lab representing a drug test as positive without proper chain of custody and documentation would be shut down.

2) Read some of the interviews with Dr. Christiane Ayotte, who was director of the WADA-Accredited lab in Montreal at the time all this went down. EPOis not stable in urine, even if stored at -20 degrees. ; The stability of EPO in urine isnt as long as 5 years according to our testing here in Montreal. It is more a matter of months.

If what Dr. Ayotte said was true, we have a major problem on our hands. How do you get a positive test from a sample many times too old to contain what you are testing for?

There is an enormous problem with doping in sport. There are plenty of results out there that may make me suspicious. However, suspicion does not equal guilt, and no matter how many sensationalized media reports people may read, most have no firsthand knowledge of the state of doping, or who is or is not using drugs to enhance performance. The best most of us can do is demand the highest standards from the agencies, laboratories, physicians and scientists involved in policing the sports we enjoy. In the case above, even very basic standards of competence were not met. In fact, the entire affair was a circus and the people and agencies involved should be ashamed of themselves. Cases like the one in question set back the cause of antidoping immeasurably.

By saying things like "Lance Armstrong tested positive," we are implicitly stating that we are okay with the way the testing was conducted and are confident of the results. Given what I have written above, are you confident? I don't mean, "Oh yeah, the guy is probably dirty." I mean would you personally be willing to sign on the dotted line and cause someone to lose their job, reputation, and life's work on the basis of the evidence provided?

Phil
--

Dr. Philip Skiba
PhysFarm Training Systems
Coaching, Consulting and Technology for World Champions, and You.
Dr. Phil's Books available here
Last edited by: Philbert: Jul 24, 09 23:05
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [FJB] [ In reply to ]
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   I think it was Ligget, several stages ago that said Lance had been tested 44 times since he announced his comeback, and even many of the French were getting bothered by the agency testing Lance, sometimes twice a day, at the tour.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Coggan surmised it would be 450 watts- so 450/60= 7.5 W/Kg.
To help keep the comparison apples-to-apples, I assumed that Contador weighs the 69 kg he is listed at in various media reports (e.g., the official Tour website) - so about 450/69 = 6.5 W/kg, not 7.5 W/kg.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Contador races at 62 kgs. At vuelta de espana a little less. out of competition he gains 3 kgs usually. he is very aware of his weight.

In Reply To:
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Coggan surmised it would be 450 watts- so 450/60= 7.5 W/Kg.
To help keep the comparison apples-to-apples, I assumed that Contador weighs the 69 kg he is listed at in various media reports (e.g., the official Tour website) - so about 450/69 = 6.5 W/kg, not 7.5 W/kg.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Coggan surmised it would be 450 watts- so 450/60= 7.5 W/Kg.
To help keep the comparison apples-to-apples, I assumed that Contador weighs the 69 kg he is listed at in various media reports (e.g., the official Tour website) - so about 450/69 = 6.5 W/kg, not 7.5 W/kg.

You mean that you didn't use Wikipedia (60kg)as your main source?!?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Coggan surmised it would be 450 watts- so 450/60= 7.5 W/Kg.
To help keep the comparison apples-to-apples, I assumed that Contador weighs the 69 kg he is listed at in various media reports (e.g., the official Tour website) - so about 450/69 = 6.5 W/kg, not 7.5 W/kg.

Well I guess 6.5 W/Kg is about to 7.5 W/Kg... ;) (roll eyes) that makes ac's climbing a little more impressive, eh?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [CaptainCanada] [ In reply to ]
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I freakin' love all the thinly veiled accusations here on ST...

"I know I can't call someone a doper so I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin."
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Coggan surmised it would be 450 watts- so 450/60= 7.5 W/Kg.
To help keep the comparison apples-to-apples, I assumed that Contador weighs the 69 kg he is listed at in various media reports (e.g., the official Tour website) - so about 450/69 = 6.5 W/kg, not 7.5 W/kg.

Well I guess 6.5 W/Kg is about to 7.5 W/Kg... ;) (roll eyes)

Rolling your eyes at yourself?

