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Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2
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rodio
Mar 14, 08 10:01
Post #51 of 106 (665 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [Jeremy K]
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The BSC fall made me a good amount of profit in both the game and personally. I had bought put options two days ago after the big bounce on Tuesday. Didn't see this coming, but I didn't think they could sustain their levels the other day.
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Existence precedes Essence.
Jeremy K
Mar 14, 08 10:18
Post #52 of 106 (664 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [rodio]
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I cannot imagine how much money was made on front month puts with like a 40 or 45 strike. Good for you. Make sure you take some profits.
Jeremy K
Mar 14, 08 11:47
Post #53 of 106 (659 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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If we see GM gets to 18 I will probably move 50% of my 401K into it. May move some in earlier. I have done this before with success.
I am sure you saw...but it hit a 52w low of 19.00 today.
kdw
Mar 14, 08 15:27
Post #54 of 106 (652 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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Are you certain you want 50% of your 401K in any one stock never mind a US auto maker?
DavHamm
Mar 14, 08 17:40
Post #55 of 106 (645 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [kdw]
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Are you certain you want 50% of your 401K in any one stock never mind a US auto maker?
No I am never certain of anything. But I am fairly sure this is a good bet. Their really are only 2 issues for me 1) when is the time to buy and 2) how long until I can sell.
Lots of folks are looking at GM as a good buy right now. Yes others don't agree but when the Oil bubble bursts it will rebound. The levels its at are ridiculously low. The last time it was down here everyone was talking about the company folding and they are in much better shape now then then. Oh I might a nice bit of money on it that time also.
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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Zinc
Mar 15, 08 5:57
Post #56 of 106 (640 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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There is a material chance that one major US automaker will fail, Ford and GM are both in pretty terrible shape.
There are some real bargains
DavHamm
Mar 15, 08 6:53
Post #57 of 106 (633 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [Zinc]
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There is a material chance that one major US automaker will fail, Ford and GM are both in pretty terrible shape.
There are some real bargains
Agreed, but you forgot the other major US automaker who is in far more trouble than either Ford or GM. Has no Global footprint, most of their technology development was discarded by their previous parent company, has little in the pipeline for new products. I could also make the argument of the three major US automakers GM is in the best position.
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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Jeremy K
Mar 15, 08 11:18
Post #58 of 106 (624 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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Most companies that are in good shape decide to just shut down for a few weeks at a time, right?
DavHamm
Mar 15, 08 12:10
Post #59 of 106 (620 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [Jeremy K]
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Most companies that are in good shape decide to just shut down for a few weeks at a time, right?
I'm not sure what your referring to as I implied. Chrysler is in the worst shape of any of the Big 3. That being said, the 2 week shutdown is nothing new. The only thing Chrysler did was move it to a common 2 weeks. The media is making a bigger deal of it then it is. Ford and GM have had a common 2 week shutdown for many years.
Oh its not really a shutdown either. It is the 2 weeks when the plants do all the maintenance, change the tooling and lines for the start of the new model year builds. So for some folks its the busiest 2 weeks of the year.
Again, further reason to understand an industry before you invest in it.
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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
(This post was
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Jeremy K
Mar 15, 08 18:12
Post #60 of 106 (613 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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Well you're right that I know little about the industry. Although I made a little money off of TM earlier this year, and have also been watching GM, F, and HMC. I didn't know that all auto makers do the 2-week thing either. Why is the media paying so much attention to Chrysler announcing this?
Flanagan
Mar 18, 08 16:13
Post #61 of 106 (582 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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Did you go all in for GM in your 401K like you said you would? Big pop today.
Regarding this game, I'm done with the investopedia site...too slow. If the market has a bad year, then my account will do well, if it keeps going up, then I will finish last, as pretty much everything is short.
2009 Goals: Cat 1 for Road Cycling, Pro Triathlon
Here's My Blog...
