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Slowtwitch Forums: Triathlon Forum:
The future of tri bikes

neil_laing

Oct 7, 08 2:11

Post #1 of 8 (857 views)

The future of tri bikes	Can't Post

Now that the dust has settled and Vegas has been done, what can we learn from this year's show season about the direction of tri bikes for 2010 and beyond?

Integrate or Die.
It's not new, as Hed, for example, integrated brake levers into it's first TT bar. Jamis and THM have done integrated front brakes into the forks, and Fuji and Cervelo have done integrated rear brakes. Some designs are better than others. Another thread shows a photoshopped Cervelo/Jamis/Giant bike as illustration of this trend.

Dimples Everywhere.
I use the word dimples to cover all the technology used to manipulate the air moving round the bike. Roughened edges as seen on the Ridley Dean, Biplane designs like Oval Jetstream, and of course the Zipp dimples are just some examples. Some companies will continue to dimple for the sake of dimples, while others, we hope, will have data to back up why they did it.

The end of the Hed Trispoke.
As more bike companies spec their top of the range bikes with 808s and similar, I can see composite spoked wheels becoming a less likely purchase for the consumer. As more ironmans, both pro and AG, or grand tour TTs are won on the deep section and disc combo, so consumer consciousness will consider these of greater potential benefit than a Hed trispoke, Xentis, or whatever.

What this means -
It will soon be impossible to buy a Tri frame without having to purchase the proprietary brake set, water bottle, or whatnot needed to make the thing legal, aerodynamically complete, or whatever.
As more bikes are tunnel tested with specific wheelsets, bars etc, and are optimised to work with these, and then specced accordingly, the opportunity to use a favored part will be diminished. We have already seen this with the P4 probably being limited to flat sided discs.
Hopefully speccing of deep section wheels will be due to the aforementioned parts integration as a result of tunnel testing, and not as a result of pressure by Sram. E.g. If you want to sell a Sram red tri bike, it must come with Sram, Flashpoint, or Zipp wheels.

Prices for top end rigs will go through the roof as they become more dependent on tunnel time to maximise the marginal gains as we near the limits of conventional, uci rule constrained, race bikes. Bit like Formula One really. Trickle down technology will not appear for a while, at least until Cervelo get round to creating a P2i with integrated rear brake :-)
Copycat, not tunnel tested, designs will continue of course, and I see these becoming more common under riders who cannot afford the latest superbike but still want a new toy, or those that don't want to follow the herd onto the P5. Especially if the P5 turns out to be as pig ugly as current F1 cars.

Edinburgh RC

"The cost of the bike is irrelevant. What matters is getting it to fit you so you are both comfortable and aerodynamic." - Me

Scott Herrick

Oct 7, 08 3:17

Post #2 of 8 (828 views)

Re: The future of tri bikes [neil_laing] [In reply to]	Can't Post

I hope the trend of hideous oversized brand labeling on top of beautiful frame designs stops. Bugatti did not spray paint their name down the side of the Veyron--a discrete logo or name with a simple carbon weave is plenty enough. If your bike is good, we'll all know which one it is.

neil_laing

Oct 7, 08 4:04

Post #3 of 8 (771 views)

Re: The future of tri bikes [Scott Herrick] [In reply to]	Can't Post

Ah but that plays into my F1 analogy. They're got sponsors logos everywhere, as do most pro tour bikes. The bike manufacturer is a sponsor, not a supplier, so maximising billboard space on the frame is what they need to do.

I wonder if we'll see more custom paint schemes appearing, as people struggle to find bikes in transition. In a sea of black P4s, it's going to be easy to find the lime green one.

Edinburgh RC

"The cost of the bike is irrelevant. What matters is getting it to fit you so you are both comfortable and aerodynamic." - Me

slowhokie

Oct 7, 08 5:02

Post #4 of 8 (700 views)

Re: The future of tri bikes [neil_laing] [In reply to]	Can't Post

Do people seriously worry about not being able to pick out their Cervelo in transition? Or is that an analogy for not wanting the same bike as everyone else? That seems like one of the most trivial aspects of a bike selection, even less so than the color.

GregX

Oct 7, 08 5:06

Post #5 of 8 (691 views)

Re: The future of tri bikes [neil_laing] [In reply to]	Can't Post

while i see some of its aero benefits (although not one bike at interbike except the p4 did the brake integration correctly), i don't really like the 'integrate or die' trend.

because, keep a frame for 10 years and good luck trying to get any replacement parts (like springs, arms, bushings, bolts, etc.) for a proprietary brake or other component.

i think it would be better called "planned obsolescence or die" ...

"Half of what we taught you is wrong. Unfortunately, we do not know which half."
-- Dean and cardiologist C. S. Burwell to a Harvard Med School graduating class.
Where would you want to swim ?

psycholist

Oct 7, 08 7:31

Post #6 of 8 (497 views)

Re: The future of tri bikes [neil_laing] [In reply to]	Can't Post

I wonder what's more important, aerodynamically speaking? A disc with a toroidal bulge or an aerodynamically optimal frameset? The reason I ask is that, if it's the former, and people start making frameset choices based on their ability to accept the wheelset they want to run, then the manufacturers will need to do a better job of allowing for them in their designs.

kristiancyclist

Oct 7, 08 8:23

Post #7 of 8 (411 views)

Re: The future of tri bikes [neil_laing] [In reply to]	Can't Post

HED3 wheels will never die. They'll just get cheaper, especially in the used marketplace. Lance won too many time trials with them.

-- Boris

neil_laing

Oct 7, 08 8:55

Post #8 of 8 (351 views)

Re: The future of tri bikes [psycholist] [In reply to]	Can't Post

In Reply To

Where's Gerard or Josh when you did them? :-)

Personally, I think that wheels will be of more benefit than an optimised frame.
However, having seen and read snipits about how Cervelo design their bikes, I'd like to think they tested more than one rear wheel when designing the P4, and came up with the flat disc and chainstay shape they have as the fastest overall combination.

I doubt that any one company would ever design a "total bike package" that's aerodynamically optimised for maximum performance. The British Cycling Olympic track bikes are probably the best example of such a cohesive approach, but aren't commercially available.

Let me ask you this:
you have a bulged disc and deep front on a P3, and were looking for a new frame, what would you do if you knew that the total drag reduction available from frame X with your current wheels was 2% over your current ride, yet the drag reduction from Frame Y with a flat disc you had to use was 5%, which would you get?

Edinburgh RC

"The cost of the bike is irrelevant. What matters is getting it to fit you so you are both comfortable and aerodynamic." - Me