In Reply To:
that makes ac's climbing a little more impressive, eh?

Uh, no: his rate of ascent would be related to his power:mass, with a value of 6-6.5 W/kg being a reasonable estimate. What is less certain is what that translates into in terms of an absolute power output...Vayer adjusted things to a reference body mass of 70 kg, so I chose to use Contador's "official" body mass of 69 kg to avoid further confounding the comparison.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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he looks way thinner than 69kgs...
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [CaptainCanada] [ In reply to ]
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All his test results are posted on his Livestrong website.

Does it really prove anything to post your test results?

I could see it meaning something if you posted results of hair/blood/urine tests on a weekly basis to prove nothing has changed but to only post your test results is really meaningless and seems to be little more than a publicity stunt.
Last edited by: FJB: Jul 25, 09 6:25
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [fulla] [ In reply to ]
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he looks way thinner than 69kgs...

<shrug>

It doesn't really matter, since:

1) if you use a lower body mass, you get a lower absolute power (i.e., in W), but the relative power (i.e., in W/kg) remains essentially the same;

2) relative VO2max (i.e., in mL/min/kg) is the issue, and that would be related (obviously) to power in W/kg; and finally

3) as I wrote to Lauro Weislo, there is simply too much "slop" in all such estimates to make it worth trying to pin things down any more exactly that what you can guesstimate in your head.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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he looks way thinner than 69kgs...

<shrug>

It doesn't really matter, since:

1) if you use a lower body mass, you get a lower absolute power (i.e., in W), but the relative power (i.e., in W/kg) remains essentially the same;

2) relative VO2max (i.e., in mL/min/kg) is the issue, and that would be related (obviously) to power in W/kg; and finally

3) as I wrote to Lauro Weislo, there is simply too much "slop" in all such estimates to make it worth trying to pin things down any more exactly that what you can guesstimate in your head.
sadly, again...I have to agree...

I did a very quick hand-wave at the climb, using Sorensen's file as a reality check, and assuming Contador @ 62kg I came up with the same numbers, both wattage and vo2.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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I don't suppose you've cross referenced numbers against his TT the next day: Is the wattage required to climb like he did sufficient to TT like he did?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [roady] [ In reply to ]
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I have a question that I don't remember being brought up here, or I just missed it. When you are climbing a mountain like this, and people often site Lemonds performance in the past, doesn't the diffenrence in bike weights from then to now make some difference. What is a 2 kilo diffenrence in the bike going to do to the formula?? I do not know, but is seems like a couple kilos in body weight make a difference, so why not the bike too? Seems to me it would be the same as body weight, even more since a lot of the reduced weight from then is in the wheels and spinning weight. Plus the bikes are more aero too, so another advantage from Lemond's days.

Maybe one of the math formula geeks can do a quick calc using 3 or 4 pounds, and a little reduced Cda, and then see what the power required is from then to now...
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [gord] [ In reply to ]
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Maybe there's a difference between 'insinuate' and 'imply', but - to me - it reads as though you ARE insinuating that AC is doping. If you weren't saying that, you wouldn't say it is 'troubling that Contador is so much faster than folks who did';
Since VAM is not an absolute metric, I said I found it troubling. As others have pointed out, when you distill it w/kg, it becomes much more reasonable. If they'd posted it in w/kg, and he'd posted something like 9 w/kg, then you bet your ass I would have done more than imply or insinuate. But, there was enough doubt within Ross Tucker's own article that I really meant it as "this seems bad, someone please tell me it's not as bad as it seems." And, thankfully, loads of people did. So, yes, I had issues. But I certainly wasn't going to say someone was (or was not) doping based off the information in the article I had. Based on what others have posted here, it seems that there is nothing extraordinary in what happened in Verbier, beyond the fact that these guys are very good bike riders. Of course, given cycling's history, I am gunshy. But I don't assume they are all guilty until proven innocent. Just probably a little more reticent when something, apparently, seems "superhuman," (at least based off one metric). Fortunately, there were other numbers which seem to put things right from an analytical perspective. I'm truly sorry if I came off as implying anything. I am sure I did, but really I was just looking for insight. Any tone is simply the flaw of being biased, subconsciously, after seeing many riders get busted. I hope that is understandable and acceptable.


