I did it last year (2014). There is one decent hill, I think it is 2.5 miles at 6% or so. Then a lot of rollers, some of the rollers are long enough that they feel more like a hill. But it is going to be very hard to try to determine a bike split ahead of time, mostly due to weather. June in CDA is unpredictable. Last year the wind was absolutely howling in your face for 25 miles of each loop. Going out was painful at 12-14mph, as soon as you turned around 25mph was easy to hold. Bike splits were off 45 minutes overall from the year before. Swim times were way off too due to whitecaps on the lake.

Based on your IM Melb time, you should expect around a 5:05-5:10. Based on your FTP, you should be sub 5. What was your FTP for IM Melb? You should have ridden a flat and fast course WAY faster than 5hrs with a 340 FTP!

Done both.....5:05 at Melb, 5:45 at CdA.

But I'm weak and slow

I have raced CDA in 2014 and will in 2015. Your 5hrs for a flat course does not match nowhere near 340W. My guess flat to CDA delta is about 30min.

I didn't have PM for that IM season so not sure... my guess is about 300?

Do you remember power for both by chance

i don't race with a power meter.....but try to hold a 165-170 bpm (hummingbird heart) heart rate. My setup is about 2100 grams of drag and I'm about 143-145lb.

I don't try push the bike too hard, the run is where I try to throttle it.

I have done CdA (2013) and Western Oz (08) which is flat and fast like Melb.

At WestOz I went 4:53 on about 215 watts and at CdA I went 5 hours or so on 205 watts.

I am 64kg and 74cm in height, raced both on a P3 with a HED disk and Tri spoke.

Jack

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
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I've done it 3x. Only had the time of day (computer functions all stopped)...had to race from the heart only. The other times...can't quite recall what I used (PM or not)...I always race from the heart & seemed to work out fine. KNOW THYSELF.

I did 5:15 on about 220w NP, 209 AP @ 75kg. My FTP was about 315 at the time

here is my race report from 2012 - there are links to my actual race files at the end if you want more detail

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I am also doing CdA. I just came off the back of Melbourne IM - so first time I am backing up in the same year. I am a race fatty (91kg at weigh in for Melbourne) so reckon the hills might hurt... Should be fun. Feel free to guess my time based on Melbourne. FTP leading up to it was 4.4w/kg and average watts was 276w for Melbourne (4:27 ride time). I was planning on riding around 5 hours for CdA - am I dreaming?

just put your data into bestbikesplit.com if you want to predict it

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I've posted links to power files from both of my rides at IMCDA here on the forum previously.

With an FTP of 340 - I would expect a time well under 5 hours.