Maybe if it was held in October when the race turns easy.....

Really depends on the day and how hot and humid it is on run. Your sheer volume might be your biggest asset, your height and weight given the conditions is going to be your biggest challenge if it gets toasty out there. I would say possible but you are going to have to execute to a T.

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No one can answer that question but you. But here's some motivation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Wo1yamVOj4

Louisville has a deceptively tough bike course, and the swim was my slowest IM swim to date at 1:07. It's hard to find feet to draft off due to the time trial start plus you'll be dodging people backstroking and breaststroking the first few 1,000 yards. For reference, I rode 5:10 there (216 NP @ 140lbs) which was good enough for 30th overall (4th in age group) off the bike. I broke down at mile 18 walked/jogged/puked (having run my way into 2nd M35-39) to a miserable 3:54 run. Completely my fault for being overconfident and going way too fast in the opening 10K. I thought I would easily break 10 that day, but it turned out to be a good lesson in pacing. Good luck.

Yes, if you don't walk during the marathon.

Is that CTL for bike/run only? Bike only? If all 3, that's pretty low for a peak of 22 hours. Not a real deep fitness base.

That'a very solid run time for a "big guy". Hell around here, over 170 lbs is practically the heavy weight class.

I'd say you have a very good shot. Your peak week looks pretty good.

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Pls reply to OP, and not bottom poster. Tks. It makes "threaded forums" work as intended.

This is just for bike/run for the CTL.

Depends on a lot of things. You have an excellent open Mary time and excellent volume. However, (why is there always a however), your swim is not an asset and your W/kg is 3.6. From my understanding the bike course at Louisville has more climbing then people give it credit, so your power/ weight numbers are somewhat low for sub 10, but ironman is a strange animal and some people cope with the day better than others so you might be good for sub 10. My honest guess is no, but I'm relatively pessimistic with predictions

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