"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | Facebook - Rappstar Racing | @rappstar | I work @ Zwift

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [FJB] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Why must someone who has never done anything wrong prove he is innocent simply because of his profession?

What do you do for a living? Would you be ok with this standard being used for you?


If people made accusations against me and I knew I was innocent, I certainly would volunteer to be tested.
And then what would you do when people refuse to believe the test results and still say you are guilty?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jackmott] [ In reply to ]
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They don't have to. None of them do, they get paid and have fun and we still watch and all is well.

So because they choose this profession they should be considered unethical cheaters until they can do the impossible, prove their innocent? Come on, that is asinine at best and nobody in a regular profession would stand for it.


As a software developer I would be ok with any rational assumptions being made about my peer group.

I do in fact, drink a lot of caffeine...

Sorry but claiming someone is guilty until they prove something that many will not believe is not rational.

In Reply To:

Why must someone who has never done anything wrong prove he is innocent simply because of his profession?

What do you do for a living? Would you be ok with this standard being used for you?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [TriUno83] [ In reply to ]
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They deserve the right to have to be proven guilty before they go to jail or lose their job.

They do not deserve the right for the public to think they are clean, before proven guilty.

That is a right they must EARN

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1) What is the percentage of positive results to cyclists?

2) Even if the rate is not the same does that mean that one group (pro athletes) do not deserve the opportunity to have to be proven guilty?
Why must someone who has never done anything wrong prove he is innocent simply because of his profession?

What do you do for a living? Would you be ok with this standard being used for you?

I think jack put it best in another thread, as for the concept of 'Innocent until proven guilty':

This is a concept which americans and others decided to apply as a legal standard.

Not something to regulate opinions.

Would you let an accused, but not yet convicted, child molestor babysit your kids?
Would you be ok with someone saying your babysitter is a child molester because your kids think he/she is a great babysitter? That is a much more apt analogy.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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I don't suppose you've cross referenced numbers against his TT the next day:

No, and I haven't even been tempted to try.

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Is the wattage required to climb like he did sufficient to TT like he did?

That depends on (among other things) his power:CdA in comparison to his power:mass, now doesn't it?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:
In Reply To:
In Reply To:
They deserve the right to have to be proven guilty before they go to jail or lose their job.

They do not deserve the right for the public to think they are clean, before proven guilty.

That is a right they must EARN

In Reply To:
1) What is the percentage of positive results to cyclists?

2) Even if the rate is not the same does that mean that one group (pro athletes) do not deserve the opportunity to have to be proven guilty?
Why must someone who has never done anything wrong prove he is innocent simply because of his profession?

What do you do for a living? Would you be ok with this standard being used for you?

I think jack put it best in another thread, as for the concept of 'Innocent until proven guilty':

This is a concept which americans and others decided to apply as a legal standard.

Not something to regulate opinions.

Would you let an accused, but not yet convicted, child molestor babysit your kids?
Would you be ok with someone saying your babysitter is a child molester because your kids think he/she is a great babysitter? That is a much more apt analogy.
Actually, wouldn't it be even more appropriate to ask "Would you be ok with someone saying your babysitter is a child molester because your kids think he/she is a great babysitter, given that, historically, a large percentage of babysitters whom children think are great have turned out to be child molesters, either by their own admission or by being definitively caught by law enforcement as such."


"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | Facebook - Rappstar Racing | @rappstar | I work @ Zwift

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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more than that

given that the babysitter union has been caught numerous times not just endorsing child molestation but requiring it in order to be accepted into the union!

and that the leaders of many babysitter rings are admitted molestors.

shit this really drives the point home don't it?

;)



Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Is the wattage required to climb like he did sufficient to TT like he did?

That depends on (among other things) his power:CdA in comparison to his power:mass, now doesn't it?