DavHamm
Mar 18, 08 19:47
Post #62 of 106 (580 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [Flanagan]
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No, do to the 20 min delay, when I last looked it was in its rally up of course in the last half hour it dropped by about 0.5 pt. Thats ok, I think (I hope) it will be back there. Credit rating being reviewed, Ford appears to not gotten anywhere near the number of buyouts they were hoping for (2k wanted 10K). Does not hold well for GM's buyouts.
Time will tell.
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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
kdw
Mar 18, 08 20:14
Post #63 of 106 (576 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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What was the winning total in round 1? I need something to keep it interesting...
DavHamm
Mar 19, 08 5:40
Post #64 of 106 (570 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [kdw]
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What was the winning total in round 1? I need something to keep it interesting...
Go to all cash and sit on it.... You have won...
Last years winner was at about 53%. BUT with this website most are not actively trading so the results may very...
Find my post on round 2 at the VSE site (the website of last years game) lets see what you can do with out Shorting a company just before they basically go bust.... Nice move though.
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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
(This post was
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kdw
Mar 19, 08 7:09
Post #65 of 106 (562 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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"lets see what you can do with out Shorting a company just before they basically go bust...."
To be fair, I'd still be up $25K even without the BSC short...
Flanagan
Mar 19, 08 7:30
Post #66 of 106 (561 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [kdw]
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"lets see what you can do with out Shorting a company just before they basically go bust...."
To be fair, I'd still be up $25K even without the BSC short...
To be even more fair, we all had the same chance to short BSC. If the shit didn't end up hitting the fan, and BSC also announced positive earnings yesterday, then it could have been ugly. As you know, in trading you can't ignore the statistical outliers in your portfolio, because those can be the ones with a huge impact on the portfolio.
2009 Goals: Cat 1 for Road Cycling, Pro Triathlon
Here's My Blog...
Jeremy K
Mar 19, 08 8:57
Post #67 of 106 (554 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [kdw]
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Did you put any real cash on the BSC bet?
kdw
Mar 19, 08 9:47
Post #68 of 106 (548 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [Jeremy K]
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"Did you put any real cash on the BSC bet?"
Of course not...If I had BSC would have no doubt doubled rather than crashed...
I would need to get the account approved for margin trading, and started to fill out the form last week but got sidetracked.
DavHamm
Apr 14, 08 15:31
Post #69 of 106 (490 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [kdw]
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Your slipping down to just over 35% not looking unbeatable anymore.
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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
IAMike
Apr 14, 08 15:52
Post #70 of 106 (487 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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Bear Stearns giveth, and Bear Stearns taketh away.
kdw
Apr 14, 08 16:10
Post #71 of 106 (486 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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All you need is for Ford to go to $10/share and you will be right there nipping at my heels. There is a job in my mailroom for you whenever you want it ;-)
jtaylor1O24
Apr 14, 08 16:38
Post #72 of 106 (481 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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Did you guys abandon the VSE game? Sure I'm up 25% and I'm playing the wrong darn game?
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Don't hold back
JT
Reduce your carbon footprint - burn less stuff,
http://www.carbonfund.org
Don't complain, just work harder. - Randy Pausch
DavHamm
Apr 14, 08 16:50
Post #73 of 106 (478 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [jtaylor1O24]
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Did you guys abandon the VSE game? Sure I'm up 25% and I'm playing the wrong darn game?
Heck no, I just checked in here to see how it was going.... Uhm im in second how did that happen.
JT don't worry as fast as you went up, you will go down.
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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
jtaylor1O24
Apr 14, 08 18:32
Post #74 of 106 (472 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [DavHamm]
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JT don't worry as fast as you went up, you will go down.
Nah, what could go wrong? ;)
----
Don't hold back
JT
Reduce your carbon footprint - burn less stuff,
http://www.carbonfund.org
Don't complain, just work harder. - Randy Pausch
DavHamm
Apr 30, 08 2:56
Post #75 of 106 (424 views)
Re: Slowtwitch Investment Challenge round 2 [jtaylor1O24]
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Did you guys abandon the VSE game? Sure I'm up 25% and I'm playing the wrong darn game?
Damn, JT were did you go?... KDW that 45% has dwindled to less than 30% and I am knocking on 1st place again...
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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
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