Presumably you've already got his weight and power to do the calcs you did? (Or at least that's how I assume the equation goes?) I was just wondering if there was an estimate of his CdA already out there that could be used.

If not, then knowing weight, power & course profile, it should be possible to calculate an estimate of CdA I assume which in turn will give an idea of how realistic his performance was.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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He's on roids, did you see all that roid rage, back handing all the fans around him.



















Just kidding, but he should gain a little more respect for the fans even though they do some times get a little close. I know someone will bring up LA and the Live Clean Devil at ToC, but that guy deserved it.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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Is the wattage required to climb like he did sufficient to TT like he did?

That depends on (among other things) his power:CdA in comparison to his power:mass, now doesn't it?

Presumably you've already got his weight and power to do the calcs you did? (Or at least that's how I assume the equation goes?) I was just wondering if there was an estimate of his CdA already out there that could be used.

If not, then knowing weight, power & course profile, it should be possible to calculate an estimate of CdA I assume which in turn will give an idea of how realistic his performance was.

W/kg estimates from VAM are not a good marker for "suspicious" performance (given the range in power estimates due to various assumptions required, e.g. gradient, speed, wind, pacing etc - on a climb these matter a lot for estimating power/interpreting VAM). Nevertheless, as far as I can tell, the range of W/kg I calculated includes a sizeable chunk well within the category of performances plausible for a clean world class pro cyclist.

W/CdA estimates from TTs would be even less reliable as far as assessing "clean performance plausibility" given the greater number of variables that can affect TT speed. e.g. he might be exceptionally slippery through the air, the air density might be very low, wind conditions favourable, extra (and extra close) motorbike pacing him etc - none of which require doping.

Let's say he does 400W. To be world class TT rider we are talking >= 2000 W/m^2. At 400W that's a CdA <= 0.20m^2. I coach an amateur athlete of similar size to Contador, and with only the equipment he owned or borrowed and no wind tunnel testing, we got him to a CdA of ~0.185m^2 (on a track bike so add a bit for dereilleur, brakes etc). Let's not forget the Tour's final ITT had a Cat 3 climb as well. So on that basis I'd say his performance is entirely plausible for a clean world classs pro cyclist.

None of this proves anything about a rider's doping status, either way.

Any estimation of physiological output for a world class athlete from VAM or TT speed, by definition, will produce a range of possible outcomes (W/kg or W/CdA or watts or VO2 or whatever) that spans the entirely plausible to implausible, simply because of:
(i) the imprecision in the assumptions used to estimate such output (i.e. we simply don't/can't know all the variables) and
(ii) the fact that they are world class, i.e. they are already close to the "edge of implausibility" (whether clean or doped).

Edited for a typo.

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Last edited by: Alex Simmons: Jul 27, 09 3:28
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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Or you could just look at the average speed (50.1km/h) which is fast, but not unheard of.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Alex Simmons] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks for the summary Alex.

I think that the most likely thing for me to believe that he is clean is signing with Garmin though.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Alex Simmons] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:
If not, then knowing weight, power & course profile, it should be possible to calculate an estimate of CdA I assume which in turn will give an idea of how realistic his performance was.

W/CdA estimates from TTs would be even less reliable as far as assessing "clean performance plausibility" given the greater number of variables that can affect TT speed. e.g. he might be exceptionally slippery through the air, the air density might be very low, wind conditions favourable, extra (and extra close) motorbike pacing him etc - none of which require doping.

Right. Contador's first few split times only seemed remarkable because it wasn't clear that the wind had changed. Here's the overall split by the southbound (outbound) leg vs. the northbound (inbound) leg (top decile individually labeled):



However, the effect of the wind on those splits becomes clearer if you plot the ratio of outbound/inbound speeds against the start order (same top decile labeled):



Even holding their overall total time constant, the last 10 or 15 riders obviously experienced a stronger tailwind on the outbound leg (headwind on the inbound leg) than earlier riders. Taking the wind into consideration, Contador's TT doesn't seem quite so superhuman as the early time checks seemed to imply. As an aside, Armstrong had the largest deviation in average speed between the outbound and inbound legs of any rider.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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Here's some corroborating evidence for a substantial wind shift around 3pm local time (weather station around 10km from the start/finish line and at the same elevation):

http://www.wunderground.com/...day=23&year=2009
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [rmur] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Here's some corroborating evidence for a substantial wind shift around 3pm local time (weather station around 10km from the start/finish line and at the same elevation):

http://www.wunderground.com/...day=23&year=2009

Whoa. Very cool.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:
Here's some corroborating evidence for a substantial wind shift around 3pm local time (weather station around 10km from the start/finish line and at the same elevation):

http://www.wunderground.com/...day=23&year=2009

Whoa. Very cool.

Gotta love weatherunderground.com :-)



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Weather Underground is notorious for being wrong.

Rap- That might be a better analogy but it still doesn't change the fact that it is pathetic assuming someone is guilty for being good at their job. I also find it shocking that you, a pro triathlete if I am not mistaken, is ok with the "guilty and never being innocent no matter what" attitude.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Weather Underground is notorious for being wrong.



I take the "personal weather station" data with a fairly hefty dose of salt...but that weather data linked above is from an official weather station at an airport.



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Weather Underground is notorious for being wrong.

Perhaps, but I had done the outbound/inbound comparison way before I'd ever seen the weather underground report, so it's only confirming something that was already clear from an independent analysis.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
From Science of Sport's analysis of Contador's climb: http://www.sportsscientists.com/...-contador-climb.html

He has the highest VAM ever recorded in the Tour. What is disturbing to me is the last time this happened - last year - it was Ricardo Ricco, who then immediately got popped for CERA. 2nd on the list below Contador is Riis, who admitted to taking EPO in the 96 TdF. Below him are several performances from Pantani, who had a less than stellar track record regarding drugs, both PED and otherwise.

Does anyone else find this really, really disturbing? I actually find this surprisingly supportive of the "Lance is clean" argument, since his best performance - which was in the 2004 Alpe d'Huez TIME TRIAL, when they ONLY did the Alpe climb, nothing else, no hard lead in, etc. - is 8th on the list. EIGHTH! For a sub-1hr time trial effort.

I'm a Contador fan, in that I just like to see someone who is clearly at the top of their game. But this just doesn't sit well with me.


In light of the "tainted meat from Spain", what do we now think about this thread?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I have moved on.... The guy is a cheating bastard...
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In light of the "tainted meat from Spain", what do we now think about this thread?
I'm pretty happy with the "wind shifted during the TT" analysis.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Pedalsaurus-Tex] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
I have moved on.... The guy is a cheating bastard...

That's what I said about Lance in 2004.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [FastandFun] [ In reply to ]
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Basically can be said for any top GC rider.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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I'm with Rappstar on this.. apply Occam's Razor to this one.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [OptimusPrime] [ In reply to ]
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I think looking back through the entire thread provides an entertaining read given the current knowledge of the "tainted meat" scandal (preceded a few years back by Operation Puerto)
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mcycle] [ In reply to ]
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mcycle wrote:
GL: What wattage was he doing? I would look more at wattage because the rate of vertical ascent could vary so much depending on the pavement. Wattage is the ultimate truth. You know I'm very controversial because I think that you have to look at numbers.
My wattage, relative to VO2 Max...a VO2 Max of 92 or 93 in a fully recovered way...I think I was capable of producing 450 to 460 watts. The truth is, even at the Tour de France, my Tour de France climb times up l'Alpe d'Huez yielded a wattage of around 380 and 390. That was the historic norm for Hinault and myself. You've got times going back many, many years. But what was learned recently, in the last 5 years, was that when you start the Tour de France, you start with a normal hematocrit of, say, 45 percent. By the time you finish, it's probably down 10 or 15 percent. Which means my VO2 Max dropped 10 or 15 percent. So that's why I was never producing the same wattage. And then there a lot of other factors that help performance if you've recovered. My last time trial in '89, I averaged about 420, 430 watts, which would match or be slightly down from what my real VO2 Max was.
Of course, in the '90s drugs came on the scene, so the wattages have gone out..

Blast from the past thread I am just reading. I love this quote... Greg Lemond is saying that drugs only came on the scene in the 90s. How droll.

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [BLeP] [ In reply to ]
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Sinces Rapps original post(2010? or 2009?) Wasnt Contedor done for doping, clenbuterol to be specific?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Cake] [ In reply to ]
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Cake wrote:
Sinces Rapps original post(2010? or 2009?) Wasnt Contedor done for doping, clenbuterol to be specific?

Yes. popper for Clen, though likely it wasn't the doping material but rather part of what he was doing to mask doping. Though it is hypothetical he was just on clean for weight reduction, there were rumors he came into TdF that year a bit heavier than normal.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [BLeP] [ In reply to ]
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BLeP wrote:
mcycle wrote:

GL: What wattage was he doing? I would look more at wattage because the rate of vertical ascent could vary so much depending on the pavement. Wattage is the ultimate truth. You know I'm very controversial because I think that you have to look at numbers.
My wattage, relative to VO2 Max...a VO2 Max of 92 or 93 in a fully recovered way...I think I was capable of producing 450 to 460 watts. The truth is, even at the Tour de France, my Tour de France climb times up l'Alpe d'Huez yielded a wattage of around 380 and 390. That was the historic norm for Hinault and myself. You've got times going back many, many years. But what was learned recently, in the last 5 years, was that when you start the Tour de France, you start with a normal hematocrit of, say, 45 percent. By the time you finish, it's probably down 10 or 15 percent. Which means my VO2 Max dropped 10 or 15 percent. So that's why I was never producing the same wattage. And then there a lot of other factors that help performance if you've recovered. My last time trial in '89, I averaged about 420, 430 watts, which would match or be slightly down from what my real VO2 Max was.
Of course, in the '90s drugs came on the scene, so the wattages have gone out..


Blast from the past thread I am just reading. I love this quote... Greg Lemond is saying that drugs only came on the scene in the 90s. How droll.

I'm pretty sure he's referring to oxygen vector drugs, in which case he's correct.



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [pick6] [ In reply to ]
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pick6 wrote:
Cake wrote:
Sinces Rapps original post(2010? or 2009?) Wasnt Contedor done for doping, clenbuterol to be specific?


Yes. popper for Clen, though likely it wasn't the doping material but rather part of what he was doing to mask doping. Though it is hypothetical he was just on clean for weight reduction, there were rumors he came into TdF that year a bit heavier than normal.

His super human performances at times suggested he was doping.

Listened to a Tyler Hamilton interview(interview was from during the summer) yesterday and he was asked did he still think there was still a massive doping problem in cycling. He referenced some stage that had just happened the day before with a big climb and said that the climber who got to the top first/won, the time would have only gotten the rider into 45th position during his and lances time racing that same climb. So maybe its a little cleaner.

So despite the UCI being a disgrace, cycling might now be a little cleaner. Though it still made me feel horrible, watching people fawning and commentators glossing over Contador's return the the Veulta this year.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [pick6] [ In reply to ]
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pick6 wrote:
Cake wrote:
Sinces Rapps original post(2010? or 2009?) Wasnt Contedor done for doping, clenbuterol to be specific?

Yes. popper for Clen, though likely it wasn't the doping material but rather part of what he was doing to mask doping. Though it is hypothetical he was just on clean for weight reduction, there were rumors he came into TdF that year a bit heavier than normal.

What's wrong with you people? Alberto didn't dope he ate tainted beef man!

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Tom A. wrote:
BLeP wrote:
mcycle wrote:

GL: What wattage was he doing? I would look more at wattage because the rate of vertical ascent could vary so much depending on the pavement. Wattage is the ultimate truth. You know I'm very controversial because I think that you have to look at numbers.
My wattage, relative to VO2 Max...a VO2 Max of 92 or 93 in a fully recovered way...I think I was capable of producing 450 to 460 watts. The truth is, even at the Tour de France, my Tour de France climb times up l'Alpe d'Huez yielded a wattage of around 380 and 390. That was the historic norm for Hinault and myself. You've got times going back many, many years. But what was learned recently, in the last 5 years, was that when you start the Tour de France, you start with a normal hematocrit of, say, 45 percent. By the time you finish, it's probably down 10 or 15 percent. Which means my VO2 Max dropped 10 or 15 percent. So that's why I was never producing the same wattage. And then there a lot of other factors that help performance if you've recovered. My last time trial in '89, I averaged about 420, 430 watts, which would match or be slightly down from what my real VO2 Max was.
Of course, in the '90s drugs came on the scene, so the wattages have gone out..


Blast from the past thread I am just reading. I love this quote... Greg Lemond is saying that drugs only came on the scene in the 90s. How droll.


I'm pretty sure he's referring to oxygen vector drugs, in which case he's correct.

Lemond is definitely referring to O2 vector drugs and has clarified this in other interviews. He wasn't implying there were not drugs in the sport, but the readily available drugs were not making donkeys into thoroughbreds. Hence, a thoroughbred (in the late 80s) could beat a doped up donkey.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Maybe this is too simplistic of a view, but if all the dopers are allegedly gone, shouldn't we be seeing a fairly drastic decline in times? If so, then yes, this chart is disturbing.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jamlo] [ In reply to ]
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jamlo wrote:
Maybe this is too simplistic of a view, but if all the dopers are allegedly gone, shouldn't we be seeing a fairly drastic decline in times? If so, then yes, this chart is disturbing.

This might help put some context to that question.

http://www.sportsscientists.com/...let-6wkg-anyone.html
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jamlo] [ In reply to ]
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jamlo wrote:
Maybe this is too simplistic of a view, but if all the dopers are allegedly gone, shouldn't we be seeing a fairly drastic decline in times? If so, then yes, this chart is disturbing.

Generally, yes, the times are drastically slower than the late 90's and early 2000's. The Tourmalet link is a good one, but there's a better chart out there - can't find it right now - that compares the best climbing performances for recent years with the times for the same climbs ~10 years ago and prior.

But, yes, the generally trend in the data is that the sport - as a whole - is getting cleaner. And of those riders that continue to outperform - like Contador and Frank (but not Andy) Schleck - a doping positive seems just around the corner.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Rappstar wrote:
But, yes, the generally trend in the data is that the sport - as a whole - is getting cleaner. And of those riders that continue to outperform - like Contador and Frank (but not Andy) Schleck - a doping positive seems just around the corner.

What would be the thinking to select Frank but not Andy?

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [miwoodar] [ In reply to ]
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Interesting Article. The other chart in this article shows that the average power outputs on mountain stages were superior in the mid '90s AKA the Festina Era, than they were in the 1999-2005 era AKA the Armstrong era.



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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Gandalf] [ In reply to ]
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Frank got popped this year.

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Gandalf] [ In reply to ]
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Gandalf wrote:
Rappstar wrote:

But, yes, the generally trend in the data is that the sport - as a whole - is getting cleaner. And of those riders that continue to outperform - like Contador and Frank (but not Andy) Schleck - a doping positive seems just around the corner.


What would be the thinking to select Frank but not Andy?

Andy is an interesting case. While his brother has been linked to doping doctors and now popped positive, Andy never has directly, and frankly (an unintentional pun), a lack of doping could well explain his inability to hang with Contador in some climbs, even though andy is usually a leaner specimen. I havent seen andy's w/kg in a while to help clarify that. There's still the concern though because of how close the brothers are.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [BLeP] [ In reply to ]
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yes, but Frank says he was poisoned. Some theory about Bruyneel lacing his coffee with a diuretic.


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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [JChapATX] [ In reply to ]
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JChapATX wrote:
yes, but Frank says he was poisoned. Some theory about Bruyneel lacing his coffee with a diuretic.

Uh huh... and Tyler Hamilton had blood in his system from an unborn twin.

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [BLeP] [ In reply to ]
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Anyone see the ESPN 30 for 30 on Ben Johnson of 100m fame titled 9.79? There is some evidence that he may have been "poisoned" or slipped steroids without him knowing it. It is a good watch. Carl Lewis is still in denial while others have come clean. Ben seems to think should have been clean at the games but admits he was NOT clean in training aka out of competition. One of Ben's team mates thought getting popped at the olympics was rediculous as you they were long off the PEDs by then.

JW (on the comback trail)
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [NYCTri] [ In reply to ]
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I watched it today. CL is sad.

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [pick6] [ In reply to ]
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pick6 wrote:
Gandalf wrote:
Rappstar wrote:

But, yes, the generally trend in the data is that the sport - as a whole - is getting cleaner. And of those riders that continue to outperform - like Contador and Frank (but not Andy) Schleck - a doping positive seems just around the corner.


What would be the thinking to select Frank but not Andy?


Andy is an interesting case. While his brother has been linked to doping doctors and now popped positive, Andy never has directly, and frankly (an unintentional pun), a lack of doping could well explain his inability to hang with Contador in some climbs, even though andy is usually a leaner specimen. I havent seen andy's w/kg in a while to help clarify that. There's still the concern though because of how close the brothers are.

I the last few years, Andy has generally been thought to be a better climber than Contador, and widely criticized for not attacking him earlier in the climbs. Condator has beaten AS on the time trials not the hills.

The brothers are obviously very close. Whilst guilt by association shouldn't be a key argument, it often is (in cycling) and it would be strange to find that one of the brothers was doping and the other wasn't. Particularly when it was the weaker of the two that would be suspected. Hence my question to Rappstar. Andy has hung with the best climbers (thus outperorming) yet no suspicion on him. If Jordan is going from the data, AS would me a more likely candidate than FS.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [BLeP] [ In reply to ]
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BLeP wrote:
Frank got popped this year.

I know, but Jordan was surmising the potential candidates for future positives based on the performances rather than the previous test results.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Gandalf] [ In reply to ]
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Gandalf wrote:
pick6 wrote:
Gandalf wrote:
Rappstar wrote:

But, yes, the generally trend in the data is that the sport - as a whole - is getting cleaner. And of those riders that continue to outperform - like Contador and Frank (but not Andy) Schleck - a doping positive seems just around the corner.


What would be the thinking to select Frank but not Andy?


Andy is an interesting case. While his brother has been linked to doping doctors and now popped positive, Andy never has directly, and frankly (an unintentional pun), a lack of doping could well explain his inability to hang with Contador in some climbs, even though andy is usually a leaner specimen. I havent seen andy's w/kg in a while to help clarify that. There's still the concern though because of how close the brothers are.


I the last few years, Andy has generally been thought to be a better climber than Contador, and widely criticized for not attacking him earlier in the climbs. Condator has beaten AS on the time trials not the hills.

The brothers are obviously very close. Whilst guilt by association shouldn't be a key argument, it often is (in cycling) and it would be strange to find that one of the brothers was doping and the other wasn't. Particularly when it was the weaker of the two that would be suspected. Hence my question to Rappstar. Andy has hung with the best climbers (thus outperorming) yet no suspicion on him. If Jordan is going from the data, AS would me a more likely candidate than FS.

Andy was criticized for it, but I've watched, and i honestly think he couldnt have dropped AC, or at least not dropped him and let AC get back on. AC is so strong in the steepest sections, Andy gets through them but not like AC does.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [pick6] [ In reply to ]
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Yes PEDs make AC very strong.

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [BLeP] [ In reply to ]
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As someone I know (that knows AC) once said, "He's so doped he doesn't even know he has legs anymore..."
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [fasterisbetter] [ In reply to ]
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Well, at least it is proven that he does not know anything about the meat he eats. Man, those cows that use plasticizers (sp?) are a new breed of cow!!!
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jamlo] [ In reply to ]
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jamlo wrote:
Maybe this is too simplistic of a view, but if all the dopers are allegedly gone, shouldn't we be seeing a fairly drastic decline in times? If so, then yes, this chart is disturbing.

Going to have to check KOM dates on Strava now!

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